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Abstract Background Diphtheria is a re-emerging infectious disease and public health concern worldwide and in Vietnam with increasing cases in recent years. This study aimed to assess the anti-diphtheria toxoid antibodies status in Khanh Hoa Province and identify factors contributing to the vaccination policy in the south-central coast of Vietnam. Methods This was a cross-sectional study to evaluate the seroprevalence of anti-diphtheria toxoid antibodies among 1,195 participants, aged 5 – 40 years in Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam. Immunoglobulin G antibody levels against diphtheria were detected using a commercial anti-diphtheria toxoid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (SERION ELISA classic Diphtheria Immunoglobulin G) and were categorized following the World Health Organization guidelines. Results The mean anti-diphtheria toxoid antibody levels were 0.07 IU/ml (95% Confidence Interval: 0.07–0.08). Anti-diphtheria toxoid antibody levels were found to be associated with age and history of diphtheria vaccination. The 5–15 years age group had the highest levels (0.09 IU/ml), while the older age group had the lowest antibody level (p

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus (genus Alphavirus, family Togaviridae) that is primarily transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, and can be transmitted from mother to child. Little is known about CHIKV transmission in Vietnam, where dengue is endemic and Aedes mosquitoes are abundant. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and characteristics of vertical CHIKV infection in a birth cohort, and seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV antibodies with or without confirmation by neutralization tests among women bearing children in Vietnam. Methods: We collected umbilical cord blood plasma samples from each newly delivered baby in Nha Trang, Central Vietnam, between July 2017 and September 2018. Samples were subjected to molecular assay (quantitative real-time RT-PCR) and serological tests (anti-CHIKV IgM capture and IgG indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and neutralization tests). Results: Of the 2012 tested cord blood samples from newly delivered babies, the CHIKV viral genome was detected in 6 (0.3%) samples by RT-PCR, whereas, 15 samples (0.7%) were anti-CHIKV-IgM positive. Overall, 18 (0.9%, 95% CI: 0.6–1.5) samples, including three positives for both CHIKV IgM and viral genome on RT-PCR, were regarded as vertical transmission of CHIKV infection. Of the 2012 cord blood samples, 10 (0.5%, 95% CI: 0.2–0.9) were positive for both anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG. Twenty-nine (1.4%, 95% CI: 1.0–2.1) were seropositive for anti-CHIKV IgG while 26 (1.3%, 95% CI: 0.8–1.9) of them were also positive for neutralizing antibodies, and regarded as seropositive with neutralization against CHIKV infection. Conclusion: This is the first report of a possible CHIKV maternal-neonatal infection in a birth cohort in Vietnam. The findings indicate that follow-up and a differential diagnosis of CHIKV infection in pregnant women are needed to clarify the potential for CHIKV vertical transmission and its impact in the newborn.

Abstract Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) can cause severe acute respiratory infection (ARI). We aimed to clarify the clinical and molecular epidemiological features of hMPV. We conducted an ARI surveillance targeting hospitalized children aged 1 month to 14 years in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for respiratory viruses with PCR. We described the clinical characteristics of hMPV patients in comparison with those with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and those with neither RSV nor hMPV, and among different hMPV genotypes. Among 8822 patients, 278 (3.2%) were hMPV positive, with a median age of 21.0 months (interquartile range: 12.7–32.5). Among single virus-positive patients, hMPV cases were older than patients with RSV (p

Background: Inference on pneumococcal transmission has mostly relied on longitudinal studies which are costly and resource intensive. Therefore, we conducted a pilot study to test the ability to infer who infected whom from cross-sectional pneumococcal sequences using phylogenetic inference. Methods: Five suspected transmission pairs, for which there was epidemiological evidence of who infected whom, were selected from a household study. For each pair, Streptococcus pneumoniae full genomes were sequenced from nasopharyngeal swabs collected on the same day. The within-host genetic diversity of the pneumococcal population was used to infer the transmission direction and then cross-validated with the direction suggested by the epidemiological records. Results: The pneumococcal genomes clustered into the five households from which the samples were taken. The proportion of concordantly inferred transmission direction generally increased with increasing minimum genome fragment size and single nucleotide polymorphisms. We observed a larger proportion of unique polymorphic sites in the source bacterial population compared to that of the recipient in four of the five pairs, as expected in the case of a transmission bottleneck. The only pair that did not exhibit this effect was also the pair that had consistent discordant transmission direction compared to the epidemiological records suggesting potential misdirection as a result of false-negative sampling. Conclusions: This pilot provided support for further studies to test if the direction of pneumococcal transmission can be reliably inferred from cross-sectional samples if sequenced with sufficient depth and fragment length.

In 2019, a community-based, cross-sectional carriage survey and a seroprevalence survey of 1,216 persons 1–55 years of age were conducted in rural Vietnam to investigate the mechanism of diphtheria outbreaks. Seroprevalence was further compared with that of an urban area that had no cases reported for the past decade. Carriage prevalence was 1.4%. The highest prevalence, 4.5%, was observed for children 1–5 years of age. Twenty-seven asymptomatic Coerynebacterium diphtheriae carriers were identified; 9 carriers had tox gene–bearing strains, and 3 had nontoxigenic tox gene–bearing strains. Child malnutrition was associated with low levels of diphtheria toxoid IgG, which might have subsequently increased child carriage prevalence. Different immunity patterns in the 2 populations suggested that the low immunity among children caused by low vaccination coverage increased transmission, resulting in symptomatic infections at school-going age, when vaccine-induced immunity waned most. A school-entry booster dose and improved infant vaccination coverage are recommended to control transmissions.

Introduction: The WHO currently recommends giving pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) as three doses – either three doses in infancy with Pentavalent vaccine (3p+0), or two doses in infancy followed by a booster around 12 months (2p+1). However, their high price is a barrier to introduction and sustainability in low and middle-income countries. We hypothesize that a schedule with a single priming and a booster dose (1p+1) may maintain similar levels of protection for the community by sustaining herd immunity, once circulation of vaccine types has been controlled. Methods and analysis: We will conduct a cluster randomized trial with four intervention arms (1p+1, 0p+1, 2p+1, 3p+0) and three unvaccinated clusters in the 27 communes of Nha Trang, central Vietnam. A PCV catch-up vaccination campaign to all children under three years of age will be performed at the start of the trial. The primary endpoint is non-inferiority of the1p+1 schedule if compared to the WHO standard 2p+1 and 3p+0 schedules in reducing vaccine serotype carriage prevalence in infants. We will also explore impact of 0p+1 schedule. A baseline and annual pneumococcal carriage surveys of 6480 participants per survey covering infants, toddlers and their mothers will be conducted. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approvals were obtained from the ethical review committees of Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University (151203149-2) and the Ministry of Health, Vietnam (1915/QD-BYT). The results, interpretation and conclusions will be presented at national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed open access journals. Trial registration number: NCT02961231

ABSTRACT Multidrug-resistant Vibrio cholerae O1 strains have long been observed in Africa, and strains exhibiting new resistance phenotypes have emerged during recent epidemics in Kenya. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological aspects, drug resistance patterns, and genetic elements of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from two cholera epidemics in Kenya between 2007 and 2010 and between 2015 and 2016. A total of 228 V. cholerae O1 strains, including 226 clinical strains isolated from 13 counties in Kenya during the 2007–2010 and 2015–2016 cholera epidemics and two environmental isolates (from shallow well water and spring water isolates) isolated from Pokot and Kwale Counties, respectively, in 2010 were subjected to biotyping, serotyping, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing, including the detection of antibiotic resistance genes and mobile genetic elements. All V. cholerae isolates were identified as El Tor biotypes and susceptible to ceftriaxone, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin. The majority of isolates were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (94.6%), streptomycin (92.8%), and nalidixic acid (64.5%), while lower resistance was observed against ampicillin (3.6%), amoxicillin (4.2%), chloramphenicol (3.0%), and doxycycline (1.8%). Concurrently, the integrating conjugative (SXT) element was found in 95.5% of the V. cholerae isolates; conversely, class 1, 2, and 3 integrons were absent. Additionally, 64.5% of the isolates exhibited multidrug resistance patterns. Antibiotic-resistant gene clusters suggest that environmental bacteria may act as cassette reservoirs that favor resistant pathogens. On the other hand, the 2015–2016 epidemic strains were found susceptible to most antibiotics except nalidixic acid. This revealed the replacement of multidrug-resistant strains exhibiting new resistance phenotypes that emerged after Kenya's 2007–2010 epidemic. IMPORTANCE Kenya is a country where cholera is endemic; it has experienced three substantial epidemics over the past few decades, but there are limited data on the drug resistance patterns of V. cholerae at the national level. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from two consecutive epidemics and to examine their associated antimicrobial genetic determinants. Our study results revealed two distinct antibiotic resistance trends in two separate epidemics, particularly trends for multidrug-associated mobile genetic elements and chromosomal mutation-oriented resistant strains from the 2007–2010 epidemic. In contrast, only nalidixic acid-associated chromosomal mutated strains were isolated from the 2015–2016 epidemic. This study also found similar patterns of antibiotic resistance in environmental and clinical strains. Continuous monitoring is needed to control emerging multidrug-resistant isolates in the future.

BackgroundExtended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) is a great public health concern globally not only in hospitals but also in the community. To our knowledge, there have been few studies on the prevalence of ESBL-E and much less about carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) among children in the community, and there is no such study in Japan despite such situations. This study aimed to clarify their carriage status among Japanese infants in the community by taking the opportunity of the 4-month health checkup.MethodsThis prospective analysis was conducted from April 2020 to March 2021 in Shimabara City, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. The research-related items were mailed to all subjects with official documents for the checkup. The fecal samples were obtained from the diaper by guardians beforehand and were collected with the questionnaire and then screened for ESBL-E and CRE by a clinical laboratory company with selective agars followed by identification and confirmation. Only the positive samples were analyzed about resistant genotypes.ResultsOne hundred fifty infants aged 4–5 months, over half of the subjects, participated in this study. The overall ESBL-E carriage rate was 19.3% (n = 29), and no CRE carrier was detected among them. All identified ESBL-E were E. coli except for one K. pneumoniae. A significantly higher carriage rate was recorded among the infants born at “Hospital A” (25.0%) than the others (11.3%). Enterobacterales producing CTX-M-9 ± TEM were broadly distributed among the positive samples (65.5%), whereas the CTX-M-1 group was exclusively detected among those from “Hospital A”. Recursive partitioning analysis suggested that delivery facilities might be an important factor for ESBL-E colonization, although the effect could be decreased as they grow. In contrast, no significant effect was observed for other factors such as parent(s) as healthcare worker(s), having a sibling(s), and the mode of delivery.ConclusionThis study revealed the ESBL-E and CRE carriage status of Japanese infants in the community for the first time, although the setting is somewhat limited. Our findings indicated that environmental factors, especially delivery facilities, influenced ESBL-E colonization among infants aged 4–5 months, implying the need for strengthening countermeasures against antimicrobial resistance at delivery facilities and communities outside the hospitals.

The underestimation of the pertussis burden prompted our study to investigate the prevalence of recent pertussis infection, its associated factors, and antibody titer changes in the same individuals in Vietnam. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Nha Trang in 2017 and Quang Ngai in 2019, representing high- and low-vaccine-coverage areas, respectively. Serum anti-pertussis toxin immunoglobulin-G (anti-PT IgG) ≥ 62.5 IU/mL by ELISA indicated infection in the previous 12 months. In Nha Trang, the participants of the 2017 survey were followed up in 2019. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds ratios for the characteristics associated with anti-PT IgG ≥ 62.5. The age-stratified prevalence in patients aged >2 years ranged from 2.1% (age 26–35) to 9.6% (3–5) in Nha Trang (2017) and from 7.2% (age 26–35) to 11.4% (6–15) in Quang Ngai. The prevalence tended to be higher in Quang Ngai across all age groups. Cough, recent antibiotic use, and smoking in Nha Trang were positively associated with an anti-PT IgG of ≥62.5, and having been diagnosed with pertussis and persistent cough with paroxysms/whoop in Quang Ngai were positively associated with an anti-PT IgG of ≥62.5. No nasopharyngeal swabs were positive for Bordetella pertussis using real-time PCR. The geometric mean of the IgG titer ratio from 2019 to 2017 was 1.45 in the paired samples. This study emphasizes Bordetella pertussis circulation across all age groups in both low- and high-vaccine-coverage settings in Vietnam, underscoring the need for continuous and standardized surveillance for a comprehensive understanding of its epidemiology.

Abstract Background The prevalence of virus positivity in the upper respiratory tract of asymptomatic community-dwelling older people remains elusive. Our objective was to investigate the prevalence of respiratory virus PCR positivity in asymptomatic community-dwelling older people using saliva samples and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Methods We analyzed 504 community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 65 years who were ambulatory and enrolled in a cross-sectional study conducted from February to December 2018 in Nagasaki city, Japan. Fourteen respiratory viruses were identified in saliva, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal samples using multiplex PCR assays. Results The prevalences of PCR positivity for rhinovirus, influenza A, enterovirus and any respiratory virus were 12.9% (95% CI: 10.1–16.1%), 7.1% (95% CI: 5.1–9.8%), 6.9% (95% CI: 4.9–9.5%) and 25.2% (95% CI: 21.5–29.2%), respectively. Rhinovirus was detected in 21.5% of subjects, influenza A in 38.9% of subjects, enterovirus in 51.4% of subjects and any virus in 32.3% of subjects using only saliva sampling. Conclusions The prevalences of several respiratory viruses were higher than the percentages reported previously in pharyngeal samples from younger adults. Saliva sampling is a potentially useful method for respiratory virus detection in asymptomatic populations.

Background: Diphtheria cases reported in Central Vietnam since 2013 were mainly in children aged 6-15 years, which may reflect an immunity gap. There is little information on population immunity against diphtheria in countries without a school-entry booster dose. We aimed to measure the age-stratified seroprevalence of anti-diphtheria toxoid antibodies, quantify the change in antibody levels in individuals over time, and estimate the length of protective immunity after vaccination in well-vaccinated communities in Vietnam.Methods: An age-stratified seroprevalence survey among individuals aged 0-55 years was conducted at Nha Trang, Vietnam. The same participants were followed up after two years to quantify the change in antibody levels. IgG was measured using ELISA. The length of protective immunity after vaccination was estimated using a mixed-effect linear regression model with random intercept.Results: Overall seroprevalence was 26% (95%CI:20-32%). Age-stratified seroprevalence was 68% (95%CI:4-11%), 7% (95%CI:4-11%), 12% (95%CI:7-19%), 33% (95%CI:27-40%), and 28% (95%CI:17-43%) among those aged ≤5, 6-15,16-25, 26-35, and 36-55 years, respectively. The antibody levels declined by 47% (95%CI:31-59%) over two years, and the predicted duration of vaccine-derived protective immunity after receiving four doses was 4.3 years (95%CI:3.5–5.3) among participants aged six years or younger.Conclusion: Given the low seroprevalence and short period of vaccine protection, a school-entry booster dose (5-7 years) is recommended in Vietnam.

We assessed the development, sensory status, and brain structure of children with congenital Zika virus (ZIKV) infection (CZI) at two years and preschool age. CZI was defined as either ZIKV RNA detection or positive ZIKV IgM and neutralization test in the cord or neonatal blood. Twelve children with CZI born in 2017–2018 in Vietnam, including one with Down syndrome, were assessed at 23–25.5 months of age, using Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ-3), ASQ:Social-Emotional (ASQ:SE-2), Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, automated auditory brainstem response (AABR), and Spot Vision Screener (SVS). They underwent brain CT and MRI. They had detailed ophthalmological examinations, ASQ-3, and ASQ:SE-2 at 51–62 months of age. None had birthweight or head circumference z-score < −3 except for the one with Down syndrome. All tests passed AABR (n = 10). No ophthalmological problems were detected by SVS (n = 10) and detailed examinations (n = 6), except for a girl’s astigmatism. Communication and problem-solving domains in a boy at 24 months, gross-motor area in a boy, and gross-motor and fine-motor areas in another boy at 59–61 months were in the referral zone. Brain CT (n = 8) and MRI (n = 6) revealed no abnormalities in the cerebrum, cerebellum, or brainstem other than cerebellar hypoplasia with Down syndrome. The CZI children were almost age-appropriately developed with no brain or eye abnormalities. Careful and longer follow-up is necessary for children with CZI.

Although the burden of diphtheria has declined greatly since the introduction of vaccines, sporadic outbreaks continue to be reported. WHO recommends booster doses after a primary series, but questions remain about the optimal interval between these doses. We conducted a systematic review and quantitative data analysis to quantify the duration of protective immunity after different numbers of doses. Fifteen cross-sectional seroprevalence studies provided data on geometric mean concentration (GMC). Single-year age-stratified GMCs were analyzed using a mixed-effect linear regression model with a random intercept incorporating the between-country variability. GMC was estimated to decline to 0.1 IU/ml in 2.5 years (95% CI: 0.9–4.0), 10.3 years (95% CI: 7.1–13.6), and 25.1 years (95% CI: 7.6–42.6) after receiving three, four and five doses, respectively. The results drawn from cross-sectional data collected in countries with different epidemiologies, vaccines, and schedules had several limitations. However, these analyses contribute to the discussion of optimal timing between booster doses of diphtheria toxoid-containing vaccine.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the major bacterial pathogen causing high pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children S. pneumoniae detected among hospitalized pediatric ARI cases at Khanh Hoa General Hospital, Nha Trang, Vietnam, from October 2015 to September 2016 (pre-PCV). We performed semi-quantitative culture to isolate S. pneumoniae. Serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, resistance gene detection and multi-locus sequence typing were also performed. During the study period, 1300 cases were enrolled and 413 (31.8%) S. pneumoniae were isolated. School attendance, age S. pneumoniae isolation. Major serotypes were 6A/B (35.9%), 19F (23.7%) and 23F (12.7%), which accounted for 80.3% of vaccine-type pneumococci. High resistance to Clarithromycin, Erythromycin and Clindamycin (86.7%, 85%, 78.2%) and the mutant drug-resistant genes pbp1A (98.1%), pbp2b (98.8%), pbp2x (99.6%) ermB (96.6%) and mefA (30.3%) were detected. MLST data showed high genetic diversity among the isolates with dominant ST 320 (21.2%) and ST 13223 (19.3%), which were mainly found in Vietnam. Non-typeables accounted for most of the new STs found in the study. Vaccine-type pneumococcus and macrolide resistance were commonly detected among hospitalized pediatric ARI cases.

BackgroundCharacterising dengue virus (DENV) infection history at the point of care is challenging as it relies on intensive laboratory techniques. We investigated how combining different rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can be used to accurately determine the primary and post-primary DENV immune status of reporting patients during diagnosis.Methods and findingsSerum from cross-sectional surveys of acute suspected dengue patients in Indonesia (N:200) and Vietnam (N: 1,217) were assayed using dengue laboratory assays and RDTs. Using logistic regression modelling, we determined the probability of being DENV NS1, IgM and IgG RDT positive according to corresponding laboratory viremia, IgM and IgG ELISA metrics. Laboratory test thresholds for RDT positivity/negativity were calculated using Youden's J index and were utilized to estimate the RDT outcomes in patients from the Philippines, where only data for viremia, IgM and IgG were available (N:28,326). Lastly, the probabilities of being primary or post-primary according to every outcome using all RDTs, by day of fever, were calculated. Combining NS1, IgM and IgG RDTs captured 94.6% (52/55) and 95.4% (104/109) of laboratory-confirmed primary and post-primary DENV cases, respectively, during the first 5 days of fever. Laboratory test predicted, and actual, RDT outcomes had high agreement (79.5% (159/200)). Among patients from the Philippines, different combinations of estimated RDT outcomes were indicative of post-primary and primary immune status. Overall, IgG RDT positive results were confirmatory of post-primary infections. In contrast, IgG RDT negative results were suggestive of both primary and post-primary infections on days 1-2 of fever, yet were confirmatory of primary infections on days 3-5 of fever.ConclusionWe demonstrate how the primary and post-primary DENV immune status of reporting patients can be estimated at the point of care by combining NS1, IgM and IgG RDTs and considering the days since symptoms onset. This framework has the potential to strengthen surveillance operations and dengue prognosis, particularly in low resource settings.

The Infant Behavior Questionnaire-Revised (IBQ-R) assesses the temperament of infants in Western and non-Western countries. Although its factor analyses revealed three factors—surgency, negative affectivity, and effortful control—in the Western culture, the degree to which these are universal or culturally specific is unclear. This study developed a Vietnamese version of the IBQ-Revised Very Short Form (R-VSF) and examined its factor structure in a Vietnamese population. The Vietnamese IBQ-R VSF was administered to 292 mothers of infants between the ages of 3 and 18 months in Nha Trang city, Vietnam, between July and September 2019. After deleting items to achieve sufficient Cronbach’s alphas for each scale (surgency, negative affectivity, and orienting/regulation), the remaining 28 items were aggregated to parcels subjected to exploratory factor analyses (EFAs). EFAs revealed a 3-factor model corresponding to the original theory, and confirmatory factor analyses indicated a good fit of this structural model. The final 3-factor model with parcels indicated measurement and structural invariance between mothers of boys and girls.

Background: Extended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) is a great public health concern globally not only in hospitals but also in the community. To our knowledge, there have been few studies on the prevalence of ESBL-E and much less about carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) among children in the community, and there is no such study in Japan despite such situations. This study aimed to clarify their carriage status among Japanese infants in the community by taking the opportunity of the 4-month health checkup. Methods: This prospective analysis was conducted from April 2020 to March 2021 in Shimabara City, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. The research-related items were mailed to all subjects with official documents for the checkup. The fecal samples were obtained from the diaper by guardians beforehand and were collected with the questionnaire and then screened for ESBL-E and CRE by a clinical laboratory company with selective agars followed by identification and confirmation. Only the positive samples were analyzed about resistant genotypes. Results: One hundred fifty infants aged 4–5 months, over half of the subjects, participated in this study. The overall ESBL-E carriage rate was 19.3% (n = 29), and no CRE carrier was detected among them. All identified ESBL-E were E. coli except for one K. pneumoniae. A significantly higher carriage rate was recorded among the infants born at “Hospital A” (25.0%) than the others (11.3%). Enterobacterales producing CTX-M-9 ± TEM were broadly distributed among the positive samples (65.5%), whereas the CTX-M-1 group was exclusively detected among those from “Hospital A”. Recursive partitioning analysis suggested that delivery facilities might be an important factor for ESBL-E colonization, although the effect could be decreased as they grow. In contrast, no significant effect was observed for other factors such as parent(s) as healthcare worker(s), having a sibling(s), and the mode of delivery. Conclusion: This study revealed the ESBL-E and CRE carriage status of Japanese infants in the community for the first time, although the setting is somewhat limited. Our findings indicated that environmental factors, especially delivery facilities, influenced ESBL-E colonization among infants aged 4–5 months, implying the need for strengthening countermeasures against antimicrobial resistance at delivery facilities and communities outside the hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic drugs against dengue are currently under development. In this study, we explored how such prophylactic approaches might affect dengue cases in four communes of Nha Trang City, Vietnam. A community level dengue transmission survey indicated high levels of previous exposure to dengue (89.7%; 95% CI: 87.2,92.0). We fitted a spatially explicit model to an observed outbreak and simulated likely effectiveness of Case-Area Targeted Interventions (CATI) and One-Time Mass Distribution (OTMD) of drug and vector control strategies. Increasing radius and effectiveness and decreasing delay of CATI was most effective, with drugs being more effective in averting dengue cases than vector control. Using an OTMD approach early in the outbreak required the least number of treatments to avert a case, suggesting that OTMD strategies should be considered as pre-emptive rather than reactive strategies. These findings show that pre-emptive interventions can substantially reduce the burden of dengue outbreaks in endemic settings.

BackgroundDespite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019.MethodsMonthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders.ResultsThe majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27).ConclusionWe have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.

Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) interact within their host posing the concern for impacts on heterologous viruses following vaccination. We aimed to estimate the population level impact of their interaction. We developed a dynamic age-stratified two-pathogen mathematical model that includes pathogen interaction through competition for infection and enhanced severity of dual infections. We used parallel tempering to fit its parameters to 11 years of enhanced hospital-based surveillance for acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) in children under 5 years old in Nha Trang, Vietnam. The data supported either a 41% (95%CrI: 36-54) reduction in susceptibility following infection and for 10.0 days (95%CrI 7.1-12.8) thereafter, or no change in susceptibility following infection. We estimate that co-infection increased the probability for an infection in