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We investigate searching efficiency of different kinds of random walk on complex networks which rely on local information and one-step memory. For the studied navigation strategies we obtained theoretical and numerical values for the graph mean first passage times as an indicator for the searching efficiency. The experiments with generated and real networks show that biasing based on inverse degree, persistence and local two-hop paths can lead to smaller searching times. Moreover, these biasing approaches can be combined to achieve a more robust random search strategy. Our findings can be applied in the modeling and solution of various real-world problems., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, conference

Statistical models for predicting lung cancer have the potential to facilitate earlier diagnosis of malignancy and avoid invasive workup of benign disease. Many models have been published, but comparative studies of their utility in different clinical settings in which patients would arguably most benefit are scarce. This study retrospectively evaluated promising predictive models for lung cancer prediction in three clinical settings: lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography, incidentally detected pulmonary nodules, and nodules deemed suspicious enough to warrant a biopsy. We leveraged 9 cohorts (n=898, 896, 882, 219, 364, 117, 131, 115, 373) from multiple institutions to assess the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of validated models including logistic regressions on clinical variables and radiologist nodule characterizations, artificial intelligence on chest CTs, longitudinal imaging AI, and multi-modal approaches. We implemented each model from their published literature, re-training the models if necessary, and curated each cohort from primary data sources. We observed that model performance varied greatly across clinical use cases. No single predictive model emerged as a clear winner across all cohorts, but certain models excelled in specific clinical contexts. Single timepoint chest CT AI performed well in lung screening, but struggled to generalize to other clinical settings. Longitudinal imaging and multimodal models demonstrated comparatively promising performance on incidentally-detected nodules. However, when applied to nodules that underwent biopsy, all models underperformed. These results underscore the strengths and limitations of 8 validated predictive models and highlight promising directions towards personalized, noninvasive lung cancer diagnosis., Comment: Submitted to Radiology: AI

We develop Polaris, the first safety-focused LLM constellation for real-time patient-AI healthcare conversations. Unlike prior LLM works in healthcare focusing on tasks like question answering, our work specifically focuses on long multi-turn voice conversations. Our one-trillion parameter constellation system is composed of several multibillion parameter LLMs as co-operative agents: a stateful primary agent that focuses on driving an engaging conversation and several specialist support agents focused on healthcare tasks performed by nurses to increase safety and reduce hallucinations. We develop a sophisticated training protocol for iterative co-training of the agents that optimize for diverse objectives. We train our models on proprietary data, clinical care plans, healthcare regulatory documents, medical manuals, and other medical reasoning documents. We align our models to speak like medical professionals, using organic healthcare conversations and simulated ones between patient actors and experienced nurses. This allows our system to express unique capabilities such as rapport building, trust building, empathy and bedside manner. Finally, we present the first comprehensive clinician evaluation of an LLM system for healthcare. We recruited over 1100 U.S. licensed nurses and over 130 U.S. licensed physicians to perform end-to-end conversational evaluations of our system by posing as patients and rating the system on several measures. We demonstrate Polaris performs on par with human nurses on aggregate across dimensions such as medical safety, clinical readiness, conversational quality, and bedside manner. Additionally, we conduct a challenging task-based evaluation of the individual specialist support agents, where we demonstrate our LLM agents significantly outperform a much larger general-purpose LLM (GPT-4) as well as from its own medium-size class (LLaMA-2 70B).

Insufficiently precise diagnosis of clinical disease is likely responsible for many treatment failures, even for common conditions and treatments. With a large enough dataset, it may be possible to use unsupervised machine learning to define clinical disease patterns more precisely. We present an approach to learning these patterns by using probabilistic independence to disentangle the imprint on the medical record of causal latent sources of disease. We inferred a broad set of 2000 clinical signatures of latent sources from 9195 variables in 269,099 Electronic Health Records. The learned signatures produced better discrimination than the original variables in a lung cancer prediction task unknown to the inference algorithm, predicting 3-year malignancy in patients with no history of cancer before a solitary lung nodule was discovered. More importantly, the signatures' greater explanatory power identified pre-nodule signatures of apparently undiagnosed cancer in many of those patients., Comment: 29 Pages, 8 figures

The rising popularity of artificial intelligence in healthcare is highlighting the problem that a computational model achieving super-human clinical performance at its training sites may perform substantially worse at new sites. In this perspective, we present common sources for this failure to transport, which we divide into sources under the control of the experimenter and sources inherent to the clinical data-generating process. Of the inherent sources we look a little deeper into site-specific clinical practices that can affect the data distribution, and propose a potential solution intended to isolate the imprint of those practices on the data from the patterns of disease cause and effect that are the usual target of probabilistic clinical models., Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures

Context. Solar coronal jets seen in EUV are ubiquitous on the Sun, have been found in and at the edges of active regions, at the boundaries of coronal holes, and in the quiet Sun. Jets have various shapes, sizes, brightness, velocities and duration in time, which complicates their detection by automated algorithms. So far, solar jets reported in the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) have been mostly reported by humans looking for them in the data, with different levels of precision regarding their timing and positions. Aims. We create a catalogue of solar jets observed in EUV at 304 {\AA} containing precise and consistent information on the jet timing, position and extent. Methods. We designed a citizen science project, "Solar Jet Hunter", on the Zooniverse platform, to analyze EUV observations at 304 {\AA} from the Solar Dynamic Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). We created movie strips for regions of the Sun in which jets have been reported in HEK and ask the volunteers to 1) confirm the presence of at least one jet in the data and 2) report the timing, position and extent of the jet. Results. We report here the design of the project and the results obtained after the analysis of data from 2011 to 2016. 365 "coronal jet" events from HEK served as input for the citizen science project, equivalent to more than 120,000 images distributed into 9,689 "movie strips". Classification by the citizen scientists resulted with only 21% of the data containing a jet, and 883 individual jets being identified. Conclusions. We demonstrate how citizen science can enhance the analysis of solar data with the example of Solar Jet Hunter. The catalogue of jets thus created is publicly available and will enable statistical studies of jets and related phenomena. This catalogue will also be used as a training set for machines to learn to recognize jets in further data sets.

All lens modeling methods, simply-parametrized, hybrid, and free-form, use assumptions to reconstruct galaxy clusters with multiply imaged sources, though the nature of these assumptions (priors) can differ considerably between methods. This raises an important question in strong lens modeling: how much information about the mass model comes from the lensed images themselves, and how much is a consequence of model priors. One way to assess the relative contributions of the lensing data vs. model priors is to estimate global lens properties through images alone, without any prior assumptions about the mass distribution. This is our approach. We use 200 mock cluster lenses, half of which have substructures which vary from clumpy and compact to smooth and extended; a simulated cluster Ares; and real clusters Abell 1689 and RXJ1347.5-1145 to show that the center, ellipticity, and position angle can be estimated quite well, and nearly perfectly for weakly substructured clusters, implying that the recovery of these properties is largely driven by the images, not priors. However, the correlation between the true and image-estimated amount of substructure has a lot of scatter, suggesting that multiple images do not uniquely constrain substructure. Therefore in general, lens model priors have a stronger effect on smaller scales. Our analysis partly explains why reconstructions using different methodologies can produce qualitatively different mass maps on substructure scales. Our analysis is not meant to aide or replace lens inversion methods, but only to investigate what cluster properties are constrained with multiple images., Comment: 16 Pages, 14, MNRAS

The accuracy of predictive models for solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) diagnosis can be greatly increased by incorporating repeat imaging and medical context, such as electronic health records (EHRs). However, clinically routine modalities such as imaging and diagnostic codes can be asynchronous and irregularly sampled over different time scales which are obstacles to longitudinal multimodal learning. In this work, we propose a transformer-based multimodal strategy to integrate repeat imaging with longitudinal clinical signatures from routinely collected EHRs for SPN classification. We perform unsupervised disentanglement of latent clinical signatures and leverage time-distance scaled self-attention to jointly learn from clinical signatures expressions and chest computed tomography (CT) scans. Our classifier is pretrained on 2,668 scans from a public dataset and 1,149 subjects with longitudinal chest CTs, billing codes, medications, and laboratory tests from EHRs of our home institution. Evaluation on 227 subjects with challenging SPNs revealed a significant AUC improvement over a longitudinal multimodal baseline (0.824 vs 0.752 AUC), as well as improvements over a single cross-section multimodal scenario (0.809 AUC) and a longitudinal imaging-only scenario (0.741 AUC). This work demonstrates significant advantages with a novel approach for co-learning longitudinal imaging and non-imaging phenotypes with transformers. Code available at https://github.com/MASILab/lmsignatures., Comment: Accepted to MICCAI 2023

Experimental information on fragment emissions is important in understanding the dynamics of nuclear collisions and in the development of transport model simulating heavy-ion collisions. The composition of complex fragments emitted in the heavy-ion collisions can be explained by statistical models, which assume that thermal equilibrium is achieved at collision energies below 100 MeV/u. Our new experimental data together with theoretical analyses for light particles from Sn+Sn collisions at 270 MeV/u, suggest that the hypothesis of thermal equilibrium breaks down for particles emitted with high transfer momentum. To inspect the system's properties in such limit, the scaling features of the yield ratios of particles from two systems, a neutron-rich system of ${}^{132}\mathrm{Sn}+{}^{124}\mathrm{Sn}$ and a nearly symmetric system of ${}^{108}\mathrm{Sn}+{}^{112}\mathrm{Sn}$, are examined in the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model and the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics model. The isoscaling from low energy particles agree with both models. However the observed breakdown of isoscaling for particles with high transverse momentum cannot be explained by the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics model.

Root causal analysis seeks to identify the set of initial perturbations that induce an unwanted outcome. In prior work, we defined sample-specific root causes of disease using exogenous error terms that predict a diagnosis in a structural equation model. We rigorously quantified predictivity using Shapley values. However, the associated algorithms for inferring root causes assume no latent confounding. We relax this assumption by permitting confounding among the predictors. We then introduce a corresponding procedure called Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) for recovering the error terms up to contamination by vertices on certain paths under the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model. EEL also identifies the smallest sets of dependent errors for fast computation of the Shapley values. The algorithm bypasses the hard problem of estimating the underlying causal graph in both cases. Experiments highlight the superior accuracy and robustness of EEL relative to its predecessors.

Transformer-based models, capable of learning better global dependencies, have recently demonstrated exceptional representation learning capabilities in computer vision and medical image analysis. Transformer reformats the image into separate patches and realizes global communication via the self-attention mechanism. However, positional information between patches is hard to preserve in such 1D sequences, and loss of it can lead to sub-optimal performance when dealing with large amounts of heterogeneous tissues of various sizes in 3D medical image segmentation. Additionally, current methods are not robust and efficient for heavy-duty medical segmentation tasks such as predicting a large number of tissue classes or modeling globally inter-connected tissue structures. To address such challenges and inspired by the nested hierarchical structures in vision transformer, we proposed a novel 3D medical image segmentation method (UNesT), employing a simplified and faster-converging transformer encoder design that achieves local communication among spatially adjacent patch sequences by aggregating them hierarchically. We extensively validate our method on multiple challenging datasets, consisting of multiple modalities, anatomies, and a wide range of tissue classes, including 133 structures in the brain, 14 organs in the abdomen, 4 hierarchical components in the kidneys, inter-connected kidney tumors and brain tumors. We show that UNesT consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance and evaluate its generalizability and data efficiency. Particularly, the model achieves whole brain segmentation task complete ROI with 133 tissue classes in a single network, outperforming prior state-of-the-art method SLANT27 ensembled with 27 networks., Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2203.02430

Features learned from single radiologic images are unable to provide information about whether and how much a lesion may be changing over time. Time-dependent features computed from repeated images can capture those changes and help identify malignant lesions by their temporal behavior. However, longitudinal medical imaging presents the unique challenge of sparse, irregular time intervals in data acquisition. While self-attention has been shown to be a versatile and efficient learning mechanism for time series and natural images, its potential for interpreting temporal distance between sparse, irregularly sampled spatial features has not been explored. In this work, we propose two interpretations of a time-distance vision transformer (ViT) by using (1) vector embeddings of continuous time and (2) a temporal emphasis model to scale self-attention weights. The two algorithms are evaluated based on benign versus malignant lung cancer discrimination of synthetic pulmonary nodules and lung screening computed tomography studies from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). Experiments evaluating the time-distance ViTs on synthetic nodules show a fundamental improvement in classifying irregularly sampled longitudinal images when compared to standard ViTs. In cross-validation on screening chest CTs from the NLST, our methods (0.785 and 0.786 AUC respectively) significantly outperform a cross-sectional approach (0.734 AUC) and match the discriminative performance of the leading longitudinal medical imaging algorithm (0.779 AUC) on benign versus malignant classification. This work represents the first self-attention-based framework for classifying longitudinal medical images. Our code is available at https://github.com/tom1193/time-distance-transformer., Comment: Summited to SPIE 2023 - Medical Imaging. 10 pages

Although deep learning prediction models have been successful in the discrimination of different classes, they can often suffer from poor calibration across challenging domains including healthcare. Moreover, the long-tail distribution poses great challenges in deep learning classification problems including clinical disease prediction. There are approaches proposed recently to calibrate deep prediction in computer vision, but there are no studies found to demonstrate how the representative models work in different challenging contexts. In this paper, we bridge the confidence calibration from computer vision to medical imaging with a comparative study of four high-impact calibration models. Our studies are conducted in different contexts (natural image classification and lung cancer risk estimation) including in balanced vs. imbalanced training sets and in computer vision vs. medical imaging. Our results support key findings: (1) We achieve new conclusions which are not studied under different learning contexts, e.g., combining two calibration models that both mitigate the overconfident prediction can lead to under-confident prediction, and simpler calibration models from the computer vision domain tend to be more generalizable to medical imaging. (2) We highlight the gap between general computer vision tasks and medical imaging prediction, e.g., calibration methods ideal for general computer vision tasks may in fact damage the calibration of medical imaging prediction. (3) We also reinforce previous conclusions in natural image classification settings. We believe that this study has merits to guide readers to choose calibration models and understand gaps between general computer vision and medical imaging domains., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures

Complex diseases are caused by a multitude of factors that may differ between patients even within the same diagnostic category. A few underlying root causes may nevertheless initiate the development of disease within each patient. We therefore focus on identifying patient-specific root causes of disease, which we equate to the sample-specific predictivity of the exogenous error terms in a structural equation model. We generalize from the linear setting to the heteroscedastic noise model where $Y = m(X) + \varepsilon\sigma(X)$ with non-linear functions $m(X)$ and $\sigma(X)$ representing the conditional mean and mean absolute deviation, respectively. This model preserves identifiability but introduces non-trivial challenges that require a customized algorithm called Generalized Root Causal Inference (GRCI) to extract the error terms correctly. GRCI recovers patient-specific root causes more accurately than existing alternatives.

Complex diseases are caused by a multitude of factors that may differ between patients. As a result, hypothesis tests comparing all patients to all healthy controls can detect many significant variables with inconsequential effect sizes. A few highly predictive root causes may nevertheless generate disease within each patient. In this paper, we define patient-specific root causes as variables subject to exogenous "shocks" which go on to perturb an otherwise healthy system and induce disease. In other words, the variables are associated with the exogenous errors of a structural equation model (SEM), and these errors predict a downstream diagnostic label. We quantify predictivity using sample-specific Shapley values. This derivation allows us to develop a fast algorithm called Root Causal Inference for identifying patient-specific root causes by extracting the error terms of a linear SEM and then computing the Shapley value associated with each error. Experiments highlight considerable improvements in accuracy because the method uncovers root causes that may have large effect sizes at the individual level but clinically insignificant effect sizes at the group level. An R implementation is available at github.com/ericstrobl/RCI.

Efficiently quantifying renal structures can provide distinct spatial context and facilitate biomarker discovery for kidney morphology. However, the development and evaluation of the transformer model to segment the renal cortex, medulla, and collecting system remains challenging due to data inefficiency. Inspired by the hierarchical structures in vision transformer, we propose a novel method using a 3D block aggregation transformer for segmenting kidney components on contrast-enhanced CT scans. We construct the first cohort of renal substructures segmentation dataset with 116 subjects under institutional review board (IRB) approval. Our method yields the state-of-the-art performance (Dice of 0.8467) against the baseline approach of 0.8308 with the data-efficient design. The Pearson R achieves 0.9891 between the proposed method and manual standards and indicates the strong correlation and reproducibility for volumetric analysis. We extend the proposed method to the public KiTS dataset, the method leads to improved accuracy compared to transformer-based approaches. We show that the 3D block aggregation transformer can achieve local communication between sequence representations without modifying self-attention, and it can serve as an accurate and efficient quantification tool for characterizing renal structures.