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Alternative combination models according for the relative impact of LDH, REC, RLC and the pattern of visceral metastasis. A nomogram was developed using the nomogram function of R (A). For each patient a linear predictor score (risk score) considering the relative impact of four single factors was calculated as follows: LDH-ratio >2.5 - 100 points; presence of visceral metastasis other than lung - 96 points; REC

Overview of factors, cut-offs, and analysis of overall survival according to cohorts

Overall survival (OS) following pembrolizumab according to the count of favorable baseline factors considering death from any reason as "event". In total, 194 patients with complete data of the four baseline markers as considered in the combination model died during follow up. The reasons of death were progressive melanoma (n=189), voluntary physician-assisted ending of life (n=2), or cerebral insult (n=3). In contrast to all other analyses throughout the manuscript, Kaplan-Meier curves of OS according to the number of favorable baseline factors are presented considering death from any reason as "event". The discriminatory ability was marginally higher compared to the analysis of melanoma-specific OS (c-index 0.783 vs. 0.782), and differences in OS remained significant in all pairwise comparisons between the five categories (log rank p=0.046 regarding the difference between patients with 4 or 3 favorable factors, p=0.009 regarding the difference between patients with 1 and 0 favorable factors, p

Algorithm for cut-off point definition

Purpose: Biomarkers for outcome after immune-checkpoint blockade are strongly needed as these may influence individual treatment selection or sequence. We aimed to identify baseline factors associated with overall survival (OS) after pembrolizumab treatment in melanoma patients.Experimental Design: Serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), routine blood count parameters, and clinical characteristics were investigated in 616 patients. Endpoints were OS and best overall response following pembrolizumab treatment. Kaplan–Meier analysis and Cox regression were applied for survival analysis.Results: Relative eosinophil count (REC) ≥1.5%, relative lymphocyte count (RLC) ≥17.5%, ≤2.5-fold elevation of LDH, and the absence of metastasis other than soft-tissue/lung were associated with favorable OS in the discovery (n = 177) and the confirmation (n = 182) cohort and had independent positive impact (all P < 0.001). Their independent role was subsequently confirmed in the validation cohort (n = 257; all P < 0.01). The number of favorable factors was strongly associated with prognosis. One-year OS probabilities of 83.9% versus 14.7% and response rates of 58.3% versus 3.3% were observed in patients with four of four compared to those with none of four favorable baseline factors present, respectively.Conclusions: High REC and RLC, low LDH, and absence of metastasis other than soft-tissue/lung are independent baseline characteristics associated with favorable OS of patients with melanoma treated with pembrolizumab. Presence of four favorable factors in combination identifies a subgroup with excellent prognosis. In contrast, patients with no favorable factors present have a poor prognosis, despite pembrolizumab, and additional treatment advances are still needed. A potential predictive impact needs to be further investigated. Clin Cancer Res; 22(22); 5487–96. ©2016 AACR.

Patients treated with pembrolizumab according to clinical site

Overall survival according to the relative lymphocyte and eosinophil counts in 3 subgroups of patients defined by LDH and the pattern of visceral metastasis. Kaplan Meier curves for OS are presented according to relative lymphocyte count (left), relative eosinophil counts (middle) and the count of favorable pre-treatment values considering both factors (right). In patients 132 patients with LDH-ratio {less than or equal to}2.5 AND no visceral metastasis other than lung (A) OS was significantly longer in patients with RLC {greater than or equal to}17.5% (p=0.003) and in those with 2 vs 0 favorable pretreatment values (p=0.022). In 310 patients with either LDH-ratio {less than or equal to}2.5 OR no visceral metastasis other than lung (B) OS was significantly in all pairwise comparisons of the three biomarker categories (all log rank p2.5 AND visceral metastasis other than lung (C) the differences in OS between patients with 2 vs 0 favorable pretreatment factors was not statistically significant (log rank p=0.108).

Relative proportion and survival analyses of all possible combination groups accounting for LDH, pattern of visceral metastasis, RLC and REC

BackgroundDespite the availability of effective systemic therapies, a significant number of advanced melanoma patients develops brain metastases. This study investigated differences in incidence and time to diagnosis of brain metastasis and survival outcomes dependent on the type of first-line therapy.MethodsPatients with metastatic, non-resectable melanoma (AJCCv8 stage IIIC–V) without brain metastasis at start of first-line therapy (1L-therapy) were identified from the prospective multicenter real-world skin cancer registry ADOREG. Study endpoints were incidence of brain metastasis, brain metastasis-free survival (BMFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS).ResultsOf 1704 patients, 916 were BRAF wild-type (BRAFwt) and 788 were BRAF V600 mutant (BRAFmut). Median follow-up time after start of 1L-therapy was 40.4 months. BRAFwtpatients received 1L-therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) against CTLA-4+PD-1 (n=281) or PD-1 (n=544). In BRAFmutpatients, 1L-therapy was ICI in 415 patients (CTLA-4+PD-1, n=108; PD-1, n=264), and BRAF+MEK targeted therapy (TT) in 373 patients. After 24 months, 1L-therapy with BRAF+MEK resulted in a higher incidence of brain metastasis compared with PD-1±CTLA-4 (BRAF+MEK, 30.3%; CTLA-4+PD-1, 22.2%; PD-1, 14.0%). In multivariate analysis, BRAFmutpatients developed brain metastases earlier on 1L-therapy with BRAF+MEK than with PD-1±CTLA-4 (CTLA-4+PD-1: HR 0.560, 95% CI 0.332 to 0.945, p=0.030; PD-1: HR 0.575, 95% CI 0.372 to 0.888, p=0.013). Type of 1L-therapy, tumor stage, and age were independent prognostic factors for BMFS in BRAFmutpatients. In BRAFwtpatients, tumor stage was independently associated with longer BMFS; ECOG Performance status (ECOG-PS), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and tumor stage with OS. CTLA-4+PD-1 did not result in better BMFS, PFS, or OS than PD-1 in BRAFwtpatients. For BRAFmutpatients, multivariate Cox regression revealed ECOG-PS, type of 1L-therapy, tumor stage, and LDH as independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS. 1L-therapy with CTLA-4+PD-1 led to longer OS than PD-1 (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.122 to 3.455, p=0.018) or BRAF+MEK (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.432 to 4.054, p=0.001), without PD-1 being superior to BRAF+MEK.ConclusionsIn BRAFmutpatients 1L-therapy with PD-1±CTLA-4 ICI resulted in a delayed and less frequent development of brain metastasis compared with BRAF+MEK TT. 1L-therapy with CTLA-4+PD-1 showed superior OS compared with PD-1 and BRAF+MEK. In BRAFwtpatients, no differences in brain metastasis and survival outcomes were detected for CTLA-4+PD-1 compared with PD-1.

BackgroundIn patients with stage III melanoma, despite surgical resection and adjuvant systemic therapy, locoregional recurrences still occur. The randomized, phase III Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (TROG) 02.01 trial demonstrated that adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after complete lymphadenectomy (CLND) halves the incidence of melanoma recurrence within local nodal basins without improving overall survival or quality of life. However, the study was conducted prior to the current era of adjuvant systemic therapies and when CLND was the standard approach for microscopic nodal disease. As such, there is currently no data on the role of adjuvant RT in patients with melanoma who recur during or after adjuvant immunotherapy, including those that may or may not have undergone prior CLND. In this study, we aimed to answer this question.MethodsPatients with resected stage III melanoma who received adjuvant anti-programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) (±ipilimumab) immunotherapy with a subsequent locoregional (lymph node and/or in-transit metastases) recurrence were retrospectively identified. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were conducted. Primary outcome was rate of subsequent locoregional recurrence; secondary outcomes were locoregional recurrence-free survival (lr-RFS2) and overall RFS (RFS2) to second recurrence.ResultsIn total, 71 patients were identified: 42 (59%) men, 30 (42%) BRAF V600E mutant, 43 (61%) stage IIIC at diagnosis. Median time to first recurrence was 7 months (1–44), 24 (34%) received adjuvant RT and 47 (66%) did not. Thirty-three patients (46%) developed a second recurrence at a median of 5 months (1–22). The rate of locoregional relapse at second recurrence was lower in those who received adjuvant RT (8%, 2/24) compared with those who did not (36%, 17/47, p=0.01). Adjuvant RT at first recurrence was associated with an improved lr-RFS2 (HR 0.16, p=0.015), with a trend towards an improved RFS2 (HR 0.54, p=0.072) and no effect on risk of distant recurrence or overall survival.ConclusionThis is the first study to investigate the role of adjuvant RT in patients with melanoma with locoregional disease recurrence during or after adjuvant anti-PD-1-based immunotherapy. Adjuvant RT was associated with improved lr-RFS2, but not risk of distant recurrence, demonstrating a likely benefit in locoregional disease control in the modern era. Further prospective studies are required to validate these results.