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Understanding factors associated with increased risk for tuberculosis (TB) recurrence is essential in lowering the TB burden. We aimed to quantify the burden, risk factors, and timing of TB presumptive recurrence.We analyzed test results from 2013 to 2017 in the South African National Health Laboratory Service's database. We defined a person's TB episode to start with their first positive TB test. In the absence of treatment outcome data, we assumed the episode concluded 6 months later for rifampicin-susceptible TB (RS-TB) and 18 months later for rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB), provided that at least one negative smear or culture test was recorded within this period. We defined a presumptive recurrent TB episode to start with a positive TB test after the completion of a prior episode. We calculated recurrence measures stratified by various demographics and RR-TB status.Of 574,316 people with RS-TB, 4.7% experienced at least one presumptive recurrent TB episode. Higher local TB notification rates, HIV coinfection, and males experienced higher recurrence rates. Most (89.4%) of the first RS-TB recurrences occurred within a year of the initial episode.Our findings of when and among whom recurrent TB is more likely to occur can be used to assist early interventions and inform impact on patient care..

Places of worship serve as a venue for both mass and routine gathering around the world, and therefore are associated with risk of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, such routine gatherings also offer an opportunity to distribute self-tests to members of the community to potentially help mitigate transmission and reduce broader community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Over the past four years, self-testing strategies have been an impactful tool for countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on to mitigate the spread when vaccination and treatment options were limited. We used an agent-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of various strategies of symptomatic and asymptomatic self-testing for a fixed percentage of weekly routine gatherings at places of worship on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, Georgia, and Zambia. Testing strategies assessed included weekly and bi-weekly self-testing across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage, and reproductive numbers to simulate developing stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-testing symptomatic people attending routine gatherings can cost-effectively reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within places of worship and the community, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $69-$303 USD. This trend is especially true in contexts where population level attendance at such gatherings is high, demonstrating that a distribution approach is more impactful when a greater proportion of the population is reached. Asymptomatic self-testing of attendees at 100% of places of worship in a country results in the greatest percent of infections averted and is consistently cost-effective but remains costly. Budgetary needs for asymptomatic testing are expensive and likely unaffordable for lower-middle income countries (520-1550x greater than that of symptomatic testing alone), promoting that strategies to strengthen symptomatic testing should remain a higher priority., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the WHO., (Copyright: © 2024 Hansen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Implicit statistical learning, whereby predictable relationships between stimuli are detected without conscious awareness, is important for language acquisition. However, while this process is putatively implicit, it is often assessed using measures that require explicit reflection and conscious decision making. Here, we conducted three experiments combining an artificial grammar learning paradigm with a serial reaction time (SRT-AGL) task, to measure statistical learning of adjacent and nonadjacent dependencies implicitly, without conscious decision making. Participants viewed an array of six visual stimuli and were presented with a sequence of three auditory (nonsense words, Expt. 1; names of familiar objects, Expt. 2) or visual (abstract shapes, Expt. 3) cues and were asked to click on the corresponding visual stimulus as quickly as possible. In each experiment, the final stimulus in the sequence was predictable based on items earlier in the sequence. Faster responses to this predictable final stimulus compared to unpredictable stimuli would provide evidence of implicit statistical learning, without requiring explicit decision making or conscious reflection. Despite previous positive results (Christiansen et al. 2009 and Misyak et al. 2010) we saw little evidence of implicit statistical learning in any of the experiments, suggesting that in this case, these SRT-AGL tasks were not an effective measure implicit statistical learning., Competing Interests: This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials., (Copyright: © 2024 Jenkins et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

In the United States, tuberculosis (TB) screening is recommended for pregnant individuals with TB risk factors. We conducted a retrospective study of perinatal TB infection testing and treatment in a tertiary health system. Of 165 pregnant individuals with positive TB infection tests, only 9% completed treatment within 4.6 years of follow-up., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No potential conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB notifications in Ukraine, stratified by multiple subgroups., Design/methods: We analyzed data from Ukraine's National TB Program from January 2015 to December 2020 using interrupted time series models. We compared observed cases to counterfactual estimated cases had the pandemic not occurred and estimated trends through December 2020 nationally and by various demographics. We compared the proportions of individuals who underwent drug susceptibility testing (DST) in February 2020 and April 2020 to assess the pandemic impact on drug resistance testing., Results: In April 2020, there were 39% (95% CI 36-42) fewer TB notifications than the estimated counterfactual (3,060 estimated; 95% CI 2,918-3,202; 1,872 observed). We observed a greater decrease in notifications among refugees/migrants compared with non-refugees/migrants (64%, 95% CI 60-67 vs. 39%, 95% CI 36-42), and individuals aged <15 years compared with those aged ≥15 years (60%, 95% CI 57-64 vs. 38%, 95% CI 36-41). We also observed a decrease in the proportion of individuals receiving DST for several drugs., Conclusions: These findings underscore the challenges to TB prevention and care during disruption and may be generalizable to the current wartime situation, especially considering the substantial increase in refugees within and leaving Ukraine., (© 2024 The Authors.)

There is substantial heterogeneity in disease presentation for individuals with TB disease, which may correlate with disease outcomes. We estimated disease outcomes by disease severity at presentation among individuals with TB during the pre-chemotherapy era.We extracted data on people with TB enrolled between 1917 and 1948 in the USA, stratified by three disease severity categories at presentation using the U.S. National Tuberculosis Association diagnostic criteria. These criteria were based largely on radiographic findings ("minimal", "moderately advanced", and "far advanced"). We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution overall, and by disease severity and Bayesian logistic regression to estimate the severity-level specific natural recovery odds within 3 years.People with minimal TB at presentation had a 2% (95% CrI 0-11%) probability of TB death within 5 years vs. 40% (95% CrI 15-68) for those with far advanced disease. Individuals with minimal disease had 13.62 times the odds (95% CrI 9.87-19.10) of natural recovery within 3 years vs. those with far advanced disease.Mortality and natural recovery vary by disease severity at presentation. This supports continued work to evaluate individualized (e.g., shortened or longer) regimens based on disease severity at presentation, identified using radiography..

Objectives: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students., Design: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation., Setting and Participants: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions., Interventions: SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies., Outcome Measures: Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students., Results: With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone., Conclusions: Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) in healthcare professional education is important, yet publications often provide insufficient detail about the types of involvement patients undertake and the level of autonomy that they have. This study details the factors that promote or hinder PPI within a university healthcare professional education setting and the types of activities members conducted., Methods: PPI activities were described and mapped against a framework for PPI in healthcare professional education. Semi-structured interviews with PPI group members explored the motivators, enablers and barriers that influence involvement., Findings: The framework highlighted that the PPI group were involved in a range of activities, yet they received limited training for their role and were infrequently involved in planning the activities. When interviewed, PPI members did not consider that these factors were the important promoters or barriers to involvement, instead emphasising five themes: (1) their individual characteristics, (2) factors relating to the university organisation, (3) relationships between themselves, faculty and students, (4) time in their role and (5) evidence of their impact., Discussion and Conclusion: Supporting PPI members whilst working, rather than provision of formal training was considered most empowering for group members. This was mediated through having enough time in their role to develop supportive relationships with faculty, which in turn promoted self-confidence and increased autonomy. This should be considered when making PPI appointments. Small changes in processes during education planning can make it easier for PPI members to bring their own agenda forward and promote equity during education decision making., (© 2023 The Authors. The Clinical Teacher published by Association for the Study of Medical Education and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) collects all public health laboratory test results in South Africa, providing a cohort from which to identify groups, by age, sex, HIV, and viral suppression status, that would benefit from increased tuberculosis (TB) testing. Using NHLS data (2012-2016), we assessed levels and trends over time in TB diagnostic tests performed (count and per capita) and TB test positivity. Estimates were stratified by HIV status, viral suppression, age, sex, and province. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds of testing positive for TB by viral suppression status. Nineteen million TB diagnostic tests were conducted during period 2012-2016. Testing per capita was lower among PLHIV with viral suppression than those with unsuppressed HIV (0.08 vs 0.32) but lowest among people without HIV (0.03). Test positivity was highest among young adults (aged 15-35 years), males of all age groups, and people with unsuppressed HIV. Test positivity was higher for males without laboratory evidence of HIV than those with HIV viral suppression, despite similar individual odds of TB. Our results are an important national baseline characterizing who received TB testing in South Africa. People without evidence of HIV, young adults, and males would benefit from increased TB screening given their lower testing rates and higher test positivity. These high-test positivity groups can be used to guide future expansions of TB screening., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

An investigation was carried out to examine the use of national Xpert MTB/RIF data (2013-2017) and GIS technology for MTB/RIF surveillance in South Africa. The aim was to exhibit the potential of using molecular diagnostics for TB surveillance across the country. The variables analysed include Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ) positivity, the mycobacterial proportion of rifampicin-resistant Mtb (RIF), and probe frequency. The summary statistics of these variables were generated and aggregated at the facility and municipal level. The spatial distribution patterns of the indicators across municipalities were determined using the Moran's I and Getis Ord (Gi) statistics. A case-control study was conducted to investigate factors associated with a high mycobacterial load. Logistic regression was used to analyse this study's results. There was striking spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of Mtb and RIF across South Africa. The median patient age, urban setting classification, and number of health care workers were found to be associated with the mycobacterial load. This study illustrates the potential of using data generated from molecular diagnostics in combination with GIS technology for Mtb surveillance in South Africa. Spatially targeted interventions can be implemented in areas where high-burden Mtb persists.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 40% of people who developed TB in 2021 were not diagnosed or treated. Pre-chemotherapy era data are a rich resource on survival of people with untreated TB. We aimed to identify heterogeneities in these data to inform their more precise use. METHODS: We extracted survival data from pre-chemotherapy era papers reporting TB-specific mortality and/or natural recovery data. We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution, stratifying by geography (North America vs. Europe), time (pre-1930 vs. post-1930), and setting (sanitoria vs. non-sanitoria). RESULTS: We found 12 studies with TB-specific mortality data. Ten-year survival was 69% in North America (95% CI 54-81) and 36% in Europe (95% CI 10-71). Only 38% (95% CI 18-63) of non-sanitorium individuals survived to 10 years compared to 69% (95% CI 41-87) of sanitoria/hospitalized patients. There were no significant differences between people diagnosed pre-1930 and post-1930 (5-year survival pre-1930: 65%, 95% CI 44-88 vs. post-1930: 72%, 95% CI 41-94). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality and natural recovery risks vary substantially by location and setting. These heterogeneities need to be considered when using pre-chemotherapy data to make inferences about expected survival of people with undiagnosed TB.

Background: Public health interventions that target children's physical, mental, and emotional health will enhance their ability to learn and grow. Although more complex, school initiatives that address multiple ecological levels and take a holistic view may be more effective and likely to lead to lasting change., Aims: This article presents the framework of Commit to Be Fit (C2BF) as an example of how schools can integrate multi-level and holistic approaches for health. This innovative school-based intervention includes activities addressing individual, home, school, and community to create a culture of wellness. We describe the implementation of C2BF and its basis in ecological models and give examples of activities across three components: cafeteria, classroom, and community. We discuss challenges and note that leadership engagement and alignment were critical elements for C2BF's success thus far., Discussion: C2BF uses a school-based multi-level approach to creating a culture of wellness and holistic health for students, teachers, and community members. C2BF is unique compared to other school-based programming and includes activities that address all eight domains posited for program sustainability within public health. Built to be flexible and adaptive, C2BF was able to successfully pivot during the COVID pandemic and also follow new science., Conclusion: C2BF and other multi-level holistic approaches are more likely to achieve long-term change by utilizing strategies across the multiple levels of the ecological model to improve health and wellbeing., Competing Interests: HJ, JT, and AB are RCPS employees who received at least partial salary support from the PATH Foundation through the C2BF grant. SG is the RCPS superintendent and received no compensation from PATH. HJ, JT, AB, and SG were not involved in data analyses outside of the participatory analysis in the Enhanced Force Field Analysis. LW, AR, and DP were contracted by the PATH Foundation to provide evaluation support for C2BF. KD and ME are employees of the PATH Foundation but did not have a role in the evaluation design, data collection, analysis, or interpretation of the findings that were the basis for this publication, and their support as C2BF program officers was critical to its implementation and success; however, their roles in this publication were limited to providing feedback on the final draft. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Redelfs, Smith, Merrill, Grimsley, Jenkins, Tederick, Butler, Dueck, Eastham Thomas, Perez and Whigham.)

Human migration facilitates the spread of infectious disease. However, little is known about the contribution of migration to the spread of tuberculosis in South Africa. We analyzed longitudinal data on all tuberculosis test results recorded by South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), January 2011-July 2017, alongside municipality-level migration flows estimated from the 2016 South African Community Survey. We first assessed migration patterns in people with laboratory-diagnosed tuberculosis and analyzed demographic predictors. We then quantified the impact of cross-municipality migration on tuberculosis incidence in municipality-level regression models. The NHLS database included 921,888 patients with multiple clinic visits with TB tests. Of these, 147,513 (16%) had tests in different municipalities. The median (IQR) distance travelled was 304 (163 to 536) km. Migration was most common at ages 20-39 years and rates were similar for men and women. In municipality-level regression models, each 1% increase in migration-adjusted tuberculosis prevalence was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.03% to 0.90%) increase in the incidence of drug-susceptible tuberculosis two years later, even after controlling for baseline prevalence. Similar results were found for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Accounting for migration improved our ability to predict future incidence of tuberculosis., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Modeling studies have concluded that 60-80% of tuberculosis (TB) infections result from reinfection of previously infected persons. The annual rate of infection (ARI), a standard measure of the risk of TB infection in a community, may not accurately reflect the true risk of infection among previously infected persons. We constructed a model of infection and reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to explore the predictive accuracy of ARI and its effect on disease incidence., Methods: We created a deterministic simulation of the progression from TB infection to disease and simulated the prevalence of TB infection at the beginning and end of a theoretical year of infection. We considered 10 disease prevalence scenarios ranging from 100/100 000 to 1000/100 000 in simulations where TB exposure probability was homogeneous across the whole simulated population or heterogeneously stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. ARI values, rates of progression from infection to disease, and the effect of multiple reinfections were obtained from published studies., Results: With homogeneous exposure risk, observed ARI values produced expected numbers of infections. However, when heterogeneous risk was introduced, observed ARI was seen to underestimate true ARI by 25-58%. Of the cases of TB disease that occurred, 36% were among previously infected persons when prevalence was 100/100 000, increasing to 79% of cases when prevalence was 1000/100 000., Conclusions: Measured ARI underestimates true ARI as a result of heterogeneous population mixing. The true force of infection in a community may be greater than previously appreciated. Hyperendemic communities likely contribute disproportionally to the global TB disease burden., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. The authors: No reported conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Improved understanding of the epidemiology and mortality risk factors of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) may facilitate successful diagnosis and management., Methods: We analyzed national surveillance data from Ukraine to characterize EPTB subtypes (ie, localized in different anatomic sites). We calculated annual reported incidence, stratified by age, sex, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. Using Cox regression, we estimated mortality risk factors., Results: Between January 2015 and November 2018, 14 062 adults/adolescents (≥15 years) and 417 children (<15 years) had EPTB with or without concomitant pulmonary TB. The most commonly reported EPTB subtypes were pleural, peripheral lymph node, and osteoarticular. Most EPTB subtype notifications peaked at age 30-39 years and were higher in males. In adults/adolescents, most peripheral TB lymphadenitis, central nervous system (CNS) TB, and abdominal TB occurred in those with untreated HIV. CNS TB notifications in people without HIV peaked before age 5 years. Adults/adolescents with CNS TB (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 3.22; 95% CI: 2.89-3.60) and abdominal TB (aHR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.59-2.11) were more likely to die than those with pulmonary TB. Children with CNS TB were more likely to die (aHR: 88.25; 95% CI: 43.49-179.10) than those with non-CNS TB. Among adults/adolescents, older age and HIV were associated with death. Rifampicin resistance was associated with mortality in pleural, peripheral lymph node, and CNS TB., Conclusions: We identified the most common EPTB subtypes by age and sex, patterns of EPTB disease by HIV status, and mortality risk factors. These findings can inform diagnosis and care for people with EPTB., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. E. J. C. serves on the Technical Review Committee of Unitaid and the Training Division of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (IUATLD). C. R. H. serves on the data safety monitoring board, the safety advisory board, and the steering committee of BEAT-Tuberculosis, TB PRACTECAL, and STREAM, respectively. He also serves as Vice President of the North American Region of the IUATLD. M. D. reports providing expert support in development of the national tuberculosis (TB) care standard. V. P. reports being a member of the TB Expert Board of Ministry of Health of Ukraine. I. T. reports being a lead of NTP or Ukraine and is responsible for TB-related data analysis and presenting. I. V. reports being a member of Ukrainian NTP team and being responsible for TB-related data analysis and presenting. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Mobile screening units can help close tuberculosis case detection gaps. Placing screening units where people at high risk for undiagnosed tuberculosis preferentially spend time could make screening more resource-effective. We conducted a case-control study in Lima, Peru to identify locations where people with tuberculosis were more likely to spend time than community controls. We surveyed participants about activity locations over the past 6 months. We used density-based clustering to assess how patient and control activity locations differed, and logistic regression to compare location-based exposures. We included 109 tuberculosis patients and 79 controls. In density-based clustering analysis, the two groups had similar patterns of living locations, but their work locations clustered in distinct areas. Both groups were similarly likely to use public transit, but patients predominantly used buses and were less likely to use rapid transit (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.10-0.96) or taxis (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.85). Patients were more likely to have spent time in prison (aOR 11.55, 95% CI 1.48-90.13). Placing mobile screening units at bus terminals serving locations where tuberculosis patients have worked and within and around prisons could help reach people with undiagnosed tuberculosis., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The generation interval (the time between infection of primary and secondary cases) and its often used proxy, the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of primary and secondary cases) are critical parameters in understanding infectious disease dynamics. Because it is difficult to determine who infected whom, these important outbreak characteristics are not well understood for many diseases. We present a novel method for estimating transmission intervals using surveillance or outbreak investigation data that, unlike existing methods, does not require a contact tracing data or pathogen whole genome sequence data on all cases. We start with an expectation maximization algorithm and incorporate relative transmission probabilities with noise reduction. We use simulations to show that our method can accurately estimate the generation interval distribution for diseases with different reproductive numbers, generation intervals, and mutation rates. We then apply our method to routinely collected surveillance data from Massachusetts (2010-2016) to estimate the serial interval of tuberculosis in this setting., (© The Author 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Annually, more than 30% of individuals with tuberculosis (TB) remain undiagnosed. We aimed to assess whether geographic accessibility measures can identify neighborhoods that would benefit from TB screening services targeted toward closing the diagnosis gap., Methods: We used data from a community-based mobile TB screening program in Carabayllo district, Lima, Peru. We constructed four accessibility measures from the geographic center of neighborhoods to health facilities. We used logistic regression to assess the association between these measures and screening uptake in one's residential neighborhood versus elsewhere, with quasi-information criterion values to assess the association., Results: We analyzed the screening locations for 25,000 Carabayllo residents from 49 neighborhoods. Pedestrian walk time was preferable to Euclidean distance or vehicular time in our models. For each additional 12 minutes walking time between the neighborhood and the health facility, the odds of residents using TB screening units located in their neighborhoods increased by 50% (95% CI: 26%-78%). Females had 9% (95% CI: 3%-16%) increased odds versus males of using a screening unit in their own neighborhood., Conclusion: Placing mobile TB screening units in neighborhoods with longer pedestrian time to access health facilities could benefit individuals who face more acute access barriers to health care., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious disease killer globally. Treatment outcomes are especially poor among people with extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB, until recently defined as rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB with resistance to an aminoglycoside (amikacin) and a fluoroquinolone (ofloxacin). We used laboratory TB test results from Western Cape province, South Africa between 2012 and 2015 to identify XDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB (RR-TB with resistance to one second-line drug) spatial hotspots. We mapped the percentage and count of individuals with RR-TB that had XDR-TB and pre-XDR-TB across the province and in Cape Town, as well as amikacin-resistant and ofloxacin-resistant TB. We found the percentage of pre-XDR-TB and the count of XDR-TB/pre-XDR-TB highly heterogeneous with geographic hotspots within RR-TB high burden areas, and found hotspots in both percentage and count of amikacin-resistant and ofloxacin-resistant TB. The spatial distribution of percentage ofloxacin-resistant TB hotspots was similar to XDR-TB hotspots, suggesting that fluoroquinolone-resistace is often the first step to additional resistance. Our work shows that interventions used to reduce XDR-TB incidence may need to be targeted within spatial locations of RR-TB, and further research is required to understand underlying drivers of XDR-TB transmission in these locations., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

We reviewed autopsy data from general hospitals in Lviv, Ukraine to understand pediatric mortality due to tuberculosis (TB). We identified 14 (0.6%) of 2345 autopsied children with unrecognized or untreated TB. More sensitive TB diagnostics for children and improved strategies for identifying which children require TB evaluation are urgently needed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To use routinely collected data, with the addition of geographic information and census data, to identify local hot spots of rates of reported tuberculosis cases., Design: Residential locations of tuberculosis cases identified from eight public health facilities in Lima, Peru (2013-2018) were linked to census data to calculate neighborhood-level annual case rates. Heat maps of tuberculosis case rates by neighborhood were created. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation, Moran's I, were used to identify where in the study area spatial clusters and outliers of tuberculosis case rates were occurring. Age- and sex-stratified case rates were also assessed., Results: We identified reports of 1,295 TB cases across 74 neighborhoods during the five-year study period, for an average annual rate of 124.2 reported TB cases per 100,000 population. In evaluating case rates by individual neighborhood, we identified a median rate of reported cases of 123.6 and a range from 0 to 800 cases per 100,000 population. Individuals aged 15-44 years old and men had higher case rates than other age groups and women. Locations of both hot and cold spots overlapped across age- and gender-specific maps., Conclusions: There is significant geographic heterogeneity in rates of reported TB cases and evident hot and cold spots within the study area. Characterization of the spatial distribution of these rates and local hot spots may be one practical tool to inform the work of local coalitions to target TB interventions in their zones., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children with tuberculosis (TB), yet there are currently no estimates of the global burden of pediatric TBM. Due to frequent non-specific clinical presentation and limited and inadequate diagnostic tests, children with TBM are often diagnosed late or die undiagnosed. Even when diagnosed and treated, 20% of children with TBM die. Of survivors, the majority have substantial neurological disability with significant negative impact on children and their families. Surveillance data on this devastating form of TB can help to quantify the contribution of TBM to the overall burden, morbidity and mortality of TB in children and the epidemiology of TB more broadly. Pediatric TBM usually occurs shortly after primary infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and reflects ongoing TB transmission to children. In this article we explain the public health importance of pediatric TBM, discuss the epidemiology within the context of overall TB control and health system functioning and the limitations of current surveillance strategies. We provide a clear rationale for the benefit of improved surveillance of pediatric TBM using a TB care cascade framework to support monitoring and evaluation of pediatric TB, and TB control more broadly. Considering the public health implications of a diagnosis of TBM in children, we provide recommendations to strengthen pediatric TBM surveillance and outline how improved surveillance can help us identify opportunities for prevention, earlier diagnosis and improved care to minimize the impact of TBM on children globally., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 du Preez, Jenkins, Donald, Solomons, Graham, Schaaf, Starke, Hesseling and Seddon.)

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) among children and young adolescents (<15 years old) is estimated at 1.1 million; however, only 400,000 are treated for TB, indicating a large gap between the number who are cared for and the number estimated to have TB. Accurate data on the burden of pediatric TB is essential to guide action. Despite several improvements in estimating the burden of pediatric TB in the last decade, as well as enhanced data collection efforts, several data gaps remain, both at the global level, but also at the national level where surveillance systems and collaborative research are critical. In this article, we describe recent advances in data collection and burden estimates for TB among children and adolescents, and the remaining gaps. While data collection continues to improve, burden estimates must evolve in parallel, both in terms of their frequency and the methods used. Currently, at the global level, there is a focus on age-disaggregation of TB notifications, the collection of data on TB-HIV, multi-drug resistant (MDR)-TB and treatment outcomes, as well as estimates of the disease burden. Additional data from national surveillance systems or research projects on TB meningitis, as well as other forms of extra-pulmonary TB, would be useful. We must capitalize on the current momentum in child and adolescent TB to close the remaining data gaps for these age groups to better understand the epidemic and further reduce morbidity and mortality due to TB.

Tuberculosis screening programs commonly target areas with high case notification rates. However, this may exacerbate disparities by excluding areas that already face barriers to accessing diagnostic services. We compared historic case notification rates, demographic, and socioeconomic indicators as predictors of neighborhood-level tuberculosis screening yield during a mobile screening program in 74 neighborhoods in Lima, Peru. We used logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to identify predictors of screening yield. During February 7, 2019-February 6, 2020, the program screened 29,619 people and diagnosed 147 tuberculosis cases. Historic case notification rate was not associated with screening yield in any analysis. In regression analysis, screening yield decreased as the percent of vehicle ownership increased (odds ratio [OR]: 0.76 per 10% increase in vehicle ownership; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-0.99). CART analysis identified the percent of blender ownership (≤ 83.1% vs > 83.1%; OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.6) and the percent of TB patients with a prior tuberculosis episode (> 10.6% vs ≤ 10.6%; OR: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.0-12.7) as optimal predictors of screening yield. Overall, socioeconomic indicators were better predictors of tuberculosis screening yield than historic case notification rates. Considering community-level socioeconomic characteristics could help identify high-yield locations for screening interventions., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: To stop tuberculosis (TB), the leading infectious cause of death globally, we need to better understand transmission risk factors. Although many studies have identified associations between individual-level covariates and pathogen genetic relatedness, few have identified characteristics of transmission pairs or explored how closely covariates associated with genetic relatedness mirror those associated with transmission., Methods: We simulated a TB-like outbreak with pathogen genetic data and estimated odds ratios (ORs) to correlate each covariate and genetic relatedness. We used a naive Bayes approach to modify the genetic links and nonlinks to resemble the true links and nonlinks more closely and estimated modified ORs with this approach. We compared these two sets of ORs with the true ORs for transmission. Finally, we applied this method to TB data in Hamburg, Germany, and Massachusetts, USA, to find pair-level covariates associated with transmission., Results: Using simulations, we found that associations between covariates and genetic relatedness had the same relative magnitudes and directions as the true associations with transmission, but biased absolute magnitudes. Modifying the genetic links and nonlinks reduced the bias and increased the confidence interval widths, more accurately capturing error. In Hamburg and Massachusetts, pairs were more likely to be probable transmission links if they lived in closer proximity, had a shorter time between observations, or had shared ethnicity, social risk factors, drug resistance, or genotypes., Conclusions: We developed a method to improve the use of genetic relatedness as a proxy for transmission, and aid in understanding TB transmission dynamics in low-burden settings., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of symptoms used by daycares and schools to screen children and adolescents for SARS-CoV-2 infection, we analyzed data from a primary care setting., Methods: This cohort study included all patients ≤17 years old who were evaluated at Providence Community Health Centers (PCHC; Providence, U.S.), for COVID-19 symptoms and/or exposure, and received SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing between March-June 2020. Participants were identified from PCHC electronic medical records. For three age groups- 0-4, 5-11, and 12-17 years-we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of individual symptoms and three symptom combinations: a case definition published by the Rhode Island Department of Health (RIDOH), and two novel combinations generated by different statistical approaches to maximize sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. We evaluated symptom combinations both with and without consideration of COVID-19 exposure. Myalgia, headache, sore throat, abdominal pain, nausea, anosmia, and ageusia were not assessed in 0-4 year-olds due to the lower reliability of these symptoms in this group., Results: Of 555 participants, 217 (39.1%) were SARS-CoV-2-infected. Fever was more common among 0-4 years-olds (p = 0.002); older children more frequently reported fatigue (p = 0.02). In children ≥5 years old, anosmia or ageusia had 94-98% specificity. In all ages, exposure history most accurately predicted infection. With respect to individual symptoms, cough most accurately predicted infection in <5 year-olds (AUC 0.69) and 12-17 year-olds (AUC 0.62), while headache was most accurate in 5-11 year-olds (AUC 0.62). In combination with exposure history, the novel symptom combinations generated statistically to maximize test characteristics had sensitivity >95% but specificity <30%. No symptom or symptom combination had AUC ≥0.70., Conclusions: Anosmia or ageusia in children ≥5 years old should raise providers' index of suspicion for COVID-19. However, our overall findings underscore the limited diagnostic value of symptoms., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.