Search

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

This study employs landscape genetics to investigate the environmental drivers of a deadly vector-borne disease, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, in a more spatially comprehensive manner than any previous work. With 1804 samples from 44 sites collected in western Kenya in 2012 and 2013, we performed resistance surface analysis to show that Lake Victoria acts as a barrier to transmission between areas north and south of the Winam Gulf. In addition, Mantel correlograms clearly showed significant correlations between genetic and geographic distance over short distances (less than 70 km). In both cases, we used an identity-by-state measure of relatedness tailored to find highly related individual parasites in order to focus on recent gene flow that is more relevant to disease transmission. To supplement these results, we performed conventional population genetics analyses, including Bayesian clustering methods and spatial ordination techniques. These analyses revealed some differentiation on the basis of geography and elevation and a cluster of genetic similarity in the lowlands north of the Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria. Taken as a whole, these results indicate low overall genetic differentiation in the Lake Victoria region, but with some separation of parasite populations north and south of the Winam Gulf that is explained by the presence of the lake as a geographic barrier to gene flow. We recommend similar landscape genetics analyses in future molecular epidemiology studies of vector-borne diseases to extend and contextualize the results of traditional population genetics.

Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Author(s): Sung-mok Jung 1, Sara L. Loo 2, Emily Howerton 3, Lucie Contamin 4, Claire P. Smith 2, Erica C. Carcelén 2, Katie Yan 3, Samantha J. Bents 5, John [...]

Plasmodium vivax malaria was thought to be rare in Africa, but an increasing number of P. vivax cases reported across Africa and in Duffy-negative individuals challenges this dogma. The genetic characteristics of P. vivax in Duffy-negative infections, the transmission of P. vivax in East Africa, and the impact of environments on transmission remain largely unknown. This study examined genetic and transmission features of P. vivax from 107 Duffy-negative and 305 Duffy-positive individuals in Ethiopia and Sudan. No clear genetic differentiation was found in P. vivax between the 2 Duffy groups, indicating between-host transmission. P. vivax from Ethiopia and Sudan showed similar genetic clusters, except samples from Khartoum, possibly due to distance and road density that inhibited parasite gene flow. This study is the first to show that P. vivax can transmit to and from Duffy-negative individuals and provides critical insights into the spread of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS‐CoV) emerged in humans in 2002. Despite reports showing Chiroptera as the original animal reservoir of SARS‐CoV, many argue that Carnivora‐hosted viruses are the most likely origin. The emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in 2012 also involves Chiroptera‐hosted lineages. However, factors such as the lack of comprehensive phylogenies hamper our understanding of host shifts once MERS‐CoV emerged in humans and Artiodactyla. Since 2019, the origin of SARS‐CoV‐2, causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19), added to this episodic history of zoonotic transmission events. Here we introduce a phylogenetic analysis of 2006 unique and complete genomes of different lineages of Orthocoronavirinae. We used gene annotations to align orthologous sequences for total evidence analysis under the parsimony optimality criterion. Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus were set as outgroups to understand spillovers of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus among ten orders of animals. We corroborated that Chiroptera‐hosted viruses are the sister group of SARS‐CoV, SARS‐CoV‐2 and MERS‐related viruses. Other zoonotic events were qualified and quantified to provide a comprehensive picture of the risk of coronavirus emergence among humans. Finally, we used a 250 SARS‐CoV‐2 genomes dataset to elucidate the phylogenetic relationship between SARS‐CoV‐2 and Chiroptera‐hosted coronaviruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Discoveries of new species often depend on one or a few specimens, leading to delays as researchers wait for additional context, sometimes for decades. There is currently little professional incentive for a single expert to publish a stand-alone species description. Additionally, while many journals accept taxonomic descriptions, even specialist journals expect insights beyond the descriptive work itself. The combination of these factors exacerbates the issue that only a small fraction of marine species are known and new discoveries are described at a slow pace, while they face increasing threats from accelerating global change. To tackle this challenge, this first compilation of Ocean Species Discoveries (OSD) presents a new collaborative framework to accelerate the description and naming of marine invertebrate taxa that can be extended across all phyla. Through a mode of publication that can be speedy, taxonomy-focused and generate higher citation rates, OSD aims to create an attractive home for single species descriptions. This Senckenberg Ocean Species Alliance (SOSA) approach emphasises thorough, but compact species descriptions and diagnoses, with supporting illustrations and with molecular data when available. Even basic species descriptions carry key data for distributions and ecological interactions (e.g., host-parasite relationships) besides universally valid species names; these are essential for downstream uses, such as conservation assessments and communicating biodiversity to the broader public. New information: This paper presents thirteen marine invertebrate taxa, comprising one new genus, eleven new species and one re-description and reinstatement, covering wide taxonomic, geographic, bathymetric and ecological ranges. The taxa addressed herein span three phyla (Mollusca, Arthropoda, Echinodermata), five classes, eight orders and twelve families. Apart from the new genus, an updated generic diagnosis is provided for four other genera. The newly-described species of the phylum Mollusca are Placiphorella methanophila Vončina, sp. nov. (Polyplacophora, Mopaliidae), Lepetodrilus marianae Chen, Watanabe & Tsuda, sp. nov. (Gastropoda, Lepetodrilidae), Shinkailepas gigas Chen, Watanabe & Tsuda, sp. nov. (Gastropoda, Phenacolepadidae) and Lyonsiella illaesa Machado & Sigwart, sp. nov. (Bivalvia, Lyonsiellidae). The new taxa of the phylum Arthropoda are all members of the subphylum Crustacea: Lepechinella naces Lörz & Engel, sp. nov. (Amphipoda, Lepechinellidae), Cuniculomaera grata Tandberg & Jażdżewska, gen. et sp. nov. (Amphipoda, Maeridae), Pseudionella pumulaensis Williams & Landschoff, sp. nov. (Isopoda, Bopyridae), Mastigoniscus minimus Wenz, Knauber & Riehl, sp. nov. (Isopoda, Haploniscidae), Macrostylis papandreas Jonannsen, Riehl & Brandt, sp. nov. (Isopoda, Macrostylidae), Austroniscus indobathyasellus Kaiser, Kniesz & Kihara, sp. nov. (Isopoda, Nannoniscidae) and Apseudopsis daria Esquete & Tato, sp. nov. (Tanaidacea, Apseudidae). In the phylum Echinodermata, the reinstated species is Psychropotes buglossa E. Perrier, 1886 (Holothuroidea, Psychropotidae). The study areas span the North and Central Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the North, East and West Pacific Ocean and depths from 5.2 m to 7081 m. Specimens of eleven free-living and one parasite species were collected from habitats ranging from an estuary to deep-sea trenches. The species were illustrated with photographs, line drawings, micro-computed tomography, confocal laser scanning microscopy and scanning electron microscopy images. Molecular data are included for nine species and four species include a molecular diagnosis in addition to their morphological diagnosis. The five new geographic and bathymetric distribution records comprise Lepechinella naces Lörz & Engel, sp. nov., Cuniculomaera grata Tandberg & Jażdżewska, sp. nov., Pseudionella pumulaensis Williams & Landschoff, sp. nov., Austroniscus indobathyasellus Kaiser, Kniesz & Kihara, sp. nov. and Psychropotes buglossa E. Perrier, 1886, with the novelty spanning from the species to the family level. The new parasite record is Pseudionella pumulaensis Williams & Landschoff, sp. nov., found in association with the hermit crab Pagurus fraserorum Landschoff & Komai, 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]