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Based on U.S. cybersecurity policy, this thesis proposes effective countermeasures for the Republic of Korea (ROK) to prepare for, deter, and recover from cyber threats posed by North Korea. This study identifies the most dangerous North Korean cyber strikes facing South Korea by reviewing several cases of North Korean cyberattacks, the ROK’s countermeasures, and the severity of the damage caused by the attacks. The study builds on the writings of academics and subject matter experts as well as publicly available government policy documents, although specifics on policy are limited due to national security concerns. In addition, the study acknowledges how the cybersecurity paradigm has shifted as a result of U.S. planning, reaction to, and establishment of follow-up measures for an attack of a similar type by a cyber superpower. The strategy of deterring an opponent's operations based on the past has evolved into a strategy of preparing for enemy attacks through information sharing and preemptive defense measures, and counterattack by rapid recovery and identification of the enemy through resilience and with tracking technologies. Although the ROK is a country with well-developed information technology, its cybersecurity knowledge, systems, and technology remain weak in comparison to North Korea's abilities. Consequently, it is conceivable that the ROK can respond effectively to North Korea’s cyber threats by applying the lessons learned from the United States., Major, Republic of Korea Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

While the United States has reduced the overall number of nuclear warheads supporting U.S. extended deterrence in East Asia, North Korea has been developing additional nuclear weapons and missiles to maintain a stronger security posture against the United States. Therefore, South Korea, which is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella, is getting more skeptical of the credibility of the U.S. nuclear policy in regard to South Korea. Meanwhile, a well-organized North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) has assured allies of the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence policy in Europe. This study demonstrates that South Korea could enhance its assurance of U.S. commitment to extended deterrence by adopting the NATO NPG as a model of a nuclear consultative body. Enhancing South Korea-U.S. nuclear policy coordination as presented in this thesis would bolster extended deterrence of North Korea's threats and enhance South Korea's assurance of U.S. extended deterrence., Captain, Republic of Korea Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Armed conflicts and insurgencies today have adopted ruthless tactics of warfare by coercively recruiting child soldiers. Child soldiers play many roles during armed conflicts, creating security concerns for peace and stability in the international community. This study explores the social, physical, and psychological impact of child soldiers on peacekeepers and communities during and after conflict. It examines the three levels of risk (low, medium, and high) related to the use of force in interactions between child soldiers and members of the military and peacekeeping forces. Furthermore, the study assesses how lower-risk-level interactions can escalate to life-threatening situations. Drawing on relevant international law, literature by subject matter experts, and the author’s personal experience in peacekeeping operations, the research discusses how child soldiers shape contemporary peace support operations using Sierra Leone’s past civil war as a case that involved varieties of UN and non-UN peacekeeping efforts. Finally, the study makes recommendations to policymakers aimed to thwart efforts to recruit children and prevent further interactions between peacekeepers and children during all stages of conflict., Major, Sierra Leone Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Over the years, the National Network of Intelligence Fusion Centers, established after the 9/11 attacks, was able to evolve and adapt to new threats and challenges to security environments. Domestic violent extremism became a serious challenge to U.S. security, especially after the development of social media. The most dangerous representatives of violent domestic extremism are the far-right extremists, who have become very active in the last decade. The far-right groups successfully used social media for organization and propaganda by spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories. This thesis tries to understand the role of state and local fusion centers in the fight against violent far-right extremists. To answer that question, this thesis analyses the intelligence fusion centers’ actions concerning the Capitol insurrection by far-right extremists on January 6, 2021, and disinformation campaigns during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. The findings are that fusion centers played an important role during the Capitol insurrection by exploiting open-source intelligence. On the other hand, fusion centers are not effective against foreign or, especially, domestic disinformation campaigns. Therefore, more federal support is needed to improve the fusion centers' capacity to help contain the spread of disinformation., Captain, Bulgarian Special Operations Forces Brigade, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States, China, and Russia are each competing to develop hypersonic weapons. Can this hypersonic weapon competition be classified as an arms race? Current literature regarding hypersonic weapons treats them as a manifestation of arms racing, but does not offer a comprehensive assessment of arms race dynamics in current hypersonic weapon development. This thesis uses traditional arms race theory and current strategic stability literature to analyze the hypersonic weapon competition and to highlight challenges the competition imposes. This thesis proposes a new arms racing category to classify the hypersonic weapon competition: an incipient arms race. It defines an incipient arms race, examines the importance of recognizing its incipiency, and raises potential problems for policymakers to consider. This thesis recommends that policymakers fully consider the impact that a full arms race would have on global strategic security prior to committing the required resources to offensive and defensive hypersonic weapon systems., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Reversible cyberattacks are similar to ransomware and can provide a new capability in cyber warfare. They can be effective strategically and often ethically superior. Providing incentives in an attack like returning a system to its prior state can encourage a country to comply with demands by the attacker. This research discusses the types of cyberattack that can be effectively reversed, addressing their structure and capacity for reversibility. Traditional cyberattacks and reversible cyberattacks are compared, considering strategic advantages and ethical obligations and when each would be superior. Other issues addressed are the effects of backup methods, the kinds of collateral damage that cannot be reversed, and the need for a second cyberattack to accomplish reversal., Ensign, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Special Feature : Issues of the Iraq War The Iraq War from the Viewpoint of International Law by Hisakazu Fujita…p.1 The Invasion of Iraq, the U.N., the Threat of U.S. Unilateralism and the Spirit of Hiroshima by Christian P. Scherrer …p.2 The Inhumanity of Depleted Uranium Weapons by Kazumi Mizumoto …p.3 Countdown in Korea by Wade L. Huntley …p.4 Publication: HPI, ed., Humanitarian crisis and international intervention : formulae for restoring peace [Jindo kiki to kokusai kainyu: Heiwa kaifuku no shohosen] …p.5 “Hiroshima” and “Lucky Dragon” by Hiroko Takahashi …p.6 HPI Research Forum Anti-Personnel Land Mines by Ian Maddocks…p.7 HPI-TAPRI Workshop …p.7 Forthcoming International Symposium : “Terror from the Sky: Indiscriminate Bombing from Hiroshima to Today”…p.8 Diary …p.8, source:http://www.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp/modules/peace_e/index.php

As cyberspace operations become further integrated into operational planning for nation-states, planners must understand the implications of perishability and obsolescence when deciding how to use cyberweapons. Obsolescence reflects the risk that a vulnerability will be patched without cyberweapon use, while perishability describes the short lifespan of a cyberweapon once it is used; one creates an incentive to use and the other an incentive to stockpile. This thesis examined operating-system vulnerabilities over four years: we quantified the duration between key events of their life cycles as well as the time to release a patch after disclosure. We performed survival analysis for longevity and post-disclosure patch time using Kaplan-Meier curves, then found that the data fit well to Weibull distributions. We also examined the effects of severity and operating system on the lengths of vulnerability life-cycle phases. Our parametric models enable planners to predict the expected survival time of a cyberweapon’s vulnerability, allowing them to determine when to use them, replenish them, and assess windows of opportunity for reuse. This reduces the need to stockpile cyberweapons and creates incentives to use them before the expected survival time. The observed wide variability in longevity values indicates that risk tolerance is important in deciding when to use a cyberweapon.

Many people are in favor of South Korea enhancing nuclear deterrence options (the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or its indigenous nuclear weapons). Since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, a majority of those surveyed in opinion polls have favored enhancing nuclear deterrence. The results of these polls have attracted the attention of domestic and foreign media as well as those in politics and academia. However, questions remain, such as what this public opinion means both implicitly and explicitly, and what factors have prevented public opinion from influencing the government’s policy-making decisions. This thesis focuses on domestic political factors rather than international factors, such as the feasibility and effectiveness of nuclear deterrence options. This thesis argues that public opinion in favor of enhancing nuclear deterrence options did not influence the government’s policy formation due to 1) characteristics for the public opinion in favor of enacting a new policy, and 2) the existence of alternative policies to the enhancing nuclear deterrence options., Dae-wi, Republic of Korea Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis studies the influence of the United States on the Republic of Korea’s Nordpolitik and Neo-Nordpolitik policies, and the interaction between the ROK and the United States in the process of executing the two policies. The Neo-Nordpolitik policy is a foreign and unification policy currently being pursued by the Moon Jae-in government in South Korea, subsequent to the Nordpolitik policy of the Roh Tae-woo administration in the early 1990s. This thesis focuses in-depth on the practical role the United States played in the process of promoting and implementing the two policies. The research for this thesis finds that the United States treated the ROK largely with consistency and consideration over the period spanning these two policies but behaved quite differently toward the two policies themselves. The United States, directly and indirectly, took a supportive position regarding the Nordpolitik policy. On the contrary, the United States, in an indirect manner, has effectively taken a divergent position regarding the Neo-Nordpolitik policy. The thesis explains the different responses of the United States in terms of the two policies’ alignments with U.S. interests in the overall circumstances in the Northeast Asia region, which was strong in the first case but is weak in the current case., Outstanding Thesis, So-ryeong, Republic of Korea Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

North Korea has sought nuclear weapons because acquiring nuclear weapons can offset a state’s inferior power in conventional warfare. North Korea seems to expect "nuclear substitution," which is defined as a situation in which countries with nuclear capabilities enjoy a higher level of security capability than before nuclear development, while reducing the burden of conventional power construction. However, this does not appear applicable to the North. In other words, even if the North is able to acquire nuclear weapons, the burden of conventional power development is not reduced. To grasp the situation, Pakistan can anticipate the North's behavior because Pakistan has similar security situations as North Korea in several aspects. Pakistan has not reduced its conventional power construction since its nuclear armament. This suggests that nuclear substitution may be insufficient; thus, Pakistan is developing a conventional strategy in terms of “nuclear-conventional strategy interaction,” in which conventional forces play a pivotal role in implementing military strategies. This study supposes that the situation in North Korea is similar to that of Pakistan. North Korea could face a dilemma of additional costs for conventional power construction at a time when nuclear compensation is not as effective as expected. Therefore, this study focuses on why the North cannot expect nuclear substitution and which dilemmas are ahead for the North., So-ryeong, Republic of Korea Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Based on U.S. cybersecurity policy, this thesis proposes effective countermeasures for the Republic of Korea (ROK) to prepare for, deter, and recover from cyber threats posed by North Korea. This study identifies the most dangerous North Korean cyber strikes facing South Korea by reviewing several cases of North Korean cyberattacks, the ROK’s countermeasures, and the severity of the damage caused by the attacks. The study builds on the writings of academics and subject matter experts as well as publicly available government policy documents, although specifics on policy are limited due to national security concerns. In addition, the study acknowledges how the cybersecurity paradigm has shifted as a result of U.S. planning, reaction to, and establishment of follow-up measures for an attack of a similar type by a cyber superpower. The strategy of deterring an opponent's operations based on the past has evolved into a strategy of preparing for enemy attacks through information sharing and preemptive defense measures, and counterattack by rapid recovery and identification of the enemy through resilience and with tracking technologies. Although the ROK is a country with well-developed information technology, its cybersecurity knowledge, systems, and technology remain weak in comparison to North Korea's abilities. Consequently, it is conceivable that the ROK can respond effectively to North Korea’s cyber threats by applying the lessons learned from the United States.

The DPRK’s WMD programs pose increasing threats to security in the region. To better understand that challenge, this thesis investigates specifically the consequences for U.S. and ROK strategic postures arising from current DPRK efforts to develop Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) and Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSB). This SLBM/SSB effort bears directly on the ROK Navy’s current efforts to counter wider technology and capability improvements by the DPRK Navy in the undersea domain as well as broader ROK interests in adopting a more global focus for its military posture. The DPRK’s SLBM/SSB ambitions also directly impact U.S. security interests on issues including extended deterrence assurances to the ROK, regional anti-submarine warfare capabilities, and wartime operational control of military forces on the Korean Peninsula. To address its focal concern, the thesis first presents the current status of the DPRK SLBM and SSB programs. The thesis then utilizes these details to estimate DPRK intentions in pursuing these programs. On this basis, the thesis then evaluates recent and prospective ROK responses. Overall, the thesis reaches two conclusions. On the one hand, given U.S. and ROK capacities, the potential threat posed by the DPRK’s aim to deploy nuclear-capable SLBMs will be negligible. However, the DPRK leadership’s overestimation of its SLBM/SSB capabilities could fuel risky provocative behavior eroding regional stability and deepen crisis dangers., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, This project will provide an assessment of the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific to inform the Navy strategy in this theater. The project will examine how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence, escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The findings in this study will be used to assess the implications for US maritime strategy throughout the region. The study will highlight the need for the Navy to rediscover long-forgotten writings on deterrence, coercion, and strategy to analyze the dimensions of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific., N3/N5 - Plans & Strategy, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research applies an Indications and Warning (I&W) analytical philosophy and methodology to the problem of warning of an amphibious movement against the Island of Taiwan. It identifies the tenets and philosophy behind I&W analysis; the general issues that must be addressed to undertake effective I&W analysis related to an amphibious operation against Taiwan; the alternative warning scenarios and various indicators associated with different types of amphibious attack against Taiwan (i.e., a rough template for the conduct of I&W amphibious analysis); and the issues involved in developing an operational response to warning. The research will culminate in an effort to engage senior line officers about the crucial role played by theater commanders when it comes to utilizing I&W intelligence. Warning only works when commanders are prepared to utilize it.

This thesis examines the developing response of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) toward weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) range of threats as a case study of its approach to non-traditional security issues. Over the past two decades, ASEAN-led WMD/CBRN cooperation largely emphasized rhetoric, dialogue, treaties, and confidence-building measures, which were especially notable in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Although ASEAN leaders previously expressed their support toward international cooperation, they initially limited their activities to diplomacy, which frustrated their extra-regional partners. However, ASEAN’s activities within the last few years indicate that it has become more inclined toward developing the capabilities necessary for disrupting threat WMD proliferation efforts and responding to potential WMD/CBRN incidents. In 2018, defense leaders and practitioners of the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting established the Network of ASEAN Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Defense Experts, or the “ASEAN CBR Network.” The following year, the ARF heads of state planned to conduct a tabletop exercise to address WMD disarmament, non-proliferation, and capability generation. This thesis reveals that ASEAN’s approach to region-specific WMD/CBRN security challenges is changing, although this shift has been mostly from diplomacy to consultation, education, and limited exercise planning., Captain, United States Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The defend forward cyber defense strategy is predicated on the notion of persistent engagement with adversaries in gray and red network space, to cause friction for adversaries before they can carry out malicious activity in U.S. network space. The U.S. Cyber Defense Strategy seeks to overmatch adversaries and cause friction by actively engaging adversaries outside of U.S. network space, albeit below the threshold of armed conflict. This strategy is designed to advance the security of U.S. national interests in the cyberspace domain. U.S. security strategies may have varying effects on stability in specific domains and in overall international relations. Defend forward is often criticized for being destabilizing in the cyberspace domain, and as such, security gains from defend forward are potentially outweighed by negative effects of a further destabilized domain. This thesis answers the following questions: What is the impact of defend forward on the security of U.S. interests and overall stability in the cyberspace domain? The thesis seeks to separate the effects that defend forward has on security and stability in order to understand how, and to what extent, the strategy impacts both. This ultimately enables a determination of the immediate and long-term efficacy of defend forward and the role stability has in relation to the security of U.S. interests in the cyberspace domain., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the main security and economic drivers for Japan’s foreign policy responses to U.S.–China competition in the Indo-Pacific region through a historical lens. First, the Cold War era is reviewed to determine the effects of Japan’s post-war status under the occupation of U.S. forces and China’s rapid rise as an economic competitor in the region. Then, the last decade is reviewed to find the trajectory and consistency of Japan’s foreign policy decisions as the U.S. and China progressively competed for hegemonic influence in the region. This thesis found that, while security drivers tended to be consistent throughout these two periods, economic drivers were more diverse because of the radically different set of circumstances Japan has faced while it developed into a more autonomous country. Japan frequently reacted to perceptions of an increasingly hostile or unstable environment and to concerns of an over-dependence on the U.S., particularly during periods where the U.S. was viewed as a potentially unreliable security partner. While Japan's responses did not have a consistent set of economic drivers, there was a common trend of fear of over-dependence on the U.S. and China at different points in time., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.