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Warming temperatures are altering communities and trophic networks across Earth's ecosystems. While the overall influence of warming on food webs is often context-dependent, increasing temperatures are predicted to change communities in two fundamental ways: (1) by reducing average body size and (2) by increasing individual metabolic rates. These warming-induced changes have the potential to influence the distribution of food web fluxes, food web stability, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaping community assembly. Here, we quantified patterns and the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes through stream food webs spanning a broad natural temperature gradient (5-27°C). We then related these patterns to species and community trait distributions of mean body size and population biomass turnover (P:B) within and across streams. We predicted that (1) communities in warmer streams would exhibit smaller body size and higher P:B and (2) organic matter fluxes within warmer communities would increasingly skew toward smaller, higher P:B populations. Across the temperature gradient, warmer communities were characterized by smaller body size (~9% per °C) and higher P:B (~7% faster turnover per °C) populations on average. Additionally, organic matter fluxes within warmer streams were increasingly skewed toward higher P:B populations, demonstrating that warming can restructure organic matter fluxes in both an absolute and relative sense. With warming, the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes was decreasingly likely to arise through the random sorting of species, suggesting stronger selection for traits driving high turnover with increasing temperature. Our study suggests that a warming world will favor energy fluxes through "smaller and faster" populations, and that these changes may be more predictable than previously thought., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM. These contributions have ranged from single-resource (-sector) management to considering the ecosystem holistically in a decision-making framework. Workshop participants also identified impediments to implementing EBM, including: 1) high anticipated costs; 2) a lack of EBM success stories to garner agency buy-in; and 3) difficulty in establishing common objectives among groups with different mandates (e.g., water quality vs. fisheries production). We discussed as a group solutions to overcome these impediments, including construction of a comprehensive, research-ready database, a prototype of which was presented at the workshop. We collectively felt that such a database would offer a cost-effective means to support EBM approaches by facilitating research that could help identify useful ecosystem indicators and management targets and allow for management strategy evaluations that account for risk and uncertainty when contemplating future decision-making.

A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, β = 0.23) and population synchrony (β = -0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (β = 0.73) to secondary consumers (β = 0.54), to primary consumers (β = 0.30) to producers (β = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Intraspecific interactions within predator populations can affect predator-prey dynamics and community structure, highlighting the need to better understand how these interactions respond to anthropogenic change. To this end, we used a half-century (1969-2018) of abundance and size-at-age data from Lake Erie's walleye (Sander vitreus) population to determine how anthropogenic alterations have influenced intraspecific interactions. Before the 1980s, the length-at-age of younger walleye (ages 1 and 2) negatively correlated with older (age 3 +) walleye abundance, signaling a 'density feedback' in which intraspecific competition limited growth. However, after the early 1980s this signal of intraspecific competition disappeared. This decoupling of the density feedback was related to multiple anthropogenic changes, including a larger walleye population resulting from better fisheries management, planned nutrient reductions to improve water quality and transparency, warmer water temperatures, and the proliferation of a non-native fish with novel traits (white perch, Morone americana). We argue that these changes may have reduced competitive interactions by reducing the spatial overlap between older and younger walleye and by introducing novel prey. Our findings illustrate the potential for anthropogenic change to diminish density dependent intraspecific interactions within top predator populations, which has important ramifications for predicting predator dynamics and managing natural resources., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Reducing phosphorus (P) concentrations in aquatic ecosystems, is necessary to improve water quality and reduce the occurrence of harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Managing P reduction requires information on the role rivers play in P transport from land to downstream water bodies, but we have a poor understanding of when and where river systems are P sources or sinks. During the summers of 2019 and 2021, we sampled streambed sediment at 78 sites throughout the Maumee River network (a major source of P loads to Lake Erie) focusing on the zero equilibrium P concentration (EPC 0 ), the soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration at which sediment neither sorbs nor desorbs P. We used structural equation modeling to identify direct and indirect drivers of EPC 0 . Stream sediment was a P sink at 40 % and 67 % of sites in 2019 and 2021, respectively. During both years, spatial variation in EPC 0 was shaped by stream water SRP concentrations, sediment P saturation, and sediment physicochemical characteristics. In turn, SRP concentrations and sediment P saturation (PSR) were influenced by agricultural land use and stream size. Effect of stream size differed among years with stream size having a greater effect on SRP in 2019 and on PSR in 2021. Streambed sediment is currently a net P sink across the sites sampled in the Maumee River network during summer, but sediment at these locations, especially sites in headwater streams, may become a P source if stream water SRP concentrations decrease. Our results improve the understanding of watershed- and reach-scale controls on EPC 0 but also indicate the need for further research on how changes in SRP concentration as a result of conservation management implementation influences the role of streambed sediment in P transport to Lake Erie., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The US Geological Survey, Elsevier B.V. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Cyanobacterial harmful blooms have been increasing worldwide, due in part to excessive phosphorus (P) losses from agriculture-dominated watersheds. Unfortunately, cyanobacteria bloom management is often complicated by uncertainty associated with river P cycling. River P cycling mediates P exports during low flow but has been assumed to be unimportant during high flows. Thus, we examined interactions between dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and suspended sediment P during high flows in the Maumee River network, focusing on March-June Maumee River DRP exports, which fuel recurring cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Erie. We estimate that during 2003-2019 March to June high flow events, P sorption reduced DRP exports by an average of 13-27%, depending upon the colloidal-P:DRP ratio, decreasing the bioavailability of P exports, and potentially constraining cyanobacteria blooms by 13-40%. Phosphorus sorption was likely lower during 2003-2019 than 1975-2002 due to reductions in suspended sediment loads, associated with soil-erosion-minimizing agricultural practices. This unintended outcome of erosion management has likely decreased P sorption, increased DRP exports to Lake Erie, and subsequent cyanobacteria blooms. In other watersheds, DRP-sediment P interactions during high flow could have a positive or negative effect on DRP exports; therefore, P management should consider riverine P cycles, particularly during high flow events, to avoid undermining expensive P mitigation efforts., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Understanding environmental driver-response relationships is critical to the implementation of effective ecosystem-based management. Ecosystems are often influenced by multiple drivers that operate on different timescales and may be nonstationary. In turn, contrasting views of ecosystem state and structure could arise depending on the temporal perspective of analysis. Further, assessment of multiple ecosystem components (e.g., biological indicators) may serve to identify different key drivers and connections. To explore how the timescale of analysis and data richness can influence the identification of driver-response relationships within a large, dynamic ecosystem, this study analyzed long-term (1969-2018) data from Lake Erie (USA-Canada). Data were compiled on multiple biological, physical, chemical, and socioeconomic components of the ecosystem to quantify trends and identify potential key drivers during multiple time intervals (20 to 50 years duration), using zooplankton, bird, and fish community metrics as indicators of ecosystem change. Concurrent temporal shifts of many variables occurred during the 1980s, but asynchronous dynamics were evident among indicator taxa. The strengths and rank orders of predictive drivers shifted among intervals and were sometimes taxon-specific. Drivers related to nutrient loading and lake trophic status were consistently strong predictors of temporal patterns for all indicators; however, within the longer intervals, measures of agricultural land use were the strongest predictors, whereas within shorter intervals, the stronger predictors were measures of tributary or in-lake nutrient concentrations. Physical drivers also tended to increase in predictive ability within shorter intervals. The results highlight how the time interval examined can filter influences of lower-frequency, slower drivers and higher-frequency, faster drivers. Understanding ecosystem change in support of ecosystem-based management requires consideration of both the temporal perspective of analysis and the chosen indicators, as both can influence which drivers are identified as most predictive of ecosystem trends at that timescale., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Ecosystems worldwide have been impacted by multiple anthropogenic stressors, yet efforts to understand and manage these impacts have been hindered by difficulties in disentangling relative stressor effects. Theoretically, the actions of individual stressors can be delineated based on associated changes in functional traits and these relationships should be generalizable across communities comprised of different species. Thus, combining trait perspectives with community composition data could help to identify the relative influence of different stressors. We evaluated the utility of this combined approach by quantifying shifts in fish species and trait composition in Lake Erie during the past 50 years (1969-2018) in relation to human-driven changes in nutrient inputs, climate warming, and biological invasions. Species and trait shifts were also compared between two Lake Erie basins, which differ in their environmental and biological characteristics, to identify trait responses that were generalizable across different ecosystems versus those that were context dependent. Our analyses revealed consistent species changes across basins, and shifts in feeding and thermal traits, that were primarily associated with altered nutrient inputs (oligotrophication followed by eutrophication). We found no or inconsistent trait-based evidence for the effects of warming and two invasive fishes. Context-dependent trait responses were also evident; nutrient inputs were related to shifts in species tolerant of turbidity in the shallow, eutrophic western basin, which contrasted to shifts between benthopelagic and benthic species in the deeper central basin. Our results reveal the dominant effects of specific stressors on a large freshwater lake and offer a framework for combining species-based and trait-based approaches to delineate the impacts of simultaneous stressors on communities of perturbed natural ecosystems., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)