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Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

Coastal defences such as dikes are increasingly pressured by climate change. Increasing storm surge, extreme rainfall and periods of draught requires evermore strengthening of dikes to maintain flood risk standards. Conventional dike strengthening (i.e., heightening and/or widening) will be either structurally or financially unfeasible. Therefor, engineers are exploring other, more sustainable, methods to ensure future flood safety. A promising method is incorporating tidal marshes in the coastal defence system. Tidal marshes reduce dike loads by wave attenuation, increase bio diversity and ecology and under the right circumstances are able to grow with sea level rise. Moreover, in case of dike failure, resulting in a dike breach and inundation of the hinterland, tidal marshes have been shown to reduce breach erosion rates. This reduction positively affects flood risk. However, in order to quantitatively estimate the effect, dike breach models need to also model tidal marsh erosion. In this study we tested a mature tidal marsh, in-situ, in winter conditions under high flow velocities (up to 2.5 m/s) to measure the erosion and estimate erodibility. We measured little erosion, order millimeters after a cumulative 2-2.5 hours. Small-scale experiments, such as the Jet Erosion Test, showed high resistance to erosion (85-140 Pa) and large varying erodibility (6.5-45 cm3/N·s). By estimating the shear stresses acting on the soil during the experiment we compare the data with the small-scale results. The comparison gives insight in whether the small-scale experiment results can be accurately translated to full-scale erosion. Also, the experiment showed which (erosion) mechanisms are important for tidal marshes during a dike breach., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Estuaries are among the most densely populated and heavily utilised regions in the world, where crucial functions – e.g., freshwater availability and water safety – strongly relate to the natural dynamics of the system. When developing nature-based solutions to safeguard these essential functions, a thorough understanding of estuarine dynamics is required. This study describes an elaborate sensitivity analysis on the salt intrusion length using an idealised estuary, which is parametrically designed using key estuary-scale parameters – e.g., river discharge and tidal flats – to cover a wide range of estuary classes. We were able to systematically investigate such a wide range of estuary classes due to the combination of (1) state-of-the-art hydrodynamic modelling software, (2) high performance computing, and (3) reduction and analysis techniques using machine learning. The results show that the extent of the estuarine salt intrusion length is largely determined by four estuarine features: (1) river discharge; (2) cross-sectional area (especially water depth); (3) tidal damping/amplification; and (4) tidal asymmetry. In general, the salt intrusion length shows clear correlations with (a combination of) estuary-scale parameters, which all put an upper limit on the salt intrusion length. These relations provide crucial insights for successful development of nature-based solutions to mitigate salt intrusion in estuarine environments., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Hydraulic Engineering

All around the world, deltas are among the most densely populated and heavily utilised regions, where crucial functions, such as freshwater availability and safety against flooding, strongly relate to the natural dynamics of the system. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the estuarine system is crucial, especially when developing nature-based solutions for safeguarding these essential functions for today’s society as well as future generations. To better understand the effect of different estuarine parameters on salt intrusion, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been executed based on an idealised estuary layout. The idealised estuary is parametrically designed using thirteen parameters that represent both boundary conditions and geometric features, such as river discharge and water depth. Subsequently, the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM) model has been used to determine the salt intrusion, allowing the exploration of a wide range of estuary layouts., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Civil Engineering & Geosciences

In recent years, coastal management has been facing new challenges: socio-economic growth and consequent climate change impose new boundary conditions pushing coastal systems towards unseen states. For adaptation and mitigation strategies as well as risk management, the resilience of systems to these projected changes must be tested and quantified using predictive tools, given the scarcity of observations. Process-based models, which limit the number of assumptions, are the preferred tools. However, these models are computationally expensive and therefore unattractive for global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Input and model reduction techniques, as well as behavioural empirical models, have been widely used to overcome these computational difficulties. In this paper, we propose a process-based hybrid workflow—that combines statistical and machine learning with a process-based numerical model—to provide sensitivity analyses on complex systems. As an example we explore salt intrusion in estuaries. The novelty of the method presented is the implementation of an adaptive sampling technique of numerical experiments with a process-based hydrodynamic model, and the training of a neural network to augment the set of numerical runs executed. The first uses predictive uncertainty to automatically explore the response of the complex system to varying environmental boundary conditions and geomorphological configurations. The second is trained to provide system responses around the sampled points. This exploration is closed by simulating the extremes in the output space as found by a genetic algorithm. This scheme is shown to be highly efficient in non-linear, heteroscedastic, and highly non-stationary systems., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services of coastal protection and chemical habitat formation that could help mitigate the impact of sea level rise and ocean acidification. However, the intensification of hydrodynamic forces caused by sea level rise, in addition to habitat degradation threaten the provision of these ecosystem services. With quantitative field measurements of the coastal protection and chemical habitat formation services of seagrass meadows, we statistically model the relationships between hydrodynamic forces, vegetation density and the provision of these ecosystem services. Utilising a high-resolution hydrodynamic model that simulates end of the century hydrodynamic conditions and three scenarios of coral reef degradation (i.e., keep up, remain or loss) we quantify how the environmental conditions within a tropical bay will change given changes to the provision of ecosystem services. Our study shows that increasing hydrodynamic forces lead to a seafloor made up of a larger grain size that is increasingly unstable and more vulnerable to erosion. The loss of a fringing reef leads to larger hydrodynamic forces entering the bay, however, the 0.87 m increase in depth due to sea-level rise reduces the bed shear stress in shallower areas, which limits the change in the ecosystem services provided by the current benthic seagrass meadow. Loss of seagrass constitutes the greatest change in a bay ecosystem, resulting in the sediment surface where seagrass existed becoming unstable and the median sediment grain size increasing by 5-7 %. The loss of seagrass also leads to the disappearance of the unique fluctuating chemical habitat, which leaves the surrounding community vulnerable to ocean acidification. A reduction or complete loss of these ecosystem services would impact the entire community assemblage while also leaving the surrounding coastline vulnerable to erosion, thus exacerbating negative effects brought about by climate change., Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Landscape Architecture, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Coastal Engineering

Salt marshes can contribute to coastal protection, but the magnitude of the protection depends on the width of the marsh. The cross-shore width of the marsh is to a large extent determined by the delicate balance between seaward expansion and landward retreat. The influence of the magnitude of daily occurring mild weather conditions and sediment availability on the variability of salt marsh width has not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates how the magnitude of homogeneous hydrodynamic forcing, combined with sediment availability, affects the biophysical development, and more specifically retreat and expansion of salt marshes. The dynamic extent of the salt marsh is assessed by modeling online-coupled hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and vegetation growth using the numerical Delft3D-Flexible Mesh model, and a vegetation growth module. Simulated patterns around the salt marsh edge resembled field observations, as well as the simulated temporal variability of the lateral position of the salt marsh edge. In the model, the salt marsh extended seaward at low wave forcing (0.00 m; 0.05 m), and retreated landward at higher wave forcing (0.10 m; 0.15 m). With increasing physical stress, the salt marsh edge was found at lower elevations, indicating an unhealthy system with a retreating marsh edge due to vegetation mortality, whereas decreasing physical stresses result in a higher salt marsh edge, enabling expansion. This balance suggests the importance of response time of vegetation to physical stress. Yet, the salt marsh forced with higher waves was able to switch from a retreating extent retrogradational to an expansional behavior as sediment supply increased.

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

Biological traits of benthic macroinvertebrates from a large area of the North Sea soft sediments were used to explore habitat occupancy within seascapes of contrasting hydrodynamics. The area, the Dutch sector of the North Sea, is mainly composed of 2 habitats: shallow dynamic bottoms of heterogeneous geomorphologies and deep homogeneous muddy bottoms. Higher within-habitat heterogeneity was hypothesized to more specifically select benthic life strategies according to environmental filtering, i.e. through the action of abiotic forces. Functional community patterns were explored through the RLQ method, which relates habitat and trait variables, at different spatial scales of specific seascape heterogeneity, and functional diversity indices were used to shed light on community assembly mechanisms. Locally, 3 associations between habitat characteristics and biological traits were shown to correspond with predictions of life history theories, whereas only 2 emerged when considering all types of seascapes. This spatial scale-dependence was explained by abiotic alternations masked over the larger scale at which all the existing strategies could not be properly disentangled. The relative composition in strategies obeyed specific assembly rules as identified by functional diversity indices. Seascape geomorphology was locally discriminant of functional patterns, and could account for biodiversification, much beyond basic taxonomic counts. Whereas habitats of higher physical stability hosted the taxonomically richest communities, stress or disturbance frequency increased functional variations within communities due to different strategist habitat occupancies. This study proposes a generic mechanism of benthic community structuring in soft sediment shelves.

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances., Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Salt marshes can contribute to coastal protection, but the magnitude of the protection depends on the width of the marsh. The cross-shore width of the marsh is to a large extent determined by the delicate balance between seaward expansion and landward retreat. The influence of the magnitude of daily occurring mild weather conditions and sediment availability on the variability of salt marsh width has not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates how the magnitude of homogeneous hydrodynamic forcing, combined with sediment availability, affects the biophysical development, and more specifically retreat and expansion of salt marshes. The dynamic extent of the salt marsh is assessed by modeling online-coupled hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and vegetation growth using the numerical Delft3D-Flexible Mesh model, and a vegetation growth module. Simulated patterns around the salt marsh edge resembled field observations, as well as the simulated temporal variability of the lateral position of the salt marsh edge. In the model, the salt marsh extended seaward at low wave forcing (0.00 m; 0.05 m), and retreated landward at higher wave forcing (0.10 m; 0.15 m). With increasing physical stress, the salt marsh edge was found at lower elevations, indicating an unhealthy system with a retreating marsh edge due to vegetation mortality, whereas decreasing physical stresses result in a higher salt marsh edge, enabling expansion. This balance suggests the importance of response time of vegetation to physical stress. Yet, the salt marsh forced with higher waves was able to switch from a retreating extent retrogradational to an expansional behavior as sediment supply increased., Environmental Fluid Mechanics

As a response to climate change and sea-level rise, new nourishment strategies for low-lying sandy coasts are developed. These interventions affect the habitat quality of coastal ecosystems for benthic communities. Unraveling the relationship between benthic fauna and their environment facilitates the design of sustainable management strategies for the coastal ecosystem. At the ebb-tidal delta of Ameland, The Netherlands, a unique dataset of 166 benthic and sediment samples is collected and allowed for an investigation of the macrobenthic fauna distribution at the spatial scale of morphological features. The benthic community at the ebb tidal delta is composed of species capable of withstanding the dynamic nature of these sandy coastal ecosystems. Despite the dynamic environment, the geomorphology of the ebb-tidal delta is reflected in the benthic species distribution. Distinct species assemblages were identified, covering a gradient of physical stress from extremely exposed to waves or currents, to relatively low energetic environments such as found on the delta plane seaward of the ebb-tidal delta terminal lobe. This gradient is reflected in the median grain size, organic matter content, and oxygenation of the sediment. A second gradient distinguishes well-sorted, mainly wave-exposed sediments from less well-sorted, mainly current-exposed sites. The functional characteristics of the benthic fauna show a clear contrast between the three most exposed, and the three most sheltered assemblages. Small, short-lived, surface deposit-feeding, highly mobile, burrowing organisms dominate in the most exposed sites, whereas with increasing shelter also larger, long-lived, filter-feeding and sessile organisms become more dominant. The functional characteristics suggest that the fauna of the most exposed sites will likely show a fast recovery of disturbance by sand nourishments. A much longer-lasting effect can be expected on sheltered parts of the ebb-tidal delta., Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Nature-based strategies, such as wave attenuation by tidal marshes, are increasingly proposed as a complement to mitigate the risks of failure of engineered flood defense structures such as levees. However, recent analysis of historic coastal storms revealed smaller dike breach dimensions if there were natural, high tidal marshes in front of the dikes. Since tidal marshes naturally only experience weak flow velocities (~0-0.3 ms-1 during normal spring tides), we lack direct observations on the stability of tidal marsh sediments and vegetation under extreme flow velocities (order of several ms-1) as may occur when a dike behind a marsh breaches. As a first approximation, the stability of a tidal marsh sediment bed and winter-state vegetation under high flow velocities were tested in a flume. Marsh monoliths were excavated from Phragmites australis marshes in front of a dike along the Scheldt estuary (Dutch-Belgian border area) and installed in a 10 m long flume test section. Both sediment bed and vegetation responses were quantified over 6 experimental runs under high flow velocities up to 1.75 ms-1 and water depth up to 0.35 m for 2 hours. These tests showed that even after a cumulative 12 hours exposure to high flow velocities, erosion was limited to as little as a few millimeters. Manual removal of the aboveground vegetation did not enhance the erosion either. Present findings may be related to the strongly consolidated, clay- and silt-rich sediment and P. australis root system in this experiment. During the flow exposure, the P. australis stems were strongly bent by the water flow, but the majority of all shoots recovered rapidly when the flow had stopped. Although present results may not be blindly extrapolated to all other marsh types, they do provide a strong first indication that marshes can remain stable under high flow conditions, and confirm the potential of well-developed tidal marshes as a valuable extra natural barrier reducing flood discharges towards

The sediment composition of the seabed governs its mobility, hence determining sediment transport and morphological evolution of estuaries and tidal basins. Bed sediments often consist of mixtures of sand and mud, with spatial gradients in the sand/mud content. This study aims at increasing the understanding of processes driving the sediment composition in tidal basins, focusing on depositional processes. We show that bed sediments in the Wadden Sea tend to be either mud-dominated or sand-dominated, resulting in a bimodal distribution of the mud content where the two modes represent equilibrium conditions. The equilibria depend primarily on the sediment deposition fluxes, with bimodality originating from the dependence of suspended sand/mud concentrations on the local bed composition. Our analysis shows that bimodality is a phenomenon that is not only specific for the Wadden Sea; it can be expected for a wide range of suspended sediment concentrations and thus also in other systems worldwide.

The sediment composition of the seabed governs its mobility, hence determining sediment transport and morphological evolution of estuaries and tidal basins. Bed sediments often consist of mixtures of sand and mud, with spatial gradients in the sand/mud content. This study aims at increasing the understanding of processes driving the sediment composition in tidal basins, focusing on depositional processes. We show that bed sediments in the Wadden Sea tend to be either mud-dominated or sand-dominated, resulting in a bimodal distribution of the mud content where the two modes represent equilibrium conditions. The equilibria depend primarily on the sediment deposition fluxes, with bimodality originating from the dependence of suspended sand/mud concentrations on the local bed composition. Our analysis shows that bimodality is a phenomenon that is not only specific for the Wadden Sea; it can be expected for a wide range of suspended sediment concentrations and thus also in other systems worldwide., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Nature-based strategies, such as wave attenuation by tidal marshes, are increasingly proposed as a complement to mitigate the risks of failure of engineered flood defense structures such as levees. However, recent analysis of historic coastal storms revealed smaller dike breach dimensions if there were natural, high tidal marshes in front of the dikes. Since tidal marshes naturally only experience weak flow velocities (~0-0.3 ms-1 during normal spring tides), we lack direct observations on the stability of tidal marsh sediments and vegetation under extreme flow velocities (order of several ms-1) as may occur when a dike behind a marsh breaches. As a first approximation, the stability of a tidal marsh sediment bed and winter-state vegetation under high flow velocities were tested in a flume. Marsh monoliths were excavated from Phragmites australis marshes in front of a dike along the Scheldt estuary (Dutch-Belgian border area) and installed in a 10 m long flume test section. Both sediment bed and vegetation responses were quantified over 6 experimental runs under high flow velocities up to 1.75 ms-1 and water depth up to 0.35 m for 2 hours. These tests showed that even after a cumulative 12 hours exposure to high flow velocities, erosion was limited to as little as a few millimeters. Manual removal of the aboveground vegetation did not enhance the erosion either. Present findings may be related to the strongly consolidated, clay- and silt-rich sediment and P. australis root system in this experiment. During the flow exposure, the P. australis stems were strongly bent by the water flow, but the majority of all shoots recovered rapidly when the flow had stopped. Although present results may not be blindly extrapolated to all other marsh types, they do provide a strong first indication that marshes can remain stable under high flow conditions, and confirm the potential of well-developed tidal marshes as a valuable extra natural barrie, Coastal Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Epifauna and infauna are often sampled by different types of sampling devices including grabs, and dredges, depending on various factors such as local environmental conditions, research questions and available budget. Because grabs and dredges have a different species-specific selectivity, both methods could be complementary but for some research questions they could give comparable results. In this study, a comparison is made between macrobenthos (epifauna and infauna) sampled simultaneously by a Van Veen grab and a quantitative benthic dredge, based on a large dataset that was collected from 2010 to 2019 as part of an extensive monitoring program to study the impact of the Sand Motor, a mega beach nourishment that was implemented in 2011 on the sandy North Sea coast in the Netherlands. Because of the larger mesh size of the sieve in the benthic dredge (5 mm) compared to the Van Veen (1 mm), only larger mollusks, echinoderms and crustaceans are identified in the dredge samples. This resulted in a lower number of taxa and average densities in the 676 benthic dredge samples (42 taxa and 98.7 ind. m−2, respectively) compared to the 636 Van Veen samples (228 taxa and 1380.9 ind. m−2, respectively). Due to the larger sampling area of the benthic dredge (10–15 m2) compared to the Van Veen (0.1 m2) the chance to encounter a species is higher in a benthic dredge than in a Van Veen grab sample. Although the benthic dredge only samples a subset of the benthic community that is sampled by the Van Veen grab, multivariate (nMDS) analysis of the data showed remarkable similarities between Van Veen and benthic dredge samples with major gradients correlated to water depth and temporal changes in environmental conditions due to the presence of the Sand Motor. This suggests that both techniques are indicative for the spatial variation and development of the macrobenthic community., Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Although tidal flats appear homogeneous from a distance, morphological variations are found on various spatial scales. These are driven by physical and/or biological processes. In this paper, we consider the creeks that are present on fringing tidal flats and which are orientated approximately perpendicular to the main channel. To explain why these creeks occur, we analysed high-resolution aerial pictures and yearly measured LiDAR data of the Ems-Dollard and Western Scheldt estuaries, located in the Netherlands. We selected nine bare fringing tidal flats, with and without creeks in both estuaries. Subsequently, we related the flat shape to the creek occurrence by evaluating cross-sections of tidal flats from the two estuaries. Finally, we studied how the flat shape affects the cross-shore flow velocity with a 1D numerical model to link creek occurrence to tidal flow. The results show highest ebb velocities, the largest velocity gradients and the largest erosion potential at the transition area between the lower and the upper flat. The milder the slope of the upper flat and the shorter the transition zone, the larger the flow velocities. Based on the data analysis and numerical model outcomes, we conclude that the conditions are favourable for creeks on convex-up intertidal flats with a sharp transition between the upper part and lower part of the flat and that they are predominantly found in this transition zone. We finally argue that these tidal creeks are not only a consequence of the tidal flat profile, but also affect the (equilibrium) profile of the tidal flat., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics