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This paper analyses key macroeconomic repercussions of the global pandemic and geo-political crises in terms of growing recessionary and inflationary pressures, and finally, the potential occurrence of stagflation. The aim of this paper is to primarily analyse the stagflation shocks of the 70s, afterwards, compare them with the current crisis for the period January 2020 - July 2022 using the example of selected developed economies (USA, Germany and France). Using descriptive analysis, it was shown that in the observed period inflationary and recessionary pressures existed in USA, Germany and France. However, those pressures could not be identified as stagflation, since that were not present simultaneously. Namely, during the pandemic crisis, recessionary pressures were present, since then the GDP growth decreased till first quarter of 2021 in analysed economies, while inflation rates were stable. On the other hand, with the recovery of economies in the second quarter of 2021, inflationary pressures became stronger and intensified by geo-political crisis. Therefore, it seems that the most visible anomaly of the global economic system in 2022 is the presence of inflationary pressures.

After the global economic crisis, a broad consensus has emerged that membership in the Eurozone exerts a strong pressure on fiscal policy, since it is characterized by the dichotomy of common monetary policy and heterogeneous fiscal policies. This paper analyzes the performance of fiscal policies, highlighting the nexus between the public revenues and public expenditure from the angle of 19 Eurozone economies in the period 2010q1-2020q4. The research is based on Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) and Juodis, Karavias & Sarafidis (2021) Granger non-causality tests in macro panels in order to test causality direction, as well as Westerlund errorcorrection-based panel cointegration test to analyze fiscal sustainability. Having in mind the heterogeneity and divergency of the Eurozone members, sub-samples were estimated, concerning the core, the periphery and the emerging Eurozone economies. The results imply that all Eurozone economies achieve weak fiscal sustainability, while all economies from the group of Eurozone periphery applied "tax and spend" hypothesis. The empirical finding could be related to the fact that Eurozone periphery economies were hit harder by the global and sovereign debt crisis, and that implemented austerity and bail-out programs were adequate, thus resulting in sustainable fiscal position, reducing heterogeneity of fiscal performance within the Eurozone economies.

In recent years, fiscal policy in the Eurozone (EZ) has faced challenges posed by the strong and rapid increase in inflation as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other geo-political crises. Due to the fear of "fiscal inflation" present during episodes of fiscal stimulus during the pandemic crisis, this paper assesses the relationship between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in developed EZ economies, taking into consideration the rise in energy prices as a control variable. This study considers the econometric framework of heterogeneous, non-stationary panels (Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimators). Using quarterly panel data for the period 2015q1–2024q1, the results show that, in the long run, the effects of fiscal policy on inflation are insignificant. However, covering only the pandemic and other geo-political crises (2020q1–2024q1), research shows a significant negative long-run relationship between fiscal expenditure and inflation and heterogeneous short-run fiscal adjustments due to the lack of a fiscal union in the EU economies. Hence, accompanied by monetary policy, the discretionary response of fiscal policy to inflationary shock was oriented in the same direction—the reduction in inflationary pressures during a geo-political crisis. Fiscal policy mitigated inflationary pressures in these recent crises, while in the long run, it did not affect nominal variables, indicating that there is no evidence of fiscal inflation in the sample of EZ economies during a stabilization period or under crisis conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines key driving forces of inflationary pressures, taking into account supply and demand side determinants and actions of policy makers, during the pandemic and geopolitical crises in the Eurozone. Using heterogeneous nonstationary macro-panel models, especially the Mean Group (MG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methods in the period 2020q1–2024q4, it is concluded that the dominant determination of inflationary pressures comes from the supply side. There is a long-run positive equilibrium relationship between the growth of energy prices and the growth of the consumer price index (CPI), and between the index representing supply bottlenecks (SBI) and the growth of CPI, while the relationship with the unemployment rate is insignificant. Also, the existence of a long-run equilibrium between the interest rate and CPI is homogeneous due to the unique monetary policy on a sample, and negative, indicating the efficiency of that policy. However, the speed of adjustment of individual economies is heterogeneous, and in the case of Greece and Ireland, insignificant. The heterogeneous or insignificant response of Eurozone member states, especially related to core-periphery asymmetry, refers to the vulnerability and structural weakness of the Eurozone economies, and the need for deeper integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The global trends in taxation have generated a "race to the bottom" in capital income taxation, which is intended to be stopped by OECD through the introduction of a global minimum tax rate (15% of effective average tax rate—EATR). The question is whether the defined tax competition floor would have heterogeneous implications in different economies. The aim of this paper is to examine the long-term relationship between the EATR and FDI, and between the EATR and budget balance (BB) in European OECD economies in the period 1998–2021, using non-stationary, heterogeneous panels. According to the linear PMG model, a significant negative long-term relationship was revealed between the EATR and FDI and between the EATR and BB, while the error-correction parameters are significant and heterogeneous, showing that the speed of adjustments towards equilibrium is different across the analyzed economies. However, the nonlinear PMG results revealed asymmetry as the magnitude of the influence of an EATR reduction has a greater effect on FDI attraction and deficit deepening than an increase in the EATR on the opposite tendencies of FDI and deficit. Policymakers are facing a trade-off related to FDI attraction/budget deficit deepening when making decisions in relation to the EATR, and they are mostly oriented toward FDI inflow using EATR reduction in the analyzed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the single market within the European Union (EU), capital mobility has created many challenges in the field of tax policy, especially whether taxes should be coordinated or governments should retain fiscal sovereignty for the sake of tax competitiveness. In order to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), emerging EU economies most often choose the policy of tax reduction and particularly lowering the effective average tax rates (EATR). The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of changes in the EATR on the decision to localize FDI in emerging EU economies in the period 1998–2021, in the framework of cross-sectional dependent, non-stationary, heterogeneous panels. Using the (Pooled) Mean Group estimator, the long-run relationship between the EATR and the FDI is revealed. The error-correction parameters are significant and heterogeneous, showing that the speed of adjustments towards equilibrium is different, but the highest in Estonia. Accession to the EU contributed faster adjustments to the long-run relationship in the majority of the emerging EU economies, while a broader set of potential determinants of FDI localization is taken into consideration and estimated using the Panel-corrected standard error method. Results showed de facto tax competitiveness in the group of emerging EU economies, instead of de jure tax coordination in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]