4 results on '"David Huffman"'
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2. Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers
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David Huffman, Collin Raymond, and Julia Shvets
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Economics and Econometrics - Abstract
A long-standing puzzle is how overconfidence can persist in settings characterized by repeated feedback. This paper studies managers who participate repeatedly in a high-powered tournament incentive system, learning relative performance each time. Using reduced form and structural methods we find that (i) managers make over-confident predictions about future performance; (ii) managers have overly positive memories of past performance; (iii) the two phenomena are linked at an individual level. Our results are consistent with models of motivated beliefs in which individuals are motivated to distort memories of feedback and preserve unrealistic expectations. (JEL D82, D83, J33, L25, L81, M52, M54) more...
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
Catalog
3. Patience and Comparative Development
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Uwe Sunde, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, Armin Falk, David Huffman, Gerrit Meyerheim, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, and Macro, International & Labour Economics
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Economics and Econometrics - Abstract
This article studies the relationship between patience and comparative development through a combination of reduced-form analyses and model estimations. Based on a globally representative dataset on time preference in 76 countries, we document two sets of stylized facts. First, patience is strongly correlated with per capita income and the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and productivity. These correlations hold across countries, sub-national regions, and individuals. Second, the magnitude of the patience elasticity strongly increases in the level of aggregation. To provide an interpretive lens for these patterns, we analyse an overlapping generations model in which savings and education decisions are endogenous to patience, aggregate production is characterized by capital-skill complementarities, and productivity implicitly depends on patience through a human capital externality. In our model estimations, general equilibrium effects alone account for a non-trivial share of the observed amplification effects, and an extension to human capital externalities can quantitatively match the empirical evidence. more...
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- 2022
4. Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses
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Christopher H. Guiterman, Rachel M. Gregg, Laura A. E. Marshall, Jill J. Beckmann, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Jon E. Keeley, Anthony C. Caprio, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Collin Haffey, R. Keala Hagmann, Stephen T. Jackson, Ann M. Lynch, Ellis Q. Margolis, Christopher Marks, Marc D. Meyer, Hugh Safford, Alexandra Dunya Syphard, Alan Taylor, Craig Wilcox, Dennis Carril, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, David Huffman, Jose Iniguez, Nicole A. Molinari, Christina Restaino, and Jens T. Stevens more...
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Forestry ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
Background Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses, and outcomes. Results Participants in two workshops provided 11 descriptive case studies and 61 examples of VTC from their own field observations. These experiences demonstrate the extent and complexity of ecological reorganization across the region. High-severity fire was the predominant driver of VTC in semi-arid coniferous forests. By a large margin, these forests converted to shrubland, with fewer conversions to native or non-native herbaceous communities. Chaparral and sagebrush areas nearly always converted to non-native grasses through interactions among land use, climate, and fire. Management interventions in VTC areas most often attempted to reverse changes, although we found that these efforts cover only a small portion of high-severity burn areas undergoing VTC. Some areas incurred long (>10 years) observational periods prior to initiating interventions. Efforts to facilitate VTC were rare, but could cover large spatial areas. Conclusions Our findings underscore that type conversion is a common outcome of high-severity wildland fire in the southwestern US. Ecosystem managers are frontline observers of these far-reaching and potentially persistent changes, making their experiences valuable in further developing intervention strategies and research agendas. As its drivers increase with climate change, VTC appears increasingly likely in many ecological contexts and may require management paradigms to transition as well. Approaches to VTC potentially include developing new models of desired conditions, the use of experimentation by managers, and broader implementation of adaptive management strategies. Continuing to support and develop science-manager partnerships and peer learning groups will help to shape our response to ongoing rapid ecological transformations. more...
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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