1. A workflow for rapid time-dependent estimates of earthquake-induced mass-movement likelihood and associated impacts in Switzerland
- Author
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Cauzzi, C., Knupfer, J., Wiemer, S., Danciu, L., Papadopoulos, A., and Kästli, P.
- Abstract
Earthquake-induced mass movements are a substantial threat to mountainous areas in seismically active regions like the Valais, the most seismically hazardous region of Switzerland. We present a strategy to deliver rapid time-dependent predictions of mass-movement likelihoods in the Valais and their impacts on lifelines in near real-time during major earthquake sequences. We rely on the Swiss Seismic Hazard and ShakeMap frameworks and on the availability of a Swiss-specific empirical model for the prediction of seismically induced mass-movement likelihoods, and combine them with rapid earthquake shaking estimates based on short-term seismicity forecasts following a triggering seismic event. The obtained probabilities of mass-movement are spatially associated with exposed assets in the region to estimate the associated risk. This procedure can provide stakeholders with alarm levels and other decision-making tools based on risk-cost-benefit considerations for critical lifelines., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
- Published
- 2023
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