Search

The Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict is an ongoing struggle for influence in the region that has created uncertainty, affected oil prices and regional economics. This paper uses wavelet analysis to examine the frequency and time-varying co-movement and casual nexus between petroleum prices (OP) and financial liquidness (MS) with and without geopolitical risk (GPR). The aim is to test the validity of the monetary equilibrium model from 1988 to 2019. The model is supported by the findings, as both short and medium-term association is found between OP and MS at high frequencies in the presence of GPR. We find a medium-term association between OP and MS in the absence of GPR. The paper's overall conclusion suggests that GPR affects OP and OP, in turn, impact MS. Diversifying economic activities to minimize oil dependency, which is sensitive to external shocks, is suggested as a mitigation solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric power shortfalls driven by inadequate generation, electrification, and lack of clarity on the planning side have worsened Pakistan's power crises that deformed economic growth. This study focuses on the estimation of the electricity supply and demand in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) perspective and on the main reasons that motivate a transition to green resources. This paper estimated the demand-supply gap (1990–2015) and forecasted it (2016–2035), including CPEC projects using the System Dynamics model. The results show that the power demand will be met by 2021, fact highlighted also by a battery of robustness tests. We find that the CPEC efforts will increase energy growth from 4.5% (1990–2015) to 14.6% (2016–2035). The capacity growth will increase from 4.9% to 12.3% during 2016–2035. Moreover, the current renewable energy production and investment (Wind & Solar Power) will not help achieve policy targets. A total investment of $4806.69 million is required to meet policy targets, while a value of $57,683 million is needed for a complete conversion to green energy. The study highlights the challenges on the green energy path and discusses policies needed to overcome these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Venezuela's oil-dependent economy is severely affected by geopolitical instability, causing hyperinflation and devaluation of the national currency. Therefore, this study intends to examine the nexus among geopolitics, exchange rate, and oil prices by employing the Wavelet analysis for a sample ranging from 2008 to 2019. The results reveal that oil prices and exchange rates have a bidirectional causal relation from 2017 to 2019. Similarly, geopolitics and oil prices cause each other from 2017 to 2019. A medium-run co-movement between geopolitical risk and exchange rates is observed from 2015 to 2019. We notice that oil prices and exchange rates exhibit a causal relation from 2008 to 2011 and from 2018 to 2019. The results support the theoretical model and are in line with the actual dynamics of the economy. Based on our results, we conjecture that Venezuela has to reduce its oil dependence since it is susceptible to geopolitical risk, avoid regional conflicts, and manage exchange rates to achieve sustainable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]