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Reverse epidemiology is a mathematical modelling tool used to ascertain information about the source of a pathogen, given the spatial and temporal distribution of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. In the context of a deliberately released pathogen, such as Bacillus anthracis (the disease-causing organism of anthrax), this can allow responders to quickly identify the location and timing of the release, as well as other factors such as the strength of the release, and the realized wind speed and direction at release. These estimates can then be used to parameterise a predictive mechanistic model, allowing for estimation of the potential scale of the release, and to optimise the distribution of prophylaxis. In this paper we present two novel approaches to reverse epidemiology, and demonstrate their utility in responding to a simulated deliberate release of B. anthracis in ten locations in the UK and compare these to the standard grid-search approach. The two methods—a modified MCMC and a Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network—are able to identify the source location and timing of the release with significantly better accuracy compared to the grid-search approach. Further, the neural network method is able to do inference on new data significantly quicker than either the grid-search or novel MCMC methods, allowing for rapid deployment in time-sensitive outbreaks. Author summary: In this paper we demonstrate three methods for estimating the source location and timing of a deliberate release of Bacillus anthracis based on the temporal and spatial distribution of cases. Two of our proposed methods, a modified MCMC approach and a neural network based approach, provide significant improvements over previous methods by directly addressing the problematic parameter-likelihood surface, and, in the case of the neural network approach, addressing the slow deployment speeds of existing methods. Our results represent a major step forward in the accuracy and speed of epidemiological back-calculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of mobile phone devices leaves digital traces which include personal data of the user's location and can be used to produce aggregated and anonymised location data. There is widespread interest in utilising different types of mobile phone location data to optimise emergency health responses within a range of settings, however until now there has been no qualitative research exploring public opinions on sharing such data. A qualitative study with 40 millennials (born between 1981–2000) across six focus groups were conducted before and after widespread news reports about the leaking of personal data on social media and a major public health incident in the UK. Thematic analysis was used to identify themes in the data. Analysis identified four main themes and five subthemes suggesting the main concepts related to attitudes and concerns were 'Control', 'Trust', 'Risks to sharing' and 'Pros and cons of data sharing'. Millennials were generally accepting of sharing different types of location data with ambulance services and a public health agency if they were able to give explicit consent and retain some personal control towards how their data would be used. The results suggest that policymakers who wish to use aggregated and anonymized mobile phone location data to improve healthcare services should focus on reassurance about how data will be used and promoting public trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COSMOS-UK observation network has been providing field-scale soil moisture and hydrometeorological measurements across the UK since 2013. At the time of publication a total of 51 COSMOS-UK sites have been established, each delivering high-temporal resolution data in near-real time. Each site utilizes a cosmic-ray neutron sensor, which counts epithermal neutrons at the land surface. These measurements are used to derive field-scale near-surface soil water content, which can provide unique insight for science, industry, and agriculture by filling a scale gap between localized point soil moisture and large-scale satellite soil moisture datasets. Additional soil physics and meteorological measurements are made by the COSMOS-UK network including precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, soil heat flux, wind speed and direction, and components of incoming and outgoing radiation. These near-real-time observational data can be used to improve the performance of hydrological models, validate remote sensing products, improve hydro-meteorological forecasting, and underpin applications across a range of other scientific fields. The most recent version of the COSMOS-UK dataset is publically available at 10.5285/b5c190e4-e35d-40ea-8fbe-598da03a1185 (Stanley et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of screening travellers during times of international disease outbreak is contentious, especially as the reduction in the risk of disease importation can be very small. Border screening typically consists of travellers being thermally scanned for signs of fever and/or completing a survey declaring any possible symptoms prior to admission to their destination country; while more thorough testing typically exists, these would generally prove more disruptive to deploy. In this paper, we describe a simple Monte Carlo based model that incorporates the epidemiology of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) to investigate the potential decrease in risk of disease importation that might be achieved by requiring travellers to undergo screening upon arrival during the current pandemic. This is a purely theoretical study to investigate the maximum impact that might be attained by deploying a test or testing programme simply at the point of entry, through which we may assess such action in the real world as a method of decreasing the risk of importation. We, therefore, assume ideal conditions such as 100% compliance among travellers and the use of a ‘perfect’ test. In addition to COVID-19, we also apply the presented model to simulated outbreaks of influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Ebola for comparison. Our model only considers screening implemented at airports, being the predominant method of international travel. Primary results showed that in the best-case scenario, screening at the point of entry may detect a maximum of 8.8% of travellers infected with COVID-19, compared to 34.8.%, 9.7% and 3.0% for travellers infected with influenza, SARS and Ebola respectively. While results appear to indicate that screening is more effective at preventing disease ingress when the disease in question has a shorter average incubation period, our results suggest that screening at the point of entry alone does not represent a sufficient method to adequately protect a nation from the importation of COVID-19 cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]