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Abstract Coral bleaching, a consequence of stressed symbiotic relationships between corals and algae, has escalated due to intensified heat stress events driven by climate change. Despite global efforts, current early warning systems lack local precision. Our study, spanning 2015–2017 in the Mesoamerican Reef, revealed prevalent intermediate bleaching, peaking in 2017. By scrutinizing 23 stress exposure and sensitivity metrics, we accurately predicted 75% of bleaching severity variation. Notably, distinct thermal patterns—particularly the climatological seasonal warming rate and various heat stress metrics—emerged as better predictors compared to conventional indices (such as Degree Heating Weeks). Surprisingly, deeper reefs with diverse coral communities showed heightened vulnerability. This study presents a framework for coral reef bleaching vulnerability assessment, leveraging accessible data (including historical and real-time sea surface temperature, habitat variables, and species composition). Its operational potential lies in seamless integration with existing monitoring systems, offering crucial insights for conservation and management.

Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989-2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020-2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species' relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%-54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%-40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.