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Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions-both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)-where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework-which brings together SDM and landscape metrics-can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.

The distribution range of the American comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi has expanded across Europe for several decades, particularly in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. This study aims to assess its expansion along the French Atlantic coast, mainly in the Bay of Biscay and Iroise Sea, since the first record in 2014. Mnemiopsis leidyi is now clearly established along 500 km of coastline, from the coast of Lorient to Arcachon Bay, which is the southernmost colonised area in the eastern Atlantic to date. It will likely colonise the Spanish Gulf coast in the near future through natural dispersal via currents, as has occurred between the Gironde estuary and Arcachon Bay. We quantify that this species now colonises nearly 45% of the French coastline. The invaded area includes the main estuaries of the Seine, Loire, Gironde and Rhône rivers, where M. leidyi populations may constitute reservoirs for colonising other harbours through merchant vessel traffic via ballast water. Finally, the Marennes- Oléron Bay and Arcachon Bay are the two main spat-producing regions for the Pacific oyster Magallana gigas in France. As M. leidyi consumes bivalve larvae, the potential economic and ecological impacts on this shellfish industry are discussed.