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Background: The EVITE Immunity study investigated the effects of shielding Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people during the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes and healthcare costs in Wales, United Kingdom, to help prepare for future pandemics. Shielding was intended to protect those at highest risk of serious harm from COVID-19. We report the cost of implementing shielding in Wales. Methods: The number of people shielding was extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Resources supporting shielding between March and June 2020 were mapped using published reports, web pages, freedom of information requests to Welsh Government and personal communications (e.g. with the office of the Chief Medical Officer for Wales). Results: At the beginning of shielding, 117,415 people were on the shielding list. The total additional cost to support those advised to stay home during the initial 14 weeks of the pandemic was £13,307,654 (£113 per person shielded). This included the new resources required to compile the shielding list, inform CEV people of the shielding intervention and provide medicine and food deliveries. The list was adjusted weekly over the 3-month period (130,000 people identified by June 2020). Therefore the cost per person shielded lies between £102 and £113 per person. Conclusion: This is the first evaluation of the cost of the measures put in place to support those identified to shield in Wales. However, no data on opportunity cost was available. The true costs of shielding including its budget impact and opportunity costs need to be investigated to decide whether shielding is a worthwhile policy for future health emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the trajectory of wellbeing and psychological distress in a UK sample by comparing data taken from the first and second UK lockdowns. Wellbeing (indexed via the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale) and psychological distress (indexed via the K10) were measured in two surveys in large online samples from Wales, UK. The first survey (n = 12,989) took place 11–16 weeks into the first UK lockdown and the second survey (n = 10,428) took place 4–11 weeks into the second UK lockdown. Levels of wellbeing were lower in the second survey compared to the first survey, which were already low compared to pre-pandemic data (2019). Clinically significant levels of psychological distress were found in 40.4% of participants in the second survey, representing a 9.8% increase in prevalence from the first survey. Poorer mental health was found in women, younger adults, and those from deprived areas. The greatest reduction in mental health was found in the youngest age group (16-24 years old). The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to curb its spread continue to negatively impact the wellbeing of the UK population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Gypsies and Travellers have poorer physical and mental health than the general population, but little is known about mental health service use by Gypsy and Traveller children and young people. Finding this group in routine electronic health data is challenging, due to limited recording of ethnicity. We assessed the feasibility of using geographical markers combined with linked routine datasets to estimate the mental health service use of children and young people living on Traveller sites. Methods: Welsh Government supplied a list of Traveller site postcodes included in Caravan Counts between 2012 and 2020. Using spatial filtering with data from the Adolescent Mental Health Data Platform (ADP) at Swansea University's SAIL Databank, we created a cohort of Traveller site residents aged 11–25 years old, 2010–2019. ADP algorithms were used to describe health service use, and to estimate incidence and prevalence of common mental disorders (CMD) and self-harm. Results: Our study found a subgroup of young Gypsies and Travellers (n = 802). We found no significant differences between our cohort and the general population for rates of CMD or self-harm. The rate of non-attendance for psychiatric outpatient follow-up appointments was significantly higher in our cohort. Rates were higher (but not statistically significant) among Gypsies and Travellers for measures suggesting less well-managed care, including emergency department attendance and prescribed CMD medication without follow-up. The small size of the cohort resulted in imprecise estimates with wide confidence intervals, compared with those for the general population. Conclusions: Gypsies and Travellers are under-represented in routine health datasets, even using geographical markers, which find only those resident in authorised traveller sites. Routine data is increasingly relied upon for needs assessment and service planning, which has policy and practice implications for this underserved group. To address health inequalities effort is required to ensure that health datasets accurately capture ethnicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued to provide care to adults in their own homes throughout the COVID‐19 pandemic. The evidence of the impact of COVID‐19 on health outcomes of DCWs is currently mixed. The OSCAR study will quantify the impact of COVID‐19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, explore causes of variation and extrapolate to the rest of the UK DCW population. An embedded qualitative study aimed to explore DCW experiences during the pandemic, including factors that may have varied risk of exposure to COVID‐19 and adverse health and wellbeing outcomes. Registered DCWs working throughout Wales were invited to participate in a semi‐structured telephone interview. 24 DCWs were interviewed between February and July 2021. Themes were identified through inductive analysis using thematic coding. Several themes emerged relating to risk of exposure to COVID‐19. First, general changes to the role of the DCW during the pandemic were identified. Second, practical challenges for DCWs in the workplace were reported, including staff shortages, clients and families not following safety procedures, initial shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE), DCW criticism of standard use PPE, client difficulty with PPE and management of rapid antigen testing. Third, lack of government/employer preparation for a pandemic was described, including the reorganisation of staff clients and services, inadequate or confusing information for many DCWs, COVID‐19 training and the need for improved practical instruction and limited official standard risk assessments for DCWs. Pressure to attend work and perceptions of COVID‐19 risk and vaccination was also reported. In summary, this paper describes the risk factors associated with working during the pandemic. We have mapped recommendations for each problem using these qualitative findings including tailored training and better support for isolated team members and identified the required changes at several socio‐ecological levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates place the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (autism) at around 1% in the population. New services for adult diagnosis have been set up in Wales, UK, at a time of rising awareness of the spectrum of autism experiences; however, no studies have examined adult autism prevalence in Wales. In this study, we used an anonymised e-cohort comprised of healthcare record data to produce all-age estimates of prevalence and incidence of recorded autism for the years 2001–2016. We found the overall prevalence rate of autism in healthcare records was 0.51%. The number of new)recorded cases of autism increased from 0.188 per 1000 person-years in 2001 to 0.644 per 1000 person-years in 2016. The estimate of 0.51% prevalence in the population is lower than suggested by population survey and cohort studies study methodologies, but comparable to other administrative record study estimates. Rates of new incident diagnoses of autism saw a >150% increase in the years 2008–2016, with a trend towards more diagnoses in those aged over 35years and an eightfold increase in diagnoses in women from 2000 to 2016. This study suggests that while the number of people being diagnosed with autism is increasing, many are still unrecognised by healthcare services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To explore differences in the use of lipid lowering therapy and/or achievement of lipid guideline targets in patients with and without prior depression and influence of sex in very high-risk coronary patients. Methods & findings: A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using individual-level linked electronic health record data in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (2012–2017) in Wales. The cohort comprised of 13,781 patients (27.4% female), with 26.1% having prior depression. Lipid levels were recorded in 10,050 patients of whom 25% had depression. History of depression was independently associated with not having lipids checked (OR 0.79 95%CI 0.72–0.87 p<0.001). Patients with prior depression were less likely to achieve targets for low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C <1.8mmol/l), non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C <2.6mmol/l) and triglycerides (<2.3mmol/l) than patients without depression (OR 0.86 95%CI 0.78–0.96 p = 0.007, OR 0.80 95%CI 0.69–0.92 p = 0.003 & OR 0.69 95CI% 0.61–0.79 p<0.001 respectively). Females were less likely to achieve targets for LDL-C and non-HDL-C than males (OR 0.55 95%CI 0.50–0.61 p<0.001 & OR 0.63 95%CI 0.55–0.73 p<0.001). There was an additive effect of depression and sex; females with depression were not only least likely to be tested (OR 0.74 95%CI 0.65–0.84 p<0.001) but also (where levels were known) less likely to achieve LDL-C (OR 0.47 95%CI 0.41–0.55 p<0.001) and non-HDL-C targets (OR 0.50 95%CI 0.41–0.60 p<0.001). It was not possible to look at the influence of medication adherence on achievement of lipid targets due to limitations of the use of anonymised routinely-held clinical care data. Conclusion: Patients with prior depression were less likely to have their lipids monitored and achieve guideline targets within 1-year. Females with depression are the least likely to be tested and achieve lipid targets, suggesting not only a greater risk of future events, but also an opportunity to improve care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Mental disorder (MD) and substance use (SUD) are associated with poorer than average health and greater mortality. We analysed routine primary care (WLGP) and inpatient admission (PEDW) data to estimate incidence of co-occurring (CC) MD and SUD, and to estimate all-cause mortality and survival with CC, in children and young people in Wales, UK. Methods: A retrospective population-based electronic cohort study using data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Participants were 958,603 individuals aged 11– 25 between 2008 and 2017. We estimated first ever incidence of CC, plotted Kaplan–Meier survival curves and carried out Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for risk of death by condition group (CC; MD or SUD only; NC). Results: Higher incidence of CC in WLGP and PEDW was associated with male sex, older age and greater deprivation. Male to female IRRs (95% CI) were 1.18 (1.12– 1.24) in WLGP and 1.17 (1.10– 1.24) in PEDW, oldest to youngest IRRs were 24.80 (21.20– 29.40) in WLGP and 4.50 (4.08– 4.98) in PEDW and most to least deprived IRRs were 3.28 (3.00– 3.58) in WLGP and 2.59 (2.36– 2.84) in PEDW. Incidence in WLGP significantly decreased between 2008 and 2017 (IRR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78– 0.99); the greatest reduction occurred in the most deprived quintile (IRR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54– 0.82). Incidence of hospital admissions remained stable (IRR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.84– 1.08). Risk of death was significantly higher for CC compared with NC (HR = 8.7, 95% CI 7.5– 10.0). Conclusion: Male sex, older age and greater deprivation were associated with higher CC incidence, although the gap between WIMD quintiles has decreased. CC was associated with greater risk of death. Mental health and substance misuse services should be provided in ways that remove barriers, and are acceptable and accessible to all, particularly those at greatest risk, or who are less likely to engage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was a highly publicised cluster of at least ten suicides in South Wales, United Kingdom, in 2007–2008. We carried out a qualitative descriptive study using cross-case thematic analysis to investigate the experiences and narratives of eight individuals who lived in the area where the cluster occurred and who survived an episode of near-fatal self-harm at the time of the cluster. Interviews were conducted from 01.01.2015 to 31.12.2015. All interviewees denied that the other deaths in the area had affected their own suicidal behaviour. However, in other sections of the interviews they spoke about the cluster contributing to difficulties they were experiencing at the time, including damage to social relationships, feelings of loss and being out of control. When asked about support, the interviewees emphasized the importance of counselling, which they would have found helpful but in most cases did not receive, even in the case of close contacts of individuals who had died. The findings suggest that effective prevention messaging must be subtle, since those affected may not be explicitly aware of or acknowledge the imitative aspects of their behaviour. This could be related to stigma attached to suicidal behaviour in a cluster context. Lessons for prevention include changing the message from asking if people 'have been affected by' the suicide deaths to emphasising the preventability of suicide, and directly reaching out to individuals rather than relying on people to come forward. • Participants' state the cluster did not influence their behaviour. • Evidence of cluster-related stressors, normalisation and social integration effects. • Implications for prevention; people may be less likely to seek help until crisis. • Proactive interventions and carefully worded messaging/signposting to help needed. • Importance of support in hospital following self-harm was also emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008, the UK entered a period of economic recession followed by sustained austerity measures. We investigate changes in inequalities by area deprivation and urbanicity in incidence of severe mental illness (SMI, including schizophrenia-related disorders and bipolar disorder) between 2000 and 2017. We analysed 4.4 million individuals from primary and secondary care routinely collected datasets (2000–2017) in Wales and estimated the incidence of SMI by deprivation and urbanicity measured by the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) and urban/rural indicator respectively. Using linear modelling and joinpoint regression approaches, we examined time trends of the incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) of SMI by the WIMD and urban/rural indicator adjusted for available confounders. We observed a turning point of time trends of incidence of SMI at 2008/2009 where slope changes of time trends were significantly increasing. IRRs by deprivation/urbanicity remained stable or significantly decreased over the study period except for those with bipolar disorder sourced from secondary care settings, with increasing trend of IRRs (increase in IRR by deprivation after 2010: 1.6 % per year, 95 % CI: 1.0 %–2.2 %; increase in IRR by urbanicity 1.0 % per year, 95 % CI: 0.6 %–1.3 %). There was an association between recession/austerity and an increase in the incidence of SMI over time. There were variations in the effects of deprivation/urbanicity on incidence of SMI associated with short- and long-term socioeconomic change. These findings may support targeted interventions and social protection systems to reduce incidence of SMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parental difficulties, including mental ill health, substance misuse, domestic violence and learning disability have been associated with children entering out-of-home care. There is also evidence that these issues may co-occur within families. Understanding how the co-occurrence of these difficulties is associated with care entry is complex because they may co-occur in the same or different household members and have different impacts on the likelihood of care entry when they occur in mothers, fathers or in single parent households. Administrative data from local authority children's services in Wales were linked with demographic data to identify households in which children lived prior to entering care. Linkage to birth data identified biological mothers. Linkage with primary care, emergency department, hospital admissions and substance misuse services data enabled indicators of substance misuse, mental health, assaults in the home, learning disability and neurodivergence in the adults in those households to be identified. A series of multilevel binary logistic regression models were used to explore the odds of a household having one or more children entering care if risk factors were present. These considered the effects of individual risks, and cumulative risk both in individual adults in the household, and across the whole household. The effects of the number of adults, having adults with no risks and the differential impacts of risks in biological mothers, other women or men were also explored. Additional models explored these factors in single adult households. Cumulative risks increased the likelihood of care entry, however this effect disappeared when individual risks were controlled for. The presence of an individual with no risks in the household acted as a protective factor. Overall, the impact of the risks on the odds of care entry was substantially greater if the risks were present in the biological mother than if they occurred in other adults (men or women) in the household. In single adult households risk factors had a much greater impact when they occurred in households headed by women as opposed to men. Substantial differences in the effects of risk factors in female and male adults are apparent and further research is needed to understand why this is occurring to ensure that parents are treated equally in terms of support and statutory intervention regardless of their sex. 1 1 Throughout this paper we refer to the "sex" of the parents /adults in households, as opposed to their "gender." This is because in the analysis we carried out the sex of these individuals was determined by their GP records. We have chosen to use the term "sex," rather than "gender," as we believe this data is more likely to reflect their biological sex, rather the gender that the individuals identify as. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status., Methods: Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research., Findings: Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority., Interpretation: There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention., Funding: Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests DK reports grants and personal fees from the Wellcome Trust, the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention, and the UK Department of Health and Social Care. DK is a steering group member of the Migration Health and Development Research Initiative and the UK National Suicide Prevention Alliance; she receives no fees for this work. NK reports grants and personal fees from the UK Department of Health and Social Care, the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and the Healthcare Quality and Improvement Partnership, outside the submitted work; and work with NHS England on national quality improvement initiatives for suicide and self-harm. He sits on the Department of Health and Social Care's (England) National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group. He has chaired and been the Topic Advisor for NICE guideline committees for self-harm and depression. LR is an ONS employee. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Healthcare and support workers play a pivotal role in delivering quality services and support to people seeking sanctuary who have experienced poor physical and mental health linked to previous trauma, relocation and loss of freedoms. However, they often encounter various challenges in their daily work, ranging from communication barriers to resource constraints. This qualitative study seeks to delve into the perspectives of healthcare and support workers' experience of workarounds, employed to overcome barriers to providing care., Aim: This study aims to describe healthcare providers', practitioners' and health and third sector support workers' views on barriers and workarounds to providing care for people seeking sanctuary, to inform policy and practice., Design: A qualitative study was carried out using semi-structured telephone interviews., Setting: This study focused on primary, secondary, community and specialist National Health Service (NHS) support services for people seeking sanctuary in Wales, United Kingdom (2018)., Method: We interviewed 32 healthcare providers, practitioners and support workers employed by primary care and third sector organisations. Our approach involved obtaining verbal informed consent before digitally recording and transcribing all interviews. To analyse the data, we used the Four Levels of Change for Improving Quality model as a guiding framework for interpretation., Results: Our study findings reveal that certain respondents expressed challenges in meeting the needs of people seeking sanctuary; notably, their experience of delivering care differed by care settings. Specifically, those involved in providing specialist NHS care believed that there was room for improvement. Mainstream primary, secondary and community health practitioners faced limitations due to resource constraints and lacked tailored information to address the unique circumstances and needs of sanctuary seekers. To address these gaps, workarounds emerged at both individual and local levels (team/departmental and organisational level). These included establishing informal communication channels between providers, fostering cross service collaboration to fill gaps and adapting existing services to enhance accessibility., Conclusion: Understanding healthcare providers', practitioners' and support workers' perspectives offers invaluable insights into ways to enhance healthcare delivery to sanctuary seekers. Acknowledging challenges and harnessing innovative workarounds can foster a more effective and compassionate service for this vulnerable population., Patient or Public Contribution: The HEAR study actively involved public contributors in the design, delivery and dissemination of the research. Two public contributors (S. M. and G. R.) who had personal experience of seeking asylum served as study co-applicants. They played pivotal roles in shaping the research by participating in its development and securing funding. Alongside other co-applicants, S. M. and G. R. formed the Research Management Group, overseeing study delivery. Their contributions extended to strategic decision-making and specific feedback at critical junctures, including participant recruitment, data collection, analysis and reporting. Additionally, S. M. and G. R. were instrumental in recruiting and supporting a team of peer researchers, enhancing respondent participation among people seeking sanctuary. To facilitate effective public involvement, we provided named contacts for support (A. K. and R. F.), research training, honoraria, reimbursement of expenses and accessible information in line with best practice., (© 2024 The Authors. Health Expectations published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Aims : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Method : Using records from the hospital serving the catchment area of the suicide cluster, enhanced by national routinely collected linked data, we created the following two groups: individuals who self-harmed (a) during the suicide cluster and (b) 1 year before. We compared individuals' characteristics and performed logistic regression to compute odds ratios of 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Results : Individuals who self-harmed during the cluster were less likely to be hospitalized or have a mental health history than those who self-harmed prior to the cluster. No significant group differences were found for 10-year self-harm outcomes, but all-cause mortality was higher for males. Limitations : Sample size was small, and data were lacking on psychological and social proximity to individuals who died during the suicide cluster. Conclusion : Our findings highlight the importance of long-term healthcare follow-up of those who self-harm during a suicide cluster, particularly males.

Objectives: To determine whether clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) children or children living with a CEV person in Wales were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression in primary or secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with children in the general population and to compare patterns of anxiety and depression during the pandemic (23 March 2020-31 January 2021, referred to as 2020/2021) and before the pandemic (23 March 2019-31 January 2020, referred to as 2019/2020), between CEV children and the general population., Design: Population-based cross-sectional cohort study using anonymised, linked, routinely collected health and administrative data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. CEV individuals were identified using the COVID-19 shielded patient list., Setting: Primary and secondary healthcare settings covering 80% of the population of Wales., Participants: Children aged 2-17 in Wales: CEV (3769); living with a CEV person (20 033); or neither (415 009)., Primary Outcome Measure: First record of anxiety or depression in primary or secondary healthcare in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021, identified using Read and International Classification of Diseases V.10 codes., Results: A Cox regression model adjusted for demographics and history of anxiety or depression revealed that only CEV children were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression during the pandemic compared with the general population (HR=2.27, 95% CI=1.94 to 2.66, p<0.001). Compared with the general population, the risk among CEV children was higher in 2020/2021 (risk ratio 3.04) compared with 2019/2020 (risk ratio 1.90). In 2020/2021, the period prevalence of anxiety or depression increased slightly among CEV children, but declined among the general population., Conclusions: Differences in the period prevalence of recorded anxiety or depression in healthcare between CEV children and the general population were largely driven by a reduction in presentations to healthcare services by children in the general population during the pandemic., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AJ is a member of the Welsh Government COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group and is also cochair of the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, which is a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advising the UK government. None of the other authors have any competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic., Design: A population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting trusted research environment., Setting: Registered DCW population in Wales., Participants: Records for all linked DCWs from 1 March 2020 to 30 November 2021., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Our primary outcome was confirmed COVID-19 infection; secondary outcomes included contacts for suspected COVID-19, mental health including self-harm, fit notes, respiratory infections not necessarily recorded as COVID-19, deaths involving COVID-19 and all-cause mortality., Results: Confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection rates increased over the study period to 24% by 30 November 2021. Confirmed COVID-19 varied by sex (males: 19% vs females: 24%) and age (>55 years: 19% vs <35 years: 26%) and were higher for care workers employed by local authority social services departments compared with the private sector (27% and 23%, respectively). 34% of DCWs required support for a mental health condition, with mental health-related prescribing increasing in frequency when compared with the prepandemic period. Events for self-harm increased from 0.2% to 0.4% over the study period as did the issuing of fit notes. There was no evidence to suggest a miscoding of COVID-19 infection with non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. COVID-19-related and all-cause mortality were no greater than for the general population aged 15-64 years in Wales (0.1% and 0.034%, respectively). A comparable DCW workforce in Scotland and England would result in a comparable rate of COVID-19 infection, while the younger workforce in Northern Ireland may result in a greater infection rate., Conclusions: While initial concerns about excess mortality are alleviated, the substantial pre-existing and increased mental health burden for DCWs will require investment to provide long-term support to the sector's workforce., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Although the evidence base on bullying victimization and self-harm in young people has been growing, most studies were cross-sectional, relied on self-reported non-validated measures of self-harm, and did not separate effects of in-person and cyberbullying. This study aimed to assess associations of self-harm following in-person bullying at school and cyberbullying victimization controlling for covariates., Methods: School survey data from 11 to 16 years pupils collected in 2017 from 39 Welsh secondary schools were linked to routinely collected data. Inverse probability weighting was performed to circumvent selection bias. Survival analyses for recurrent events were conducted to evaluate relative risks (adjusted hazard ratios [AHR]) of self-harm among bullying groups within 2 years following survey completion., Results: A total of 35.0% (weighted N = 6813) of pupils reported being bullied, with 18.1%, 6.4% and 10.5% being victims of in-person bullying at school only, cyberbullying only and both in-person bullying at school and cyberbullying respectively. Adjusting for covariates, effect sizes for self-harm were significant after being in-person bullied at school only (AHR = 2.2 [1.1-4.3]) and being both in-person bullied at school and cyberbullied (AHR = 2.2 [1.0-4.7]) but not being cyberbullied only (AHR = 1.2 [0.4-3.3]). Feeling lonely during recent summer holidays was also a robust predictor (AHR = 2.2 [1.2-4.0])., Conclusions: We reaffirm the role of in-person bullying victimization on self-harm. Pupils were twice as likely to self-harm following in-person bullying as their nonvictimised peers. Interventions for young people that minimize the potential impacts of bullying on self-harm should also include strategies to prevent loneliness., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Adolescence published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Foundation for Professionals in Services to Adolescents.)

Introduction: Shielding aimed to protect those predicted to be at highest risk from COVID-19 and was uniquely implemented in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinically extremely vulnerable people identified through algorithms and screening of routine National Health Service (NHS) data were individually and strongly advised to stay at home and strictly self-isolate even from others in their household. This study will generate a logic model of the intervention and evaluate the effects and costs of shielding to inform policy development and delivery during future pandemics., Methods and Analysis: This is a quasiexperimental study undertaken in Wales where records for people who were identified for shielding were already anonymously linked into integrated data systems for public health decision-making. We will: interview policy-makers to understand rationale for shielding advice to inform analysis and interpretation of results; use anonymised individual-level data to select people identified for shielding advice in March 2020 and a matched cohort, from routine electronic health data sources, to compare outcomes; survey a stratified random sample of each group about activities and quality of life at 12 months; use routine and newly collected blood data to assess immunity; interview people who were identified for shielding and their carers and NHS staff who delivered healthcare during shielding, to explore compliance and experiences; collect healthcare resource use data to calculate implementation costs and cost-consequences. Our team includes people who were shielding, who used their experience to help design and deliver this study., Ethics and Dissemination: The study has received approval from the Newcastle North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (IRAS 295050). We will disseminate results directly to UK government policy-makers, publish in peer-reviewed journals, present at scientific and policy conferences and share accessible summaries of results online and through public and patient networks., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RL, SJ, AJ and AE are members of the Welsh Government COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group. AJ is also co-chair of the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, which is a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advising the UK government. SJ is also a member of the Welsh Government Testing Technical Advisory Group and Cardiff University COVID Strategic Advisory Board., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Lay Abstract: Autism spectrum disorders (autism) are thought to be relatively common, with analyses estimating 1% in the population could meet diagnostic criteria. New services for adult diagnosis have been set up in Wales, UK; however, no studies have examined for the proportion of adults with autism in Wales. In this study, we take anonymised healthcare record data from more than 3.6 million people to produce a national estimate of recorded autism diagnoses. We found the overall prevalence rate of autism in healthcare records was 0.51%. The number of new-recorded cases of autism increased from 0.188 per 1000 person-years in 2001 to 0.644 per 1000 person-years in 2016. The estimate of 0.51% prevalence in the population is lower than suggested by population survey and cohort studies, but comparable to other administrative records. From 2001 to 2016, the number of autism services for adults has increased, and autism is more widely known in society, while concurrently in healthcare records, there was a >150% increase autism diagnoses in the years 2008-2016. An increasing number of diagnoses were among women and those aged over 35 years. This study suggests that while the number of people being diagnosed with autism is increasing, many are still unrecognised by healthcare services.

Introduction: Under section 31 of the Children Act 1989, public law care proceedings can be issued if there is concern a child is subject to, or at risk of significant harm, which can lead to removal of a child from parents. Appropriate and effective health and social support are required to potentially prevent some of the need for these proceedings. More comprehensive evidence of the health needs and vulnerabilities of parents will enable enhanced response from family courts and integrated other services., Objective: To examine health vulnerabilities of parents involved in care proceedings in the two-year period prior to involvement., Methods: Family court data provided by Cafcass Cymru were linked to population-based health records held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Linked data were available for 8,821 parents of children involved in care proceedings between 2011 and 2019. Findings were benchmarked with reference to a comparison group of parents matched on sex, age, and deprivation (n = 32,006), not subject to care proceedings. Demographic characteristics, overall health service use, and health profiles of parents were examined. Descriptive and statistical tests of independence were used., Results: Nearly half of cohort parents (47.6%) resided in the most deprived quintile. They had higher levels of healthcare use compared to the comparison group across multiple healthcare settings, with the most pronounced differences for emergency department attendances (59.3% vs 37.0%). Health conditions with the largest variation between groups were related to mental health (43.6% vs 16.0%), substance use (19.4% vs 1.6%) and injuries (41.5% vs 23.6%)., Conclusion: This study highlights the heightened socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities of parents who experience care proceedings concerning a child. Better understanding of the needs and vulnerabilities of this population may provide opportunities to improve a range of support and preventative interventions that respond to crises in the community., Competing Interests: Statement on conflicts of interest: None to declare.

Background: Poor attendance at school, whether due to absenteeism or exclusion, leads to multiple social, educational, and lifelong socioeconomic disadvantages. We aimed to measure the association between a broad range of diagnosed neurodevelopmental and mental disorders and recorded self-harm by the age of 24 years and school attendance and exclusion., Methods: In this nationwide, retrospective, electronic cohort study, we drew a cohort from the Welsh Demographic Service Dataset, which included individuals aged 7-16 years (16 years being the school leaving age in the UK) enrolled in state-funded schools in Wales in the academic years 2012/13-2015/16 (between Sept 1, 2012, and Aug 31, 2016). Using the Adolescent Mental Health Data Platform, we linked attendance and exclusion data to national demographic and primary and secondary health-care datasets. We identified all pupils with a recorded diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD and autism spectrum disorder [ASD]), learning difficulties, conduct disorder, depression, anxiety, eating disorders, alcohol or drugs misuse, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, other psychotic disorders, or recorded self-harm (our explanatory variables) before the age of 24 years. Outcomes were school absence and exclusion. Generalised estimating equations with exchangeable correlation structures using binomial distribution with the logit link function were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) for absenteeism and exclusion, adjusting for sex, age, and deprivation., Findings: School attendance, school exclusion, and health-care data were available for 414 637 pupils (201 789 [48·7%] girls and 212 848 [51·3%] boys; mean age 10·5 years [SD 3·8] on Sept 1, 2012; ethnicity data were not available). Individuals with a record of a neurodevelopmental disorder, mental disorder, or self-harm were more likely to be absent or excluded in any school year than were those without a record. Unadjusted ORs for absences ranged from 2·1 (95% CI 2·0-2·2) for those with neurodevelopmental disorders to 6·6 (4·9-8·3) for those with bipolar disorder. Adjusted ORs (aORs) for absences ranged from 2·0 (1·9-2·1) for those with neurodevelopmental disorders to 5·5 (4·2-7·2) for those with bipolar disorder. Unadjusted ORs for exclusion ranged from 1·7 (1·3-2·2) for those with eating disorders to 22·7 (20·8-24·7) for those with a record of drugs misuse. aORs for exclusion ranged from 1·8 (1·5-2·0) for those with learning difficulties to 11·0 (10·0-12·1) for those with a record of drugs misuse., Interpretation: Children and young people up to the age of 24 years with a record of a neurodevelopmental or mental disorder or self-harm before the age of 24 years were more likely to miss school than those without a record. Exclusion or persistent absence are potential indicators of current or future poor mental health that are routinely collected and could be used to target assessment and early intervention. Integrated school-based and health-care strategies to support young peoples' engagement with school life are required., Funding: The Medical Research Council, MQ Mental Health Research, and the Economic and Social Research Council., Translation: For the Welsh translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AJ is a trustee of the Samaritans. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)