Search

The industrial development alongside inadequate planning in the energy sector put demand-side pressure on Pakistan's energy demand. Similarly, the excessive dependency on fossil fuels has an ecological footprint. Moreover, the abuse of energy tariff subsidies and deficits had a detrimental effect on department earnings, limiting the sector's emergence and intensifying its crisis. This research examines the electric demand and supply imbalance in the context of the China–Pakistan economic corridor investments using the system dynamics modeling approach, highlights the renewable resources, and discusses the hurdles in the way of green conversion. Moreover, the study forecasts the production capacity, electric demand, and supply up to 2040. The results show that China–Pakistan economic corridor investments will uplift the production capacity up to 12.9%, whereas the average production will reach 15.8%, variables that were 5% and 4.8% before China–Pakistan economic corridor. As a result, the energy sector will be able to meet the energy demand after 2021. However, the current investment in the renewable industry will not help in achieving policy targets. The study provides targeted implications to overcome potential barriers to the green path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric power shortfalls driven by inadequate generation, electrification, and lack of clarity on the planning side have worsened Pakistan's power crises that deformed economic growth. This study focuses on the estimation of the electricity supply and demand in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) perspective and on the main reasons that motivate a transition to green resources. This paper estimated the demand-supply gap (1990–2015) and forecasted it (2016–2035), including CPEC projects using the System Dynamics model. The results show that the power demand will be met by 2021, fact highlighted also by a battery of robustness tests. We find that the CPEC efforts will increase energy growth from 4.5% (1990–2015) to 14.6% (2016–2035). The capacity growth will increase from 4.9% to 12.3% during 2016–2035. Moreover, the current renewable energy production and investment (Wind & Solar Power) will not help achieve policy targets. A total investment of $4806.69 million is required to meet policy targets, while a value of $57,683 million is needed for a complete conversion to green energy. The study highlights the challenges on the green energy path and discusses policies needed to overcome these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]