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The spatiotemporal distribution of ecosystem service values (ESVs) and ecological risk are critical indicators to represent the regional ecological protection level and potential of sustainable development, which largely depend on land-use patterns. Aiming to contribute to global climate mitigation, China has proposed dual-carbon goals that would remarkably influence the land-use/cover change (LUCC) distribution. Based on the Landsat land cover data of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and multisource satellite products, several driving factors are integrated into the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future LUCC patterns for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) under rapid urbanization, cropland protection and carbon neutral (CN) scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Spatial–temporal ecosystem service and ESVs are allocated using INVEST and the equivalent factor method and thus ecological risks are evaluated using the entropy method. Results indicate that forest growth is the largest under the CN scenario, especially in the northwestern and northeastern GBA, exceeding 25,800 km2 in 2050, which results in both the highest habitat quality and carbon storage. The largest ESVs, reaching higher than 5210 yuan/pixel, are found in the CN scenario, particularly expanding toward the suburban area, leading to the lowest ecological risks. From 2020 to 2050, habitat quality, carbon storage and ESVs improve, while ecological risks decline in the CN scenario. This research provides implications for economic and ecological balanced development and gives references to the carbon-neutral pathway for the GBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Proposal of a method to construct typical generic block models using local datasets. • Urban form influences strategy of solar technology in low-carbon scenario. • Solar cooling contributes to carbon reduction in subtropical areas. • Technology and morphology design can overcome the high-density constraints. The use of solar energy in an urban context is essential for low-carbon urban development and global climate change mitigation. In this paper, the application of multiple solar energy techniques, namely, photovoltaic (PV), photothermal (PT), and photothermal-driven cooling (PC) techniques, in tropical Macau was investigated. Based on the typological method, sixty generic block typologies were formulated. A parametric workflow was constructed to facilitate block modelling and simulate energy consumption and solar radiation. The optimal technique strategy for each typology was identified under a low-carbon scenario. The energy and environmental performance levels of the blocks were evaluated by calculating and comparing the solar potentials, load matching conditions, primary energy consumption levels, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results indicated that the PT technique should be preferred for blocks with high floor area ratio (FAR) values, while the PV technique should be prioritized for blocks with low FAR values under the low-carbon scenario. Moreover, the PC technique is necessary in subtropical areas to reduce carbon emissions. In addition, it is suggested that solar energy should be adopted in blocks with high site coverage ratio (SC) and low surface area-to-volume ratio (SAV) values, as well as blocks with low FAR values. Regarding blocks constrained by high-density urban development, appropriate decisions on technology and morphological design could help to overcome constraints and realize low-carbon community targets. This study could provide suggestions for urban planners and building designers in the application of the urban solar potential at the early stages of urban design or urban regeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]