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Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households' settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households. This study finds that flood insurance policy design affects economic development in floodplains and, consequently, flood risk in Europe. Therefore, the authors advocate for flood insurance design to be integrated in climate change adaptation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, soil moisture retrievals of the combined active–passive ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture product are assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model over Europe using a one-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter and an 18-yr study period. The performance of the data assimilation (DA) system is evaluated by comparing it with a model-only experiment (at in situ sites) and by assessing statistics of innovations and increments as DA diagnostics (over the entire domain). For both assessments, we explore the impact of three design choices, resulting in the following insights. 1) The magnitude of the assumed observation errors strongly affects the skill improvements evaluated against in situ stations and internal diagnostics. 2) Choosing between climatological or monthly cumulative distribution function matching as the observation bias correction method only has a marginal effect on the in situ skill of the DA system. However, the internal diagnostics suggest a more robust system parameterization if the observations are rescaled monthly. 3) The choice of atmospheric reanalysis dataset to force the land surface model affects the model-only skill and the DA skill improvements. The model-only skill is higher with input from the MERRA-2 than with input from the ERA5 reanalysis, resulting in larger DA skill improvements for the latter. Additionally, we show that the added value of the DA strongly depends on the quality of the satellite retrievals and land cover, with the most substantial soil moisture skill improvements occurring over croplands and skill degradation occurring over densely forested areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to improve understanding of how EU citizens' left-right political positions and ideological polarization on climate change affect their views on both agriculture and diet in the context of climate change policy. It uses the methods of survey research and quantitative analyses of the data (principal components and regression analysis). The work combines the Farm- and Fork-related branches of Eurobarometer 93.2 (2020) and focuses on citizens' responses to a more climate-friendly agriculture and their ideas about 'eating a healthy and sustainable diet'. The analysis revealed different degrees of citizen support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and climate-friendly dietary options (including meat reduction). Citizens' left-right political position correlated negatively with support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options, but only in the Northwestern European countries. In these countries, the expected positive correlations between level of education and pro-environmental variables were found, but these correlations were not observed among the right-leaning participants. However, the positive correlation between support for a more climate-friendly agriculture and support for climate-friendly dietary options was less strongly affected by left-right political positions. Hence, public opinion is moving in the direction of EU climate policy over time; however, citizens did not fully acknowledge the priority of meat reduction in this context. Political and ideological polarization has seriously interfered with attempts to promote a more climate-friendly agriculture (Farm) and changes in dietary thinking including meat reduction (Fork). To promote these changes, more work must be done on the role of cultural identities in relation to climate issues. Yet, EU citizens showed an increasing support for more climate-friendly agriculture, which correlated positively with support for climate-friendly dietary options across the left-right political spectrum. Science-based information regarding climate risks and/or loyalty to local farmers may play a role in shaping these opinions. The priority of meat reduction needs considerably more attention to achieve the EU's climate objectives. For citizens, both nutritional (health) and environmental (i.e. climate change, as well as species decline and farm animal welfare) reasons can be strong motivating factors to consider meat reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although several studies have concluded that excess winter deaths are not a suitable indicator of cold-related health impacts, the investigation of temporal fluctuation in mortality across many European countries could provide an insight into the seasonal variation of deaths at different climatic conditions. We investigated the evolution over time of the Excess Winter Deaths Index (EWDI) and the Summer-to-Winter Deaths ratio (S/W) for the period 1960–2018 and the temporal fluctuation of the Heating and Cooling Degree Days indices for the period 1979–2020. We found a clear spatial pattern of EWDI with statistically significant decreasing trends in Mediterranean countries and increasing trends in Nordic countries. On the other hand, S/W index shown increasing trends in Mediterranean region and decreasing trends in Nordic countries. Statistical analysis of Heating Degree Days index showed significant decreasing trends for all European countries, probably due to the appearance of milder winters. Also, the values of Cooling Degree Days index exhibited a statistically significant upward trend for Mediterranean countries, mainly due to increased frequency of warmer summers, as a result of climate change. This study shows that the differences in seasonal variation of mortality between European countries are likely to disappear, as the climate gets warmer. A possible explanation for our findings is that climate change already brings milder winters and hotter summers to the Mediterranean countries, while in the Nordic countries global warming causes less severe winters and more pleasant summers as shown from Heating and Cooling Degree Days analysis. In addition to providing a basis to investigate potential effects of global warming on human mortality, the findings of this study are likely to be crucial for climate change policy and developing relevant adaptation strategies in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic threat of climate change: A multilevel analysis of the relationship between working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector, economic insecurity and climate policy scepticism among the lower educated in Europe This research set out to determine to what extent the relationship between working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector and climate policy scepticism can be explained by economic insecurity, while also examining the contextual influence of national commitment to climate change mitigation. Focusing on the lower educated of 21 European countries (N = 10.060) and conducting two multilevel analyses, this research found that working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector leads to more climate policy scepticism. This substantiates the idea that values of climate change scepticism are more present in the social environment of more greenhouse gas intensive sectors. This relationship is, however, not substantially explained by economic insecurity. Finally, this research found that working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector does not lead to more economic insecurity and that this relationship is only partially and minimally influenced by an extensive national climate policy agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weighting of impacts is frequently applied to enable the prioritization of life cycle assessment (LCA) results for the support of decision making. Most Distance-to-Target (DtT) weighting approaches consider policy targets, whereas potential is seen in the weighting of environmental impacts on a more scientific basis. This study aims at the comparison of science-based (SB) to policy-based (PoB) DtT weighting approaches as well as the application in a comparative case study for the domestic footprint of the European Union. The developed approaches integrated SB targets from ten environmental impact categories into the DtT weighting method of the Ecological Scarcity Method in an effort to derive SB eco-factors. In addition to SB eco-factors based on existing weighting factors for Europe from the literature, weighting factors for the European Union were developed. The application of the eco-factors in the case study showed that the SB approach led to three times higher absolute weighting results in contrast to PoB results. SB weighting was dominated by the impact category climate change with the strictest weighting factors in all approaches considered and a share of 87–92%. For the remaining impact categories, common PoB weighting factors were generally stricter. PoB results showed a more balanced distribution, with shares of 64% for climate change, 10% for photochemical ozone formation, 7% for acidification, and 7% for terrestrial eutrophication. Science-based targets can not replace conventional PoB weighting approaches but should be integrated into the weighting step to provide a more comprehensive view of the environmental performance of product systems. SB weighting results are an additional source of information on environmental sustainability regarding environmental carrying capacity that can broaden the basis for decision making. • Comparison of targets based on science and policy via distance-to-target weighting. • Development of weighting sets for comparative application to EU domestic footprint. • Science-based results are dominated by the impact category climate change. • Lower results in policy-based weighting due to less strict climate policy targets. • Analysis of EU policy regarding effectiveness to stay within carrying capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spatial and socioeconomic predictors for climate change (CC) attitudes were examined. • Certain dimensions of CC attitudes are associated with regional population change. • All dimensions of CC attitudes show a strong educational gradient. • CC attitudes and efficacy are socioeconomically stratified and spatially determined. Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one's political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive review of heat-health action plans (HHAPs) and heat-health warning systems (HHWSs). • HHAPs are most often linked with national climate change policies. • A greater heterogeneity was marked for medium and longer-term measures across HHAPs. • The level of implementation of different core elements of HHAPs varies significantly. • Long-term urban planning interventions are least implemented across HHAPs. In recent decades, rising trend in the number of heat waves (HWs) has exacerbated the risk of heat-related mortality and morbidity. The frequent deadly HWs precipitated a multitude of national and sub-national heat-health prevention and research efforts. In 2008, the WHO Regional Office for Europe developed and published guidance on heat-health action plans (HHAPs). This provided a blueprint for countries to design heat-related prevention efforts. Since then, a large corpus of new evidences and implementation experiences has emerged around adaptive measures, alert systems and urban planning interventions. The present study conducts a systematic review to critically assess the advent and development of HHAPs with a special focus on its integration with urban planning policies. It reviews the concept of threshold, indicators for heat event determination and measurement of HWs to understand trigger setting mechanisms. The results show that implementation of core elements of HHAPs varies significantly in the areas of long-term urban planning, real-time surveillance, monitoring and evaluation. Moreover, low levels of inclusion of HHAPs with national policies hinder the overall potential of adaptation measures. The growing impacts of HWs emphasize the urgent need to address spatial heat vulnerability and build urban heat resilience into implementable action plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]