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Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional variability in the spatial distribution of resident population and across-country density divides have consolidated heterogeneous demographic patterns at the base of modern urban systems in Europe. Although economic, historical, institutional, and cultural factors have demonstrated to affect the spatial distribution of resident population, density-dependence and path-dependence are mechanisms persistently shaping demographic dynamics at both local and regional scale. Analysis of density-dependent patterns of population growth (and decline) over sufficiently long time intervals allows a refined comprehension of socioeconomic processes underlying demographic divides. Despite a long settlement history, empirical investigation of the role of density-dependence in the long-term evolution of human populations along urban–rural gradients is relatively scarce especially in Mediterranean countries. The present study performs a comparative analysis of population distribution in 1033 Greek municipalities identifying (and testing the significance of) density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population growth between 1961 and 2011, using spatially implicit and explicit econometric approaches. Results highlight a positive impact of density on population growth where settlements are concentrated. Assuming goodness of fit of the tested models as a proxy of density-dependence, the empirical findings clarify how density-dependent mechanisms were not significant all over the study period, being instead associated with specific phases of the city life cycle—basically urbanization with population concentrating in central locations. Density-dependence was less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization—when population sprawled over larger areas at medium–low density. An improved understanding of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population growth contributes to rethink spatial planning, regional development strategies, and socio-demographic policies adapting to heterogeneous (and rapidly changing) local contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming a non-neutral impact of space, an explicit assessment of metropolitan hierarchies based on local regression models produces a refined description of population settlement patterns and processes over time. We used Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) to provide an enriched interpretation of the density gradient in Greece, estimating a spatially explicit rank–size relationship inspired by Zipf's law. The empirical results of the GWR models quantified the adherence of real data (municipal population density as a predictor of metropolitan hierarchy) to the operational assumptions of the rank–size relationship. Local deviations from its prediction were explained considering the peculiarity of the metropolitan cycle (1961–2011) in the country. Although preliminary and exploratory, these findings decomposed representative population dynamics in two stages of the cycle (namely urbanization, 1961–1991, and suburbanization, 1991–2011). Being in line with earlier studies, this timing allowed a geographical interpretation of the evolution of a particularly complex metropolitan system with intense (urban) primacy and a weak level of rural development over a sufficiently long time interval. Introducing a spatially explicit estimation of the rank–size relationship at detailed territorial resolutions provided an original contribution to regional science, covering broad geographical scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban transformations are associated with a broad spectrum of economic conditions. • This study links regional science with ecological metrics. • We identified non-linear stages of the metropolitan cycle in a Mediterranean city. • Urban expansion is a recursive process with sequential accelerations and decelerations. • Spatial planning is required to give adaptive responses to local development. Relocating activities along the fringe, re-designing economic functions, and re-modelling settlement structures across larger regions and broader spatial scales, reflect the inherent shift toward complex metropolitan systems. A refined understanding of urban change requires the adoption of a 'complex thinking' that focuses on adaptive behaviour of key agents and local development networks within highly volatile real estate markets. By linking ecology with regional science, our study investigates speed and spatial direction of building activity rates introducing original indicators of urban growth and an exploratory multivariate statistics of the evolving socioeconomic context in the Athens' region, Greece. Having experienced spatially uncoordinated growth that often resulted in self-organised settlements and socially diversified neighbourhoods, Athens was a paradigmatic example of complex metropolitan systems in Europe. The empirical findings of our study identify non-linear stages of the metropolitan cycle supporting the assumption that long-term urban expansion is a recursive process, with irregular accelerations and decelerations, and a complex relationship between spatial and temporal dimensions. Urban transformations are associated with a broad spectrum of socioeconomic conditions. While playing a variable role over the last century, the most relevant factors in Athens' growth include population dynamics, urban concentration, and wealth accumulation. Considering such dynamics, spatial planning is required to give adaptive responses to discontinuous socioeconomic development increasingly dependent on territorial aspects and environmental constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]