Search

The use of renewable energy sources has become strategic in the production of electricity worldwide due to global efforts to increase energy efficiency and achieve a net zero carbon footprint. Hybrid systems can maximize stability and reduce costs by combining multiple energy sources. A conventional metric, such as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), that is appropriate for assessing the cost-effectiveness of an option may not be appropriate when evaluating the economic feasibility of hybrid systems. This study proposes a stochastic discounted cash flow model (DCF) to assess the economic viability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) in Brazil. The objective is to determine the combinations that will provide the highest 50th percentile internal rate of return (IRR) and the lowest coefficient of variation (CV). Model variables include capital expenditures (CAPEX), operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, sectoral charges, taxes, and long-term energy production metrics. The results demonstrate that the synergies modeled contributed to the higher economic outcomes for the HRES obtained by combining both energy sources rather than opting for a stand-alone configuration. A wind-dominant combination of 60% wind was able to increase the 50th percentile of the IRR, while a solar-dominant combination of 65% solar minimized the CV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 24 billion pieces of surgical mask waste (WM) were generated in the EU region, with an acute shortage of their management and recycling. Pyrolysis and gasification are among the most promising treatments that were proposed to dispose of WMs and convert them into pyrolysis oil and hydrogen-rich syngas. This work aimed to investigate the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of both treatments in order to assess the feasibility of scaling up. The TEA was carried out using a discounted cash flow model and its data were collected from practical experiments conducted using a fluidised bed pyrolysis reactor and bubbling fluidised bed gasifier system with a capacity of 0.2 kg/h and 1 kg/h, respectively, then upscaling to one tonne/h. The technological evaluation was made based on the optimal conditions that could produce the maximum amount of pyrolysis oil (42.3%) and hydrogen-rich syngas (89.7%). These treatments were also compared to the incineration of WMs as a commercial solution. The discounted payback, simple payback, net present value (NPV), production cost, and internal rate of return (IRR) were the main indicators used in the economic feasibility analysis. Sensitivity analysis was performed using SimLab software with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the production cost of the main variables was estimated at 45.4 EUR/t (gate fee), 71.7 EUR/MWh (electricity), 30.5 EUR/MWh (heat), 356 EUR/t (oil), 221 EUR/t (gaseous), 237 EUR/t (char), and 257 EUR/t (syngas). Meanwhile, the IRR results showed that gasification (12.51%) and incineration (7.56%) have better economic performance, while pyrolysis can produce less revenue (1.73%). Based on the TEA results, it is highly recommended to use the gasification process to treat WMs, yielding higher revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The viability of converting wood chips and plastic to power via compact integrated catalytic fast/slow pyrolysis, combustor, and Stirling engine technologies was determined using modeling analysis. Aspen simulations followed by sizing analysis were performed to determine the size, weight, and net energy efficiency of upgrading wood chips and plastic to power using a compact energy system with a feedstock processing capacity of 1 kg h−1. The equipment and tooling to fabricate individual components of a compact energy system were identified. The total costs of fabricating all the individual components of compact energy systems were assessed. A discounted cash flow analysis with an internal rate of return of 20% was used to assess the minimum selling price of compact energy systems. The specific energy (Wh kg−1) of the compact catalytic fast pyrolysis system, compact slow pyrolysis system, and compact plastic conversion system were assessed at 20, 29, and 63, respectively. The assessed capital and annual costs of manufacturing 10 000 compact energy systems per year were $51 million and about $11 to $13 million, respectively. The calculated minimum selling price of a catalytic fast pyrolysis system, a compact slow pyrolysis system, and a compact plastic conversion system were $3055, $3021, and $2980, respectively. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the internal rate of return, capital investment, materials cost, annual operating costs, and capital cost have significant impacts on the minimum selling price of compact energy systems. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Subjective real option valuation uses same data inputs as traditional DCF analysis. • The value of delay stems from the investor's subjective views about risk premia. • Cost and revenue uncertainties have complex effects on the option value. • Hedging systematic risk can reduce the value of delaying investment. • The option value may increase or decrease with idiosyncratic, un-hedgeable risk. [Display omitted] We model investor heterogeneity using different required returns on an investment and evaluate the impact on the valuation of an investment. By assuming no disagreement on the cash flows, we emphasize how risk preferences in particular, but also the costs of capital, influence a subjective evaluation of the decision to invest now or retain the option to invest in future. We propose a risk-adjusted valuation model to facilitate investors' subjective decision making, in response to the market valuation of an investment opportunity. The investor's subjective assessment arises from their perceived misvaluation of the investment by the market, so projected cash flows are discounted using two different rates representing the investor's and the market's view. This liberates our model from perfect or imperfect hedging assumptions and instead, we are able to illustrate the hedging effect on the real option value when perceptions of risk premia diverge. During crises periods, delaying an investment becomes more valuable as the idiosyncratic risk of future cash flows increases, but the decision-maker may rush to invest too quickly when the risk level is exceptionally high. Our model verifies features established by classical real-option valuation models and provides many new insights about the importance of modelling divergences in decision-makers risk premia, especially during crisis periods. It also has many practical advantages because it requires no more parameter inputs than basic discounted cash flow approaches, such as the marketed asset disclaimer method, but the outputs are much richer. They allow for complex interactions between cost and revenue uncertainties as well as an easy exploration of the effects of hedgeable and un-hedgeable risks on the real option value. Furthermore, we provide fully-adjustable Python code in which all parameter values can be chosen by the user. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is a prominent clean fuel option for combatting global warming and producing low-emission, ecologically friendly electricity. Consequently, the proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) hydrogen refueling station has undergone thorough economic and environmental analysis. This work intends to fill the gap by presenting the influence of various operating circumstances and design parameters on the economic and environmental aspects of PEMWE based on various behaviors and features (I–V curve) under various scenarios. Profitability analysis (PA) is performed in terms of the net present value (NPV), discounted payback period (DPBP), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and internal rate of return (IRR) from cumulative discounted cash flow diagrams (CFD). Also, sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted to assess the impact of different economic factors, while simultaneously establishing CO 2 footprint guidelines for optimal operating and design conditions. The findings highlight that enhancing economic feasibility and reducing environmental concerns are simultaneously achievable by increasing cathode pressure, operating temperature, and decreasing membrane thickness. At membrane thicknesses over 100 μm, the project becomes unprofitable and inefficient at 1.85 V. PEMWE becomes more valuable and sustainable with a current density of 12,000 A/m2 or higher, but it releases more CO 2 emissions. Hence, utilizing excess renewable electricity in PEMWE addresses environmental concerns and enhances the overall ecological sustainability of hydrogen production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Design of an integrated catalytic deoxygenation and hydrothermal gasification was performed. • Using experimental data, a high-fidelity process model was created with Aspen Plus. • Exergy analysis results showed that the deoxygenation reactor's exergy efficiencies are superior. • Equipment and raw material costs have superior effect influences on economic viability. Several technologies have been developed to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the hydroprocessing of esters and fatty acids (HEFA) representing one of the most mature pathways. Although HEFA has been widely adopted by industry, this pathway is mainly reliant on the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) reaction, which requires large amounts and high pressures of hydrogen gas that reduces the cost-effectiveness of the process. In this study, the economic, environmental, and exergy analyses of two alternative scenarios for the catalytic production of SAF were considered. In both scenarios, SAF is produced through the catalytic deoxygenation of tall oil fatty acid (TOFA) via decarboxylation/decarbonylation (deCO x) – an approach requiring smaller amounts and lower pressures of hydrogen, feedstocks of lower purity and cost, and simpler supported metal catalysts relative to HDO. The material and energy balance was calculated using Aspen Plus process simulation software. Scenario 1 comprises a plant in which the catalytic deoxygenation of TOFA via deCO x is performed using hydrogen gas obtained commercially, while scenario 2 integrates catalytic deoxygenation with a plant that produces hydrogen gas via hydrothermal gasification. The study revealed that both scenarios were economically feasible relative to other pathways for SAF production, with the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of scenario 2 (USD$ 0.39/L) being lower than that of scenario 1 (USD$ 0.62/L). In addition to being the most economically viable, scenario 2 was also found to be preferable from an environmental standpoint since it also shows a lower global warming potential (GWP). Discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA) was used to determine other economic indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), net rate of return (NRR) and payback period (PBP), which was estimated to be approximately 3 years for both scenarios. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms that the raw materials and equipment purchase costs have the greatest impact on the MFSP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of lignocellulose biomass on dedicated plantations is an option that facilitates the implementation of sustainable development policy. The novelty of this type of research is that it involves the use of various types of methods—economic and legal analyses within a particular subject. This makes it possible to obtain a holistic view of the chosen case study. The purpose of this study was to determine whether setting up a Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) plantation of willow (Salix spp.) and poplar (Populus spp.) was economically profitable and if the legal regulations supported this type of production. The economic data are based on an experimental case study. The economic profitability of the plantations was assessed through an analysis of discounted cash flows, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and profitability index (PI). The legal analysis of the relevant EU and Polish legal solutions was based on a dogmatic approach. The study demonstrated that SRC cultivation was mostly hindered by economic factors, including the low selling price of biomass as an energy resource and the high costs of harvest. Meanwhile, in the analysed period, i.e., from 2015 to 2020, there were no additional legal or economic forms of support for this type of production that was addressed directly to lignocellulose biomass producers, with the exception of the standard support under the Common Agricultural Policy framework. The results of this study provide information for decisionmakers about the opportunities and challenges experienced during the development of SRC plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The state of São Paulo offers ten potential scenarios for the establishment of biorefineries. • Eucalyptus residues are a promising feedstock that produces 71,000 tons of bio-oil/year. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil varies according to plant capacities between from $11.6 to 19.3/GJ. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil is particularly sensitive to plant capacity and yield. • Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gasoil can contribute 3.4 % of total "green fuel" in Brazil. Forestry residue is potentially useful for obtaining bio-oil and its by-products (biochar, syngas, and acid-rich aqueous extract) via fast pyrolysis. As such, we carried out a techno-economic analysis of both the production of bio-oil from Eucalyptus grandis residues (ER) and their availability in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Discounted cash flow was used to calculate the minimum selling price (MSP) of bio-oil. Georeferencing identified the location of 20 Eucalyptus plantations, ten of which were selected due to their better economic performance. These ten plantations were potentially able to produce 59 million L/year of bio-oil. The economic analysis of the future biorefineries showed that an MSP of 11.6–19.3 $ (US)/GJ could support the processing of 60,000–5,000 tons/year of ER. A simulation of a large biorefinery revealed a capital investment (CAPEX) of around 6 M$ (US), reaching an operating expenditure peak of approximately 3 M$/year. The sensitivity analysis identified that plant capacity had the most significant impact on MSP, while the by-products (acid extract and biochar) lowered this by 22 %. The large biorefinery simulated using the Monte Carlo method had an 80 % chance of reaching a net present value (NPV) > 0, and an 80 % probability of reaching an internal rate of return (IRR) > 10 %. This study demonstrated that the production of bio-oils by the ten simulated centralized biorefineries is economically viable based on the NPV and IRR indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the potential risks of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure in the Netherlands. An integrated risk assessment framework, capable of analyzing projects, identifying risks and comparing projects, is used to identify and analyze the main risks in the upcoming Dutch hydrogen infrastructure project. A time multiplier is added to the framework to develop parameters. The impact of the different risk categories provided by the integrated framework is calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Despite resource risks having the highest impact, scope risks are shown to be the most prominent in the hydrogen infrastructure project. To present the DCF model results, a risk assessment matrix is constructed. Compared to the conventional Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) used to present project risks, this matrix presents additional information in terms of the internal rate of return and risk specifics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Hydrothermal carbonization can readily convert paunch waste to value-added products. • Process modelling indicates that pre-heater and dryer are the main energy consumer. • Hydrothermal carbonization technology development is challenged by reactor high cost. • Treating dewatered paunch waste is more commercially viable despite lower conversion. • Economic viability is highly sensitive to LHSV of reactor and economic assumptions. In this study, dewatered and raw paunch waste, with 15 and 3 wt% total solids respectively, generated at abattoirs was hydrothermally carbonised under subcritical water conditions. Higher solids content was found to produce higher hydrochar yield (i.e. 53% for 15 wt% compared to 33.5% for 3 wt%) at similar operating conditions of 10 bar and 240 °C for 5 min. The morphological differences were noted via Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in the hydrochar samples, and the surface area for processing raw paunch waste was found to be 68.1 m2 g−1 compared to 10.8 m2 g−1 in case of dewatered paunch waste. The light bio-oil was mostly composed of phenolic compounds while the heavy bio-oil mainly contained long chain fatty acids and their esters. Following the experimental work, a full-scale ASPEN Plus process model was developed for a typical abattoir generating 27 tonne dry paunch waste per day. Pre-heater and hydrochar dryer contributed to 73% and 57% of the total energy for processing raw and dewatered paunch waste, respectively, because of the high moisture content of the feedstock and hydrochar. After the equipment sizing and estimation of capital and operating costs, the discounted cash flow analysis was performed using the Nth-Plant financing assumptions. It was concluded that treating dewatered paunch waste is preferable as it: needed a smaller reactor i.e. lower overall initial investment, was less sensitive to bio-oil price, and improved the net present value over a period of 30 years to $2.8 MM. Besides the liquid hourly speed velocity, its commercial viability is highly sensitive to internal rate of return and existence of hydrochar dryer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]