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This article investigates spillovers from foreign economies to the U.S. through changes in long-term Treasury yields. We document a decline in the contribution of U.S. domestic news to the variance of long-term Treasury yields and an increased importance of overnight yield changes, a proxy for foreign shocks' contribution to U.S. yields. A model that identifies U.S., Euro area, and U.K. shocks that move global yields suggests that foreign shocks account for at least 20% of the daily variation in long-term U.S. yields in recent years. We also document the predictability of long-term U.S. yields by the U.S.–foreign yield spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amadeus et al. (2022) observe that aggregated, consensus (top-down) central bank monetary tones in media contain predictive information pertaining to future weekly yield fluctuations. This article elucidates the more granular, stratified (bottom-up) dynamics underlying these relations. The predictive relationships between Fed consensus tones and yields are primarily driven by an underreaction of yields to the Fed Board of Governors' tones between monetary policy meetings. Over short-term horizons, Treasury yields appear to price voting FOMC members' (Board of Governors' and Regional Bank Presidents') tones while relatively longer-term horizon yields appear to reflect both voting and non-voting tones. Fed Regional Bank Presidents' monetary tones are more responsive to regional inflation fluctuations than to unemployment. The analysis of the heterogeneous impacts of Fed members' tones over distinct yield horizons provides insights pertaining to the pricing of voting and non-voting Fed members' tones in Treasury markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the article is to examine whether inflation-indexed treasury bonds issued by the Polish Minister of Finance protect investors’ capital against the negative consequences of an increase in the price level. Design/methodology/approach: The condition which has to be met in order to achieve a positive net rate of return in real terms has been established. The historical and current rates of return on investment in the inflation-indexed treasury bonds issued by the Polish Minister of Finance were analysed to check whether they meet this condition. Findings: Own research has shown that in general, operation principle of bonds indexed to inflation should allow the investor to gain protection from negative effects of price changes. Yet, the example of Polish treasury bonds shows that systematic reduction of interest premiums for the subsequent series of issued instruments, changes in the operation principles, negative effect of taxation and materialisation of the defined in article time-shift mismatch risk – in the high-inflation environment results in significantly negative values of the current net rates of return in real terms of the latest series of COI and EDO bonds. This means that these bonds have not protected investors from the negative effects of price increases and loss of purchase power of invested capital. Research limitations/implications: The levels of real rates of return calculated in the way presented in the article, i.e. based on official data of the Statistics Poland, are representative for the entire economy, yet do not have to translate into the same value for the individuals – real rates of return calculated appropriately for the individual investor may vary in both ways and therefore be more or less favourable than presented in the article. Originality/value: The demand for these investment products is increasing, which is surprising in the light of the article’s findings. That may, result from investors’ expectations regarding a decrease in inflation in the coming periods, as well as the fact that, despite the negative profitability in real terms, these instruments can more effectively minimize the real-term losses stemming from inflation than other types of investments of a similar risk level (deposits, savings accounts) what can be furtherly reviewed in the next research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crypto-currency is distinct featured digital asset designed to work as decentralized asset, yet it has raised many questions and doubts about its definition and regulations. Keeping in view the increasing interest of masses in crypto-currencies the research is extended to examine the role of crypto-currency in diversification of investment. Bivariate analysis of crypto-currency market and other asset classes like gold, exchange rate, stock returns and government bonds has been observed among countries where cryptocurrencies are being traded most frequently over 2013 to 2020. Theoretically the study intends to provide substantial support for risk management by using estimates like hedge ratio, VECM and BEKK GARCH. Practically the study aims to provide empirical justifications for investors, managers and policy makers to figure out exactly where crypto-currencies stand along with other asset classes, and what actually it brings to the financial system. It concludes that there is long term causal relationship running from traditional assets to crypto-currency market, co-movements are observed. The change in crypto-currency returns may not affect returns of traditional assets yet as any change in traditional assets may possibly upsurge towards change in crypto-currency market in the long term which indicates opportunities for crypto-currencies to hedge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a dynamic change of measure approach for computing analytical solutions of expected future prices (and therefore, expected returns) of contingent claims over a finite horizon. The new approach constructs hybrid probability measures called equivalent expectation measures (EEMs) that provide the physical expectation of the claim's future price before the horizon date, and serve as pricing measures on or after the horizon date. The EEM theory can be used for empirical investigations of both the cross‐section and the term structure of returns of contingent claims, such as Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, and financial derivatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current theories support an inverse relationship between the expected return on investment and the associated risk. The DCF valuation method highlights the fact that the value of the company is given by the ratio between the excess cash (at the numerator) and the risk assimilated by the capitalization rate (at the denominator). The modern portfolio theory MPT considers that the proportion of recommended securities is on a parabola in mean-variance space, the risk being assimilated to uncertainty. Practitioners assess the target and the risk (take profit/stop loss) based on the methods of technical analysis. We appreciate that these theories are divergent from each other, disconnected and therefore difficult to unify. Our approach, based on the probabilities associated with each level of future quotations, eliminates the disadvantages of current theories. The answer found is to try to establish as realistically as possible what the chances are that, over a certain period of time, a title will have a certain quotation (or be in a certain range). For reasons somewhat similar to those of sports betting, the conclusion that emerges from the article is that this approach, if well developed, gives superior results to those currently used. In subsequent studies, forecasting methods are to be developed, because we consider them the most important in the investment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]