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As the world's glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long‐standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing glacier melt in high mountains and increasing the size and number of glacial lakes. Over time, these lakes may drain catastrophically to generate glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can devastate downstream communities and destroy valuable infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and hydroelectric power facilities. As a result, many risk assessments have been carried out to understand what the triggers of GLOFs might be, in order to better predict their occurrence. One of the main triggers has been assumed to be earthquakes, but this association has not been properly tested. In this paper, we use earthquake and GLOF data from the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes to test this and find that there is little association between earthquakes and GLOFs. We conclude by arguing that focus needs to be on other GLOF triggers, and earthquake activity should be used as a secondary – not primary – indicator in GLOF susceptibility studies. Key Points: Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major risk concern, with earthquakes being commonly considered effective triggers in hazard assessmentsOf 59 earthquakes (1900–2021), the effects of which intersect lakes in the Tropical Andes, only one triggered GLOFsWe suggest that earthquake activity should be used as a secondary – not primary – susceptibility indicator for GLOFs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may affect sediment fluvial export from high mountain regions, leading to downstream environmental disruptions and direct impacts on human activities. In this paper, three decades (1990–2020) of turbidity measurements, along with climate and hydro‐glaciological variables, were used to investigate the interannual and interdecadal variability in the number of extreme turbidity events (ETE) in the glacierized Maipo River basin, located in the western subtropical Andes. ETE are defined as a sequence of days (most often 1 or 2) during which the daily maximum turbidity was in the 99% quantile of the entire study period. Some of these events compromised the drinking water provision for the city of Santiago, with more than 6 million inhabitants. ETE are more frequent during summer and are mostly associated with melt‐favourable conditions. The number of ETE tends to increase in summers with large glacier ice melt and low snowmelt (outside or over glaciers). Most notable, the mean annual number of ETE exhibits a 6‐fold increase in the last decade compared with the 1990–2010 period. After 2010, ETE also shifted their seasonal maximum from late spring to mid‐summer and their occurrence became strongly coupled with large ice melt rates. We hypothesize that such regime change was caused by an enhanced hydrological connectivity of subglacial sediment pools that increased the sensitivity of the sediment system to glacier melt. The latter is in line with recent research and is consistent with the ongoing glacier retreat due to strong regional warming and drying. Plain Language Summary: Climate change may affect sediment fluvial transport from high mountain regions, leading to environmental disruptions and direct impacts on human activities. In this paper, three decades (1990–2020) of river turbidity measurements to investigate how extreme turbidity events (ETE) have changed in the glacierized Maipo River basin, subtropical Andes. ETE are defined as a sequence of days (most often one or two) during which the turbidity was very high. Some of these events compromised the drinking water provision for the city of Santiago, with more than 6 million inhabitants. ETE are more frequent during summer and are mostly associated with melt‐favourable conditions. Most notable, the mean number of ETE exhibits a sharp increase in the last decade compared with the 1990–2010 period. After 2010, ETE also shifted their seasonal maximum from late spring to mid‐summer and their occurrence became strongly coupled with large ice melt rates. We hypothesize that such regime change was caused by meltwater that has reached subglacial sediments that used to be confined under the glacier ice. The latter is in line with recent research and is consistent with the ongoing glacier retreat as a consequence of intense regional warming and drying. Key Points: The interannual and interdecadal variability in the number of extreme turbidity events are analyzed in a glacierized basin of the AndesMost events are melt‐driven and their number increased by a factor of six during the last decade with respect to the 1990–2010 averageIt is hypothesized that the rise was due to a higher hydraulic connectivity in the subglacial system driven by regional warming and drying [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Viscous-flow features in perennially frozen talus/debris called rock glaciers are being systematically inventoried as part of the global climate-related monitoring of mountain permafrost. In order to avoid duplication and confusion, guidelines were developed by the International Permafrost Association to discriminate between the permafrost-related landform "rock glacier" and the glacier-related landform "debris-covered glacier". In two regions covered by detailed field measurements, the corresponding data- and physics-based concepts are tested and shown to be adequate. Key physical aspects which cause the striking morphological and dynamic differences between the two phenomena/landforms concern the following: tight mechanical coupling of the surface material to the frozen rock–ice mixture in the case of rock glaciers, contrasting with essential non-coupling of debris to the glaciers they cover; talus-type advancing fronts of rock glaciers exposing fresh debris material from inside the moving frozen bodies, as opposed to massive surface ice exposed by increasingly rare advancing fronts of debris-covered glaciers; and increasing creep rates and continued advance of rock glaciers as convex landforms with structured surfaces versus predominant slowing down and disintegration of debris-covered glaciers as often concave landforms with primarily chaotic surface structure. Where debris-covered surface ice is or has recently been in contact with thermally controlled subsurface ice in permafrost, complex conditions and interactions can develop morphologies beyond simple either–or-type landform classification. In such cases, the remains of buried surface ice mostly tend to be smaller than the lower size limit of "glaciers" as the term is applied in glacier inventories and to be far thinner than the permafrost in which they are embedded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution in the central zone of Chile is not only a public health concern but also threatens water resources and climate, in connection with the transport and deposition of black carbon (BC) from urban centers onto the glaciers of the Andes. Chemistry-transport simulations reveal a seasonal dichotomy in the flux and latitudinal pattern of BC deposition on glaciers of the central Chilean Andes. The average deposition flux of BC on glaciers between 30 and 37 ∘ S is 4 times larger in winter, affecting mostly low-elevation glaciers, whereas the smaller summertime flux affects glaciers evenly, irrespective of their elevation. The contribution of emissions from the city of Santiago is dominant in summertime with more than 50 % along the Andes but minor in wintertime with less than 20 % even close to the capital city. Transport at larger scales and more local sources likely account for the remaining flux. The superimposition of synoptic-scale circulation and local mountain-valley circulation along the Andes drives the differences between summertime and wintertime deposition fluxes and generates a greater meteorological export potential during summer months. Future emissions and climate projections suggest that under the RCP8.5 scenario the gap between summertime and wintertime BC export and deposition flux could decrease, thereby pointing to summertime emission control gaining relevance. The chemistry-transport modeling approach for BC deposition on the Andes sheds light on the importance of the often disregarded summertime emissions on the radiative balance of its glaciers, particularly in the vicinity of Santiago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the glaciers on the Antisana ice cap (tropical Andes) over the period 1956–2016. Based on geodetic observations of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images, we explore the effects of morpho-topographic and climate variables on glacier volumes. Contrasting behaviour was observed over the whole period, with two periods of strong mass loss, 1956–1964 (-0.72 m w.e. yr -1) and 1979–1997 (-0.82 m w.e. yr -1), and two periods with slight mass loss, 1965–1978 (0.10 m w.e. yr -1) and 1998–2016 (-0.26 m w.e. yr -1). There was a 42 % reduction in the total surface area of the ice cap. Individually, glacier responses were modulated by morpho-topographic variables (e.g. maximum and median altitude and surface area), particularly in the case of the small tongues located at low elevations (Glacier 1, 5 and 16) which have been undergoing accelerated disintegration since the 1990s and will likely disappear in the coming years. Moreover, thanks to the availability of aerial data, a surging event was detected on the Antisana Glacier 8 (G8) in the 2009–2011 period; such an event is extremely rare in this region and deserves a dedicated study. Despite the effect of the complex topography, glaciers have reacted in agreement with changes in climate forcing, with a stepwise transition towards warmer and alternating wet–dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Long-term decadal variability is consistent with the warm–cold conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean represented by the Southern Oscillation index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Last Glacial Termination (T1) featured major changes in global circulation systems that led to a shift from glacial to interglacial climate. While polar ice cores attest to an antiphased thermal pattern at millennial timescales, recent well-dated moraine records from both hemispheres suggest in-phase fluctuations in glaciers through T1, which is inconsistent with the bipolar see-saw paradigm. Here, we present a glacier chronology based on 30 new 10Be surface exposure ages from well-preserved moraines in the Lago Palena/General Vintter basin in northern Patagonia (~ 44°S). We find that the main glacier lobe underwent profound retreat after 19.7 ± 0.7 ka. This recessional trend led to the individualization of the Cerro Riñón glacier by ~ 16.3 ka, which underwent minor readvances at 15.9 ± 0.5 ka during Heinrich Stadial 1, during the Antarctic Cold Reversal with successive maxima at 13.5 ± 0.4, 13.1 ± 0.4, and 13.1 ± 0.5 ka, and a minor culmination at 12.5 ± 0.4 ka during Younger Dryas time. We conclude that fluctuations of Patagonian glaciers during T1 were controlled primarily by climate anomalies brought by shifts in the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) locus. We posit that the global covariation of mountain glaciers during T1 was linked to variations in atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) promoted by the interplay of the SWW-Southern Ocean system at millennial timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides in deglaciated and deglaciating mountains represent a major hazard, but their distribution at the spatial scale of entire mountain belts has rarely been studied. Traditional models of landslide distribution assume that landslides are concentrated in the steepest, wettest, and most tectonically active parts of the orogens, where glaciers reached their greatest thickness. However, based on mapping large landslides (> 0.9 km2) over an unprecedentedly large area of Southern Patagonia (~ 305,000 km2), we show that the distribution of landslides can have the opposite trend. We show that the largest landslides within the limits of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) cluster along its eastern margins occupying lower, tectonically less active, and arid part of the Patagonian Andes. In contrast to the heavily glaciated, highest elevations of the mountain range, the peripheral regions have been glaciated only episodically, leaving a larger volume of unstable sedimentary and volcanic rocks that are subject to ongoing slope instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on new and published cosmic-ray exposure chronologies, we show that glacier extent in the tropical Andes and the north Atlantic regions (TANAR) varied in-phase on millennial timescales during the Holocene, distinct from other regions. Glaciers experienced an early Holocene maximum extent, followed by a strong mid-Holocene retreat and a re-advance in the late Holocene. We further explore the potential forcing of TANAR glacier variations using transient climate simulations. Since the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolution is poorly represented in these transient simulations, we develop a semi-empirical model to estimate the "AMOC-corrected" temperature and precipitation footprint at regional scales. We show that variations in the AMOC strength during the Holocene are consistent with the observed glacier changes. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain past AMOC behavior, as it may be an important driver of TANAR glacier variations during the Holocene, superimposed on other forcing mechanisms. Glaciers showed a similar evolution in Greenland, Europe, the US and the tropical Andes during the Holocene. The authors propose the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Overturning Circulation as a key driver of this trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One way of deducing vertical shifts in the altitudinal distribution of Colombian high-altitude páramo environments is by inferring fluctuations in the height of the local freezing level. In our research, we are implementing two complementary approaches to reconstruct Late Pleistocene to Holocene changes in the freezing level height (FLH) in two of the most extensively glacier-covered areas of the northern Andes. We combined remote sensing and field-based geomorphological mapping with time-series reconstruction of changes in the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. Changes in the FLH were based on already-published ∼30 kyr paleo-reconstructions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Atlantic, as well as on reconstructed long-term sea level changes and empirical orthogonal functions of present-day (historical) Indo-Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. We also analyzed the probability distribution of air-sea temperature differences and the spatial distribution of grid points with SSTs above the minimum threshold necessary to initiate deep convection. We considered available historical near-surface and free air temperature data of ERA-Interim reanalysis products, General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, weather stations, and (deployed by our group) digital sensors, to assess the normal Environmental Lapse Rates (ELRs) at the regional to local scale. The combined maps of glacial landforms and our reconstructed FLHs provided us with a well-founded inference of potential past glacier advances, narrowing down the coarse resolution of ice margins suggested by previous research efforts. The extent of the areas with temperatures below the freezing point suggested here for the summits of our main study site exceeds in magnitude the corresponding glacier icecaps and front advances proposed by previous studies. Conversely, our average lowest altitudes of the FLH for our comparative site are consistently above the main glacier-front advances previously suggested. Our results indicate that, compared to the maximum upward changes that likely took place over the past ca. observed (present-day) upward shifts of the FLH have occurred at a rate that significantly surpasses our inferred rates. Our study helps fill the gaps in understanding past climatic changes and present trends in the region of interest and provides some insights into analyzing the signals of natural and anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many mountain regions around the world are exposed to enhanced warming when compared to their surroundings, threatening key environmental services provided by mountains. Here we investigate this effect, known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), in the Andes of Ecuador, using observations and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. EDW is discernible in observations of mean and maximum temperature in the Andes of Ecuador, but large uncertainties remain due to considerable data gaps in both space and time. WRF simulations of present-day (1986–2005) and future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041–60) reveal a very distinct EDW signal, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. This EDW effect is the combined result of multiple feedback mechanisms that operate on different spatial scales. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming projects onto surface temperature on both sides of the Andes. In addition, changes in the zonal mean midtropospheric circulation lead to enhanced subsidence and warming over the western slopes at high elevation. The increased subsidence also induces drying, reduces cloudiness, and results in enhanced net surface radiation receipts, further contributing to stronger warming. Finally, the highest elevations are also affected by the snow-albedo feedback, due to significant reductions in snow cover by the middle of the twenty-first century. While these feedbacks are more pronounced in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, our results indicate that high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at enhanced rates in the twenty-first century, regardless of emission scenario. Significance Statement: Mountains are often projected to experience stronger warming than their surrounding lowlands going forward, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), which can threaten high-altitude ecosystems and lead to accelerated glacier retreat. We investigate the mechanisms associated with EDW in the Andes of Ecuador using both observations and model simulations for the present and the future. A combination of factors amplify warming at mountain tops, including a stronger warming high in the atmosphere, reduced cloudiness, and a reduction of snow and ice at high elevations. The latter two factors also favor enhanced absorption of sunlight, which promotes warming. The degree to which this warming is enhanced at high elevations in the future depends on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to reduce water security in arid mountain regions around the world. Vulnerable water supplies in semi-arid zones, such as the Dry Andes, are projected to be further stressed through changes in air temperature, precipitation patterns, sublimation, and evapotranspiration. Together with glacier recession this will negatively impact water availability. While glacier hydrology has been the focus of scientific research for a long time, relatively little is known about the hydrology of mountain permafrost. In contrast to glaciers, where ice is at the surface and directly affected by atmospheric conditions, the behaviour of permafrost and ground ice is more complex, as other factors, such as variable surficial sediments, vegetation cover, or shallow groundwater flow, influence heat transfer and time scales over which changes occur. The effects of permafrost on water flow paths have been studied in lowland areas, with limited research in the mountains. An understanding of how permafrost degradation and associated melt of ground ice (where present) contribute to streamflow in mountain regions is still lacking. Mountain permafrost, particularly rock glaciers, is often conceptualized as a (frozen) water reservoir; however, rates of permafrost ground ice melt and the contribution to water budgets are rarely considered. Additionally, ground ice and permafrost are not directly visible at the surface; hence, uncertainties related to their three-dimensional extent are orders of magnitude higher than those for glaciers. Ground ice volume within permafrost must always be approximated, further complicating estimations of its response to climate change. This review summarizes current understanding of mountain permafrost hydrology, discusses challenges and limitations, and provides suggestions for areas of future research, using the Dry Andes as a basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]