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We tested the hypothesis that low plasma adiponectin is associated observationally and causally with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Observational analyses are prone to confounding and reverse causation, while genetic Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses are much less influenced by these biases. We examined 30,045 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study observationally (plasma adiponectin [1,751 individuals with type 2 diabetes]), 96,903 Copenhagen individuals using one-sample MR (5 genetic variants [5,012 individuals with type 2 diabetes]), and 659,316 Europeans (ADIPOGen, GERA, DIAGRAM, UK Biobank) using two-sample MR (10 genetic variants [62,892 individuals type 2 diabetes]). Observationally, and in comparisons with individuals with median plasma adiponectin of 28.9 μg/mL (4th quartile), multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes were 1.42 (95% CI 1.18-1.72) for 19.2 μg/mL (3rd quartile), 2.21 (1.84-2.66) for 13.9 μg/mL (2nd quartile), and 4.05 (3.38-4.86) for 9.2 μg/mL (1st quartile). Corresponding cumulative incidence for type 2 diabetes at age 70 years was 3%, 7%, 11%, and 20%, respectively. A 1 μg/mL lower plasma adiponectin conferred an HR for type 2 diabetes of 1.07 (1.06-1.09), while genetic, causal risk ratio per 1 unit log-transformed lower plasma adiponectin was 1.13 (95% CI 0.83-1.53) in one-sample MR and 1.26 (1.01-1.57) in two-sample MR. In conclusion, low plasma adiponectin is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, an association that could represent a causal relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The apolipoprotein E(APOE) ϵ2/ϵ3/ϵ4 polymorphism plays a central role in lipid metabolism, vascular disease and dementia. The impact of the full range of structural genetic variation in APOE for lipids, lipoproteins and apolipoproteins and for vascular disease in the general population is not known. We systematically sequenced APOE in 10,296 individuals from the Copenhagen City Heart Study and genotyped nine rare variants (frequency≥2/10,296) in 95,227 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. The UK Biobank was used for validation of common APOE variants. Rare mutations in APOE , predicted to be deleterious, are present in 1 in 257 individuals in the general population. In the meta-analysis, multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for ϵ44 and ϵ22 versus ϵ33 were 1.15 (1.04–1.26) and 1.02 (0.83–1.24) for ischemic cerebrovascular disease (ICVD), 1.11 (1.04–1.19) and 0.94 (0.83–1.08) for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and 1.03 (0.89–1.17) and 1.49 (1.20–1.87) for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). A multifactorially and ϵ2/ϵ3/ϵ4 adjusted weighted allele score on the continuous scale including all common and rare structural variants showed that for individuals with genetically predicted high plasma apoE and remnant cholesterol the risk for PAD was increased. APOE variants with high apoE, triglycerides, and remnant cholesterol are associated with PAD, whereas common APOE variants with high LDL cholesterol, triglycerides and remnant cholesterol are associated with IHD. APOE variants with low apoE are associated with increased risk of ICVD. These findings highlight that both rare and common structural variations in APOE play a role in vascular disease. [Display omitted] • The APOE ϵ2/ϵ3/ϵ4 polymorphism plays a central role in lipid metabolism. • We sequenced APOE in 10,296 and genotyped rare variants in 95,227 individuals. • ϵ2-like variants are associated with peripheral arterial disease. • Variants with low apoE are associated with ischemic cerebrovascular disease. • Structural variations in APOE beyond the ϵ2 and ϵ4 alleles play a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635–0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840–0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67–2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14–2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659–0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841–0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87–2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16–2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS 269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping. Our findings suggest that in men of African and European ancestry, genome-wide polygenic risk scores including >1 million variants are not more predictive of prostate cancer risk than a carefully constructed polygenic risk score limited to variants with statistical evidence of an association with prostate cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]