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Short-term power load forecasting is of great significance for the reliable and safe operation of power systems. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, for the problems of random fluctuation in load and the complexity of load-influencing factors, this paper proposes a two-stage short-term load forecasting method, SSA–VMD-LSTM-MLR-FE (SVLM–FE) based on sparrow search algorithm (SSA), to optimize variational mode decomposition (VMD) and feature engineering (FE). Firstly, an evaluation criterion on the loss of VMD decomposition is proposed, and SSA is used to find the optimal combination of parameters for VMD under this criterion. Secondly, the first stage of forecasting is carried out, and the different components obtained from SSA–VMD are predicted separately, with the high-frequency components input to a long short-term memory network (LSTM) for forecasting and the low-frequency components input to a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for forecasting. Finally, the forecasting values of the components obtained in the first stage are input to the second stage for error correction; factors with a high degree of influence on the load are selected using the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC), and the load value at the moment that has a great influence on the load value at the time to be predicted is selected using autocorrelation function (ACF). The forecasting values of the components are fused with the selected feature values to construct a vector, which is fed into the fully connected layer for forecasting. In this paper, the performance of SVLM–FE is evaluated experimentally on two datasets from two places in China. In Place 1, the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are 128.169 MW, 102.525 MW, and 1.562%, respectively; in Place 2, the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are 111.636 MW, 92.291 MW, and 1.426%, respectively. The experimental results show that SVLM–FE has high accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medium–long-term photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting is of great significance to power grid planning, power market transactions, power dispatching operations, equipment maintenance and overhaul. However, PV output fluctuates greatly due to weather changes. Furthermore, it is frequently challenging to ensure the accuracy of forecasts for medium–long-term forecasting involving a long time span. In response to the above problems, this paper proposes a medium–long-term forecasting method for PV output based on amplitude-aware permutation entropy component reconstruction and the graph attention network. Firstly, the PV output sequence data are decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and the decomposed intrinsic mode function (IMF) subsequences are combined and reconstructed according to the amplitude-aware permutation entropy. Secondly, the graph node feature sequence is constructed from the reconstructed subsequences, and the mutual information of the node feature sequence is calculated to obtain the graph node adjacency matrix which is applied to generate a graph sequence. Thirdly, the graph attention network is utilized to forecast the graph sequence and separate the PV output forecasting results. Finally, an actual measurement system is used to experimentally verify the proposed method, and the outcomes indicate that the proposed method, which has certain promotion value, can improve the accuracy of medium–long-term forecasting of PV output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable medium- and long-term load forecasting is crucial for the rational planning and operation of power systems. However, existing methods often struggle to accurately extract and capture long-term dependencies in load data, leading to poor predictive accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes a medium- and long-term residential load forecasting method based on FEDformer, aiming to capture long-term temporal dependencies of load data in the frequency domain while considering factors such as electricity prices and temperature, ultimately improving the accuracy of medium- and long-term load forecasting. The proposed model employs Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) for frequency domain transformation of time-series data to address the Gibbs phenomenon caused by the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) in FEDformer. Additionally, causal convolution and attention mechanisms are applied in the frequency domain to enhance the model's capability to capture long-term dependencies. The model is evaluated using real-world load data from power systems, and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively learns the temporal and nonlinear characteristics of load data. Compared to other baseline models, DCTformer improves prediction accuracy by 37.5% in terms of MSE, 26.9% in terms of MAE, and 26.24% in terms of RMSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term load forecasting is the key to ensuring smooth and efficient power system operation and power market dispatch planning. However, the nonlinear, non-stationary, and time series nature of load sequences makes load forecasting difficult. To address these problems, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method (EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA) based on the hybrid decomposition of load sequences, which combines ensemble patch transform (EPT), variational modal decomposition (VMD), a temporal convolutional network (TCN), and a temporal pattern attention mechanism (TPA). In which, the trend component (Tr(t)) and the residual fluctuation component (Re(t)) of the load series are extracted using EPT, and then the Re(t) component is decomposed into intrinsic modal function components (IMFs) of different frequencies using VMD. The Tr(t) and IMFs components of the fused meteorological data are predicted separately by the TCN-TPA prediction model, and finally, the prediction results of each component are reconstructed and superimposed to obtain the final predicted value of the load. In addition, experiments after reconstructing each IMF component according to the fuzzy entropy (FE) values are discussed in this paper. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method in this paper, we used datasets from two Areas of the 9th Mathematical Modeling Contest in China. The experimental results show that the predictive precision of the EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA model outperforms other comparative models. More specifically, the experimental results of the EPT-VMD-TCN-TPA method had a MAPE of 1.25% and 1.58% on Area 1 and Area 2 test sets, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of feature selection and error correction after mode decomposition and improve the ability of power load forecasting models to capture complex time series information, a two-stage short-term power load forecasting method based on recursive feature elimination with a cross validation (RFECV) algorithm and time convolution network–efficient channel attention mechanism–long short-term memory network (TCN–ECA–LSTM) is presented. First, the load sequence is decomposed into a relatively stable set of modal components using variational mode decomposition. Then, the RFECV-based method filters the feature set of each modal component to construct the best feature set. Finally, a two-stage prediction model based on TCN–ECA–LSTM is established. The first stage predicts each modal component and the second stage reconstructs the load forecast based on the predicted value of the previous stage. This paper takes actual data from New South Wales, Australia, as an example, and the results show that the method proposed in this paper can build the feature set reliably and efficiently and has a higher accuracy than the conventional prediction model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An improved fuzzy time series algorithm based on clustering is designed in this paper. The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations. Firstly, the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data, and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division. On this basis, the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series. Secondly, a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load, which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations. Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are [−50, 20] and [−50, 30], while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are [−20, 15] and [−20, 25]. It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the randomness of weather conditions, the complexity of power demands and the nonlinearity of high-dimensional data, traditional regression analysis, and time series forecasting methods can no longer meet the current requirements of high-precision wind power load forecasting. Therefore, it is necessary to use an accurate short-term load forecasting method for power grid dispatching and planning. Taking the onshore wind power load data of Valencia, Spain (from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018), as the research object, this paper proposes a hybrid model of bidirectional gated recurrent units and squeeze-and-excitation networks (BiGRU-SENet) based on an attention mechanism, which is good at handling the nonlinearity of high-dimensional time series data, to predict short-term power loads. The results showed that (1) the attention mechanism could significantly improve the predictive performance of BiGRU by weighting the input of different time steps. (2) The GRU-CNN was more suitable for short-term load forecasting than CNN-GRU, which could make full use of time series information and not lose the key information at the beginning. (3) SENet enabled CNN to perform feature-wise recalibration, further focusing on effective features. (4) Compared with the second-best model (BiGRU-Attention-CNN), BiGRU-Attention-SENet was 12.849% and 3.096% lower in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. In terms of computational overheads, BiGRU-Attention-SENet achieved greater improvement in prediction accuracy by adding relatively fewer computational overheads (the parameters increased by 0.338%, and the FLOPs increased by 0.621%). (5) Through fine tuning, the pre-trained model achieved almost the same accuracy as the no pre-trained one in a shorter time, which proved that BiGRU-Attention-SENet had strong generalization ability. The hybrid model proposed in this paper has application prospects in power load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to changes in urban residents' consumption habits and lifestyles, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become increasingly important. To address this issue, this paper proposes a forecasting model that combines Ensemble Learning (EL), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Transformer, and LSTM. First, XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM are used as base learners in the ensemble learning framework, with the predictions generated by the ensemble model integrated into the original dataset. Next, the VMD method is employed to decompose the natural gas load sequence into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), effectively extracting the inherent features of the natural gas load sequence. Finally, the data is input into the Transformer-ResLSTM network for prediction. This network replaces the original Transformer decoder structure with an LSTM network and fully connected layers, creating a new decoder structure. Additionally, a residual connection mechanism is introduced in both the encoder of the Transformer network and the new decoder structure. Experimental results show that, compared to traditional models such as ARIMA, Transformer, GRU, and LSTM, the proposed hybrid model significantly improves prediction accuracy, reducing MSE by 92–98% and MAE by 74–83%. In summary, this method demonstrates significant potential and practical value in enhancing the accuracy of natural gas load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power system inertia is declining and is increasingly variable and uncertain in regions where the penetration of non-synchronous generation and interconnectors is growing. This presents a challenge to power system operators who must take appropriate actions to ensure the stability and security of power systems relying on short-term forecasts of the system’s inertial response. Existing models to forecast inertia fail to quantify uncertainty, which may prevent their utilization given the risk aversion of the system operators when handling stability issues. This paper is the first to develop a model to produce calibrated, data-driven probabilistic forecasts of the inertia contribution of transmission-connected synchronous generators. The model provides a necessary tool for system operators to quantify forecast uncertainty, allowing them to manage the risk of frequency instability cost-effectively. The paper demonstrates that the assumption of a Gaussian distribution of uncertainty applied in existing models is not acceptable to accurately forecast the inertial response and provides a satisfactory forecast model by combining non-parametric density forecasting with parametric tail distributions. Moreover, the paper shows that satisfactory predictive performance can only be achieved by adopting a rolling horizon forecast approach to deal with the rapidly changing characteristics of the inertial response in power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many influencing factors present in different situations of power load. There is also a strong imbalance in the number of load samples. In addition to examining the problem of low training efficiency of existing algorithms, this paper proposes a short-term power load prediction method based on feature selection and error compensation under imbalanced samples. After clustering the load data, we expand some sample data to balance the sample categories and input the load data and filtered feature sequences into the improved GRU for prediction. At the same time, the errors generated during the training process are used as training data. An error correction model is constructed and trained, and the results are used for error compensation to further improve prediction accuracy. The experimental results show that the overall prediction accuracy of the model has increased by 80.24%. After expanding a few samples, the prediction accuracy of the region where the samples are located increased by 59.41%. Meanwhile, due to the improvement of the algorithms, the running time was reduced by approximately 14.92%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate power load forecasting can facilitate effective distribution of power and avoid wasting power so as to reduce costs. Power load is affected by many factors, so accurate forecasting is more difficult, and the current methods are mostly aimed at short-term power load forecasting problems. There is no good method for long-term power load forecasting problems. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes an LSTM-Informer model based on ensemble learning to solve the long-term load forecasting problem. The bottom layer of the model uses the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model as a learner to capture the short-term time correlation of power load, and the top layer uses the Informer model to solve the long-term dependence problem of power load forecasting. In this way, the LSTM-Informer model can not only capture short-term time correlation but can also accurately predict long-term power load. In this paper, a one-year dataset of the distribution network in the city of Tetouan in northern Morocco was used for experiments, and the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used as evaluation criteria. The long-term prediction of this model is 0.58 and 0.38 higher than that of the lstm model based on MSE and MAE. The experimental results show that the LSTM-Informer model based on ensemble learning has more advantages in long-term power load forecasting than the advanced baseline method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Main Forecasting Problems There are different types of forecasting problems that can arise in electricity demand forecasting, including: Very short-term forecasting, which refers to the prediction of electricity demand or production for a time horizon from seconds to a few hours ahead. The applications of long-term forecasts of wind farm power generation are, e.g., maintenance scheduling, wind farm design, electricity market restructuring, and optimization of operating costs. A modern power system is a complex network of interconnected components, such as generators, transmission lines, and distribution subsystems, that are designed to provide electricity to consumers in an efficient and reliable manner. A power system requires forecasts that predict the future electricity demand, the power generation from RESs, and meteorological data that are important regarding consumer demand and the level of generation from RESs. [Extracted from the article]

In order to defraud state subsidies, some unscrupulous users use improper means to steal photovoltaic (PV) power. This behavior brings potential safety hazards to photovoltaic grid-connected operations. In this paper, a photovoltaic power-stealing identification method based on similar-day clustering and interval prediction of the quantile regression model for long short-term memory neural network (QRLSTM) is proposed. First, photovoltaic data are clustered into three similar days by the similar-day clustering according to weather conditions. Second, compared with the quantile regression neural network (QRNN) prediction method, the good prediction performance of the QRLSTM method is illustrated. Third, using the prediction intervals with different confidence levels on three similar days, according to the time scale (short-term, medium-term and long-term) combined with different electricity-stealing judgment indicators, a three-layer photovoltaic power-stealing screening framework is constructed, and the degree of user power stealing is qualitatively analyzed. Last, the power generation data of eight photovoltaic users in a certain region of northwest China and the data of four groups of artificially constructed power-stealing users are used as an example for simulation. The simulation results prove the feasibility of the proposed method in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power generation forecasts for wind farms, especially with a short-term horizon, have been extensively researched due to the growing share of wind farms in total power generation. Detailed forecasts are necessary for the optimization of power systems of various sizes. This review and analytical paper is largely focused on a statistical analysis of forecasting errors based on more than one hundred papers on wind generation forecasts. Factors affecting the magnitude of forecasting errors are presented and discussed. Normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) and normalized mean absolute error (nMAE) have been selected as the main error metrics considered here. A new and unique error dispersion factor (EDF) is proposed, being the ratio of nRMSE to nMAE. The variability of EDF depending on selected factors (size of wind farm, forecasting horizons, and class of forecasting method) has been examined. This is unique and original research, a novelty in studies on errors of power generation forecasts in wind farms. In addition, extensive quantitative and qualitative analyses have been conducted to assess the magnitude of forecasting error depending on selected factors (such as forecasting horizon, wind farm size, and a class of the forecasting method). Based on these analyses and a review of more than one hundred papers, a unique set of recommendations on the preferred content of papers addressing wind farm generation forecasts has been developed. These recommendations would make it possible to conduct very precise benchmarking meta-analyses of forecasting studies described in research papers and to develop valuable general conclusions concerning the analyzed phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the impact of volatility on photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting and achieve improved forecasting accuracy, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of PV power outputs under typical weather conditions. The trend of PV power generation and the similarity between simultaneous outputs are found, and a hybrid prediction model based on feature matching, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed. In this paper, correlation analysis is used to verify the trend of PV power generation; the similarity between forecasting days and historical meteorological data is calculated through grey relation analysis; and similar generated PV power levels are searched for phase feature matching. The input time series is decomposed by singular spectrum analysis; the trend component, oscillation component and noise component are extracted; and principal component analysis and reconstruction are carried out on each component. Then, an LSTM network prediction model is established for the reconstructed subsequences, and the external feature input is controlled to compare the obtained prediction results. Finally, the model performance is evaluated through the data of a PV power plant in a certain area. The experimental results prove that the SSA-LSTM model has the best prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning models in recent times have shown promising results for solar energy forecasting. Solar energy depends heavily on local weather conditions, and as a result, typically hundreds of models are built, which need site and season-specific training. The model maintenance and management also become a tedious job with such a large number of models. Here, we are motivated to use transfer learning to accommodate local variations in the solar pattern over the available global pattern. It may also be noted that apparently transfer learning has been rarely/never used for solar forecasting. In this paper, we have proposed a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BGRU) based model, which employs transfer learning for short-term solar energy forecasting. The said model yields better forecasting accuracy compared to site-specific models with a lower variance. It also takes 39.6% less parameters and 76.1% reduced time for training. The current literature suggests that selection of base scenario for transfer learning is an open problem and in this paper, we have also proposed an intuitive strategy for the same. The effectiveness of the same is established through empirical study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of re‐electrification, traditional load forecasting faces a significant increase of influencing factors. Existing literature focuses on examining the influencing factors related to load profiles in order to improve the prediction accuracy. However, a large number of redundant features may lead to the overfitting of the forecasting engine. To enhance the performance of extreme learning machine (ELM) under massive data scale, this paper presents a kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) based method which can be used for short‐term load prediction. First, a feature dimensionality reduction is performed using a kernelized principal component analysis, which aims to eliminate redundant input vectors. Then, the hyperparameters of KELM are optimized to improve the prediction accuracy and generalization. Case studies based on a province‐level power system in China demonstrate that the presented method can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting by 3.14% in contrast to traditional ELM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial buildings are consuming an increasing amount of energy, and accurate load demand forecasting is critical for the reliable operation of power systems and the efficient use of resources. Therefore, in this paper, a short‐term commercial load forecasting model based on tunicate swarm algorithm (TSA) combined with an extreme learning machine (ELM) under peak‐valley features is proposed as a research case for a shopping mall in Romania. This paper's overall structure is divided into two steps. In the first step, the 24‐h day is divided into six periods by analyzing the daily load characteristics of the training set, and the peak and valley loads are obtained. The ELM optimized by TSA (TSA‐ELM) algorithm is then used to forecast the peak and valley values of the test set one day ahead. In the second step, the actual load, peak, and valley for the previous week of historical load are chosen using the maximum information coefficient (MIC). Following that, the MIC ≥ 0.8 features are added to the TSA‐ELM to achieve short‐term commercial electricity load forecasting. The results show that the PV (Peak & Valley)‐TSA‐ELM model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with other models. Taking ELM as an example, compared with the traditional ELM, the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error of PV‐TSA‐ELM are reduced by 20.59%, 20.13%, and 19.19% on average in the three commercial data sets. The proposed model is validated with an industrial data set, and ideal results are obtained, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient resource management related to both economic and environmental benefits. Forecasting can be implemented through statistical analysis of historical data, application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms, physical models, and more, and focuses on two directions: the required load for a specific area, e.g., a city, and the required load for a building. Building power forecasting is challenging due to the frequent fluctuation of the required electricity and the complexity and alterability of each building's energy behavior. This paper focuses on the application of Deep Learning (DL) methods to accurately predict building (residential, commercial, or multiple) power consumption, by utilizing the available historical big data. Research findings are compared to state-of-the-art statistical models and AI methods of the literature to comparatively evaluate their efficiency and justify their future application. The aim of this work is to review up-to-date proposed DL approaches, to highlight the current research status, and to point out emerging challenges and future potential directions. Research revealed a higher interest in residential building load forecasting covering 47.5% of the related literature from 2016 up to date, focusing on short-term forecasting horizon in 55% of the referenced papers. The latter was attributed to the lack of available public datasets for experimentation in different building types, since it was found that in the 48.2% of the related literature, the same historical data regarding residential buildings load consumption was used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the problem that power load data are stochastic and that it is difficult to obtain accurate forecasting results by a single algorithm, in this paper, a combined forecasting method for short-term power load was proposed based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN)-sample entropy (SE), the BP neural network (BPNN), and the Transformer model. Firstly, the power load data were decomposed into several power load subsequences with obvious complexity differences by using the CEEMDAN-SE. Then, BPNN and Transformer model were used to forecast the subsequences with low complexity and the subsequences with high complexity, respectively. Finally, the forecasting results of each subsequence were superimposed to obtain the final forecasting result. The simulation was taken from our proposed model and six forecasting models by using the load dataset from a certain area of Spain. The results showed that the MAPE of our proposed CEEMDAN-SE-BPNN-Transformer model was 1.1317%, while the RMSE was 304.40, which was better than the selected six forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The purpose of the paper is to propose different arrangements of neural networks for short-time 24-h load forecasting in Power Systems. Methods: The study discusses and compares different techniques of data processing, applying the feedforward and recurrent neural structures. They include such networks as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, support vector machine, self-organizing Kohonen networks, deep autoencoder, and recurrent deep LSTM structures. The important point in getting high-quality results is the composition of many solutions in the common ensemble and their fusion to create the final forecast of time series. The paper considers and compares different methods of fusing the individual results into the final forecast, including the averaging, application of independent component analysis, dynamic integration, and wavelet transformation. Results: The numerical experiments have shown a high advantage of using many individual predictors integrated into the ensemble which are responsible for the final forecast. Especially efficient is the application of non-standard wavelet application in the formation of an ensemble, as well as the use of LSTM as the basic prediction unit. The novelty of the paper is the critical comparative analysis of the time series prediction methods applied for load forecasting in the power system. The presented approach may be useful for the users involved in power system operation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for forecasting the electrical load. We found that we can accurately predict the electrical load of the city for the next day with 98% accuracy. The accuracy index is the evaluation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The main contributions are: (1) Introducing a new fuzzy neural network. (2) Improving and increasing the accuracy of forecasting using the proposed fuzzy neural network. (3) Taking data from a specific area (Kermanshah City) and forecasting the electrical load for that area. (4) The ability to enter new data without calculations from the beginning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In accordance with the topographic features and other relevant factors, data affecting wind power generation in engineering practice may be difficult to obtain, and three short-term wind power forecasting methods are proposed based on incomplete data. Most wind power forecasting studies are based on wind speed data, but wind power forecasting needs more influential factors in addition to wind speed data, and it is difficult to obtain these data in actual production and life. Therefore, this paper proposes the wind power forecasting under the condition of incomplete data. First, this paper makes theoretical analysis on multi-state space Markov chain wind power forecasting, backpropagation (BP) neural network wind power forecasting, and genetic algorithm (GA)-BP neural network wind power forecasting, and the corresponding wind power forecasting models are constructed. Second, with the actually measured data of a wind farm in the Heilongjiang province as the research object, the historical data are preprocessed first and then imported into three wind power forecasting models for simulation, and the curves of relative error and absolute error of total wind power forecasting in this area are obtained. Finally, the simulation results of three methods based on incomplete data are analyzed and evaluated. The results show that under the condition of incomplete data, the maximum error of the GA-BP neural network wind power forecasting model improved by the genetic algorithm is reduced from 6.8% to 1.6%, and the forecasting accuracy is greatly improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is critical for the energy industry. Accurate predictions of future electricity demand are necessary to ensure power systems' reliable and efficient operation. Various STLF models have been proposed in recent years, each with strengths and weaknesses. This paper comprehensively reviews some STLF models, including time series, artificial neural networks (ANNs), regression-based, and hybrid models. It first introduces the fundamental concepts and challenges of STLF, then discusses each model class's main features and assumptions. The paper compares the models in terms of their accuracy, robustness, computational efficiency, scalability, and adaptability and identifies each approach's advantages and limitations. Although this study suggests that ANNs and hybrid models may be the most promising ways to achieve accurate and reliable STLF, additional research is required to handle multiple input features, manage massive data sets, and adjust to shifting energy conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate medium- and long-term power load forecasting is of great significance for the scientific planning and safe operation of power systems. Monthly power load has multiscale time series correlation and seasonality. The existing models face the problems of insufficient feature extraction and a large volume of prediction models constructed according to seasons. Therefore, a hybrid feature pyramid CNN-LSTM model with seasonal inflection month correction for medium- and long-term power load forecasting is proposed. The model is constructed based on linear and nonlinear combination forecasting. With the aim to address the insufficient extraction of multiscale temporal correlation in load, a time series feature pyramid structure based on causal dilated convolution is proposed, and the accuracy of the model is improved by feature extraction and fusion of different scales. For the problem that the model volume of seasonal prediction is too large, a seasonal inflection monthly load correction strategy is proposed to construct a unified model to predict and correct the monthly load of the seasonal change inflection point, so as to improve the model's ability to deal with seasonality. The model proposed in this paper is verified on the actual power data in Shaoxing City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart grid environment. In this way, it firstly discusses the common methods employed to predict the distribution of variables. Then, it reviews how the recent literature used these forecasting methods and for which uncertain parameters they wanted to obtain distributions. Unlike the existing reviews, this paper assesses several uncertain parameters for which probabilistic forecasting models have been developed. In the next stage, this paper provides an overview related to scenario generation of uncertain parameters using their distributions and how these scenarios are adopted for optimal decision-making. In this regard, this paper discusses three types of optimization problems aiming to capture uncertainties and reviews the related papers. Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, forecasting has received increasing attention since it provides an important basis for the effective operation of power systems. In this paper, a hybrid method, composed of kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), tree seed algorithm based on Lévy flight (LTSA) and extreme learning machine (ELM), is proposed for short-term load forecasting. Specifically, the randomly generated weights and biases of ELM have a significant impact on the stability of prediction results. Therefore, in order to solve this problem, LTSA is utilized to obtain the optimal parameters before the prediction process is executed by ELM, which is called LTSA-ELM. Meanwhile, the input data is extracted by KPCA considering the sparseness of the electric load data and used as the input of LTSA-ELM model. The proposed method is tested on the data from European network on intelligent technologies (EUNITE) and experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approaches compared to the other methods involved in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the electrical load is essential in power system design and growth. It is critical from both a technical and a financial standpoint as it improves the power system performance, reliability, safety, and stability as well as lowers operating costs. The main aim of this paper is to make forecasting models to accurately estimate the electrical load based on the measurements of current electrical loads of the electricity company. The importance of having forecasting models is in predicting the future electrical loads, which will lead to reducing costs and resources, as well as better electric load distribution for electric companies. In this paper, deep learning algorithms are used to forecast the electrical loads; namely: (1) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), (2) Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and (3) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The models were tested, and the GRU model achieved the best performance in terms of accuracy and the lowest error. Results show that the GRU model achieved an R-squared of 90.228%, Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.00215, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.03266. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity load prediction is an essential tool for power system planning, operation and management. The critical information it provides can be used by energy providers to maximise power system operation efficiency and minimise system operation costs. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are two suitable methods that have been successfully used for analysing time series problems. In this paper, the two algorithms are explored further for load prediction; two load prediction algorithms are developed and verified by using the half-hourly load data from the University of Warwick campus energy centre with four different prediction time horizons. The novelty lies in comparing and analysing the prediction accuracy of two intelligent algorithms with multiple time scales and in exploring better scenarios for their prediction applications. High-resolution load forecasting over a long range of time is also conducted in this paper. The MAPE values for the LSTM are 2.501%, 3.577%, 25.073% and 69.947% for four prediction time horizons delineated. For the SVM, the MAPE values are 2.531%, 5.039%, 7.819% and 10.841%, respectively. It is found that both methods are suitable for shorter time horizon predictions. The results show that LSTM is more capable of ultra-short and short-term forecasting, while SVM has a higher prediction accuracy in medium-term and long-term forecasts. Further investigation is performed via blind tests and the test results are consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittency in the grid creates operational issues for power system operators (PSO). One such intermittent parameter is load. Accurate prediction of the load is the key to proper planning of the power system. This paper uses regression analyses for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Assumed load data are first analyzed and outliers are identified and treated. The cleaned data are fed to regression methods involving Linear Regression, Decision Trees (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ensemble, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Neural Networks. The best method is identified based on statistical analyses using parameters such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), R 2 , and Prediction Speed. The best method is further optimized with the objective of reducing MSE by tuning hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization, Grid Search, and Random Search. The algorithms are implemented in Python and Matlab Platforms. It is observed that the best methods obtained for regression analysis and hyperparameter tuning for an assumed data set are Decision Trees and Grid Search, respectively. It is also observed that, due to hyperparameter tuning, the MSE is reduced by 12.98%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily load forecasting is the basis of the economic and safe operation of a power grid. Accurate prediction results can improve the matching of microgrid energy storage capacity allocation. With the popularization of smart meters, the interaction between residential electricity demand and sources and networks is increasing, and massive data are generated at the same time. Previous forecasting methods suffer from poor targeting and high noise. They cannot make full use of the important information of the load data. This paper proposes a new framework for daily load forecasting of group residents. Firstly, we use the singular value decomposition to address the problem of high dimensions of residential electricity data. Meanwhile, we apply a K-Shape-based group residential load clustering method to obtain the typical residential load data. Secondly, we introduce an empirical mode decomposition method to address the problem of high noise of residential load data. Finally, we propose a Bi-LSTM-Attention model for residential daily load forecasting. This method can make full use of the contextual information and the important information of the daily load of group residents. The experiments conducted on a real data set of a power grid show that our method achieves excellent improvements on five prediction error indicators, such as MAPE, which are significantly smaller than the compared baseline methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a Median Grid Search algorithm based on the median values is proposed to develop a more accurate algorithm used to investigate the optimal hyperparameter of the SVR model for load forecasting. In addition, the methodology to benchmark the proposed Grid Search and the conventional Grid Search is built and sufficiently utilized. The data gathered from the South Australia state, Australia and Ho Chi Minh City load demands are used in experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the conventional algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity load forecasting has seen increasing importance recently, especially with the effectiveness of deep learning methods growing. Improving the accuracy of electricity load forecasting is vital for public resources management departments. Traditional neural network methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) have been widely used in electricity load forecasting. However, LSTM and its variants are not sensitive to the dynamic change of inputs and miss the internal nonperiodic rules of series, due to their discrete observation interval. In this paper, a novel neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) method, which can be seen as a continuous version of residual network (ResNet), is applied to electricity load forecasting to learn dynamics of time series. We design three groups of models based on LSTM and BiLSTM and compare the accuracy between models using NODE and without NODE. The experimental results show that NODE can improve the prediction accuracy of LSTM and BiLSTM. It indicates that NODE is an effective approach to improving the accuracy of electricity load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development in economics and social society has led to rapid growth in electricity demand. Accurate residential electricity load forecasting is helpful for the transformation of residential energy consumption structure and can also curb global climate warming. This paper proposes a hybrid residential short-term load forecasting framework (DCNN-LSTM-AE-AM) based on deep learning, which combines dilated convolutional neural network (DCNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM), autoencoder (AE), and attention mechanism (AM) to improve the prediction results. First, we design a T-nearest neighbors (TNN) algorithm to preprocess the original data. Further, a DCNN is introduced to extract the long-term feature. Secondly, we combine the LSTM with the AE (LSTM-AE) to learn the sequence features hidden in the extracted features and decode them into output features. Finally, the AM is further introduced to extract and fuse the high-level stage features to achieve the prediction results. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that the proposed method is good at capturing the oscillation characteristics of low-load data and outperforms other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load forecasting is one of the most important and studied topics in modern power systems. Most of the existing research on day-ahead load forecasting try to build a good model to improve the forecasting accuracy. The forecasted load is then used as the input to generation scheduling with the ultimate goal of minimizing the cost of generation schedules. However, existing day-ahead load forecasting models do not consider this ultimate goal at the training/forecasting stage. This paper proposes a task-based day-ahead load forecasting model labeled as LfEdNet that combines two individual layers in one model, including a load forecasting layer based on deep neural network (Lf layer) and a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch (SED) layer (Ed layer). The training of LfEdNet aims to minimize the cost of the day-ahead SED in the Ed layer by updating the parameters of the Lf layer. Sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is used to solve the day-ahead SED in the Ed layer. The test results demonstrate that the forecasted results produced by LfEdNet can lead to lower cost of day-ahead SED at the expense of slight reduction in forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the improvement of penetration rate of wind power in the power system, its volatility and intermittence bring new problems to the power grid. The accurate forecasting of wind power is an effective way to alleviate the impact on the power grid. In this paper, a novel wind power forecasting method is proposed. Firstly, a wind power forecasting model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network is established to forecast the wind power according to the wind speed of numerical weather forecasting (NWF). Secondly, a wind power forecasting error time series model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is established to decrease the forecasting error. Finally, this paper uses the real data to simulate and verify the proposed method. Evaluating by the root mean square error (RMSE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), and Theil inequality coefficient (TIC), the simulation results show that the forecasting accuracy of the BiLSTM neural network model are 10.25%, 6.71% and 12.18% higher than LSTM model respectively. After correcting wind power forecasting error using the proposed time series model based on EMD, the accuracy of wind power forecasting is further improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traffic flow forecasting proposed for a series of problems, such as urban road congestion and unreasonable road planning, aims to build a new smart city, improve urban infrastructure, and alleviate road congestion. The problems encountered in traffic flow forecasting are also relatively difficult; the reason is that traffic flow forecasting is uncertain, dynamic, and nonlinear. It is challenging to build a reliable and safe model. Aiming at this complex and nonlinear traffic flow forecasting problem, this paper proposes a solution of an ABC-ELM model optimized by an artificial bee colony algorithm to solve the above problem. It uses the characteristics of the artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize the model so that the model can better and faster find the optimal solution in space. Moreover, it also uses the characteristics of the limit learning machine to quickly deal with this nonlinear specific problem. Experimental results on the Amsterdam road traffic flow dataset show that the traffic flow prediction model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy and is more sensitive to data changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term load forecasting can ensure the safe and stable operation of power grids, but the nonlinear load increases the complexity of forecasting. In order to solve the problem of modal aliasing in historical data, and fully explore the relationship between time series characteristics in load data, this paper proposes a gated cyclic network model (SSA–GRU) based on sparrow algorithm optimization. Firstly, the complementary sets and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are used to decompose the original data to obtain the characteristic components. The SSA–GRU combined model is used to predict the characteristic components, and finally obtain the prediction results, and complete the short-term load forecasting. Taking the real data of a company as an example, this paper compares the combined model CEEMD–SSA–GRU with EMD–SSA–GRU, SSA–GRU, and GRU models. Experimental results show that this model has better prediction effect than other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate power load forecasting is the key foundation and important premise of urban power system planning. Considering that urban power load demand is closely related to economic development and meteorological conditions, and with the application and promotion of various energy coupling equipment and the promotion of electric energy substitution policy, the relationship between gas load and power load demand is increasing. However, most of the existing load forecasting methods only consider a single economic factor or a single meteorological factor, and fail to combine the coupling and complementarity between loads. Based on this, this paper first analyzes the coupling characteristics between power load and urban economic, meteorological, and gas load with Copula theory; Secondly, the key parameters of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) are solved by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA), and the urban monthly power load forecasting model based on SSA-LSSVM is established; Finally, based on the macroeconomic data, meteorological observation data and monthly electrical load of a city in North China, the prediction model is verified. Through comparison with different prediction scenarios, it is confirmed that the built model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and has good application effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to improve the accuracy of medium and long-term load forecasting in the new normal economy, this paper combines the PSO-optimized twin support vector machine to build a medium and long-term load forecasting model under the background of the new normal economy. Moreover, this paper uses the algorithm to debug the filter and studies the accurate prediction of the fine model by the progressive spatial mapping algorithm and the processing of the data by the vector fitting algorithm. In addition, this paper combines the PSO algorithm to optimize the twin support vector machine, constructs the optimized algorithm according to the flow chart, and applies it to the medium and long-term load forecasting under the background of a new normal economy. The experimental results verify that the PSO-optimized twin support vector machine has a very good application effect in medium and long-term load forecasting under the background of the new normal economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite advancements in smart grid (SG) technology, effective load forecasting utilizing big data or large-scale datasets remains a complex task for energy management, planning, and control. The Saudi SGs, in alignment with the Saudi Vision 2030, have been envisioned as future electrical grids with a bidirectional flow of power and data. To that end, data analysis and predictive models can enhance Saudi SG planning and control via artificial intelligence (AI). Recently, many AI methods including deep learning (DL) algorithms for SG applications have been published in the literature and have shown superior time series predictions compared with conventional prediction models. Current load-prediction research for the Saudi grid focuses on identifying anticipated loads and consumptions, on utilizing limited historical data and the behavior of the load's consumption, and on conducting shallow forecasting models. However, little scientific proof on complex DL models or real-life application has been conducted by researchers; few articles have studied sophisticated large-scale prediction models for Saudi grids. This paper proposes hybrid DL methods to enhance the outcomes in Saudi SG load forecasting, to improve problem-relevant features, and to accurately predict complicated power consumption, with the goal of developing reliable forecasting models and of obtaining knowledge of the relationships between the various features and attributes in the Saudi SGs. The model in this paper utilizes a real dataset from the Jeddah and Medinah grids in Saudi Arabia for a full year, 2021, with a one-hour time resolution. A benchmark strategy using different conventional DL methods including artificial neural network, recurrent neural network (RNN), conventional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and different real datasets is used to verify the proposed models. The prediction results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid DL models, with CNN–GRU and CNN–RNN with NRMSE obtaining 1.4673% and 1.222% improvements, respectively, in load forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous increase in user-side flexible controllable resources connected into a distribution system, the components of electrical load become too diverse and difficult to be accuracy forecasted. A short-term load forecast method that integrates variational modal decomposition (VMD), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and time convolutional network (TCN) into a hybrid network is proposed in this paper. Firstly, original electrical load sequence data with noise are decomposed into intrinsic IMF components with different frequencies and amplitudes based on the VMD method. Secondly, a combined load forecasting method based on the GRU and TCN network is proposed for the high and low-frequency load subsequent signals, respectively. Finally, the high and low-frequency signals forecasting results of the GRU and TCN network are rebuilt for the final load forecasting. The experiment results based on actual operation data (data set 1) and simulation data (data set 2), which show that the proposed method can reduce the forecasting error by 36.20% and 10.8%, respectively, in comparison with VMD-GRU. The reliability and accuracy of the proposed method is verified through the comparison with other methods such as LSTM, Prophet and XG Boost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in the electricity demand pattern globally due to sudden extreme weather conditions or situations like COVID 19 pandemic has brought unanticipated challenges for the electric utilities and operators around the world. This work primarily deals with the issue of load forecasting during such type of high impact low frequency (HILF) events. In this paper, we propose a novel resilient short-term load forecasting model capable of producing good forecasting performance for normal as well as critical situations during the COVID 19 pandemic and will also be useful for load forecasting for other HILF situations like natural calamity effect on load demand of the power system. The proposed method uses a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) with an added training feature named resiliency factor to forecast load in both regular and special scenarios. The resiliency factor for any type of node in the distribution system is decided by the power utility using the historical data and declared in advance. The proposed model is tested using the smart metered data available from a real-life distribution grid of an academic cum residential campus. The model is giving satisfactory results for both normal as well as COVID scenario for the said network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of the power internet of things (IOT), load forecasting will play an important role the power system. It can optimize the power generation planning and improve the economical operation of power IOT. In this paper, a new loading forecasting algorithm for power IOT is proposed using training data dimension expansion and ensemble learning. In the offline phase, the obtained meteorological data and time information is normalized to remove the unit effect at first. Then, the Hampel filter is used to cope with the outliers of the meteorological data from sensors. Through the preprocessing, the fingerprint of the training data is constructed. Next, the matrix multiplication method is proposed to expand the dimension of training data fingerprint information. Finally, the ensemble learning combining multiple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are proposed to obtain multiple power load forecasting models and corresponding weight coefficients. In the online phase, the obtained meteorological data and time information are preprocessed to form the input of and power load forecasting models. The final power load forecasting is obtained by linear weighted sum method with intermediate forecasting result. In the proposed algorithm, more features of training data can be obtained by the data dimension expansion. Moreover, the ensemble learning using LSTM can make fully use of the timing sequence of training and improve the generalization performance of offline training. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed algorithm has better forecasting performance than existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the current difficulties and problems of short-term load forecasting (STLF), this paper proposes a combined forecasting method based on the improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA), with fused Cauchy mutation and opposition-based learning (OBL), to optimize the hyperparameters of the long- and short-term-memory (LSTM) network. For the sparrow-search algorithm (SSA), a Sin-chaotic-initialization population, with an infinite number of mapping folds, is first used to lay the foundation for global search. Secondly, the previous-generation global-optimal solution is introduced in the discoverer-location update way, to improve the adequacy of the global search, while adaptive weights are added to reconcile the ability of the local exploitation and global search of the algorithm as well as to hasten the speed of convergence. Then, fusing the Cauchy mutation arithmetic and the OBL strategy, a perturbation mutation is performed at the optimal solution position to generate a new solution, which, in turn, strengthens the ability of the algorithm to get rid of the local space. After that, the ISSA-LSTM forecasting model is constructed, and the example is verified based on the power load data of a region, while the experimental comparison with various algorithms is conducted, and the results confirm the superiority of the ISSA-LSTM model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential load forecasting plays an important role in management and planning of modern smart grids. Accurate residential load forecasting is needed in planning to keep demand and supply balanced. This paper presents a mid-term residential load forecasting method based on feature selection to solve the linear regression problem. In this way, for feature selection to perform the regression, the neighborhood component analysis method is used. For this purpose, an optimization problem is designed, and the problem is solved using the LBFGS algorithm. The AMPds2 dataset is used to implement the proposed method, and the results were compared with the results of the other six forecasting methods. Comparisons were made through mean squared error, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method for accurate residential load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity and uncertainty of the distribution system are increasing as the connection of distributed power sources using solar or wind energy is rapidly increasing, and digital loads are expanding. As these complexity and uncertainty keep increasing the investment cost for distribution facilities, optimal distribution planning becomes a matter of greater focus. This paper analyzed the existing mid-to-long-term load forecasting method for KEPCO's distribution planning and proposed a mid- to long-term load forecasting method based on ensemble learning. After selecting optimal input variables required for the load forecasting model through correlation analysis, individual forecasting models were selected, which enabled the derivation of the optimal combination of ensemble load forecast models. This paper additionally offered an improved load forecasting model that considers the characteristics of each distribution line for enhancing the mid- to long-term distribution line load forecasting process for distribution planning. The study verified the performance of the proposed method by comparing forecasting values with actual values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in renewable generation make accurate load forecast essential for reliable power system operation. This paper considers energy imbalance market (EIM), where market players are allowed to procure energy ahead of time and trade the mismatch due to forecast error and strategic behaviors. The ISO sets the trading prices according to the market conditions, and pursues various system-level objectives. We first identify the power-law relationship between data volume and forecast accuracy, which enables the formulation of forecast cost model. Then, we cast the interactions in the EIM in the Stackelberg game framework with the ISO acting as the leader. We offer explicit subgame perfect equilibrium among the players in EIM, and derive the sufficient condition for the existence of unique equilibrium. Then, we show that this equilibrium, if exists, supports the maximal social welfare and under certain conditions, minimizes the total mismatch. We further examine the local and global impacts of the forecast errors under mild conditions, together with robustness analysis. Such analysis provides mechanism design guidelines for the ISO to enable the data sharing and forecast method sharing among market players in the EIM. Numerical studies further examine the effectiveness, robustness and sensitivity of the subgame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work proposed an integrated model combining bagging and stacking considering the weight coefficient for short-time traffic-flow prediction, which incorporates vacation and peak time features, as well as occupancy and speed information, in order to improve prediction accuracy and accomplish deeper traffic flow data feature mining. To address the limitations of a single prediction model in traffic forecasting, a stacking model with ridge regression as the meta-learner is first established, then the stacking model is optimized from the perspective of the learner using the bagging model, and lastly the optimized learner is embedded into the stacking model as the new base learner to obtain the Ba-Stacking model. Finally, to address the Ba-Stacking model's shortcomings in terms of low base learner utilization, the information structure of the base learners is modified by weighting the error coefficients while taking into account the model's external features, resulting in a DW-Ba-Stacking model that can change the weights of the base learners to adjust the feature distribution and thus improve utilization. Using 76,896 data from the I5NB highway as the empirical study object, the DW-Ba-Stacking model is compared and assessed with the traditional model in this paper. The empirical results show that the DW-Ba-Stacking model has the highest prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the model is successful in predicting short-term traffic flows and can effectively solve traffic-congestion problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]