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Competing Interests: Disclosure of interest: The authors completed the ICMJE Disclosure of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and declare no conflicts of interest.

Background: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection., Methods: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11., Findings: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective., Interpretation: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background Vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a cost-effective mitigation strategy against the pandemic. As the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more available, low uptake is now a global threat and understanding the underpinnings in local contexts is a priority for intervention development. We aimed to evaluate behavioural determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance that could inform engagement strategies to improve vaccine uptake in Makoko, an urban slum in Lagos, Nigeria. Methods A population-based case–control study utilized the barrier analysis (BA) approach to evaluate the beliefs and behaviours of 45 'doers' and 45 'non-doers'. The standardized BA tabulation sheet was used to assess differences in the proportions between the two groups to identify significant factors that could be addressed through a behaviour change strategy. Results Perceived social norms (family, friend, healthcare workers) that approve the vaccine and expected vaccine protection against diseases among doers were determinants of behaviour. Perceived poor accessibility, safety concerns, lack of trust, low vaccine efficacy and low susceptibility to the infection were the most important determinants of behaviour among non-doers. Conclusions Measures to improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in Makoko should include improvement in accessibility and exposing myths and misinformation through clear, concise and evidence-based community education delivered by trusted persons such as healthcare workers and religious leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The burden of severe Covid-19 has been relatively low in sib-Saharan Africa compared to Europe and the Americas. However, SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence data has demonstrated that there has been more widespread transmission than can be deduced from reported cases. This could be attributed to under reporting due to low testing capacity or high numbers of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in communities. Recent data indicates that prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure is protective against reinfection and that vaccination of previously SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals induces robust cross-reactive antibody responses. Considering these data, calls for a need for a re-think of the COVID-19 vaccination strategy in sub-Saharan African settings with high SARSCoV-2 population exposure but limited available vaccine doses. A potential recommendation would be to prioritize rapid and widespread vaccination of the first dose, while waiting for more vaccines to become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]