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As a consequence of global climate change, sea level rise (SLR) presents notable risks to both urban and natural areas located near coastlines. For developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to these risks, it is essential to evaluate the potential impacts of SLR in coastal areas. While substantial research has been conducted on mapping the broad-scale impacts of SLR based on scenarios of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL), consideration of regional scenarios, systematic classification, and distinct stages of SLR have been largely overlooked. This gap is significant because SLR impacts vary by region and by the level of SLR, so adaptations, planning, and decision-making must be adapted to local conditions. This paper aims to precisely identify the landscape and urban morphology changes caused by the impact of SLR for each foot of elevation increase based on remote sensing technologies, focusing on St. Johns County, Florida, and Chatham County, Georgia. These two counties are both situated along the southeastern coastline of the United States but with completely different urban forms due to distinct historical and cultural developments. Regional forecasting SLR scenarios covering the period from 2020 to 2100 were utilized to assess the landscape transformation and urban changes, incorporating selected landscape and urban metrics to calculate quantitative data for facilitating comparative analyses. This study investigated gradual alterations in urban morphology and green infrastructure both individually and in combination with the effect on wetlands due to SLR. The mapping outcomes of this research were generated by employing comprehensive remote sensing data. The findings of this research indicated that, when the sea level rose to 3 feet, the wetlands would experience notable alterations, and the level of fragmentation in urban built areas would progressively increase, causing most of the metric data to exhibit a pronounced decline or increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sub-tropical, flat, peninsular region of Florida is subject to a unique climate with extreme weather events that impact agriculture, public health, and management of natural resources. Meteorological data at high temporal resolutions especially in tropical latitudes are essential to understand diurnal and semi-diurnal variations of climate, which are considered as the fundamental modes of climate variations of our Earth system. However, many meteorological datasets contain gaps that limit their use for validation of models and further detailed observational analysis. The objective of this paper is to apply a set of data gap filling strategies to develop a gap-free dataset with 15-minute observations for the sub-tropical region of Florida. Using data from the Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN), methods of linear interpolation, trend continuation, reference to external sources, and nearest station substitution were applied to fill the data gaps depending on the extent of the gap. The outcome of this study provides continuous, publicly accessible surface meteorological observations for 30 FAWN stations at 15-minute intervals for years 2005–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical consequence of climate change, posing significant threats to coastal regions worldwide. Accurate and efficient assessment of potential inundation areas is crucial for effective coastal planning and adaptation strategies. This study aimed to explore the utility of free and open-source software for geospatial (FOSS4G) tools for mapping SLR inundation, providing cost-effective solutions that are accessible to researchers and policymakers. We employed a combination of geospatial data, including high-resolution elevation models, tidal data, and projected SLR scenarios. Utilizing widely available FOSS4G tools, like QGIS, GDAL/OGR, and GRASS GIS, we developed an integrated workflow to map inundation extents, using a passive bathtub approach for various SLR scenarios. We demonstrate the approach through a case study in Virginia Key, Florida, however, the methodology can be replicated in any area where the input datasets are available. This paper demonstrates that FOSS4G tools offer a reliable and accessible means to map SLR inundation, empowering stakeholders to assess coastal vulnerabilities and to devise sustainable adaptation measures. The open-source approach facilitates collaboration and reproducibility, fostering a comprehensive understanding of the potential impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews some of the key influences that wetlands have had on the development of human society together with the history of wetland use, conservation and management in the context of changing human interactions from prehistoric to modern times. It documents the origins of the Ramsar Convention and the changes in the criteria for defining wetlands of international importance from an emphasis on migratory birds to those of wider functional importance contributing to community well-being. This led to a significant increase in the number of signatories from developing countries The change in scientific emphasis from ecology to ecosystems (and ecosystem services) is identified as a key element of the wetland paradigm shift, which has occurred in the last half century and renewed the recognition of the importance of the natural capital of wetlands. It represents a change in research agenda from what wetlands are to what wetlands do. Modification of the Ramsar wise use concept is documented, and evolution of wetland assessment methods is traced in relation to policy development and the need for a strong science evidence base to improve decision-making connected with wetland conservation and management. The author also addresses the significance of wetland economic valuation and biodiversity issues, transboundary water management with particular reference to the marshlands of Mesopotamia (southern Iraq), conflict, and human livelihood issues. Examples are given of the drive towards wetland restoration in different countries, and at different scales, with awareness of the extraordinarily high costs associated with major schemes such as the Florida Everglades which may prohibit replication in other parts of the world. Adoption of the Ecosystem Approach and the "Wholescapes" concept are seen as important in the future management of wetland ecosystems. The wide-ranging interactions within the structure of a new wetland paradigm are summarized diagrammatically. An examination of current societal priorities and challenges resulting from the nexus of issues arising from food production, energy, water, and environmental change and health suggests both significant threats to wetlands, but also some opportunities for these ecosystems to play a part in sustainable solutions contributing to human well-being. The paper concludes with an endorsement of a new World Charter for wetlands but emphasizes the vital importance of partnership working and the key engagement of local communities to make any new initiative for enhanced protection and management of wetlands to work on the ground. Key challenges facing wetland science are identified, but it is the realization that healthy wetland ecosystems are a significant contributor to human and societal well-being that underpins the paradigm shift in research, management and policy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unnatural disasters, such as floods and wildfires, are making many areas difficult to inhabit. For relocation to unfold in a safer and more equitable way, it must be done in a manner that (1) aligns with community values in each locality, (2) navigates legal barriers to managed retreat, and (3) creates blue-sky funding for adaptation, including managed retreat planning and implementation. This paper argues that developers continuing to build in climate vulnerable areas could and should help cover the risk of their actions. Part I lays out the legal importance of planning for retreat, as well as the need for initial funding for community-level planning and experienced personnel. Few scholars have explored options for municipalities to fund difficult conversations about and initial steps towards managing retreat. Thus, Part II explores how community benefit agreements between communities and developers in climate-vulnerable areas could play a role in bridging the gap between research and implementation. Part II also introduces the idea of a climate resilience development fee, which could provide the needed blue-sky funding to implement managed retreat. Part III analyzes the validity of a climate resilience impact fee in California and Florida, two states in which the consequences of climate change are severe enough for communities to begin to consider managed retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the consequences of climate change have rapidly necessitated local government action to mitigate and adapt to rising sea levels, increased storm frequency, and higher temperatures. Acknowledgement of underlying climate issues, however, varies widely across regions and towns. Using critical discourse analysis (CDA), this paper evaluates the climate change acknowledgment of five municipality sustainability action plans (SAP) in coastal Florida and the broader implications for sustainable development. Public pressure, environmental champions, and recent storm events causing infrastructure damage were identified as key factors underpinning coastal climate change acknowledgement. Notably, the plans that admitted the anthropogenic causes of climate change were more optimistic and action focused. By emphasizing local mitigation efforts and opportunities, they were more empowering than those that treated climate threats as inevitable external circumstances. Anthropogenic climate change acknowledgment is thus a powerful tool for local governments to catalyze action when developing their sustainability goals and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the earth's climate changes, the ability of breeders to select for traits within forage species that impart adaptability to these changes will be critical for the maintenance of grassland agricultural systems. Temperate ‐ tropical climate transition zones (between 27 and 31° N and S latitude) have proven to be ideal zones for breeding species with variable climate adaptation. Programs located in these regions have the advantage of exposure to alternating extreme warm and cold temperatures, drought and flood conditions, and a multitude of biotic pests including fungi, viruses, insects and nematodes. In this paper we will present examples of how forage breeding programs in north‐central Florida have capitalized on these distinct advantages for selection of cultivars with resiliency to changing climate variables. Breeding programs in red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) will be discussed as examples for moving cool season species into warmer climates. Species attributes that contribute to climate resiliency will be identified and described. The ability to identify small changes in genetic photoperiod responses in these regions, are illustrated as an advantage when the objective is development of earlier or later maturity. Transition zones also provide suitable environments for biotic stresses, from both tropical and temperate areas, including fungal diseases, nematodes, and insects, offering desirable field environments for screening and genetic improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the escalation of crises related to a car-dependent system – global warming, habitat fragmentation, and the continued depletion of nonrenewable resources – the governing assumptions behind automobility remain unchanged. In this paper, we argue the endurance and continued expansion of a transportation regime centered on automobility in the US represents a zombie policy formation, simultaneously reliant on and consolidated by crises. Examining governance of the proposed Osceola Parkway Extension in Central Florida, we unpack the rationalities governing expressway development and the connection between road infrastructure and continued suburban development. Even as environmental crises are articulated in US policy, the focus on alleviating crises of congestion continues to propel automobility forward. However, it is not functioning as it did in an earlier life. Once lauded as a sign of modernity, automobility is now cynically advanced to perpetuate road construction and suburban developments. Expressway authorities invoke environmental crises and employ a discourse of sustainability to justify road infrastructure expansion as necessary. Thus, expressways are posed as the solution to the crises that automobility causes. We argue this contradictory governance paradigm, which ostensibly should be dead but continues to move forward, represents a zombie automobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Resilience Education and Action for Dedicate Youth (Climate READY) program, developed by the Florida Atlantic University Pine Jog Environmental Education Center (FAU Pine Jog) and funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Literacy Program, built climate literacy and community resilience through a three-semester dual enrollment program (NOAA-SEC-OED-2020-2006190). Most student participants (~80 %) were from Title-1, high schools in low socio-economic communities vulnerable to extreme weather and environmental hazards in Palm Beach County, Florida. The main objectives were to increase knowledge of South Florida's changing climate systems, teach and promote environmentally responsible behavior that results in the stewardship of healthy ecosystems and a reduction in carbon consumption to mitigate future environmental risks, and empower students to act as agents of change within the community by teaching community members about local climate impacts and resilience strategies for extreme weather events. Students in the Climate READY Ambassador Institute (Summer Semester 1) built climate knowledge, explored NOAA technology, engaged with scientists and resilience experts, developed communication and advocacy skills, and learned about local resilience solutions. An Afterschool Mentorship (Fall Semester 2) component paired new Climate READY Ambassadors with fourth- and fifth- grade afterschool students to build community resilience awareness through the creation of storybooks. Lastly, Community Outreach (Spring Semester 3) provided ways to share local resilience strategies at public events and promoted civic engagement in climate solutions. Data were collected from students in the form of pre- and post-assessment questionnaires during the 2022–2023 academic year. Summative statistics were analyzed for climate science knowledge, self-identity, self-efficacy, and sense of place. Students felt more prepared, confident, and able to communicate within their communities about climate change and many demonstrated a significantly better understanding of climate science concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow-regulated discharges of water from control structures into estuaries result in hydrologic and water chemistry conditions that impact spatial and temporal variability in the structure and biomass of phytoplankton communities, including the potential for harmful algal blooms (HABs). The relationships between regulated Caloosahatchee River (i.e., C-43 Canal) discharges and phytoplankton communities in the Caloosahatchee Estuary and adjacent nearshore regions on the southwest coast of Florida were investigated during two study periods, 2009–2010 and 2018–2019. During periods of low to moderate discharge rates, when mesohaline conditions predominated in the estuary, and water residence times were comparatively long, major blooms of the HAB dinoflagellate species Akashiwo sanguinea were observed in the estuary. Periods of high discharge were characterized by comparatively low phytoplankton biomass in the estuary and greater influence of a wide range of freshwater taxa in the upper reaches. By contrast, intense blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis in the nearshore region outside of the estuary were observed during high discharge periods in 2018–2019. The latter events were significantly associated with elevated levels of nitrogen in the estuary compared to lower average concentrations in the 2009–2010 study period. The relationships observed in this study provide insights into the importance of managing regulated discharge regimes to minimize adverse impacts of HABs on the health of the estuary and related coastal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Life span varies greatly across plants, with some species being capable of extreme longevity. Yet even long‐lived individuals are susceptible to climatic events, fire, and other challenges. We examined rare mortality events and their causes in two long‐lived palmettos over four decades. Methods: We monitored the survival of the clonal Serenoa repens and non‐clonal, Florida‐endemic Sabal etonia from 1981 to 2022 in four habitats along an elevational gradient within the globally imperiled Florida scrub ecosystem. We considered several challenges to palmetto survival, including extreme fires, shading due to lack of fire, droughts, periods of high precipitation, and possible pathogens. Results: Survival of palmettos was remarkably high, and mortality was infrequent (Serenoa: cumulative, 5.7%; annualized, 0%–0.68%; Sabal: cumulative, 3.5%; annualized, 0%–0.43%). Mortality was highest in higher‐elevation habitats with greater soil drainage, and smaller palmettos were more likely to die. When subjected to extreme fire, Serenoa suffered greater mortality than Sabal. Mortality in long‐unburned habitats with increased shading rivaled that which occurred with extreme fire. There was no evidence of mortality due to lethal bronzing palm disease. Conclusions: Both palmettos had exceptionally low mortality rates, which, coupled with earlier work showing slow rates of transition from seedling to adult and remarkable adult longevity, suggest notably low rates of population turnover. Observed mortality in long‐unburned habitats suggests the importance of fire‐management planning with prescription burning. Lengthy age to reproduction and/or dependency on clonal propagation limits migration or genetic adaptation to altered conditions caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Fisheries provide countless benefits to human populations but face many threats ranging from climate change to overfishing. Despite these threats and an increase in fishing pressure globally, most stocks remain unassessed and data limited. An abundance of data‐limited assessment methods exists, but each has different data requirements, caveats, and limitations. Furthermore, developing informative model priors can be difficult when little is known about the stock, and uncertain model parameters could create misleading results about stock status. Our research illustrates an approach for rapidly creating robust initial assessments of unregulated and data‐limited fisheries without the need for additional data collection. Methods: Our method uses stakeholder knowledge combined with a series of data‐limited tools to identify an appropriate stock assessment method, conduct an assessment, and examine how model uncertainty influences the results. Our approach was applied to the unregulated and data‐limited fishery for Crevalle Jack Caranx hippos in Florida. Result: Results suggested a steady increase in exploitation and a decline in stock biomass over time, with the stock currently overfished and undergoing overfishing. These findings highlight a need for management action to prevent continued stock depletion. Conclusion: Our approach can help to streamline the initial assessment and management process for unregulated and data‐limited stocks and serves as an additional tool for combating the many threats facing global fisheries. Impact statementThis study presents a method for conducting rapid, low‐cost fish stock assessments that was applied to the Crevalle Jack fishery in Florida. Application of this method to unregulated fish species can help managers better assess fish stocks and conserve important fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common question posed to environmental scientists by nonscientists, particularly policymakers, is the following: In a world that is globally warmer, what will the new climate be like in specific geographical regions? This question has been and continues to be addressed by computer modeling, a technique that is out of reach for vast majority of students. However, an alternate approach to investigating this issue exists that is more practical for students. Past climates can be inferred for specific regions from fossils, utilizing climate tolerances of related modern organisms. When these inferred past climates correspond to periods of the Earth's history where levels of carbon dioxide were as high or higher than today, these data can be used to extrapolate possible future local climates in a globally warmer world. The last Pleistocene interglacial period (known as the Eemian), which occurred approximately 120,000 years ago, is an ideal time period for studies of this kind for the following reasons. First, carbon dioxide levels were elevated at this time to levels approximating modern global conditions, and the world was warmer as evidenced by a much higher sea level than exists today. Secondly, most Eemian-age animals (especially mollusks) still exist, have known climate tolerances, and are relatively common as fossils. Students examining fossil mollusk faunas have applied this methodology to infer the Eemian climates of South Florida and coastal Virginia and found unexpectedly that for both regions the Eemian climate did not greatly differ from the modern one. The methodology described here can be used to address other important questions and puts such authentic and potentially valuable scientific research within practical reach of student scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Florida spring-fed rivers are known for their submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). which provides habitat for fish and aquatic crustaceans and food for the Florida manatee. Salinization of coastal spring-fed rivers due to climate change and sea level rise have been documented and can cause changes 10 SAV communities. This study investigated patterns and relationships between the SAV community and salinity of the Chassahowitzka River (Citrus County, FL, USA) to extrapolate the long-term effects of river salinization. A distinct dichotomy was seen in the SAV community structure: communities where salt tolerant Chaetomorpha spp. was present and communities where freshwater filamentous algae species were present. Freshwater filamentous algae demonstrated an inverse relationship with salinity. Chaetomorpha spp. replaced the freshwater filamentous algae in regions too salty for freshwater algae to grow. These patterns in the SAV community resulted in three different ecological zones in the Chassahowitzka River: low salinity/freshwater tidal, transition, and brackish zones. While freshwater filamentous algae and Chaetomorpha spp. were characteristic of the freshwater and brackish zones respectively, both species were identified within the transition zone. Utilizing the presence/absence of these macroalgae types could allow for an in-situ approach of characterizing regions of coastal spring-fed rivers that show increased salinization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearctic migratory songbirds have demonstrated low levels of genetic differentiation and weak phylogeographical structure in mitochondrial DNA lineages compared with resident species. The common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula , is a widespread, partially migratory, North American icterid composed of three currently recognized subspecies. In this study, mensural characters (external and skeletal measurements) and the complete mitochondrial genome together with two mitochondrial genes, Cytb and ND2 , were used to investigate subspecific differentiation and demographic history of the common grackle. The results showed substantial variation in body size among subspecies, mostly distributed between the 'Florida grackle', Quiscalus quiscula quiscula , and the two other subspecies. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA indicated low levels of genetic variation, but we found distinct haplotypes in Florida that form a clade in the phylogenetic tree. This suggests that the nominate subspecies in Florida is a distinct evolutionary unit. The sharing of haplotypes among the other subspecies (Quiscalus quiscula versicolor and Quiscalus quiscula stonei) in the north suggests high levels of gene flow, making the status of these two subspecies equivocal. Gene flow between nominate Q. q. quiscula , Q. q. versicolor and putative Q. q. stonei is probably attributable to historical changes in distribution and abundance following climate change events. We therefore recognize only two subspecies in the common grackle complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes by humans have eliminated more than half of the wetlands in Florida over the last 200 years, and additional losses are anticipated as a consequence of climate change and ongoing development activities that will accommodate a rapidly growing human population. Both spell danger for the biodiversity and ecosystem services in Florida, and data are needed to inform conservation priorities and actions concerning threatened or endangered wetland species. We modeled the projected distribution of an endangered epiphyte native to the forested wetlands in South Florida, Guzmania monostachia (Bromeliaceae), in response to changing climate and sea level conditions. We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) under the present framework by using georeferenced occurrence points and projected them into the past and future under different scenarios. Our future climate-based ENMs predicted small losses in suitable habitat for G. monostachia in South Florida, with expansions into higher latitudes due to the warmer climate. In contrast, the models predicted a considerable, although non-detrimental, loss of suitable habitat due to rising sea levels. The combined results suggest that human activity is and will remain the largest threat to G. monostachia in Florida, and conservation efforts should focus on preserving existing habitats that will remain above sea level and explore possibilities for assisted migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle 27 days before the 2018 elections. In the aftermath the governor issued Executive Order 18-283, allowing election officials in eight affected counties to loosen a variety of voting laws and consolidate polling places but providing no emergency funding to maintain the planned number of polling places. We test the efficacy of the order, using a novel research design that separates the weather effects of the hurricane on turnout from the administrative effects of how the election was run. We find little evidence that the hurricane itself (as proxied by historically relative rainfall) reduced turnout but that the executive order likely had large, negative turnout effects thanks to widespread polling place consolidation. Natural disasters need not spell turnout disasters if state and local election officials can avoid reducing the number of polling places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's forests play a pivotal role in the mitigation of global climate change, since by photosynthesis trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store carbon in their biomass. Particularly, tropical forests have assumed increasing importance in international efforts to mitigate climate change due to their capacity to store carbon and because of the significant emissions that their destruction causes. The urban environment presents important considerations for global climate change, considering that over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. We conducted this project in the St. Thomas University Campus forest, in Miami Gardens, north of the city of Miami, Florida, U.S.A., as a part of the Summer Research Seminar course we developed in years 2019 and 2020, with the purpose of calculating the amount of Biomass that the forest produces. We measured the Perimeters of hardwood tree species in centimeters using a Tailor's Tape as a first step to determining their biomass. We then transformed Perimeters into Diameters, and with Diameters at Breast Height (DBH), we calculated biomass and carbon stock utilizing an allometric equation by Brown and Iverson, particularly one with the highest Determination Coefficient among those analyzed for this purpose (R²= 0.94). Total Biomass based on our measurements is 561,428.30 Kg (= 561.43 Mg or 17.54 Mg Ha-1). Total Carbon Stock stored is 280,714.17 Kg (= 80.71 Mg or 8.71 Mg Ha-1). These results may serve as beneficial assets to encourage the calculation of Biomass/Carbon stock of tree species, and to foster reforestation projects by academic and public institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents preliminary results from recent bathymetric LiDAR-guided surveys of submerged archaeological landscapes in the Apalachee Bay off the coast of Florida. We show how bathymetric LiDAR can re-identify previously recorded archaeological sites and identify new cultural deposits at shallow depths and help aid SCUBA surveys of submerged environments. While most prior archaeological applications of bathymetric LiDAR have focused on shipwrecks and historic era sites, our case study demonstrates that bathymetric LiDAR is capable of detecting Holocene and Pleistocene era archaeological sites as well. Detecting and eventually characterizing these ancient deposits will greatly expand our understanding of settlement trends when sea levels were lower and may provide insights into how some of the earliest coastal populations adapted to this novel and changing environment. Our SCUBA surveys also elucidate the impact of local environmental conditions of the applicability of deploying bathymetric LiDAR; specifically, eel grass cover does not hinder LiDAR capabilities, while high rates of sedimentation greatly reduce success in identifying archaeological deposits. Overall, our results show promise in the future of applying remote sensing to study shallow submerged archaeological landscapes, which can help improve our understanding of human–environment dynamics prior to and during periods of sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwest Florida is one of the most rapidly growing regions of the United States and has been impacted over the past decade with water-quality issues and some associated health problems. The ionic ratios of the dust measured in southwest Florida vary significantly from those on the Florida east coast and in the Caribbean. The metals concentrations reported herein are enriched in potassium and calcium from local sources. Atmospheric deposition of metals and nutrients appears to have potential impacts on both indirect health problems and environmental issues of concern, particularly harmful algal blooms. However, no significant past research has been performed on measurement of the concentration of either metals including the micronutrient iron or nutrient concentrations occurring in atmospheric dry and wet fallout in southwest Florida. Measurements of the composition of key metals and nutrients were made over a one-year period. Concentrations of total phosphorus in the dust ranged from 0–80.5 mg/kg with an average of 4 mg/kg and in rainfall from 1–15.8 чg/L with an average of 4 mg/kg. Nitrate ranged from 0–746 чg/L with an average of 114.4 чg/L in rainfall in a soluble form, and from 1.3 to 718 mg/kg with an average of 209.9 mg/kg in an insoluble form. Ammonia was measured to range from 1.4 to 658 mg/kg with an average of 101.4 mg/kg in rainfall. Iron was found in the dust at concentrations ranging from 0–81 mg/kg with an average of 3.8 mg/kg and in rainfall from 0–125.7 mg/kg with an average of 3.0 mg/kg. While the measured nutrient and iron concentrations are not likely to initiate a harmful algal bloom, they are likely to sustain an existing bloom. Global climate change may exacerbate the atmospheric aerosol issue by increased wind speeds over Africa associated with longer term drought conditions caused by atmospheric temperature increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate the effects of fresh water and seawater flooding on phosphorous (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in two calcareous soils (Biscayne and Krome) of South Florida using a 28-day greenhouse flooding experiment. Porewater samples were collected at three depths over four periods (1, 7, 14, and 28 days) of flooding and analyzed for selected water quality parameters. Results showed that seawater-flooded Biscayne soil had a 4.4 fold higher porewater soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration than freshwater. Additionally, porewater SRP concentration and total phosphorus (TP) in Biscayne soil increased with prolonged flooding duration and column depth. Furthermore, both freshwater and seawater flooding increased porewater NH4+ - N concentration; however, the increase was more pronounced in seawater flooded samples. NH4+ - N concentration also increased with flooding duration. Overall, the study highlights the risks of nutrient leaching from seawater flooded coastal soils that could contribute to the deterioration of surface and groundwater quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands are predicted to undergo extensive transformation due to climate and land use change. Baseline maps of coastal wetlands can be used to help assess changes. Found in the upper portion of the estuarine zone, high marsh and salt pannes/flats provide ecosystem goods and services and are particularly important to fish and wildlife. We developed the first map of high marsh and salt pannes/flats along the northern Gulf of Mexico using regional models that included spectral indices related to greenness and wetness from optical satellite imagery, elevation data, irregularly flooded wetland probability information, and synthetic aperture radar backscatter. We found the greatest relative coverage of high marsh along the Texas coast (30% to 65%) and the Florida Panhandle (40%), whereas the greatest relative coverage of salt pannes/flats was along the lower Texas coast (74%) and the middle Texas coast (15%). As part of this effort, we also developed a map that highlighted irregularly flooded wetlands dominated by Juncus roemerianus (black needlerush) for part of the study area. Both maps had an overall accuracy of around 80%. Our results advance the understanding of estuarine marsh zonation and provide a baseline for assessing future transformations. This is the first map of high marsh and salt pannes/flats along the northern Gulf of Mexico and provides a baseline for understanding transformations predicted to occur with climate change. Due to high elevation uncertainty in wetlands, we used a map of irregularly flooded wetland probability that was created using elevation error assumptions. Irregularly flooded wetland probability, synthetic aperture radar backscatter, and spectral indices related to greenness and wetness were important predictor variables. Differences in wetland zonation and species composition along the study area led to variation in models by region. The framework presented here could be adapted to other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade−1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade−1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The roles religion and politics play in the climate change arena have received greater attention in the past decade. Nonetheless, the relationship between religion and politics in how they shape climate change views is poorly understood, particularly among American evangelicals. This study uses data from a probability-based mail survey of residents in the political swing state of Florida, USA to examine the relationships between evangelical identity, religiosity, partisan affiliation and three measures of climate-related views: global warming knowledge, belief, and risk perception. Findings from structural equation modeling demonstrate that evangelical identity, mediated by religiosity, exerts significant negative influences on climate measures, even when partisan affiliation is considered. We discuss these results, exploring the nuanced relationships between these variables and the implications they have on the climate change views of a large and influential segment of the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Anastasia Mosquito Control District (AMCD) of St. Johns County (SJC), St. Augustine, Florida, USA, was formed in 1948 to cover the 27 km2 of Anastasia Island and control the black salt marsh mosquito, Aedes taeniorhynchus (Wiedemann). Today AMCD covers the entirety of SJC (1588 km2) and Ae. taeniorhynchus is still the most abundant mosquito species in the county. Here we present the findings from 16 years' worth of surveillance records of AMCD mosquito populations in conjunction with annual land-use land-cover (LULC) change and climate data to better understand how environmental factors have impacted SJC Ae. taeniorhynchus populations in recent history. The statistical regression and geospatial analyses demonstrated the presence of spatial and temporal clusters of Ae. taeniorhynchus populations in terms of abundance and distribution. Additionally, Ae. taeniorhynchus abundance and distribution were significantly influenced by the annual changes of LULC and climate variables. The linear regression analysis using standard least square and corrected Akaike Information Criterion revealed a migration of mangrove swamps and saltwater marshes that corresponded to a southern shift in the spatial–temporal distribution of Ae. taeniorhynchus communities. This was confirmed by the significant change in LULC characteristics between three representative years (2004, 2009, 2014) and the redistribution of Ae. taeniorhynchus abundances represented by Moran's I index values. The annual values of four climate variables (average and minimum temperature, mean dew point, and maximum vapor pressure deficit) and three LULC types (mangrove swamps, saltwater pools within saltmarshes, and upland nonforested) significantly predicted annual abundance and redistribution of Ae. taeniorhynchus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate and prepare for disaster risks, reduce costs from damage, and save their lives. However, previous fragmented studies have not provided an integrated model to directly compare the factors and identify factors that are most influential in at-risk community members' behaviors. I present the Integrated Model of Risk Communication by consolidating major theories. This study uses structural equation modeling of quantitative surveys to simultaneously test the impacts of 15 factors on 15 adaptation behaviors for the two most common federally declared disasters (wildfires and hurricanes with floods) in three disaster-prone U.S. states (California, Florida, and Texas) (N = 3,468). Specifically, this study examines 15 behaviors including preparedness, nonstructural mitigation, structural mitigation, insurance purchase, and adaptation policy support. Social norms perceptions, self-efficacy, response efficacy, and resource constraints strongly affect behaviors. Response efficacy strongly affects policy support. Risk perception, knowledge, and climate change perception—commonly argued to be key drivers—are insignificant or weak. The models explain 55%–86% of the variance in adaptation behaviors. Results suggest that the focus of adaptation efforts may need to shift from risk perception and climate change perception to efficacy and social norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For nearly fifty years, courts distinguished between per se physical takings and regulatory takings. Yet, in 2021, the Supreme Court signaled a change of course with the monumental Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid decision. The ruling challenges the government's ability to mandate anything that impacts private property. In the face of environmental catastrophe and increasing pressure to assuage our climate crisis, how can governments respond without triggering a takings challenge? Chief Justice Roberts in his majority decision may have left the door cracked open for governments to work around the Cedar Point Nursery ruling. By looking at the legacy of other takings challenges, namely Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council, this Comment argues that regulators and legislators may find hope in Cedar Point Nursery's implied and stated exceptions. Florida is at a heightened risk from environmental calamity and will need to rely on creative lawmaking to prevent paying out just compensation. From proposed inspection regimes to wildlife protection and more, Floridian municipal and county governments rely on the temporary use of private property. This Comment proposes the ways in which Florida can still achieve progressive climate action while staying within the Supreme Court's new takings law framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological regime shifts are expected to increase this century as climate change propagates cascading effects across ecosystems with coupled elements. Here, we demonstrate that the climate-driven salt marsh-to-mangrove transition does not occur in isolation but is linked to lesser-known oyster reef-to-mangrove regime shifts through the provision of mangrove propagules. Using aerial imagery spanning 82 y, we found that 83% of oyster reefs without any initial mangrove cover fully converted to mangrove islands and that mean (± SD) time to conversion was 29.1 ± 9.6 y. In situ assessments of mangrove islands suggest substantial changes in ecosystem structure during conversion, while radiocarbon dates of underlying reef formation indicate that such transitions are abrupt relative to centuries-old reefs. Rapid transition occurred following release from freezes below the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) physiological tolerance limit (27.3 °C) and after adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Additional nonclimatemediated drivers of ecosystem change were also identified, including oyster reef exposure to wind-driven waves. Coupling of regime shifts arises from the growing supply of mangrove propagules from preceding and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Climate projections near the mangrove range limit on the Gulf coast of Florida suggest that regime shifts will begin to transform subtropical estuaries by 2070 if propagule supply keeps pace with predicted warming. Although it will become increasingly difficult to maintain extant oyster habitat with tropicalization, restoring oyster reefs in high-exposure settings or active removal of mangrove seedlings could slow the coupled impacts of climate change shown here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular phylogenetic studies that have included sirenians from the genera Trichechus, Dugong, and Hydrodamalis have resolved their interrelationships but have yielded divergence age estimates that are problematically discordant. The ages of these lineage splits have profound implications for how to interpret the sirenian fossil record--including clade membership, biogeographic patterns, and correlations with Earth history events. In an effort to address these issues, here we present a total evidence phylogenetic analysis of Sirenia that includes living and fossil species and applies Bayesian tip-dating methods to estimate their interrelationships and divergence times. In addition to extant sirenians, our dataset includes 56 fossil species from 106 dated localities and numerous afrotherian outgroup taxa. Genetic, morphological, temporal, and biogeographic data are assessed simultaneously to bring all available evidence to bear on sirenian phylogeny. The resulting time-tree is then used for Bayesian geocoordinates reconstruction analysis, which models ancestral geographic areas at splits throughout the phylogeny, thereby allowing us to infer the direction and timing of dispersals. Our results suggest that Pan-Sirenia arose in North Africa during the latest Paleocene and that the Eocene evolution of stem sirenians was primarily situated in the Tethyan realm. In the late Eocene, some lineages moved into more northern European latitudes, an area that became the source region for a key trans-Atlantic dispersal towards the Caribbean and northern-adjacent west Atlantic. This event led to the phylogenetic and biogeographic founding of crown Sirenia with the Dugongidae-Trichechidae split occurring at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (~33.9 Ma), temporally coincident with the onset of dropping global sea levels and temperatures. This region became the nexus of sirenian diversification and supported taxonomically-rich dugongid communities until the earliest Pliocene. The Dugonginae-Hydrodamalinae split occurred near Florida during the early Miocene (~21.2 Ma) and was followed by a west-bound dispersal that gave rise to the Pacific hydrodamalines. The late middle Miocene (~12.2 Ma) split of Dugong from all other dugongines also occurred near Florida and our analyses suggest that the Indo-Pacific distribution of modern dugongs is the result of a trans-Pacific dispersal. From at least the early Miocene, trichechid evolution was based entirely in South America, presumably within the Pebas Wetlands System. We infer that the eventual establishment of Amazon drainage into the South Atlantic allowed the dispersal of Trichechus out of South America no earlier than the mid-Pliocene. Our analyses provide a new temporal and biogeographic framework for understanding major events in sirenian evolution and their possible relationships to oceanographic and climatic changes. These hypotheses can be further tested with the recovery and integration of new fossil evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The campus of the University of West Florida (UWF) was constructed among second-growth longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) stands that survived extensive logging in the Florida Panhandle. Previous studies on longleaf pine on the main UWF campus have estimated, based on a model from old-growth longleaf in southern Georgia, that oldest stems were just under 200 yr old and that > 80% of stems on the main UWF are between 50 and 125 years old. More accurate age data can be obtained from disks collected locally from recently fallen trees. On 16 September 2020, Hurricane Sally impacted UWF as a Category 2 storm, with winds reaching 49 m/sec. Our study took advantage of longleaf pine blowdowns by Sally to obtain cross-sections for age determinations. Two natural areas of the UWF campus were chosen for sampling: the Edward Ball Nature Trail and the Baars-Firestone Wildlife Sanctuary. For each sampled section, diameter at breast height (DBH) and number and width of annual rings were recorded. Based on a total of 50 sampled trees, linear regression revealed a statistically significant (P < 0.00001; R2 = 0.82) relationship between DBH and age. Applying this to DBH measurements of 2,165 stems on the main campus indicates that the oldest longleaf pines are ~ 130 years old (mean age = 63.9 ± 0.4 yr), consistent with cessation of historically widespread harvesting in the region. Mean age for the Trails site (55.7 ± 1.6 yr) was significantly lower than that of the Sanctuary (66.7 ± 2.0 yr), suggesting that they represent sites of contrasting land-use history. Annual growth rates of older pines were mostly negatively correlated with temperature. Directions of stem windthrows did not vary between natural areas and were consistent with characteristics of the eyewall of Hurricane Sally with strongest wind gusts moving from a southeast to northwest direction. This study confirms that college/university campuses can be used as a units of ecological study in a way that takes advantage of stochastic events such as tropical cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and sea level rise present significant risks to coastal governments' fiscal and service solvency. Current lack of focus on climate change by the U.S. federal and some state governments pressures coastal governments to develop tractable solutions to manage localized risks. This research integrates adaptive governance and capital planning literatures to develop an adaptive risk management framework. Heeding the call for research of coastal county actions to plan for and respond to climate change, we conduct content analysis of planning documents, financial reports, meeting minutes, media reports, and other documentation of all coastal counties in Florida to quantify government efforts to address climate change. Risk management practices are hierarchically categorized by focus area, risk type, and tactic and placed within the adaptive risk management process framework. A well-functioning adaptive risk management process can redefine vague climate change risks into knowable, tractable problems to address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine sequential landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. We find that Florida and Louisiana are most prone to sequential landfall risk. The minimal time between sequential landfalling TC has decreased for most regions since 1979, although the trend is not statistically significant given limited data. A climate projection indicates a significant increase in sequential landfalls over the 21st century under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, with the chance of a location experiencing a less‐than‐10‐day break between two TC impacts being doubled for most regions. The increases in sequential landfalls in the historical period and projected future climate are both related to increased landfall frequency, even though the storm season has been slightly expanding and may continue to expand. This study highlights a new type of TC hazard resulting from the temporal compounding of landfalls and urges the improvement of coastal resilience. Plain Language Summary: Sequential landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs), which make landfall near a location within a short period of time, can be hazardous for coastal communities. Analyzing the historical records for the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, we find that the states of Florida and Louisiana are most prone to sequential TC hazard, and this hazard has had an increasing potential for most coastal regions since 1979. Performing future projections of TCs under the effect of climate change, we find that the sequential TC hazard may increase even more significantly in the future. The increased sequential TC hazard in both the historical period and a projected future climate is related to the increased annual frequency of landfalling TCs. This study highlights a new type of TC hazard resulting from the temporal compounding of landfalling TCs and urges the improvement of coastal resilience, e.g., shortening the time scales for infrastructure recovery after TC landfalls. Key Points: Time intervals between sequential landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) has decreased for most US regions, although the trend is not statistically significantA climate downscaling projection indicates that intervals between sequential US landfalling TCs may significantly decrease in the futureThe decreased intervals and increased chances of sequential landfalling TCs are mainly driven by increases in storm landfall frequency [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster induced and climate related migration and displacement are a crucial issue in the era of climate change. Particularly, human mobility, immobility, and trapped populations are forms of proactive or inactive responses to those negative disturbances. The authors hypothesize that human immobility is deeply rooted in socio-geographical factors such as income, home rental or ownership, insurance coverage, how long one has lived in the area, and previous disaster experiences. This comparative case study was administered at the neighborhood level in Hillsborough County, Florida, which was impacted by Hurricane Irma. The results indicate that new residents who lived in their homes for less than five years were more likely to be non-insurance holders whether they were renters or homeowners. Long term residents, who lived in the same home for more than 13 years, tended to be immobile while holding several types of home insurance coverage. Those who indicated that they do not have home insurance and answered "no idea" when asked whether they will stay in one place or move in years to come have a higher potential to become "trapped" when disaster strikes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Altered weather patterns associated with climate change are likely to adversely affect amphibian recruitment, especially for species dependent on ephemeral, geographically isolated wetlands for breeding. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could affect hydroregimes (periodicity, depth, duration, and timing of water in wetlands) or adult breeding effort. We used 24 years of continuous amphibian trapping, weather, and hydroregime data to identify breeding-to-metamorphosis periods (BMPs) and environmental factors affecting annual recruitment by three hylid species at eight isolated ephemeral limesink ponds in Florida longleaf-wiregrass sandhills. We used standardized climate metrics (Bioclim variables) to predict future precipitation, temperature and hydroregime variables, then used them to predict future recruitment in 2050 and 2070 under two emissions scenarios. We hypothesized that Hyla gratiosa would be more sensitive to short-term pond drying than H. femoralis or H. squirella due to its lower abundance and more specific habitat requirements. Hyla gratiosa recruitment was not explained by adult breeding effort and was more dependent on higher water levels during BMPs than for H. femoralis or H. squirella, independent of rainfall. In contrast, H. femoralis and H. squirella recruitment depended heavily on rainfall independent of pond depth and was positively associated with adult breeding effort. Models predicted moderate decreases in H. gratiosa and H. squirella recruitment by 2050 but projections were highly uncertain for all three species by 2070. Our findings highlight the importance of maintaining wetlands with diverse hydroregimes to accommodate species with different BMPs and hydroregime requirements. Proactive monitoring and conservation measures such as headstarting and creating artificial ponds may be necessary for these and other amphibian species that may suffer reduced recruitment under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variable density flow (VDF) modeling is a valuable tool for assessing the potential impacts of global climate change and sea level rise on coastal aquifers. When using any of these modeling tools, a quantitative relationship is needed to compute the fluid density from salt concentration. A full understanding of the relationship between fluid density and solute concentration and the correct implementation of the equation of state are critical for variable density modeling. The works of Baxter and his colleagues in the early 20th century showed that fluid density could be linearly correlated to salt concentrations. A constant density slope of 0.7 is often assumed and applied. The assumption is reasonable when the salinity is less than 100‰. The density slope can also be defined from chloride concentration data with the assumption of a constant ratio (55%) between chloride and total dissolved solids (TDS). Field data from central Florida indicate that the chloride/TDS ratio can be as low as 5%. Therefore, TDS is the preferred water quality data for fluid density determination in variable density modeling. Other issues with density slope are also discussed, and some commonly used values of density slope are provided in this technical note. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]