Search

• The SOC in two depths were mapped at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval during 1980–2100. • Three climate scenarios of SSP 1–1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 were considered. • The top 20 cm and 100 cm SOC of China both acted as carbon sinks during 1980–2020. • The SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. • Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source in most region. Revealing historical changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and exploring its future status are important for safeguarding soil health and food security, giving full play to the service function of soil ecosystems, and coping with climate change. However, there is still a gap in our understanding of the SOC stocks in China and their spatial patterns in response to future climate change. Therefore, we attempted to fill this knowledge gap using a large amount of soil observation data, digital soil mapping technology, and global circulation models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, a random forest model was selected to construct the spatial relationship between SOC in the top 0–20 cm (SOC020) and 0–100 cm (SOC0100) of the soil and 21 environmental factors. Spatiotemporal changes in SOC from 1980 to 2100 were revealed at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval for three climate scenarios in CMIP6. The cross-validation results indicated acceptable predictions for both depths of SOC; however, relatively large prediction uncertainties were observed for SOC0100 in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern China. The mean values of SOC020 and SOC0100 over the last four decades were 35.77 and 84.62 Tg, respectively, and showed carbon sinks at the national scale, with accumulation rates of 0.05 Pg yr-1 and 0.036 Pg y-1 for the two depths. Compared with historical values (1980–2020), SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. Among them, SOC showed a slow increasing trend at both depths under the SSP1-1.9 low emission scenario, while SOC presented a decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 medium–high emission scenarios. In particular, in most of China under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC0100 presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source. This study provides a reference for exploring the response of soil carbon pools to climate change and evaluating the effectiveness of land management and ecological protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• BEMD was applied to high-resolution SOM map in northwestern China. • Scale- and region-specific variations in SOM were unraveled. • The variance of SOM was partitioned by climate, topography and land surface. • Main factors that influencing SOM were different in different scales. Soil organic matter (SOM) significantly affects soil quality, food security, and the global carbon cycle. Variations in the SOM content are controlled by many environmental factors and differ depending on the scale and region. The Mountain–Oasis–Desert System (MODS) in arid areas is limited by climate conditions and water and soil resources. Therefore, the effects of environmental factors on the SOM content may differ. This study aimed to characterize spatial patterns of the SOM content in a MODS in northwestern China and reveal the SOM variations at different scales and regions. First, we employed the random forest model to predict the SOM content and the uncertainty at the nodes of a 90 m grid. We then extracted scale- and region-dependent variations in the SOM content using bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD). Data analysis, geostatistics, and a two-dimensional fast Fourier transform were applied to analyze the SOM pattern and its correlations with environmental covariates at different scales. The results suggest that the variations in the SOM content were mainly concentrated at the large scale. The correlations between environmental factors and the SOM were scale- and region-specific, indicating complex interrelationships among topography, land use, salinization, soil erosion, and fertilization. At the intermediate-large spatial scale, topography characteristics and surface features were the major factors controlling the SOM content, whereas the climate had a larger effect on SOM than other factors at the large scale. Based on our results, BEMD has great potential to reveal SOM variations in the scale–region domain. BEMD can be used in environmental modeling in the future to gain insights into the variations in soil properties depending on environmental factors and anthropogenic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]