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The main objective of the present paper is to provide the reasons behind the rise and fall of resources for innovation policies in Brazil between 1999 and 2016. The paper also intends to provide a broad map of the financial relations between funding sources and financial agents in the Brazilian National System of Innovation (NSI). In order to do that, the paper uses mixed methods: a historical approach to cover the motivations of the political economy; principles of network analyses to map the institutional relations between funding sources and financial agents; and economic theory to understand the determinants of the cash flows that finance science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. The institutional arrangement of the Brazilian NSI led the financial cycle to rely, on a general level, on GDP dynamism; the strategy of selected public bodies; on the federal budget decision process; and on the external economic cycle. Between 2003 and 2014, political struggles led to economic policies that favoured GDP growth and public spending, while the opposite occurred from 2015 onwards. In general, institutions were not equipped to protect the financial resources from the political changes of the mid-2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: The model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term. Findings: Contrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt. Originality/value: Despite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a Structural VAR approach, we estimated fiscal multipliers for social benefits in Brazil for 1997–2018. Our results suggest that social benefits have relatively large multiplier effects, even when compared to public investment. The multipliers are also larger in the full sample, which includes the country's 2014–16 economic crisis than in the period 1997–2014. In particular, our results show that spending one unit on social expenditures generates a final change in GDP of almost three after two years. The higher estimated multipliers in the full sample appear in the response of household consumption and private investment to shocks in total social expenditures and for different types of social benefits (e.g. cash transfers, unemployment insurance, and pensions). In a context in which the expansion of social protection became prominent as a response to structural changes in the labor market and the Covid-19 pandemic, our paper reinforces its potential role in the short-run economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the predictions of real business cycle theory on the roles of total factor productivity (TFP) and financial frictions to explain business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs). I obtain evidence about TFP, price of capital, risk premium, and collateral constraint shocks by estimating structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) on a Brazilian sample from 1999Q1 to 2018Q4 and a Mexican sample from 1997Q1 to 2018Q4. On each sample, two SVARs are estimated. One SVAR identifies shocks by imposing restrictions on their short-run impact. The other SVAR is grounded on restrictions that shocks have long-run effects on business cycles in EMEs. Estimates of the SVARs show the TFP shock is the main driver of business cycle movements in Brazil and Mexico. However, this evidence is produced by the SVAR under the long-run restrictions, which indicates the identification of shocks matters to the explanation of business cycles in EMEs. Next, the Brazilian and Mexican business cycles are markedly different, as the contributions of shocks to aggregate fluctuations vary across the two countries. Hence, findings of this paper suggest although not all business cycles are alike in EMEs, "the cycle is the trend" view on aggregate fluctuations in EMEs remains valid. The empirical results of this paper are in support of the economic policies that aim to robustify the productivity process of EMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article offers a chronological review of Jornal Nacional, Brazil's popular TV news programme, covering eight presidential elections post-redemocratization. With 108 texts analysed, including journal articles, conference papers, theses, and dissertations, the study focused on 'Jornal Nacional' and 'presidential election' keywords. It reconstructs a detailed historical account of pivotal electoral moments in Brazilian politics as portrayed on TV. The most significant discovery is the enduring scrutiny of the 1989 Lula vs. Collor debate's shortened version aired by the newscast. Notably, there's a lack of English-language publications on this topic. Brazil's economic fluctuations from 1989 to 2018, ranking between 6th and 12th globally, emphasize the need for international research attention to its political mass communication coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper argues that the recent Brazilian crisis was related to a cyclical profit squeeze that took place between 2009 and 2014, following the long expansion that started in 2003. To do so, the cyclical trajectories of the output and the profit rate in the Brazilian economy for the period between 1996 and 2016 are examined by resorting to the framework established by Weisskopf (1979). The results indicate that profit squeezes are rare in the Brazilian economy, possibly due to the truncated character of the business cycles' expansions. However, a profit squeeze did take place in the last cycle, partly as a result of the commodities boom, which attenuated the foreign vulnerability of the economy and allowed for a longer than usual expansion. JEL classification: B50, B51,E32 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil experienced a complete economic cycle with an ascending phase in the 2000s, followed by a decline during the following decade. Using the national accounts, the objective of this article is to trace the growth path of the Brazilian economy from the 2000s onwards through a detailed analysis of the financial balance and income flows of the institutional sectors. It will be shown that the economy has two relevant points of inflection: the first was the external shock occasioned by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was the change in domestic economic policy after 2015 following an austerity agenda. The article compares the financial balance of the institutional sectors at the two historical moments. It sheds new light on why the Brazilian economy entered the descending phase of the economic cycle and is stagnating and deepening its financialization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real GDP growth in Brazil, using both aggregate and state-level data. The focus is on distinguishing longer-run trends in this relationship from short-run cyclical fluctuations, and on documenting changes in these relationships over time. We use two different filtering techniques for separating trend and cycle, namely the commonly-used Hodrick-Prescott filter and the newer filter proposed by Hamilton (2018). We find that the long-run or trend elasticity for Brazil is about 0.8, higher than than in the average for advanced countries but below that of other major emerging markets. This elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The direction of these results is not entirely consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis but the quantitative difference between the two elasticities is not large (or statistically different from one another). Consequently, our findings suggest that shifts in the allocation of global production across countries are not a major driver of shifts in the pattern of emissions growth in Brazil. Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity, but also some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. Our analysis for 27 states does not reveal any underlying inverted U-shape relationship between the intensity of emissions-GDP relationship and the level of per capita GDP. That is, at the state level, we do not observe that Kuznets elasticity initially increases with provincial per capita real GDP but then declines. In addition to the trend relationship between emissions and output, we find that there does not seem to exist a short-run or cyclical relationship holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few individual states. Finally, we further find evidence of asymmetry in the cyclical relationship: the elasticity is higher in booms than during busts, and thus Brazil's emissions go up more when GDP is above trend than they decrease when GDP is below trend. However, this result seems to be mainly driven by a few states. The transition to a low-carbon economy will thus require continued progress not only in bringing down trend emissions, but also in taming the increase in emissions that occurs during the boom phase of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called energy transition has been associated with decreasing dependence on fossil fuel energy and low environmental impacts. Additionally, several communities worldwide still face energy poverty, with no or limited access to energy services. This paper evaluates the environmental and economic aspects related to replacing diesel-based power systems with photovoltaic and battery storage systems in a small indigenous community in northern Brazil. Nine environmental categories were analyzed for the life cycle perspective, from which it was established that the benefits of the photovoltaic system outperformed the diesel-based system in seven of the nine categories i.e., climate change (by a difference of 189.8 t CO 2 -eq over the system's lifetime, i.e., 300 MWh generated over 25 years), fossil depletion (by 66.7 t oil-eq), environmental toxicity (by 1.4 t 1,4-DCB-eq), particulate matter formation (by 1.5 t PM10-eq), photochemical oxidant formation (by 4.8 t NMVOC), terrestrial acidification (by 2.5 t SO 2 -eq), and eutrophication (by 1.7 t nutrients-eq). On the other hand, metal depletion showed similar values for both cases, while the diesel-based system was associated with lower human toxicity (by 14.8 t 1,4-DCB-eq) given the high usage of toxic metals when manufacturing the battery systems. Regarding the economic aspects, from stochastic analysis, the results for replacing diesel-based systems result in average savings of around 9 thousand USD over 25 years. Hopefully, these positive results might stimulate policy efforts that lead to mitigating energy poverty in Brazilian indigenous communities. • LCA and economic analysis of a PV and battery system compared to a diesel-based one. • The PV and battery system is superior in seven out of nine environmental categories. • The PV and battery system leads to savings of around 9 thousand USD over 25 years. • Social benefits are highlighted with a loss of power supply probability of only 0.2%. • The results of the paper might stimulate policy efforts to mitigate energy poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Committed to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century, South America faces unique challenges in carbon mitigation due to its distinct socio-economic, technological, and institutional backgrounds compared to developed and other developing economies. Previous research on South America's carbon emissions has limited country and sector coverage and typically adopts a top-down approach that focuses on the overall emissions of an economy, neglecting individual energy sources and emission sectors. Therefore, this paper compiles a comprehensive inventory of CO 2 emissions for South American countries based on a meticulous bottom-up approach and multi-source data integration, followed by a thorough analysis of their temporal evolution patterns and the driving forces behind them. Between 2010 and 2020, South America's overall emissions peaked in 2014 at 1092.3 Mt., led by emissions from oil consumption and from the transport and electricity sectors, and dropped to 865.6 Mt. in 2020, due to the economic fluctuations and COVID-19. Specifically, Brazil was the largest emitter, Chile experienced the most significant increase in emissions, and Paraguay recorded the highest emission growth rate. Generally, expanding population was constant driver of emission growth. High energy intensity led to significant emission increases in Brazil and Ecuador, while elevated carbon intensity was the main driver in Argentina. Energy structure changes played a positive role in most countries to different extents (e.g., much more significant in Brazil than in Chile) but aggrevated emissions in Paraguay and Guyana. Therefore, carbon mitigation strategies should be tailored to each country's unique national circumstances. • During 2010–2020, South America's CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels peaked in 2014. • Transport and electricity sectors comprised over 60% of total emissions. • Brazil was the top emitter, while Chile saw the largest increase in emissions. • Emission patterns and driving factors varied significantly across countries. • Carbon reduction strategies should be tailored to local circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document estimates an unobserved components model to examine the connection between the business cycle and the natural unemployment rate in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. I inquire about the possibility that the unemployment rate in these countries exhibits hysteresis and its nature. The results suggest an absence of hysteresis in Colombia's unemployment rate, supply-driven hysteresis effects in Brazil, and demand-driven hysteresis effects in Mexico. Hysteresis is defined as a dynamic structure in which the cyclical component of the unemployment rate has permanent effects on the natural component. The empirical specification is cast into a Bayesian state-space form and estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The specification allows for time-varying hysteresis and stochastic volatility. I use a Bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non-regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the hysteresis parameter and the variances of the innovations. Finally, the document discusses policy implications of findings regarding the degree of development in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business cycle analysis faces the challenge of high-dimensional databases with a time-irregular span. This study addresses these issues to estimate the Brazilian agricultural business cycle by proposing the use of an entropic test of relative information and the estimation of a generalized dynamic factor model in the context of a time-irregular span. In addition, we assess the co-movements between the estimated cycle and a wide range of weather, macroeconomic, and sectoral variables. The main results are: (i) the sharpest crises of the agricultural cycle are associated more with weather events than with Brazil's economic crises, reinforcing that agriculture has a stabilizing role in the aggregated cycles; (ii) among all the variables analyzed, those related to weather (minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) present the greatest commonalities with the agricultural cycle and are leading indicators; (iii) minimum temperatures and precipitation in states are essentially pro-cyclical, while maximum temperatures are pro-cyclical in typically colder states and counter-cyclical in warmer states; (iv) following the weather variables, credit variables had the highest average commonalities, with phases of expansion in the agricultural cycle leading to contractions in the indicators of arrears and defaults and in the interest rate of rural credit, with some time lag; (v) the behavior of the Brazilian economy and global demand for imports are also antecedent and pro-cyclical, but with relatively smaller commonalities; and (vi) expansions of the agricultural cycle lead to contractions in the unemployment rate of the economy. The contribution of this study is twofold: (1) its methodological innovation and (2) its application to the Brazilian agricultural business cycle, both of which are unprecedented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wood as a bioenergetic source requires knowledge of its technical properties. The rubber tree Hevea brasiliensis has an economic life cycle of 25 to 30 years in Brazil. It is used for extracting rubber and generating residual wood for fuel. Our goal was to characterize the wood quality of 10 clonal progenies as a source of raw material for bioenergy. Ten clonal progenies of 12-year-old Hevea brasiliensis from an experimental planting in Selvíria municipality were evaluated. Three trees per clone were evaluated for individual properties of Higher Heating Value, immediate chemical analysis, chemical composition, fiber dimensions, thermogravimetric analysis of wood under nitrogen atmosphere and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy analysis. We highlight clone IAC 311 for fuel because it presents elevated Higher Heating Value and fixed carbon and less volatile material. However, the other genetic materials studied also meet the specifications for energy use and can be highly viable given their physical, chemical, energy, and thermal properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For developing economies, agents' disagreement (risk) about future inflation can be tricky, mostly when the range of possibilities is not clear (ambiguity). We use the Brazilian survey of inflation forecasts to model ambiguity and risk in inflation expectations, considering 1, 6, and 12 months ahead. Our results indicate that an ambiguity inflation expectations shock (6 and 12 months time window) can negatively affect Brazilian economic cycles. On the other hand, risk shocks seem to have a moderate and significant effect only for 1 month ahead of expectations. This evidence shows that the maintenance of short and medium-run monetary policies, such as forward guidance, may depend on dynamics that go beyond first-order volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Following boom-and-bust economic cycles provoked by Brazilian governmental attempts to integrate Indigenous peoples into national society, it is approximately since the beginning of the 2000s that Brazilian Indigenous peoples came to be viewed officially as "poor" and victims of "hunger." Consequently, the national indigenist agency and other State entities started to conceive and implement diverse initiatives that ultimately injected money and resources into Indigenous communities. In 2019 we undertook an ethnographic study in three A'uwẽ (Xavante) communities in the Pimentel Barbosa Indigenous Reserve, Central Brazil, with the objective of analyzing how people understand and pursue food security. We propose that in the studied communities the complex network of A'uwẽ food reciprocity is a fundamental strategy for mitigating hunger and acute lack of food. We show that among the A'uwẽ, the hybrid economy that developed since the 1970s has proved resilient to dramatic transformations and uncertainty in the availability and characteristics of external government inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]