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Pakistan has been facing an electricity shortage since the year 2005, which is negatively affecting the country's agricultural, industrial, and services sectors growth. In this study, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software was used for forecasting energy mix of Pakistan for the period of 2022–2050 under the baseline and transformation scenarios. Baseline scenario emphasizes to enhance the share of hydro while transformation scenario emphasizes to enhance the share of biomass in total energy mix of Pakistan. Transformation scenario is recommended because hydro plants will retire in future and delay in construction of new hydro plants is noticed due to limited budget. In this regard, electrical energy is harvested using biomass based distributed power generation (BBDPG) for the sustainable economic development of Pakistan. The aggregate capacity of biomass is used which includes agriculture residue, forest residue, municipal waste, and animal waste. The results of this study show that the share of hydro at around 54.09% (614.14 TWh) is dominated over other renewable sources in the baseline scenario, whereas, in transformation scenario the share of biomass at around 33.3% (378 TWh) is dominated over other renewable sources till 2050. Pakistan could generate a total of 1135.20 TWh energy units in 2050, which would be enough to meet the future energy demand of 966.05 TWh by 2050. • Modeling of Pakistan's energy systems for the period 2022 to 2050. • Create balance between power demand and supply for economic development. • Role of biomass in energy mix is significant. • Provide sufficient power at competitive price and avoid capacity shortfall. • Proposed an energy policy for achieving renewable energy supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the recent climate change, organizations all over the globe are developing plans for reducing carbon emissions by developing clean energy technologies and energy efficient devices. In this regard, the developments have not been done over the past two decades on green energy in Pakistan and in general, the representation of renewable sources especially biomass feedstock supply such as agriculture residue, forest residue, municipal waste and animal waste for green energy transition pathways is limited. Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software, path for green energy transition is analyzed in Pakistan by incorporating the biomass feedstock under the ongoing and sustainable energy scenarios from 2022 to 2050. Results showed that the bioelectricity production will increase from 18.73 TWh (in the ongoing scenario) to the 265.20 TWh (in the biomass based sustainable energy scenario) till 2050. Furthermore, the development of biomass plants would help in reducing the CO 2 emissions from 138.47 million metric tonnes in the current scenario to 8.71 million metric tonnes in the sustainable energy scenario by 2050. This study will provide the fundamental data and aid the policy makers and other stakeholders to shift toward developing renewable and sustainable energy systems in Pakistan. • Role of biomass in energy mix is significant for Pakistan. • Pakistan is producing 560.19 million tons of biomass resource annually. • Bioelectricity production will increase from 18.73 to 265.20 TWh using biomass till 2050. • LEAP® model is developed for sustainable climate change. • Bioelectricity will reduce CO 2 emissions from 138.47 to 8.71 million metric tonnes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainable and eco-friendly economic growth of a country is associated with its economic progress and the advancement of its bioenergy sector. Biowaste can be used to produce bioenergy and is increasingly being recognized as a promising resource for filling the energy gap. However, in developing countries, biowaste-to-energy techniques are relatively immature owing to economic and technological challenges, forcing these countries to export cheap biowaste and obtain expensive energy imports. In this study, country-wise export data of potential biowaste materials were gathered, assessed, and filtered according to the feasibility of bioenergy generation. Five developing countries (Argentina, Brazil, India, Thailand, and Ukraine) were selected for the economic assessment based on the export value and revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Argentina has the most exports (9.59 billion USD), with seven biowaste products having RCA >1. The product space model (PSM) was employed to evaluate the income potential of biowaste and to appraise the studied countries overall level of sophistication, and then a suitable industrial policy was proposed according to PSM indicators. All the considered biowaste products have low-income potential, so it is better to produce bioenergy from these products. Thailand has the highest country-level sophistication, followed by India, Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina. However, according to the PSM, the EXPY values exhibit significant growth for India (52.3%) and Thailand (31.9%), while the remaining countries experience moderate EXPY growth. Furthermore, Thailand and Ukraine can generate more revenues by opting to bio-energy production. On the PSM industrial policy map, India, Thailand, Brazil and Ukraine lie in "let it be quadrant", while Argentina is in a "parsimonious industrial policy" region. The implementation of the suggested industrial policies can enhance the productive structure of the studied countries and help them achieve their projected growth targets. • Application of Product Space Model is presented in the study. • Product-space analysis considering PRODY, EXPY and Open Forest is carried out. • Ukraine and Thailand can generate more revenues by opting to bio-energy production • Thailand and India have high values of EXPY that shows high potential for future growth. • Brazil, Ukraine, Thailand and India lie in the most desired quadrant of product space [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]