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• A spatio-temporal prediction framework was developed to map SOC. • The inter-decadal maps of China SOC were updated to the 2010s. • Effects of climatic factors for SOC variability are location- and scale- specific. • The soils in China function as carbon sinks at national scale from 1980s to 2010s. Spatiotemporal variability in soil organic carbon (SOC) plays key roles in ecosystem stability and terrestrial carbon cycling. However, the inter-decadal characteristics of SOC variability and its climate drivers in China from the 1980s to 2010s remain unclear. In this study, a modeling framework for combining spatiotemporal prediction models was proposed. Within this model, soil samples from each of the two periods were combined and calibrated to obtain three models, and their prediction outputs were selectively combined to obtain SOC maps for the different inter-decadal periods. A total of 8473 soil samples from three periods (1980s, 2000s and 2010s) were used for model validation. The results suggested that the SOC prediction accuracy in the top 0–20 cm of soil (SOC 020) was better than that of the first meter of soil (SOC 0100), and the predicted spatial patterns shared characteristics with findings from previous studies. Predictions for the 1990s exhibited relatively high uncertainty, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, Tien Shan, and Northeast China. Both individual and coupled climatic factors exerted scale- and location-specific effects on the SOC. Coupled climatic factors accounted for more than 65% of the SOC variability in both soil layers. The regional SOC in North and Northeast China exhibited inter-decadal decline. Soil in China functioned as carbon sinks from the 1980s to 2010s at a national scale, with SOC 020 increasing from 30.40 Pg to 33.97 Pg and SOC 0100 from 79.29 Pg to 82.26 Pg. Overall, our results provide reliable baseline data for optimizing carbon cycle models of terrestrial ecosystems, and to guide future carbon sequestration policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The SOC in two depths were mapped at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval during 1980–2100. • Three climate scenarios of SSP 1–1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 were considered. • The top 20 cm and 100 cm SOC of China both acted as carbon sinks during 1980–2020. • The SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. • Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source in most region. Revealing historical changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and exploring its future status are important for safeguarding soil health and food security, giving full play to the service function of soil ecosystems, and coping with climate change. However, there is still a gap in our understanding of the SOC stocks in China and their spatial patterns in response to future climate change. Therefore, we attempted to fill this knowledge gap using a large amount of soil observation data, digital soil mapping technology, and global circulation models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, a random forest model was selected to construct the spatial relationship between SOC in the top 0–20 cm (SOC020) and 0–100 cm (SOC0100) of the soil and 21 environmental factors. Spatiotemporal changes in SOC from 1980 to 2100 were revealed at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval for three climate scenarios in CMIP6. The cross-validation results indicated acceptable predictions for both depths of SOC; however, relatively large prediction uncertainties were observed for SOC0100 in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern China. The mean values of SOC020 and SOC0100 over the last four decades were 35.77 and 84.62 Tg, respectively, and showed carbon sinks at the national scale, with accumulation rates of 0.05 Pg yr-1 and 0.036 Pg y-1 for the two depths. Compared with historical values (1980–2020), SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. Among them, SOC showed a slow increasing trend at both depths under the SSP1-1.9 low emission scenario, while SOC presented a decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 medium–high emission scenarios. In particular, in most of China under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC0100 presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source. This study provides a reference for exploring the response of soil carbon pools to climate change and evaluating the effectiveness of land management and ecological protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]