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Global warming is predicted to extend the growing season of trees and plants, and advance spring phenology. However, intensification of extreme climate events in midlatitude forests, from weakening of the jet stream and atmospheric blockings, may expose trees to increased risk associated with more frequent late-spring frosts. Still, little is known regarding the intraspecific variation in frost tolerance and how it may be shaped by local adaptation to the climate of seed origin. As part of an assisted migration trial located in different bioclimatic zones in the province of Quebec, Canada, and following an extensive late-spring frost that occurred at the end of May 2021, we evaluated the frost damages on various white spruce (Picea glauca) seed sources tested on three sites (south, central, and north). The severity of frost damages was assessed on 5,376 trees after the cold spell and an early spring warming which advanced bud flush by approximately 10 days on average. The frost damage rate was similar among sites and seed sources and averaged 99.8%. Frost damage severity was unrelated to the latitude of seed origin but was variable among sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was higher in the northern site, followed by central and southern sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was linearly and inversely related to tree height before the frost event. Apical growth cancelation was not significantly different among seed sources including local ones, and averaged 74, 46, and 22%, respectively, in central, northern, and southern plantation sites. This study provides recommendations to limit the loss of plantation productivity associated with such a succession of spring climate anomalies. Implications for seed transfer models in the context of climate change and productivity of spruce plantations are discussed in the light of lack of local adaptation to such pronounced climate instability and ensuing large-scale maladaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We exposed seedlings of conifer species to three realistic simulated future climates. • Seedlings of conifer species experienced high mortality (75%) induced by drought. • Conifer species are highly vulnerable at the seedling stage to future drought. • Hydraulic safety margins are good indicators of mortality risk for conifer species. The future climate of northern temperate forests is projected to be drier and warmer by the end of this century. As a result, more drought-induced forest dieback events are anticipated in northeastern North America, and assessing the vulnerability of dominant tree species to drought is critical for understanding the future composition of these forests. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed two-year-old seedlings of Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. and Pinus strobus L. to three future climate treatments for southern Quebec, Canada, and evaluated their mortality, growth, and foliage water status responses to soil water availability and atmospheric drought. Using a unique approach, climate treatments emulated droughts of different frequencies, durations, and intensities. Treatments closely simulated one growing season, with changes in air temperature and relative humidity every six hours and daily adjustment in the amount of water delivered to the seedlings. The three species experienced high mortality (75%) in all water-limited treatments compared to a control treatment that provided non-limiting soil moisture (0% mortality). The biomass of the seedlings that survived was 40% lower than that of control seedlings. Our results confirmed that the hydraulic safety margins, defined as the difference between seasonal minimum water potential and xylem water potential leading to 12, 50 and 88% of hydraulic conductivity loss, were good predictors of probability of tree mortality. Therefore, hydraulic safety margins are useful functional traits that can be used to compare the vulnerability of various species to drought and then provide crucial information to practitioners and policymakers to adjust forest management to climate change. We showed that three dominant conifer species of northern temperate forests were highly vulnerable to drought in future climates. Because drought is projected to be a significant threat to forests, understanding potentially adaptive physiological responses to drought, such as hydraulic safety margins of tree seedlings, is important for predicting the response of forest regeneration and composition in warmer and drier climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]