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Background: Calls to action addressing the interconnections between physical (in)activity and the climate crisis are increasing. The current study aimed to investigate public support for policy actions that potentially have co-benefits for physical activity promotion and climate change mitigation. Methods: In 2023, a survey through the Angus Reid Forum was completed by 2507 adults living in Canada. Binary logistic regressions were conducted. Separate models were created to reflect support or opposition to the 8 included policy items. Several covariates were included in the models including age, gender, political orientation, physical activity levels, income, urbanicity climate anxiety, and attitudes surrounding physical activity and climate change. The data were weighted to reflect the gender, age, and regional composition of the country. Results: Most individuals living in Canada strongly or moderately supported all actions (ranging from 71% to 85%). Meeting the physical activity guidelines, higher self-reported income, and scoring high on personal experience of climate change were associated with higher odds of supporting the policy actions related to climate actions. Conclusions: Most adults living in Canada support policies that align with the recommended policy actions related to physical activity and climate change. National campaigns enhancing awareness and understanding of the bidirectional relationship between physical activity and climate change are warranted, and these should consider the consistent demographic differences (eg, gender, age, and political orientation) seen in public support for physical activity-related policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate concern is on the rise in many countries and recent research finds that lifestyle- and behaviour-change could advance climate action; yet, individuals struggle to move their climate concern into action. This is known as the 'awareness-action inconsistency,' 'psychological climate paradox,' or 'values-action gap.' While this gap has been extensively studied, climate action implementation and policy-design seldom sufficiently apply that body of knowledge in practice. This Perspective presents a comprehensive heuristic to account for how individuals bring climate change into their awareness (climate action-logics), how they keep climate change out of their awareness (climate shadow), how social narratives contribute to shaping choices (climate discourses), and how systems and structures influence and constrain agency (climate-action systems). The heuristic is illustrated with an example of 15-Minute Cities in Canada. Understanding the multifaceted dilemma that weighs on people's sense-making and behaviours may help policy-makers and practitioners to ameliorate the climate awareness-action gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023, unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere. The wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO2 and 0.14 Pg CO2 equivalent of other greenhouse gases (GHG) including CH4 and N2O as of 31 August. The wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada's planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 10 years, which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation efforts. The model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport, causing severe PM2.5 pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM2.5 concentration in northwestern China by up to 2 µg m−3. The observed maximum daily mean PM2.5 concentration in New York City reached 148.3 µg m−3, which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years, nearly 10 times that of the air quality guideline (i.e., 15 µg m−3) issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires, the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO2. The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate, potentially accelerating global warming. To better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system, more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian climate service providers offer projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to help inform climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions. CMIP6 includes several "hot" climate models whose sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcings exceeds the likely range inferred from multiple lines of evidence. Global warming estimates assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were reduced by applying observational constraints on the historical rate of warming to the CMIP6 ensemble. This study assesses whether globally constrained CMIP6 projections for Canada are appreciably different from unconstrained projections. Two constraints are considered: one that removes models whose transient climate response lies outside the AR6 assessed range (TCRlikely), and the other that weights models to match the assessed distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECSall). Both constraints lead to appreciably cooler and drier projections than the unconstrained ensemble, with the strongest reductions seen in the upper end of the ensemble range, high-emissions scenario, end-of-century time period, and northern regions of Canada. In this case, constrained projections of annual mean temperature are 2°–3°C cooler than the unconstrained projections, whereas projections of annual total precipitation are typically 20%–40% drier. Appreciable differences are also detected in the ensemble median of temperature extreme indices. Based on these results, it is recommended that a constrained ensemble be considered for regional projections to avoid the "hot model" problem. Alternatively, projections can be communicated conditional on a specified level of global warming, with global constraints then used to inform the timing of the warming level exceedance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada is recognized as a global leader in sustainable forest management. Canadian forests and the forest sector remain vital pillars of the Canadian economy and home to many rural and remote communities. However, climate change is an existential threat to the sustainability of forests and forest-dependent communities. While both direct and indirect threats posed by climate change to Canada's forest sector are now well understood, our understanding of specific forest practices that have emerged from the body of science to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts is not well documented. Through a review of the scientific and grey literature, this study expands our knowledge and operational gaps associated with implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation practices in Canadian forests. The study found a dearth of literature specifically dedicated to reporting on the type of forest practices currently in use across Canada to address mitigation and adaptation. Most reports or studies were published in 2019 or later, with federal and provincial governments being the dominant actors in reporting and monitoring, research, and funding. Across the 15 terrestrial ecozones in Canada, forest practices linked to climate change were reported in 12 ecozones, with most practices reported in the Montane Cordillera located in western Canada. Common forest practices reported include fuel management, assisted migration, enhanced silvicultural activities, and carbon offset projects. We conclude that climate change adaptation/mitigation practices in Canada are in their early stages of implementation. Many practices remain in experimental stages (e.g., genetic trials) or are implemented at a relatively small scale in Canada (e.g., climate-based seed transfer and carbon reserves). The literature suggests that the most mainstream practices associated with climate change mitigation in Canada include tree planting for carbon sequestration and the designation of protected areas to enhance ecosystem resilience. We conclude that despite increasing reports linking climate change benefits with reported forest practices, the reporting in the scientific literature is scarce, poorly reported, and often not grounded in credible evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With its northern location, the exposure and vulnerability of Canada's forest ecosystems to climate change impacts are all too glaring. While there is now an extensive body of literature describing expected climate change impacts and potential responses, studies characterizing the implementation of adaptation and mitigation practices in forest management remain rare in the Canadian forest sector. Using a systematic literature review, we examined reports on forest management practices implemented in response to climate change, specifically focusing on governance and institutional arrangements that either support or limit climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. Our literature sample size of 24 documents suggests that the body of literature reporting on adaptation and mitigation practices in forest management is scarce. Governments remain the dominant actors providing funding and leading the implementation and reporting of climate change adaptation practices, primarily in response to national or international climate change commitments. Forest practices such as enhanced silviculture, assisted migration, and nature-based solutions were the most frequently reported. However, given the scarcity of literature, it is difficult to conclude the scope of climate change adaptation practice uptake in Canada. Barriers such as lack of information/data, inter-jurisdictional knowledge transfer, policy conflicts, forest tenure models, technical capacity gaps, and economic barriers to adaptation need to be overcome to strengthen climate change response in forest management. Better coordination of reporting at the provincial and national levels and improved information flows between private sector organizations and governments are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada has undertaken key commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase adaptation and climate resilience, and realign financial flows, particularly in the country's three successive Nationally Determined Contributions ('NDCs') to the global response to climate change under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Canada and the European Union ('EU') have also launched a new trade agreement, the Canada - EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement ('CETA'), which recognizes that economic development, social development and environmental protection are interdependent and mutually reinforcing components of sustainable development and reaffirms both Canadian and European commitments to promoting trade that contributes to sustainable development for the welfare of present and future generations. In this brief article, several ways in which CETA might contribute to the achievement of Canada's NDC are canvassed. The article discusses whether over time, CETA implementation will clearly commit to climate action and other sustainable development objectives; avoid constraining key laws and policies needed for climate action; intensify cooperation to limit temperature increases, increase the ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change, foster climate resilience and lowGHGemissions development and make finance flows consistent with sustainable development; and enhance trade in more climate and nature positive, sustainable goods and services. If so, the article suggests, CETA has the potential to foster rather than frustrate the Parties' commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, and their work to advance the global Sustainable Development Goals ('SDGs'). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector is responsible for nearly 40% of the total global direct and indirect CO2 emissions. Urban green infrastructure, which includes features such as urban trees, vegetation, green roofs, and green facades, are examples of nature-based solutions often employed as municipal climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This approach offers a range of cost-effective strategies for reducing municipal CO2 emissions and presents compelling public policy co-benefits such as improved urban livability and enhanced environmental conditions. For municipalities to confidently deploy these solutions at a scale necessary to achieve climate benefits, acquiring knowledge of quantifiable and demonstrated outcomes is an essential requirement. The objectives of this paper are to (1) provide a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and limitations of nature-based solutions (NBS) to address the challenge of reducing CO2 emissions; (2) evaluate existing design guidelines and policies as may be available across Canada, and that that support the of implementation of NBS in urban agglomerations; (3) identify knowledge gaps and research needs to address challenges to the implementation of NBS. In this review, suggestions and requirements as presented in these documents are examined while giving due consideration to the scientific evidence available in research papers. It was found that the adoption of NBS can contribute to carbon neutral communities through reduced building energy consumption and carbon sequestration. Supportive guidelines and policies have been developed, or are in development, to promote the implementation of NBS at the city scale, despite challenges in assessing, quantitatively, their impact due to uncertainties in data, methods, and scale. Nonetheless, existing research provides sufficient evidence to qualify the measures and suggestions outlined in the guidelines and policies described in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic emerged against the backdrop of the longer-term climate change crisis and increasing global awareness of the imperative for climate action, disrupting the post-Paris trajectory of climate policy and media coverage of climate change. We examine news media coverage from Canadian legacy newspapers and answer three questions. First, did the COVID-19 pandemic work as a critical event in its impacts on news media coverage of climate change, and if so, in what ways? Second, did media framing of climate change shift in response to this critical event, and if so, in what ways? Third, are there notable differences between national and subnational media frames? We find that COVID-19 is a critical event linked to a period of reduced media coverage of climate change. However, this critical event also opened new spaces for news framing that connects environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this empirical case study is to study and explain the role of public leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Design/methodology/approach: In 2017 and 2018, the authors conducted13 semi-directed interviews with municipal staff and elected officials from three municipalities, a documentary analysis of primary and secondary sources. Interviews and documentation collected were also coded using the software NVIVO 12. The authors compared three municipal case studies: the City of Toronto (Ontario), the City of Guelph (Ontario), and the Town of Bridgewater (Nova Scotia). Findings: The authors found that leadership is a prominent factor explaining the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Municipal climate action is initiated and championed by an individual, elected officials or municipal staff, who lead and engage in the development of policy instruments to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. These leaders facilitate the formulation and implementation of instruments, encourage a paradigm shift within the municipality, overcome structural and behavioural barriers, and foster collaboration around a common vision. Optimal municipal climate leadership occurs when the leadership of elected officials and municipal is congruent, though networks play a significant role by amplifying municipal sustainability leadership. They support staff and elected officials leadership within municipalities, provide more information and funding to grow the capacity of municipalities to develop instruments, to the point that conditions under which municipalities are driving climate action are changing. Research limitations/implications: This paper hopes to contribute to better understand under what conditions municipalities drive change. Originality/value: There is an international scholarly recognition that municipalities should be further explored and considered important actors in the Canadian and international climate change governance. Gore (2010) and Robinson and Gore (2015) highlighted that we are yet to understand the extent to which municipalities are involved in climate governance in Canada. This article directly addresses this gap in the current scholarly literature and explores the expansion of climate municipal leadership with the aspects of interviews. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing recognition for seagrasses' contribution to the functioning of nearshore ecosystems and climate change mitigation. Nevertheless, seagrass ecosystems have been deteriorating globally at an accelerating rate during recent decades. In 2017, research into the condition of eelgrass (Zostera marina) along the eastern coast of James Bay, Canada, was initiated in response to reports of eelgrass decline by the Cree First Nations of Eeyou Istchee. As part of this research, we compiled and analyzed two decades of eelgrass cover data and three decades of eelgrass monitoring data (biomass and density) to detect changes and assess possible environmental drivers. We detected a major decline in eelgrass condition between 1995 and 1999, which encompassed the entire east coast of James Bay. Surveys conducted in 2019 and 2020 indicated limited changes post‐decline, for example, low eelgrass cover (<25%), low aboveground biomass, smaller shoots than before 1995, and marginally low densities persisted at most sites. Overall, the synthesized datasets show a 40% loss of eelgrass meadows with >50% cover in eastern James Bay since 1995, representing the largest scale eelgrass decline documented in eastern Canada since the massive die‐off event that occurred in the 1930s along the North Atlantic coast. Using biomass data collected since 1982, but geographically limited to the sector of the coast near the regulated La Grande River, generalized additive modeling revealed eelgrass meadows are affected by local sea surface temperature, early ice breakup, and higher summer freshwater discharge. Our results caution against assuming subarctic seagrass ecosystems have avoided recent global declines or will benefit from ongoing climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses serious risks to rural communities which rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources. Rural communities are also significant contributors to GHG emissions given the prevalence of agriculture and related activities and are therefore expected to develop courses of action that tackle climate change. This includes either formulating a standalone plan that outlines mitigation and adaptation strategies or integrating these priorities into existing plans. The extent to which municipalities fulfill these planning functions, and how well, has been found to vary considerably from one community to another. In this study, we sought to contribute to knowledge about how well rural municipalities are planning for climate change risks. To this end, we systematically evaluated the contents and quality of rural climate change plans in Ontario (Canada). Using a well-established plan quality evaluation framework, we found that rural plans generally contained strong mechanisms for coordination between departments, and most had outlined specific goals concerning climate change action. By contrast, few plans provided a meaningful fact base to support their goals, many lacked specific policies to guide decision-makers in achieving climate goals, and most contained weak provisions for monitoring and evaluation. After drawing out some key themes from the plan quality analysis, the article concludes by pointing to areas of rural climate change planning that require further attention, and by outlining some areas for further study. • Rural municipal climate change planning is in its infancy in Ontario, Canada. • There is an emphasis on climate mitigation over adaptation. • There is a lack of meaningful fact base to support climate change goals. • Plans lacked specific policies to guide decision-makers in achieving climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Culture & Local Governance / Culture et Gouvernance Locale is the property of Culture & Local Governance, Centre on Governance and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Recent global warming has caused significant changes to the regional climate over Eastern Canada and brought unprecedented challenges to the local communities, such as rising sea level, shrinking sea ice coverage, increasing coastal and inland floods, accelerated coastal erosion, and so on. Although local governments have declared climate emergency in recent years, there is still a lack of real climate actions due to the poor understanding of the future climatic changes over Eastern Canada and how to mitigate and adapt to those changes from a long-term perspective. Here we attempt to fill this gap by developing high-resolution regional climate scenarios for Eastern Canada throughout the twenty-first century under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCP2.6—low, RCP4.5—medium, and RCP8.5—high). The results suggest that the low-emission scenario of RCP2.6 would potentially stabilize the regional climate (i.e., no significant changes in both temperature and precipitation) over Eastern Canada after the continuous warming reaches its peak in the middle of this century. However, an average warming about 1 °C would still be expected from now to the end of this century under RCP2.6, highlighting the importance of preparing for a new climate normal even though strict carbon reduction efforts could be made before 2050. In comparison, both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios would lead to a continuous warming over Eastern Canada with increased total precipitation throughout this century. Most importantly, the warming trend under RCP8.5 is likely to accelerate after 2050, which would potentially cause significant shifts in the precipitation seasonality and bring more climate extremes, such as droughts in August, increasing spring and fall floods, more freezing rains between fall and winter, and more heavy snowfalls in winter. The results from this study can help the local policy makers understand the importance and scientific implications of taking immediate carbon reduction actions and developing long-term climate adaptation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoring degraded ecosystems is an urgent policy priority to regain ecological integrity, advance sustainable land use management, and mitigate climate change. This study examined current legislation and policies supporting forest landscape restoration (FLR) in Canada to assess its capacity to advance restoration planning and efforts. First, a literature review was performed to assess the policy dimension of FLR globally and across Canada. Then, a Canada-wide policy scan using national databases was conducted. While published research on ecological restoration has increased exponentially in Canada and globally since the early 1990s, our results showed that the policy dimensions of FLR remain largely under documented in the scientific literature, despite their key role in implementing effective restoration measures on the ground. Our analyses have identified over 200 policy instruments and show that Canada has developed science-based FLR policies and best practices driven by five main types of land use and extraction activities: (1) mining and oil and gas activities; (2) sustainable forest management; (3) environmental impact assessment; (4) protected areas and parks; and (5) protection and conservation of species at risk. Moreover, FLR policies have been recently added to the national climate change mitigation agenda as part of the nature-based solutions and the net-zero emission strategy. Although a pioneer in restoration, we argue that Canada can take a more targeted and proactive approach in advancing its restoration agenda in order to cope with a changing climate and increased societal demands for ecosystem services and Indigenous rights. Considering the multifunctional values of the landscape, the science–policy interface is critical to transform policy aspirations into realizable and quantifiable targets in conjunction with other land-use objectives and values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (CFPJ) is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article explores how competing discursive and political formations about climate change structure and circulate in social media by mapping a year of climate-related Facebook posts and links by Canadian civil society actors. Drawing upon the concept of connective action, it traces the efficacy and impact of the social media strategies of actors favoring stronger climate action against those aiming to delay or block such action. Distinguishing between self-referential vs network-building connective action and active vs passive types of user engagement, it finds the most significant use of Facebook by Canadian civil society actors was the sharing of mainstream and alternative news sources. Such activity plays a key role in building networked publics around shared perspectives on climate change as well as generating audience subsidies through which users are mobilized to amplify particular news stories, columnists and media outlets. In Canada, conservative actors tend to be more focused upon network building and more effective in producing these subsidies, especially for right-leaning commercial news organizations and alt-right digital outlets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban forests are gaining recognition as a nature-based solution to climate change and other social-environmental issues in cities. Yet, the integration of urban forests may conflict with other climate measures such as urban densification, which may create hostile growing conditions for trees and lead to tree decline or loss. While previous studies have identified conflicts between densification and urban forests, there is a lack of research mapping the relationships among climate action, urban planning, and urban forest policies. This study involved semi-structured interviews with 14 key informants in Metro Vancouver, Canada, a rapidly-densifying region. Twenty-six trade-offs and 24 synergies were identified in five areas/sectors, such as (re)development and infrastructure. While strategic policies often highlighted synergies, policy implementation processes and outcomes often encountered trade-offs due to factors such as limited budgets and low political priority. Notably, most trade-offs and synergies were found in the same areas - (re)development and infrastructure - and shared the same contributing factors, such as political priority of urban forestry, suggesting areas of opportunity to transform trade-offs into synergies through appropriate planning and monitoring. The study also highlighted the need for further research on the interactions and impacts among municipal policies for more effective implementation and outcomes. • The study is among the first attempts to explore policy interactions on climate action, urban planning, and urban forest. • Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants with relevant expertise in cities of Metro Vancouver, Canada. • Results revealed key trade-offs and synergies among policies and practices, especially in development and infrastructure. • Connections between trade-offs and synergies suggest opportunities for compact, climate-proofed, and green cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning and policy are best done through integrated approaches that holistically address multiple sustainability issues. Climate change and biodiversity loss are two of the most significant issues facing our planet. Accordingly, advancements in integrated sustainability planning and policy require a means for examining how certain strategies and actions may align or conflict with these sustainability imperatives. Here, we enhance the knowledge of integrated approaches for addressing sustainability challenges by developing and applying a framework for examining different planning and policy areas in the context of climate action and biodiversity conservation. As a case study, we used wildlife crossing planning and landscape connectivity policy in Canada, which is currently piecemeal, fragmented, and could benefit from an integrated approach. The study was conducted in two stages. First, we developed an analytical framework for examining issues in the context of climate action and biodiversity conservation co-benefits and trade-offs. Then, we applied the framework to wildlife crossing and landscape connectivity issues to elucidate opportunities and challenges for integrated planning and policy. We used a literature review to develop an integrated climate-biodiversity framework (ICBF). ICBF was subsequently applied to wildlife crossing and landscape connectivity planning and policies in Canada. ICBF maps relationships between climate action and biodiversity conservation co-benefits and trade-offs and is organized into six themes: green space, transportation, green infrastructure, food and agriculture, energy, and land management. Applying ICBF to participant interview data produced insights into opportunities and challenges for integrated approaches to wildlife crossing and landscape connectivity by elucidating potential co-benefits and trade-offs such as alignments between stormwater management and aquatic crossings (i.e., co-benefits) and potential issues related to energy development and habitat fragmentation (i.e., trade-offs). ICBF has application beyond wildlife crossings, and its continual use and refinement will result in a better understanding of how to effectively implement integrated approaches and transition toward sustainable development paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study is to estimate the nexus between energy insecurity and energy poverty with the role of climate change and other environmental concerns. We used DEA like WP methods and properties of MCDA, a most common form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate the nexus between constructs. This paper presents a measurement and analysis of G7 countries' energy, economic, social, and environmental performance associated with energy poverty indexes. The study used the multiple, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators, including energy economics and environmental consideration of energy poverty. The net energy consumption of al G7 economies is equal to 34 percent of the entire world along with the net estimate GDP score of around 50 percent. Using DEA modelling and estimation technique, our research presented valuable insights for readers, theorists and policy makers on energy, environment, energy poverty and climate change mitigation. For this reasons, all these indicators combined in a mathematical composite indicator to measure energy, economic, social, and environmental performance index (EPI). Results show that Canada has the highest EPII score, which shows that Canada's capacity to deal with energy self-sufficiency, economic development, and environmental performance is greater than the other G7 countries. France and Italy rank second and third. Japan comes next with 0.50 EPI scores, while the USA has the lowest average EPI score environment vulnerable even though have higher economic development among the G7 group countries. We suggest a policy framework to strengthen the subject matter of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Substitution factors for forest products for the Canadian context were developed. • Substitution factors ranging from 0.51 to 0.91 tC/tC were found. • They will lead to more accurate assessments of the forest GHG mitigation potential. • These factors will help governments to manage forest and fight climate change. Evaluating the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector requires a holistic approach based on forest carbon (C) sequestration, C storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and substitution on markets. High uncertainty is associated with substitution factors, that express avoided fossil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the use of forest-based products in replacement of GHG-intensive materials and fossil fuels. Few studies have focused on the development of substitution factors in Canada, resulting in the use of unrepresentative generic data. Here, we provide a framework to reduce uncertainties related to substitution factors for primary wood products in a Canadian context. A life cycle assessment framework is used to quantify fossil GHG emissions for a baseline and a wood-intensive scenario. For solid product substitution, we focused on the construction sector and analyzed a range of innovative wood buildings with steel and reinforced concrete as alternative materials. We found non-weighted averages of 0.80 tC/tC for sawnwood and 0.81 tC/tC for panels. For energy substitution, we analyzed cases with different specifications on biomass product, facility type and alternative fossil fuel source in non-residential heat production and biofuel transportation sectors. We found a non-weighted average of 0.80 tC/tC for non-residential heat production and 0.51 tC/tC for biofuel transportation, that can be interpreted as 0.91 tC/tC for heavy fuel oil, 0.69 tC/tC for light fuel oil and 0.68 tC/tC for natural gas substitution. These results provide a benchmark for substitution factors in Canada, to help guide forest management strategies for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Innovate a BaPMI method for macro-scale distributed hydrologic modeling. • Apply it to a typical large cold-region watershed, Athabasca River Basin in Canada. • Verify feasibility & advantages in characterizing macro-scale cold-region hydrology. • Quantify parametric & hyperparametric sensitivities for facilitating its applications. • Reveal variabilities of climate-driven cross-scale uppermost hydro-variational effects. At macroscales (e.g., large river basins, nations, continents, or the globe), hydro-hazard mitigation under climate change requires accurate, applicable hydrologic models, especially over cold regions of complicated hydroclimatic relations. As an effort to address such a challenge, we innovate a macroscale distributed hydro-modeling method, Bayesian principal-monotonicity inference (BaPMI), based on climate classification, representative-grids selection, statistical hydrology, surrogates-based Bayesian optimization, and variance-based sensitivity analyses. The method is applied to a typical large cold-region watershed, i.e., Athabasca River Basin in Canada, and reveals a series of findings such as the following representatives. BaPMI shows promising skills in quantitatively characterizing macroscale cold-region hydrology under overall impacts of heterogeneous climates. Bayesian optimization of which hyperparameters are insensitive decreases hydro-modeling computational time by up to 96.3% and, together with climate classification, largely enhances BaPMI applicability while ensuring modeling accuracies. Individual BaPMI hydro-model parameters can explain over ¾ of the variation of hydro-modeling accuracies and, due to their interaction, joint calibration is required for avoiding underestimation of the impacts. Climatic conditions dominating cross-scale uppermost hydrologic variations consist of night temperature (40%), day temperature (38%), and precipitation (22%) for all catchments; all river flows along the mainstem are associated with upstream climatic events such as glacier melts. Climatic impacts decline from upstream to downstream and from summer, spring, winter to autumn; this may relate to tempo-spatial heterogeneity of soil, vegetation, geology, human interference and other non-climatic factors. Without this study, macroscale distributed hydrologic modeling would lack one advanced method (i.e., BaPMI) that can immunize against effects of data uncertainty, subjective judgement and climatic collinearity, adapt to complicated hydroclimatic relations and diverse hydro-variable(s) distributions, reveal cross-scale uppermost hydrologic variations and, through inexpensive computations, enhance hydro-modeling accuracies to avoid climatic-impact underestimation. The findings of this study could facilitate BaPMI applications and advance macroscale (cold-region) hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]