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Background: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been studied at unprecedented levels worldwide. In jurisdictions where molecular analysis was performed on large scales, the emergence and competition of numerous SARS-CoV-2lineages have been observed in near real-time. Lineage identification, traditionally performed from clinical samples, can also be determined by sampling wastewater from sewersheds serving populations of interest. Variants of concern (VOCs) and SARS-CoV-2 lineages associated with increased transmissibility and/or severity are of particular interest. Method: Here, we consider clinical and wastewater data sources to assess the emergence and spread of VOCs in Canada retrospectively. Results: We show that, overall, wastewater-based VOC identification provides similar insights to the surveillance based on clinical samples. Based on clinical data, we observed synchrony in VOC introduction as well as similar emergence speeds across most Canadian provinces despite the large geographical size of the country and differences in provincial public health measures. Conclusion: In particular, it took approximately four months for VOC Alpha and Delta to contribute to half of the incidence. In contrast, VOC Omicron achieved the same contribution in less than one month. This study provides significant benchmarks to enhance planning for future VOCs, and to some extent for future pandemics caused by other pathogens, by quantifying the rate of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs invasion in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of schools in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is controversial, with some claiming they are an important driver of the pandemic and others arguing that transmission in schools is negligible. School cluster reports that have been collected in various jurisdictions are a source of data about transmission in schools. These reports consist of the name of a school, a date, and the number of students known to be infected. We provide a simple model for the frequency and size of clusters in this data, based on random arrivals of index cases at schools who then infect their classmates with a highly variable rate, fitting the overdispersion evident in the data. We fit our model to reports from four Canadian provinces, providing estimates of mean and dispersion for cluster size, as well as the distribution of the instantaneous transmission parameter ß, whilst factoring in imperfect ascertainment. According to our model with parameters estimated from the data, in all four provinces (i) more than 65% of non-index cases occur in the 20% largest clusters, and (ii) reducing instantaneous transmission rate and the number of contacts a student has at any given time are effective in reducing the total number of cases, whereas strict bubbling (keeping contacts consistent over time) does not contribute much to reduce cluster sizes. We predict strict bubbling to be more valuable in scenarios with substantially higher transmission rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was met with rapid development of robust molecular-based detection assays. Many SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests target multiple genetic regions of the virus to maximize detection and protect against diagnostic escape. Despite the relatively moderate mutational rate of SARS-CoV-2, numerous mutations with known negative impact on diagnostic assays have been identified. In early 2021, we identified four samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 with a nucleocapsid (N) gene drop out on Cepheid Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2 assay. Sequencing revealed a single common mutation in the N gene C29200T. Spatiotemporal analysis showed that the mutation was found in at least six different Canadian provinces from May 2020 until May 2021. Phylogenetic analysis showed that this mutation arose multiple times in Canadian samples and is present in six different variants of interest and of concern. The Cepheid testing platform is commonly used in Canada including in remote regions. As such, the existence of N gene mutation dropouts required further investigation. While commercial SARS-CoV-2 molecular detection assays have contributed immensely to the response effort, many vendors are reluctant to make primer/probe sequences publicly available. Proprietary primer/probe sequences create diagnostic 'blind spots' for global SARS-CoV-2 sequence monitoring and limits the ability to detect and track the presence and prevalence of diagnostic escape mutations. We hope that our industry partners will seriously consider making primer/probe sequences available, so that diagnostic escape mutants can be identified promptly and responded to appropriately to maintain diagnostic accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Québec was the Canadian province most impacted by COVID-19, with 401,462 cases as of September 24th, 2021, and 11,347 deaths due mostly to a very severe first pandemic wave. In April 2020, we assembled the Coronavirus Sequencing in Québec (CoVSeQ) consortium to sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Québec to track viral introduction events and transmission within the province. Methods: Using genomic epidemiology, we investigated the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 to Québec. We report 2921 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes in the context of > 12,000 publicly available genomes sampled globally over the first pandemic wave (up to June 1st, 2020). By combining phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses with epidemiological data, we quantify the number of introduction events into Québec, identify their origins, and characterize the spatiotemporal spread of the virus. Results: Conservatively, we estimated approximately 600 independent introduction events, the majority of which happened from spring break until 2 weeks after the Canadian border closed for non-essential travel. Subsequent mass repatriations did not generate large transmission lineages (> 50 sequenced cases), likely due to mandatory quarantine measures in place at the time. Consistent with common spring break and "snowbird" destinations, most of the introductions were inferred to have originated from Europe via the Americas. Once introduced into Québec, viral lineage sizes were overdispersed, with a few lineages giving rise to most infections. Consistent with founder effects, the earliest lineages to arrive tended to spread most successfully. Fewer than 100 viral introductions arrived during spring break, of which 7–12 led to the largest transmission lineages of the first wave (accounting for 52–75% of all sequenced infections). These successful transmission lineages dispersed widely across the province. Transmission lineage size was greatly reduced after March 11th, when a quarantine order for returning travellers was enacted. While this suggests the effectiveness of early public health measures, the biggest transmission lineages had already been ignited prior to this order. Conclusions: Combined, our results reinforce how, in the absence of tight travel restrictions or quarantine measures, fewer than 100 viral introductions in a week can ensure the establishment of extended transmission chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]