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The collapse of ice shelves could expose tall ice cliffs at ice sheet margins. The marine ice cliff instability (MICI) is a hypothesis that predicts that, if these cliffs are tall enough, ice may fail structurally leading to self-sustained retreat. To date, projections that include MICI have been performed with a single model based on a simple parameterization. Here, we implement a physically motivated parameterization in three ice sheet models and simulate the response of the Amundsen Sea Embayment after a hypothetical collapse of floating ice. All models show that Thwaites Glacier would not retreat further in the 21st century. In another set of simulations, we force the grounding line to retreat into Thwaites' deeper basin to expose a taller cliff. In these simulations, rapid thinning and velocity increase reduce the calving rate, stabilizing the cliff. These experiments show that Thwaites may be less vulnerable to MICI than previously thought, and model projections that include this process should be re-evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of sea‐level rise from ice‐sheet shrinkage in a warming world have large uncertainties, linked to limited knowledge of changes at the ocean‐ice sheet interface. This interface most typically is modeled as a grounding line, across which still‐connected ice flows into the ocean to float as an ice shelf, or where icebergs calve from a cliff before the ice begins to float. But, extensive and rapidly increasing evidence shows that this is really a grounding zone, and that processes in this grounding zone omitted from many models could exert major controls on sea‐level rise. Plain Language Summary: Marine‐terminating glaciers flow into the ocean across extensive grounding zones. These kilometers‐long and glacier‐wide zones represent the last broad region of glacier contact with the rock and sediments below before the ice enters the ocean as a floating ice shelf or calved icebergs. Loss of this basal drag along with enhanced basal melting caused by tidally driven seawater intrusion leads to faster outflow and rapid thinning of the overlying ice. As a result of the local thinning, grounding zones retreat inland and sea level rises with more loss of previously grounded ice. Most ice‐sheet models used in sea‐level projections do not include grounding‐zone processes, but rather stop their ice‐ocean interactions at a grounding line. They are thereby omitting important dynamic feedbacks and underestimating future sea‐level contributions from the marine‐based sectors of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Key Points: Tidally modulated seawater intrusion leads to loss of ice‐bed contact as well as significant (maximal) basal melting within grounding zonesThe future dynamics of marine outlet glaciers are ultimately controlled by coupled processes operating within and through grounding zonesDespite the importance of grounding zones to ice‐sheet dynamics, most ice‐sheet models used in sea‐level projections do not include them [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stress state of ice shelves using numerical modeling is studied. An ice shelf is modeled by an elastic plate floating on water and attached to the ice cover at a grounding point. Stress calculations are carried out using the FLAC3D program. The resulting stresses significantly exceed the tensile strength of the glacier during bending. The maximum tensile stresses on the lower surface of the glacier near the grounding point reach 5 × 107 Pa and significantly exceed the maximum strength values of the glacier. The mechanism of rapid transformation of a solid ice shelf into mélange is shown. During the deformation process, vertical displacements (ice ridges) can reach tens of meters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrusion of relatively warm water onto the continental shelf is widely recognized as a threat to Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers grounded below sea level, as enhanced ocean heat increases their basal melt. While the circulation of warm water has been documented on the East Antarctic continental shelf, the modes of warm water transport from the deep ocean onto the shelf are still uncertain. This makes predicting the future responses of major East Antarctic marine-grounded glaciers, such as Totten and Ninnis glaciers, particularly challenging. Here, we outline the key role of submarine canyons to convey southward flowing currents that transport warm Circumpolar Deep Water toward the East Antarctic shelf break, thus facilitating warm water intrusion on the continental shelf. Sediment drifts on the eastern flank of the canyons provide evidence for sustained southward-directed flows. These morpho-sedimentary features thus highlight areas potentially prone to enhanced ocean heat transport toward the continental shelf, with repercussions for past, present, and future glacial melting and consequent sea level rise. Sediment drifts record long-lasting southward flowing currents within submarine canyons, which convey warm Circumpolar Deep Water toward the East Antarctic shelf break, thus facilitating warm water intrusion on the continental shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding grounding line dynamics is critical for projecting glacier evolution and sea level rise. Observations from satellite radar interferometry reveal rapid grounding line migration forced by oceanic tides that are several kilometers larger than predicted by hydrostatic equilibrium, indicating the transition from grounded to floating ice is more complex than previously thought. Recent studies suggest seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may play a role in driving rapid ice loss. Here, we investigate its impact on the evolution of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet model. We compare model results with observed changes in grounding line position, velocity, and ice elevation between 2010 and 2022. We match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning using 3‐km‐long seawater intrusion that drive peak ice melt rates of 50 m/yr; but we cannot obtain the same agreement without seawater intrusion. Including seawater intrusion in glacier modeling will increase the sensitivity to ocean warming. Plain Language Summary: Relatively warm seawater melts marine‐terminating glaciers from below. Recent observations suggest that seawater flows below grounded ice at high tide. The presence of seawater at this boundary, referred to as seawater intrusion, has the potential to increase glacier mass loss. We test this hypothesis on Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet flow model. We run the model to reconstruct the glacier's behavior from 2010 to 2022 with and without seawater intrusion. We compare the results with satellite observations of velocity, grounding line position, and ice thinning. When we use enhanced ice melt rates from kilometer‐scale seawater intrusion, we match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning. When we do not, the model fails to replicate the observations. Seawater intrusion may play a critical role in glacier evolution. Adding this process to ice flow models will increase their sensitivity to ocean warming and projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. Key Points: Ice melt caused by seawater intrusion in the grounding zone explains the observed grounding line retreat of Petermann GlacierWithout seawater intrusion in the grounding zone, we do not replicate the full extent of observed retreatIncluding seawater intrusion in the grounding zone increases glacier mass loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, a wealth of research has been devoted to the detection of crevasses in glaciers and ice sheets via remote sensing and machine learning techniques. It is often argued that remotely sensed damage maps can function as early warning signals for shifts in ice shelf conditions from intact to damaged states and can serve as an important tool for ice sheet modellers to improve future sea level rise predictions. Here, we provide evidence for the Filchner–Ronne and Pine Island ice shelves that remotely sensed damage maps are only weakly related to the ice rate factor field A derived by an ice flow model when inverting for surface velocities. This technique is a common procedure in ice flow models, as it guarantees that any inferred changes in A relate to changes in ice flow measured through observations. The weak relationship found is improved when investigating heavily damaged shear margins, as observed on the Pine Island Ice Shelf; however, even in this setting, this association remains modest. Our findings suggest that many features identified as damage through remote sensing methods are not of direct relevance to present-day ice shelf flow. While damage can clearly play an important role in ice shelf processes and thus be relevant for ice sheet behaviour and sea level rise projections, our results imply that mapping ice damage directly from satellite observations may not directly help improve the representation of these processes in ice flow models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice streams flowing into the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing mass due to changes in oceanic basal melting of their floating ice shelves. Rapid ice‐shelf melting is sustained by the delivery of warm Circumpolar Deep Water to the ice‐shelf cavities, which is first supplied to the continental shelf by an undercurrent that flows eastward along the shelf break. Temporal variability of this undercurrent controls ice‐shelf basal melt variability. Recent work shows that on decadal timescales the undercurrent variability opposes surface wind variability. Using a regional model, we show that undercurrent variability is induced by sea‐ice freshwater fluxes, particularly those north of the shelf break, which affect the cross‐shelf break density gradient. This sea‐ice variability is linked to tropical Pacific variability impacting atmospheric conditions over the Amundsen Sea. Ice‐shelf melting also feeds back onto the undercurrent by affecting the on‐shelf density, thereby influencing shelf‐break density gradient anomalies. Plain Language Summary: The glaciers that flow toward the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing ice faster than most others about the continent. Once these glaciers reach the coast, they extend out onto the ocean surface, forming ice shelves. The rapid loss of ice is caused by changes in melting by relatively warm ocean waters beneath the floating ice shelves. In the Amundsen Sea, a deep ocean current is responsible for delivering warm water from the deep ocean to the ice shelves. We present model results that show that this deep current varies on decadal timescales as a consequence of systematic sea‐ice melt and formation patterns. A faster current drives more rapid ice shelf melting which, via a feedback process, further accelerates the current. Climate variability originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean is responsible for the variability in the sea‐ice, and is therefore also responsible for the effects on melting of the ice shelves. Key Points: In the Amundsen Sea decadal variability of an undercurrent flowing along the shelf break drives decadal variability in ice‐shelf basal meltSea‐ice freshwater fluxes and positive feedbacks from ice‐shelf basal melt drive the undercurrent variabilityTropical Pacific teleconnections induce atmospheric anomalies over the Amundsen Sea which drive the sea‐ice freshwater flux variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are the two largest contributors to sea level rise from Antarctica. Here we examine the influence of basal friction and ice shelf basal melt in determining projected losses. We examine both Weertman and Coulomb friction laws with explicit weakening as the ice thins to flotation, which many friction laws include implicitly via the effective pressure. We find relatively small differences with the choice of friction law (Weertman or Coulomb) but find losses to be highly sensitive to the rate at which the basal traction is reduced as the area upstream of the grounding line thins. Consistent with earlier work on Pine Island Glacier, we find sea level contributions from both glaciers to vary linearly with the melt volume averaged over time and space, with little influence from the spatial or temporal distribution of melt. Based on recent estimates of melt from other studies, our simulations suggest that the combined melt-driven and sea level rise contribution from both glaciers may not exceed 10 cm by 2200, although the uncertainty in model parameters allows for larger increases. We do not include other factors, such as ice shelf breakup, that might increase loss, or factors such as increased accumulation and isostatic uplift that may mitigate loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frontal ablation is responsible for a large fraction of the mass loss from tidewater glaciers. The main contributors to frontal ablation are iceberg calving and submarine melting, with calving often being the largest. However, submarine melting, in addition to its direct contribution to mass loss, also promotes calving through the changes induced in the stress field at the glacier terminus, so both processes should be jointly analysed. Among the factors influencing submarine melting, the formation of a buoyant plume due to the emergence of fresh subglacial water at the glacier grounding line plays a key role. In this study we used Elmer/Ice to develop a 3D glacier dynamics model including calving and subglacial hydrology coupled with a line plume model to calculate the calving front position at every time step. We applied this model to the Hansbreen–Hansbukta glacier–fjord system in southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, where a large set of data are available for both the glacier and the fjord from September 2008 to March 2011. We found that our 3D model reproduced the expected seasonal cycle of advance–retreat. Besides, the modelled front positions were in good agreement with the observed front positions at the central part of the calving front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m for the period from December 2009 to March 2011. But there were regions of the front, especially the eastern margin, that presented major differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the high number and diversity of events in a typical cryoseismic dataset, in particular those recorded on ice sheet margins, it is desirable to use a semi-automated method of grouping similar events for reconnaissance and ongoing analysis. We present a workflow for employing semi-unsupervised cluster analysis to inform investigations of the processes occurring in glaciers and ice sheets. In this demonstration study, we make use of a seismic event catalogue previously compiled for the Whillans Ice Stream, for the 2010–2011 austral summer outlined in Part 1,. We address the challenges of seismic event analysis for a complex wave field by clustering similar seismic events into groups using characteristic temporal, spectral, and polarization attributes of seismic time series with the k -means++ algorithm. This provides the basis for a reconnaissance analysis of a seismic wave field that contains local events (from the ice stream) set in an ambient wave field that itself contains a diversity of signals (mostly from the Ross Ice Shelf). As one result, we find that two clusters include stick-slip events that diverge in terms of length and initiation locality (i.e., central sticky spot and/or the grounding line). We also identify a swarm of high-frequency signals on 16–17 January 2011 that are potentially associated with a surface melt event from the Ross Ice Shelf. Used together with the event detection presented in Part 1, the semi-automated workflow could readily be generalized to other locations and, as a possible benchmark procedure, could enable the monitoring of remote glaciers over time and comparisons between locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In late March 2011, landfast sea ice (hereafter, "fast ice") formed in the northern Larsen B embayment and persisted continuously as multi-year fast ice until January 2022. In the 11 years of fast-ice presence, the northern Larsen B glaciers slowed significantly, thickened in their lower reaches, and developed extensive mélange areas, leading to the formation of ice tongues that extended up to 16 km from the 2011 ice fronts. In situ measurements of ice speed on adjacent ice shelf areas spanning 2011 to 2017 show that the fast ice provided significant resistive stress to ice flow. Fast-ice breakout began in late January 2022 and was closely followed by retreat and breakup of both the fast-ice mélange and the glacier ice tongues. We investigate the probable triggers for the loss of fast ice and document the initial upstream glacier responses. The fast-ice breakup is linked to the arrival of a strong ocean swell event (>1.5 m amplitude; wave period waves >5 s) originating from the northeast. Wave propagation to the ice front was facilitated by a 12-year low in sea ice concentration in the northwestern Weddell Sea, creating a near-ice-free corridor to the open ocean. Remote sensing data in the months following the fast-ice breakout reveals an initial ice flow speed increase (>2 -fold), elevation loss (9 to 11 m), and rapid calving of floating and grounded ice for the three main embayment glaciers Crane (11 km), Hektoria (25 km), and Green (18 km). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding drivers of marine-terminating ice sheet behavior is important for constraining ice contributions to global sea level rise. In part, the stability of marine-terminating ice is influenced by solid Earth conditions at the grounded-ice margin. While the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) contributed significantly to global mean sea level during its final post-Last-Glacial-Maximum (LGM) collapse, the drivers and patterns of retreat are not well constrained. Coastal outcrops in the deglaciated Puget Lowland of Washington State – largely below sea level during glacial maxima, then uplifted above sea level via glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) – record the late Pleistocene history of the CIS. The preservation of LGM glacial and post-LGM deglacial sediments provides a unique opportunity to assess the variability in marine ice sheet behavior of the southernmost CIS. Based on paired stratigraphic and geochronological work, with a newly developed marine reservoir correction for this region, we identify that the late-stage CIS experienced stepwise retreat into a marine environment between 15 000 and 14 000 years before present, consistent with timing of marine incursion into the region reported in earlier works. Standstill of marine-terminating ice for at least 500 years, paired with rapid vertical landscape evolution, was followed by continued retreat of ice in a subaerial environment. These results suggest rapid rates of solid Earth uplift and topographic support (e.g., grounding zone wedges) stabilized the ice margin, supporting final subaerial ice retreat. This work leads to a better understanding of shallow-marine and coastal-ice-sheet retreat and is relevant to sectors of the contemporary Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and marine-terminating outlet glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major outlet glacier in Greenland, lost its protective ice shelf in 2002 and has been speeding up and retreating since. We image its grounding line for the first time with a terrestrial radar interferometer deployed in 2016 and detect its migration at tidal frequencies. The southern half of the glacier develops a floating section (3 km × 3 km) that migrates in phase with the tidal difference, up to a distance of 2.8 km, far more than previously expected. We attribute the migration to kilometer‐scale seawater intrusions, 10–20 cm in height, with the tide. The intrusions reveal that the glacier bed may be up to 800 m deeper than expected on the south side, which illustrates that our knowledge of bed topography remains limited for this glacier. We expect seawater intrusions to cause rapid melt of basal ice and play a major role in the glacier evolution. Plain Language Summary: The transition boundary between grounded glacier ice and floating glacier ice, or grounding line, has never been mapped in much detail on the largest, fastest outlet glaciers of Greenland because available satellite radar imagery does not provide short enough repeat pass data. Here, we use a terrestrial radar interferometer which images the glacier every 2 min to map the grounding line repeatedly with differential interferometry. Surprisingly the glacier develops a small floating section on the south side where the grounding line migrates over considerable distances—0.5 to 2.8 km—during the tidal cycle, which is 10 times farther than previously expected from flotation. We attribute the migration to seawater intrusions over a bed 100–800 m deeper than previously known. Seawater intrusions will carry sufficient ocean heat to melt basal ice vigorously, a factor that has not been incorporated in modeling studies of this glacier. Key Points: We present the first mapping of the grounding line of Jakobshavn Isbr$\ae$, Greenland at ocean tidal frequenciesThe grounding line migrates over kilometers, far more than expected from flotation, which we attribute to kilometer‐size seawater intrusionsSeawater intrusions along a bed several hundred meters deeper than expected must be included in future glacier modeling studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water is melting Thwaites Glacier at the base of its ice shelf and at the grounding zone, contributing to significant ice retreat. Accelerating ice loss has been observed since the 1970s; however, it is unclear when this phase of significant melting initiated. We analyzed the marine sedimentary record to reconstruct Thwaites Glacier's history from the early Holocene to present. Marine geophysical surveys were carried out along the floating ice-shelf margin to identify core locations from various geomorphic settings. We use sedimentological data and physical properties to define sedimentary facies at seven core sites. Glaciomarine sediment deposits reveal that the grounded ice in the Amundsen Sea Embayment had already retreated to within ~45 km of the modern grounding zone prior to ca. 9,400 y ago. Sediments deposited within the past 100+ y record abrupt changes in environmental conditions. On seafloor highs, these shifts document ice-shelf thinning initiating at least as early as the 1940s. Sediments recovered from deep basins reflect a transition from ice proximal to slightly more distal conditions, suggesting ongoing grounding-zone retreat since the 1950s. The timing of ice-shelf unpinning from the seafloor for Thwaites Glacier coincides with similar records from neighboring Pine Island Glacier. Our work provides robust new evidence that glacier retreat in the Amundsen Sea was initiated in the mid-twentieth century, likely associated with climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We observe the evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022, which was in part triggered by warm atmospheric conditions and strong offshore winds. This evacuation of sea ice was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and dynamics of a subset of the ocean-terminating glaciers in the region. We show using satellite measurements that, following a decade of gradual slow-down, Hektoria, Green, and Crane glaciers sped up by approximately 20 %–50 % between February and the end of 2022, each increasing in speed by more than 100 ma-1. Circumstantially, this is attributable to their transition into tidewater glaciers following the loss of their ice shelves after the landfast sea ice evacuation. However, a question remains as to whether the landfast sea ice could have influenced the dynamics of these glaciers, or the stability of their ice shelves, through a buttressing effect akin to that of confined ice shelves on grounded ice streams. We show, with a series of diagnostic modelling experiments, that direct landfast sea ice buttressing had a negligible impact on the dynamics of the grounded ice streams. Furthermore, we suggest that the loss of landfast sea ice buttressing could have impacted the dynamics of the rheologically weak ice shelves, in turn diminishing their stability over time; however, the accompanying shifts in the distributions of resistive stress within the ice shelves would have been minor. This indicates that this loss of buttressing by landfast sea ice is likely to have been a secondary process in the ice shelf disaggregation compared to, for example, increased ocean swell or the drivers of the initial landfast sea ice disintegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae, 79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier has been considered exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies have shown that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar measurements in conjunction with satellite remote-sensing observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of 79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high subglacial channel has grown since ∼ 2010 and has caused surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a -1. Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a -1 over a period of 17 d within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line, where the ice has thinned by 32 % since 1998. We find a heterogeneous distribution of melt rates, likely due to variability in water column thickness and channelization of the ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of 79NG's floating ice tongue near the grounding line over the last 2 decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due to the warming of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new photon-counting laser altimetry satellite ICESat-2 was successfully launched on September 15, 2018 with an unprecedented ice surface elevation measurement accuracy of 2–4 cm. It is meaningful for accurately estimating volumetric changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Cross-validation of different types of data, especially comparison with in-situ data, is important for the ice sheet mass balance results of a new satellite. This paper proposes an elevation-difference method of grid elevation change rate model, based on ICESat-2 ATL11 elevation time series data, to distinguish the linear change trend of ice sheet surface elevation from the elevation change resulting from periodic precipitation. In order to compare the estimated elevation-change rate with the flux computed from in-situ snow stake velocity measurements and GRACE-FO gravity survey data, we made corrections for firn air content, elastic, and glacier isostatic adjustment. Based on the ATL11 data from 2019 to 2023, our results show that the ice sheet change in Basin 11 along the CHINARE traverse is from ~0.019 m yr−1 to ~0.121 m yr−1, and the mass balance in the upstream of the traverse in Basin 11 is ~1.9±0.2 Gt yr−1. It is comparable to ~2.4±1.2 Gt yr−1 from GRACE-FO during the same time period. Furthermore, the flux across traverse-11.9±1.1 Gt yr−1 is comparable to that of ~-9.7±0.9 Gt yr−1 across the same flux gate during 1997–2009 which is calculated based on GNSS-derived ice velocity observations, considering the time period difference and uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adélie‐George V Land in East Antarctica, encompassing the vast Wilkes Subglacial Basin, has a configuration that could be prone to ice sheet instability: the basin's retrograde bed slope could make its marine terminating glaciers vulnerable to warm seawater intrusion and irreversible retreat under predicted climate forcing. However, future projections are uncertain, due in part to limited subglacial observations near the grounding zone. Here, we develop a novel statistical approach to characterize subglacial conditions from radar sounding observations. Our method reveals intermixed frozen and thawed bed within 100 km of the grounding‐zone near the Wilkes Subglacial Basin outflow, and enables comparisons to ice sheet model‐inferred thermal states. The signs of intermixed or near thawed conditions raises the possibility that changes in basal thermal state could impact the stability of Adélie‐George V Land, adding to the region's potentially vulnerable topographic configuration and sensitivity to ocean forcing driven grounding line retreat. Plain Language Summary: East Antarctica's Adélie‐George V Land has been relatively stable over the last few decades. However, this region contains the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which has a downward‐sloping bed inland of the grounding zone. This could make irreversible retreat possible if warming seawater off the coast enters beneath the ice sheet. However, predicting the region's vulnerability is difficult, in part, because there is limited information about the conditions beneath the ice sheet. In this study, we develop a new statistical approach to synthesize radar sounding data and classify the conditions at the ice‐bed interface into frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed, which can then provide comparisons to ice sheet model output. We find that areas near the outflow of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, critical in maintaining the stability of the region, might consist of mixed frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed or near‐thawed conditions on the scale of tens of kilometers across. This finding is important since the extent of basal thaw affects how easily ice can flow or slide over the bed. If parts of the bed are close to thawed, this could make Adélie‐George V Land more sensitive to climate forcing, possibly resulting in mass loss. Key Points: We develop an adaptable statistical framework using radar sounding data to classify the basal thermal state of ice sheetsApplied to the Adélie‐George V Coast, the framework reveals a mix of frozen and thawed‐bed, along with confidence in the classificationsAreas maintaining the region's stability have varied thermal states and we consider how this could increase sensitivity to climate forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geothermal heat flow (GHF) is the dominant factor affecting the basal thermal regime of ice sheet dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare the basal thermal state of the Totten Glacier catchment as simulated by eight different GHF datasets. We use a basal energy and water flow model coupled with a 3D full-Stokes ice dynamics model to estimate the basal temperature, basal friction heat and basal melting rate. In addition to the location of subglacial lakes, we use specularity content of the airborne radar returns as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions and compare the returns with the basal state simulations with different GHFs. Two medium magnitude GHF distribution maps derived from seismic modelling rank well at simulating both cold- and warm-bed regions, the GHFs from Shen et al. (2020) and Shapiro and Ritzwoller (2004). The best-fit simulated result shows that most of the inland bed area is frozen. Only the central inland subglacial canyon, co-located with high specularity content, reaches the pressure melting point consistently in all the eight GHFs. Modelled basal melting rates in the slow-flowing region are generally 0–5 mm yr -1 but with local maxima of 10 mm yr -1 at the central inland subglacial canyon. The fast-flowing grounded glaciers close to the Totten ice shelf are lubricating their bases with meltwater at rates of 10–400 mm yr -1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite radar interferometry data reveals that the grounding line of Petermann Glacier, Greenland migrates by several kilometers during the tidal cycle, bringing pressurized, subsurface, warm ocean waters in regular contact with a large sector of grounded ice. We use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in two dimensions to calculate the ice melt rates as a function of grounding zone (GZ) length and ocean Thermal Forcing (TF). Ice melt rates are found to be higher in the GZ cavity than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity. The melt rates increase sub‐linearly with the length of the GZ and ocean TF. The model results agree well with remote sensing estimates of ice melt. High basal ice melt rates in tidally flushed grounding zones imply that marine‐terminating glaciers are more sensitive to ocean TF than anticipated, which will increase their projected contribution to sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: The traditional view of ice melting in contact with ocean waters is that melt rates drop to zero at the grounding line, which is a semi‐fixed boundary at the junction between grounded ice and the ocean. In reality, the grounding line migrates by kilometers during the tidal cycle, more than 10 times beyond the range expected from hydrostatic equilibrium, which brings warm, saline water in rapid contact with broad sectors of grounded ice. We use an ocean model to calculate the melt rates caused by seawater intrusions. We find that the melt rates in the GZ are higher than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity and increase as the GZ becomes wider and the ocean gets warmer. Ice melt in kilometer‐size grounding zones will reduce the basal resistance to flow and will increase the sensitivity of the glacier flow to ocean warming, hence projections of sea level rise from the glacier will go up. Key Points: First modeling of ice melt rates from seawater intrusions in the kilometer‐size grounding zone (GZ) of Petermann Glacier using an ocean modelModeled melt rates are highest in the GZ and increase linearly with GZ width and ocean thermal forcingHigh melt rates in kilometer‐size grounding zones imply a higher sensitivity of glaciers to ocean warming than anticipated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from -5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the last remaining floating tongues of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), the Petermann Glacier ice shelf (PGIS), is seasonally shielded from warm Atlantic water (AW) by the formation of sea ice arches in the Nares Strait. However, continued decline of the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness suggests that arch formation is likely to become anomalous, necessitating an investigation into the response of PGIS to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. We use a high-resolution unstructured grid 3-D ocean–sea ice–ice shelf setup, featuring an improved sub-ice-shelf bathymetry and a realistic PGIS geometry, to investigate in unprecedented detail the implications of transitions in the Nares Strait sea ice regime, that is, from a thick and landfast sea ice regime to a mobile, and further, a thin and mobile sea ice regime, with regard to PGIS basal melt. In all three sea ice regimes, basal melt near the grounding line (GL) presents a seasonal increase during summer, driven by a higher thermal driving. The stronger melt overturning increases the friction velocity slightly downstream, where enhanced friction-driven turbulent mixing further increases the thermal driving, substantially increasing the local melt. As the sea ice cover becomes mobile and thin, wind and (additionally in winter) convectively upwelled AW from the Nares Strait enter the PGIS cavity. While its effect on basal melting is largely limited to the shallower (<200 m) drafts during winter, in summer it extends to the GL (ca. 600 m) depth. In the absence of an increase in thermal driving, increased melting under the deeper (>200 m) drafts in winter is solely driven by the increased vertical shear of a more energetic boundary layer current. A similar behaviour is noted when transitioning from a mobile to a thin mobile sea ice cover in summer, when increases in thermal driving are negligible and increases in melt are congruent with increases in friction velocity. These results suggest that the projected continuation of the warming of the Arctic Ocean until the end of the 21st century and the accompanying decline in the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness will amplify the basal melt of PGIS, impacting the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier and its contribution to the future GrIS mass loss and sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open ocean areas surrounded by sea ice and maintained by ocean heat, or sensible‐heat polynyas, are linked to key ice‐sheet processes, such as ice‐shelf basal melt and ice‐shelf fracture, when they occur near ice‐shelf fronts. However, the lack of detailed multi‐year records of polynya variability prevent assessing coupling between polynya and frontal dynamics. Here, we present the first multi‐decadal polynya area record (2000–2022) at Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, from thermal and optical satellite imagery. We found substantial interannual variability in polynya area, with consistencies in the timing of polynya opening, maximal extent, and closing. Furthermore, the largest polynya in our record (269 km2) occurred at PIG's western margin just 68 days before iceberg B‐27 calved, suggesting that polynya size and position may influence rifting dynamics. Our new data set provides a pathway to assess coevolving polynya and frontal dynamics, demonstrating the importance of building long‐term, year‐round polynya variability records. Plain Language Summary: Persistent sensible‐heat polynyas are areas of open ocean surrounded by sea ice maintained by ocean heat. These surface features occur near ice‐shelf fronts at the coastal margins of Antarctica and therefore have the potential to impact ice‐shelf stability through heat transfer processes. However, our understanding of long‐term polynya variability remains limited due to the lack of multi‐year records documenting polynya evolution. Here, we use satellite imagery to measure polynya area near Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and build the first multi‐decadal record in Antarctica. We observed a large amount of year‐to‐year area variability from 2000 to 2022, with the largest polynya in our record (269 km2) occurring at the western edge of PIG just 68 days before a large iceberg calved from PIG. This correspondence suggests that polynya size and position may influence iceberg calving. Our new data set provides a pathway to assess potentially coupled ice and ocean processes, demonstrating the importance of building long‐term, year‐round polynya variability records. Key Points: We generated a 22 years record of polynya area at Pine Island Glacier from satellite thermal and optical imageryOur data set shows high variability in sensible‐heat polynya area (0–322 km2) from 2000 to 2022Large, marginal, and persistent sensible‐heat polynyas may reduce ice‐shelf buttressing and contribute to rift initiation and propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. Grounding line discharge is a key component of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we present an estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge from 1996 through to last month. We calculate ice flux at up to 100 m resolution through 16 algorithmically-generated flux gates, which are continuous around Antarctica. We draw on a range of ice velocity and thickness data to estimate grounding line discharge. For ice thickness, we use four bed topography datasets, two firn models and a temporally varying ice surface. For the ice velocity, we utilise a range of publicly-available ice velocity maps at resolutions ranging from 240 x 240 m to 1000 x 1000 m, as well as new, 100 x 100 m monthly velocity mosaics derived from intensity-tracking of Sentinel-1 image pairs, available since October 2014. The pixel-based ice fluxes and ice flux errors are integrated within all available Antarctic ice stream, ice shelf and glacier basins. Our dataset also includes the contributions to discharge from changes in ice thickness due to surface lowering, time-varying firn air content and surface mass change between the flux gates and grounding line. We find that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge increased from 1,990 ± 23 Gt yr-1 to 2,205 ± 18 Gt yr-1 between 1996 and 2023, much of which was due to acceleration of ice streams in West Antarctica but with substantial contributions from ice streams in East Antarctica and glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The uncertainties in our discharge dataset primarily result from uncertain bed elevation and flux gate location, which account for much of difference between our results and previous studies. It is our intention to update this discharge dataset each month, subject to continued Sentinel-1 acquisitions and funding availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The glaciers of North Greenland are hosting enough ice to raise sea level by 2.1 m, and have long considered to be stable. This part of Greenland is buttressed by the last remaining ice shelves of the ice sheet. Here, we show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses, that are dominated by enhanced basal melting rates. Between 2000 and 2020, there was a widespread increase in basal melt rates that closely follows a rise in the ocean temperature. These glaciers are showing a direct dynamical response to ice shelf changes with retreating grounding lines and increased ice discharge. These results suggest that, under future projections of ocean thermal forcing, basal melting rates will continue to rise or remain at high level, which may have dramatic consequences for the stability of Greenlandic glaciers. North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calving front location plays a crucial role in studying ice–ocean interaction, mapping glacier area change, and constraining ice dynamic models. However, relying solely on visual interpretation to extract annual changes in the calving front of ice shelves is a time-consuming process. In this study, a comparative analysis was conducted on the segmentation obtained from fully convolutional networks (FCN), U-Net, and U2-Net models, revealing that U2-Net exhibited the most effective classification. Notably, U2-Net outperformed the other two models by more than 30 percent in terms of the F1 parameter. Therefore, this paper introduces an automated approach that utilizes the U2-Net model to extract the calving front of ice shelves based on a Landsat image, achieving an extraction accuracy of 58 m. To assess the model's performance on additional ice shelves in the polar region, the calving front of the Totten and Filchner ice shelves were also extracted for the past decade. The findings demonstrated that the ice velocity of the Filchner ice shelf exceeded that of the Totten ice shelf. Between February 2014 and March 2015, the majority of the calving fronts along the Filchner Ice Shelf showed an advancing trend, with the fastest-moving front measuring 3532 ± 58 m/yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil and sediment mixing and associated permafrost processes are not widely studied or understood in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. In this study, we investigate the stability and depositional history of near-surface permafrost sediments to ∼ 3 m depth in the Pearse and lower Wright valleys using measured cosmogenic 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles. In Pearse Valley, we estimate a minimum depositional age of ∼ 74 ka for the active layer and paleoactive-layer sediments (< 0.65 m). Combined depth profile modelling of 10 Be and 26 Al gives a depositional age for near-surface (< 1.65 m) permafrost in Pearse Valley of 180 +20/-40 ka, implying that the deposition of permafrost sediments predates MIS 5 advances of Taylor Glacier. Deeper permafrost sediments (> 2.09 m) in Pearse Valley are thus inferred to have a depositional age of > 180 ka. At a coastal, lower-elevation site in neighbouring lower Wright Valley, 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles from a second permafrost core exhibit near-constant concentrations with depth and indicate the sediments are either vertically mixed after deposition or sufficiently young so that post-depositional nuclide production is negligible relative to inheritance. 26Al/10Be concentration ratios for both depth profiles range between 4.0 and 5.2 and are all lower than the nominal surface production rate ratio of 6.75, indicating that prior to deposition, these sediments experienced complex, yet similar, exposure–burial histories. Assuming a single-cycle exposure–burial scenario, the observed 26Al/10Be ratios are equivalent to a total minimum exposure–burial history of ∼ 1.2 Myr. In proximity to the depth profile core site, we measured cosmogenic 10 Be and 26 Al in three granite cobbles from thin, patchy drift (Taylor 2 Drift) in Pearse Valley to constrain the timing of retreat of Taylor Glacier. Assuming simple continuous exposure, our minimum, zero-erosion exposure ages suggest Taylor Glacier partially retreated from Pearse Valley no later than 65–74 ka. The timing of retreat after 65 ka and until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when Taylor Glacier was at a minimum position remains unresolved. The surface cobble ages and permafrost processes reveal Taylor Glacier advances during MIS 5 were non-erosive or mildly erosive, preserving the underlying permafrost sediments and peppering boulders and cobbles upon an older, relict surface. Our results are consistent with U/Th ages from central Taylor Valley and suggest changes in moisture delivery over Taylor Dome during MIS 5e, 5c, and 5a appear to be associated with the extent of the Ross Ice Shelf and sea ice in the Ross Sea. These data provide further evidence of antiphase behaviour through retreat of a peripheral lobe of Taylor Glacier in Pearse Valley, a region that was glaciated during MIS 5. We suggest a causal relationship of cold-based glacier advance and retreat that is controlled by an increase in moisture availability during retreat of sea ice and perhaps the Ross Ice Shelf, as well as, conversely, a decrease during times of sea ice and Ross Ice Shelf expansion in the Ross Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismicity at glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves provides observational constraint on a number of glaciological processes. Detecting and locating this seismicity, specifically icequakes, is a necessary first step in studying processes such as basal slip, crevassing, imaging ice fabric, and iceberg calving, for example. Most glacier deployments to date use conventional seismic networks, comprised of seismometers distributed over the entire area of interest. However, smaller-aperture seismic arrays can also be used, which are typically sensitive to seismicity distal from the array footprint and require a smaller number of instruments. Here, we investigate the potential of arrays and array-processing methods to detect and locate subsurface microseismicity at glaciers, benchmarking performance against conventional seismic-network-based methods for an example at an Antarctic ice stream. We also provide an array-processing recipe for body-wave cryoseismology applications. Results from an array and a network deployed at Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica, show that arrays and networks both have strengths and weaknesses. Arrays can detect icequakes from further distances, whereas networks outperform arrays in more comprehensive studies of a particular process due to greater hypocentral constraint within the network extent. We also gain new insights into seismic behaviour at the Rutford Ice Stream. The array detects basal icequakes in what was previously interpreted to be an aseismic region of the bed, as well as new icequake observations downstream and at the ice stream shear margins, where it would be challenging to deploy instruments. Finally, we make some practical recommendations for future array deployments at glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some of the highest specific mass change rates in Antarctica are reported for the Antarctic Peninsula. However, the existing estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (<70 ∘ S) are either spatially limited or are affected by considerable uncertainties. The complex topography, frequent cloud cover, limitations in ice thickness information, boundary effects, and uncertain glacial–isostatic adjustment estimates affect the ice sheet mass change estimates using altimetry, gravimetry, or the input-output method. Within this study, the first assessment of the geodetic mass balance throughout the ice sheet of the northern Antarctic Peninsula is carried out employing bi-static synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the TanDEM-X satellite mission. Repeat coverages from the austral winters of 2013 and 2017 are employed. Overall, coverage of 96.4 % of the study area by surface elevation change measurements and a total mass budget of -24.1±2.8 Gt a -1 are revealed. The spatial distribution of the surface elevation and mass changes points out that the former ice shelf tributary glaciers of the Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen A and B, and Wordie ice shelves are the hotspots of ice loss in the study area and highlights the long-lasting dynamic glacier adjustments after the ice shelf break-up events. The highest mass change rate is revealed for the Airy–Seller–Fleming glacier system at -4.9±0.6 Gt a -1 , and the highest average surface elevation change rate of -2.30±0.03 m a -1 is observed at Drygalski Glacier. The comparison of the ice mass budget with anomalies in the climatic mass balance indicates, that for wide parts of the southern section of the study area, the mass changes can be partly attributed to changes in the climatic mass balance. However, imbalanced high ice discharge drives the overall ice loss. The previously reported connection between mid-ocean warming along the southern section of the west coast and increased frontal glacier recession does not repeat in the pattern of the observed glacier mass losses, excluding in Wordie Bay. The obtained results provide information on ice surface elevation and mass changes for the entire northern Antarctic Peninsula on unprecedented spatially detailed scales and with high precision and will be beneficial for subsequent analysis and modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For better projections of sea level rise, two things are needed: an improved understanding of the contributing processes and their accurate representation in climate models. A major process is basal melting of ice shelves and glacier tongues by the ocean, which reduces ice sheet stability and increases ice discharge into the ocean. We study marine melting of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue, the 79° North Glacier, using a high‐resolution, 2D‐vertical ocean model. While our fjord model is idealized, the results agree with observations of melt rate and overturning strength. Our setup is the first application of adaptive vertical coordinates to an ice cavity. Their stratification‐zooming allows a vertical resolution finer than 1 m in the entrainment layer of the meltwater plume, which is important for the plume development. We find that the plume development is dominated by entrainment only initially. In the stratified upper part of the cavity, the subglacial plume shows continuous detrainment. It reaches neutral buoyancy near 100 m depth, detaches from the ice, and transports meltwater out of the fjord. Melting almost stops there. In a sensitivity study, we show that the detachment depth depends primarily on stratification. Our results contribute to the understanding of ice–ocean interactions in glacier cavities. Furthermore, we suggest that our modeling approach with stratification‐zooming coordinates will improve the representation of these interactions in global ocean models. Finally, our idealized model topography and forcing are close to a real fjord and completely defined analytically, making the setup an interesting reference case for future model developments. Plain Language Summary: The global increase of sea levels is a consequence of human‐induced climate change. It presents a threat to coastal regions and demands action to protect human life and infrastructure near the coast. Planning protective measures requires projections of sea level rise, computed with climate models. We present an approach to improve the simulation of an important contributor to sea level rise: melting of floating ice shelves by ocean circulation. Our modeling approach uses a vertical model grid that evolves over time. The temporal evolution depends on the density structure of the ocean. Large density differences appear just below an ice shelf, where fresh meltwater mixes with salty seawater. The adaptive grid of our model resolves this mixing process in great detail. This is important for an accurate computation of the melt rate and enables us to study in depth the ice shelf–ocean interactions. We study them at the glacier tongue of the 79° North Glacier, which is Greenland's largest ice shelf. The physical understanding gained from our simulations is also applicable to other floating glacier tongues and ice shelves. We suggest that using the presented model technique in global ocean models can improve projections of melting and sea level rise. Key Points: Melting of the 79° North Glacier ice tongue by turbulent ocean currents is studied with an idealized 2D‐vertical fjord modelThe subglacial plume behaves like an entraining plume close to the grounding line and like a detraining gravity current further downstreamA vertical resolution finer than 1 m is achieved in the subglacial plume by using adaptive vertical coordinates that zoom to stratification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula's widespread glacier retreat and ice shelf collapse have been attributed to atmospheric and oceanic warming. Following the initial post-collapse period of retreat, several former tributary glaciers of the Larsen A and B ice shelves have been slowly re-advancing for more than a decade. Here, we use a flowline model of Crane Glacier to gauge the sensitivity of former tributary glaciers to future climate change following this period of long-term dynamic adjustment. The glacier's long-term geometry and speed changes are similar to those of other former Larsen A and B tributaries, suggesting that Crane Glacier is a reasonable representation of regional dynamics. For the unperturbed climate simulations, discharge remains nearly unchanged in 2018–2100, indicating that dynamic readjustment to shelf collapse took ~15 years. Despite large uncertainties in Crane Glacier's past and future climate forcing, a wide range of future climate scenarios leads to a relatively modest range in grounding line discharge (0.8–1.5 Gt a−1) by 2100. Based on the model results for Crane, we infer that although former ice shelf tributaries may readvance following collapse, similar to the tidewater glacier cycle, their dynamic response to future climate perturbations should be less than their response to ice shelf collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper Part 1,. In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mma-1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mma-1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial hydrology is an important component of the ice dynamic system in Antarctica but is challenging to investigate due to the large spatial scales of the catchment systems, the ice thickness, and remote location. Here I discuss key discoveries about Antarctic subglacial hydrology from the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model, including the presence of long, often high-pressure, subglacial channels. These channels pump tens of cubic metres per second of freshwater into ice-shelf cavities and directly affect melt rates at the critical grounding zone regions. Future ice dynamics and ice-shelf cavity models should take subglacial hydrology into account if they are to accurately predict future behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over recent decades in response to enhanced oceanic forcing. Overlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin, it has been referred to as the "weak underbelly" of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is drained by several major outlet glaciers. Despite their potential importance, few of these glaciers have been studied in detail. This includes the six outlet glaciers which drain into Vincennes Bay, a region recently discovered to have the warmest intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) ever recorded in East Antarctica. Here, we use satellite imagery; differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR); and remotely sensed datasets of ice-surface velocity, ice-surface elevation and grounding line position to investigate ice dynamics between 1963 and 2022. Our results support previous observations of extensive grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, measured at 18.6 km between 1996 and 2020. The persistent grounding line retreat, averaging 0.8 km yr -1 , places Vanderford Glacier as the fastest retreating glacier in East Antarctica, and the third fastest in Antarctica, across decadal timescales. Such rapid retreat is consistent with the hypothesis that warm mCDW is able to access deep cavities formed below the Vanderford Ice Shelf, driving high rates of basal melting close to the grounding line. With a retrograde slope observed inland along the Vanderford Trench, such oceanic forcing may have significant implications for the future stability of Vanderford Glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica's floating ice shelves modulate discharge of grounded ice into the ocean by providing a backstress. Ice shelf thinning and grounding line retreat have reduced this backstress, driving rapid drawdown of key unstable areas of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to sea-level rise. If ice shelf loss continues, it may initiate irreversible glacier retreat through the marine ice sheet instability. Identification of areas undergoing significant change requires knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns in recent ice shelf loss. We used 26 years (1992–2017) of satellite-derived Antarctic ice shelf thickness, flow, and basal melt rates to construct a time-dependent dataset of ice shelf thickness and basal melt on a 3 km grid every 3 months. We used a novel data fusion approach, state-of-the-art satellite-derived velocities, and a new surface mass balance model. Our data revealed an overall pattern of thinning all around Antarctica, with a thinning slowdown starting around 2008 widespread across the Amundsen, Bellingshausen, and Wilkes sectors. We attribute this slowdown partly to modulation in external ocean forcing, altered in West Antarctica by negative feedbacks between ice shelf thinning rates and grounded ice flow, and sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry and basal melting. In agreement with earlier studies, the highest rates of ice shelf thinning are found for those ice shelves located in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors. Our study reveals that over the 1992–2017 observational period the Amundsen and Bellingshausen ice shelves experienced a slight reduction in rates of basal melting, suggesting that high rates of thinning are largely a response to changes in ocean conditions that predate our satellite altimetry record, with shorter-term variability only resulting in small deviations from the long-term trend. Our work demonstrates that causal inference drawn from ice shelf thinning and basal melt rates must take into account complex feedbacks between thinning and ice advection and between ice shelf draft and basal melt rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceanic forcing of basal melt under floating ice shelves in Greenland and Antarctica is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate ice sheet modelling. We use a high-resolution, nonhydrostatic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to investigate basal melt rates and melt-driven circulation in the Sherard Osborn Fjord under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. The control model configuration, based on the first-ever observational survey by Ryder 2019 Expedition, yielded melt rates consistent with independent satellite estimates. A protocol of model sensitivity experiments quantified the response to oceanic thermal forcing due to warming Atlantic Water and to the buoyancy input from the subglacial discharge of surface fresh water. We found that the average basal melt rates show a nonlinear response to oceanic forcing in the lower range of ocean temperatures, while the response becomes indistinguishable from linear for higher ocean temperatures, which unifies the results from previous modelling studies of other marine-terminating glaciers. The melt rate response to subglacial discharge is sublinear, consistent with other studies. The melt rates and circulation below the ice tongue exhibit a spatial pattern that is determined by the ambient density stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvements in the resolution of sea-floor mapping techniques have revealed extremely regular, sub-metre-scale ridge landforms produced by the tidal flexure of ice-shelf grounding lines as they retreated very rapidly (i.e. at rates of several kilometres per year). Guided by such novel sea-floor observations from Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, we present three mathematical models for the formation of these corrugation ridges at a tidally migrating grounding line (that is retreating at a constant rate), where each ridge is formed by either constant till flux to the grounding line, till extrusion from the grounding line, or the resuspension and transport of grains from the grounding-zone bed. We find that both till extrusion (squeezing out till like toothpaste as the ice sheet re-settles on the sea floor) and resuspension and transport of material can qualitatively reproduce regular, delicate ridges at a retreating grounding line, as described by sea-floor observations. By considering the known properties of subglacial sediments, we agree with existing schematic models that the most likely mechanism for ridge formation is till extrusion at each low-tide position, essentially preserving an imprint of the ice-sheet grounding line as it retreated. However, when realistic (shallow) bed slopes are used in the simulations, ridges start to overprint one another, suggesting that, to preserve the regular ridges that have been observed, grounding line retreat rates (driven by dynamic thinning?) may be even higher than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seafloor depths under the Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue have not been directly measured, despite their importance for understanding ocean circulation and ice shelf change. We model the bathymetry underneath the floating ice and surrounding ocean using airborne gravity data. Our model is constrained by few ship‐based seafloor measurements near the ice front and by ice‐base measurements over areas of grounded ice from radar data. Localized basins (∼1,400 m deep) are found beneath both ice shelves. The shallowest modeled bathymetry (∼200 m) represents the offshore extension of Cape Freshfield. Near the grounding line, seafloor depths are found to be deeper than the observed depth of the modified Circumpolar Deep water in the region (<350 m), key factor for basal melt analyses. From transit flight gravity anomalies, we suggest the relocation of the mapped edge of the continental shelf and a narrowing of the Cook Shelf Depression. Plain Language Summary: The knowledge of how deep the ocean floor is under the floating ice shelves that connect to grounded ice sheets, is crucial for understanding how ocean water circulates and interacts with the overlying ice. We present a new bathymetric model of the seafloor beneath two ice shelves located in East Antarctica: Cook Ice Shelf and Ninnis Glacier Tongue. Both ice shelves are inaccessible to ships due to heavy sea ice conditions, so the data used in our model were collected from airborne surveys. Our bathymetry model shows new information on the depth and shape of the seafloor that will help understanding the ocean circulation in the area and how this might impact ice thickness changes. Key Points: High resolution bathymetry model of Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis Glacier Tongue, and surrounding open ocean from airborne gravity inversionNew bathymetry model improves the understanding of water pathways between the ice shelves and the continental shelf edgeTransit flight gravity anomalies suggest relocation of the edge of the continental shelf northwards of the currently attributed position [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thwaites Ice Shelf (TWIS), the floating extension of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is changing rapidly and may completely disintegrate in the near future. Any buttressing that the ice shelf provides to the upstream grounded Thwaites glacier will then be lost. Previously, it has been argued that this could lead to onset of dynamical instability and the rapid demise of the entire glacier. Here we provide the first systematic quantitative assessment of how strongly the upstream ice is buttressed by TWIS and how its collapse affects future projections. By modeling the stresses acting along the current grounding line, we show that they deviate insignificantly from the stresses after ice shelf collapse. Using three ice‐flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years. Plain Language Summary: As ice is lost, global sea levels rise. Currently glaciers and ice sheets contribute about half of observed sea level rise (SLR). Some ice is lost through surface melting, but sea levels can also be impacted by ice that flows directly into the ocean. This loss of ice, from the grounded interior into the surrounding ocean, is particularly important for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. There the grounded sections of the ice sheet are sometimes surrounded by floating seaward extensions referred to as ice shelves. These ice shelves can restrict, that is, buttress, upstream flow. Here we estimate the buttressing provided to one of the largest and most dynamical glaciers of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Thwaites Glacier. The glacier is currently abutted by an ice shelf, which has become progressively smaller and weaker over the last few decades. It has been suggested that a disintegration of the ice shelf might lead to greatly enhanced ice flow. However, we find that the ice shelf does not significantly buttress upstream flow, and removing the ice shelf has little effect on SLR over the next 50 years. Key Points: Thwaites Ice Shelf provides limited buttressing to the grounded upstream Thwaites GlacierRemoval of the ice shelf changes the contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise by at most a few millimeters over 50 yearsObservations and modeling suggest that Thwaites Glacier is currently unsteady and stable [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a conceptual model, we examine how hydraulically controlled exchange flows in silled fjords affect the relationship between the basal glacier melt and the features of warm intermediate Atlantic Water (AW) outside the fjords. We show that an exchange flow can be forced to transit into the hydraulic regime if the AW interface height decreases, the AW temperature increases, or the production of glacially modified water is boosted by subglacial discharge. In the hydraulic regime, the heat transport across the sill becomes a rate-limiting factor for the basal melt, which is suppressed. An interplay between processes near the ice–ocean boundary and the hydraulically controlled exchange flow determines the melt dynamics, and the sensitivity of the basal melt to changes in the AW temperature is reduced. The model results are discussed in relation to observations from the Petermann, Ryder, and 79 ∘ N glaciers in northern Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Totten Glacier is a fast‐moving East Antarctic outlet with the potential for significant future sea‐level contributions. We deployed four autonomous phase‐sensitive radars on its ice shelf to monitor ice‐ocean interactions near its grounding zone and made active source seismic observations to constrain gravity‐derived bathymetry models. We observe an asymmetry in basal melting with mean melt rates along the grounding zone differing by up to 20 m/a. Our new bathymetry model reveals that this melt rate asymmetry coincides with an asymmetry in water column thickness and that the low‐melting ice‐shelf portion is shielded from the main cavity circulation. A 2‐year record yields year‐to‐year melt rate variability of 7–9 m/a with no seasonal cycle. Our results highlight the key role of bathymetry near grounding lines for accurate modeling of ice‐shelf melt, and the importance of sustained multi‐year monitoring, especially at ice‐shelf cavities where the dominant melt rate drivers vary primarily inter‐annually. Plain Language Summary: The point were the Antarctic Ice Sheet goes afloat on the ocean represents a critical region, where minor variations in melt rates can impact glacier flow and influence the rate of sea‐level rise. East Antarctica's Totten Glacier holds the potential to raise global sea level by several meters. Therefore, to understand the conditions it is exposed to, we measured melt rates for 2 years in several key locations near the point where the ice first touches the ocean. Our new measurements of the shape of the Totten Ice Shelf cavity help explain an observed spatial pattern of basal melting and together with local melt rate data resolve a disagreement between existing melt rate estimates from remote‐sensing methods. Key Points: Totten Glacier melt rates vary spatially between 0 and over 20 m/a; differences are explained by water column thickness variations from updated bathymetryTemporal melt rate variability is primarily inter‐annual; melt rates differ by 7–9 m/a over two observed years and there is no clear seasonal cycleContrary to previous findings, we find no topographic barriers to the intrusion of warm water to the Totten Glacier grounding zone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the ocean waters surrounding Greenland plays a major role in driving glacier retreat and the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise. The melt rate at the junction of the ocean with grounded ice—or grounding line—is, however, not well known. Here, we employ a time series of satellite radar interferometry data from the German TanDEM-X mission, the Italian COSMO-SkyMed constellation, and the Finnish ICEYE constellation to document the grounding line migration and basal melt rates of Petermann Glacier, a major marine-based glacier of Northwest Greenland. We find that the grounding line migrates at tidal frequencies over a kilometer-wide (2 to 6 km) grounding zone, which is one order of magnitude larger than expected for grounding lines on a rigid bed. The highest ice shelf melt rates are recorded within the grounding zone with values from 60 ± 13 to 80 ± 15 m/y along laterally confined channels. As the grounding line retreated by 3.8 km in 2016 to 2022, it carved a cavity about 204 m in height where melt rates increased from 40 ± 11 m/y in 2016 to 2019 to 60 ± 15 m/y in 2020 to 2021. In 2022, the cavity remained open during the entire tidal cycle. Such high melt rates concentrated in kilometer-wide grounding zones contrast with the traditional plume model of grounding line melt which predicts zero melt. High rates of simulated basal melting in grounded glacier ice in numerical models will increase the glacier sensitivity to ocean warming and potentially double projections of sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream has recently seen significant change to its floating margins and has been identified as vulnerable to future climate warming. Inflow of warm Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the continental shelf has been observed in the vicinity of the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79 ∘ N) Glacier calving front, but AIW penetration deep into the ice shelf cavity has not been observed directly. Here, we report temperature and salinity measurements from profiles in an epishelf lake, which provide the first direct evidence of AIW proximal to the grounding line of 79 ∘ N Glacier, over 50 km from the calving front. We also report evidence for partial un-grounding of the margin of 79 ∘ N Glacier taking place at the western end of the epishelf lake. Comparison of our measurements to those close to the calving front shows that AIW transits the cavity to reach the grounding line within a few months. The observations provide support for modelling studies that infer AIW-driven basal melt proximal to the grounding line and demonstrate that offshore oceanographic changes can be rapidly transmitted throughout the sub-ice-shelf cavity, with implications for near-future stability of the ice stream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We coupled together high-resolution versions of the ocean–sea ice model NEMO and the ice sheet model BISICLES configured to the Totten Glacier area and ran a series of simulations over the recent past (1995–2014) and under warming conditions (2081–2100; SSP4-4.5) with NEMO in stand-alone mode and with the coupled model to assess the effects of the coupling. During the recent past, the ocean–ice sheet coupling has increased the time-averaged value of the basal melt rate in both the Totten and Moscow University ice shelf cavities by 6.7 % and 14.2 % , respectively. The relationship between the changes in ice shelf thickness and ice shelf basal melt rate suggests that the effect of the coupling is not a linear response to the melt rate but rather a more complex response, driven partly by the dynamical component of the ice sheet model. The response of the ice sheet–ocean coupling due to the ocean warming is a 10% and 3% basal melt rate decrease in the Totten and Moscow University ice shelf cavities, respectively. This indicates that the ocean–ice sheet coupling under climate warming conditions dampens the basal melt rates. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating ocean–ice sheet coupling in climate simulations, even over short time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have identified widespread vulnerable ice shelf regions in Antarctica which are both highly buttressed and susceptible to crevasse hydrofracturing, raising concern for potential crevasse driven ice‐shelf collapse and future sea level rise. Here, we employ the finite element ice flow model, Úa, to investigate whether crevasses which have propagated through the entire ice column have a significant impact on upstream flow and quantify their contribution to sea level rise. We find a large variability in the response of ice shelves to this perturbation, with changes in grounding line flux as large as 155% for the Filchner‐Ronne and 46% for the Ross, when compared to the present day. Crevasses located close to the grounding lines contribute most of this change. When compared to a second perturbation in which ice shelves are completely removed, however, the response is relatively small for all modeled ice shelves. Plain Language Summary: In the last two decades, many ice shelves in Antarctica have disintegrated through the process of ice shelf thinning and calving. These processes reduce the resistance that ice shelves exert on upstream glaciers, increasing their mass flow and causing sea level to rise. In this work, we used a sophisticated model to quantify the maximum possible impact that crevasses developed throughout the ice shelf thickness would have on upstream glaciers' flow. We find that in all cases, fully propagated crevasses cause an increase in sea level rise, with Filchner & Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves having the largest contributions. The effect on upstream glaciers is dominated by crevasses located in grounded zone regions, where the ice shelf is thickest, and the provided back‐stress is highest. However, when compared to other simulations in which all floating ice is disintegrated, the effect of crevasse propagation is minimal. Key Points: The instantaneous vertical propagation of pre‐existing crevasses on major Antarctic ice shelves increases the mass flux of upstream glaciersThese flux changes are highly variable among ice shelves, with the largest effects occurring at the Filchner & Ronne and Ross Ice ShelvesCrevasses located near the main grounding lines are responsible for the majority of these flux changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frontal position of an ice shelf is an important parameter for ice dynamic modelling, the computation of mass fluxes, mapping glacier area change, calculating iceberg production rates and the estimation of ice discharge to the ocean. Until now, continuous and up-to-date information on Antarctic calving front locations is scarce due to the time-consuming manual delineation of fronts and the previously limited amount of suitable earth observation data. Here, we present IceLines, a novel data set on Antarctic ice shelf front positions to assess calving front change at an unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution. More than 19,400 calving front positions were automatically extracted creating dense inter- and intra-annual time series of calving front change for the era of Sentinel-1 (2014-today). The calving front time series can be accessed via the EOC GeoService hosted by DLR and is updated on a monthly basis. For the first time, the presented IceLines data set provides the possibility to easily include calving front dynamics in scientific studies and modelling to improve our understanding about ice sheet dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]