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Background: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed., Methods: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels., Results: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection., Conclusions: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background While prior studies have suggested a role for norovirus gastroenteritis in contributing to severe morbidity and mortality, the importance of norovirus as a causal pathogen for hospitalization and mortality remains poorly understood. We estimated the effect of laboratory-confirmed norovirus infection on hospitalization and mortality among a national cohort of veterans who sought care within the Veterans Affairs health care system. Methods We analyzed electronic health record data from a cohort study of adults who were tested for norovirus within the Veterans Affairs system between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2018. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) for hospitalization and mortality were estimated using log-binomial regression models, adjusting for age, Clostridioides difficile , underlying medical conditions, and nursing home residence. Results In total, 23 196 veterans had 25 668 stool samples tested for norovirus; 2156 samples (8.4%) tested positive. Testing positive for norovirus infection, compared with testing negative, was associated with a slight increased risk of hospitalization (aRR, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.21]) and a significant increased risk of mortality within 3 days after the norovirus test (2.14 [1.10–4.14]). The mortality aRR within 1 week and 1 month were reduced to 1.40 (95% confidence interval,.84–2.34) and 0.97 (.70–1.35), respectively. Conclusions Older veterans with multiple comorbid conditions were at a slight increased risk of hospitalization and significant increased risk of mortality in the 3 days after a norovirus-positive test, compared with those testing negative. Clinicians should be aware of these risks and can use these data to inform clinical management for veterans with norovirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]