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"Short-term load forecasting (STLF)" is increasingly significant because of the extensive use of distributed energy resources, the incorporation of intermitted RES, and the implementation of DSM. This paper provides a novel ensemble forecasting model with wavelet transform for the STLF depending on the decomposition principle of load profiles. The model can effectively capture the portion of daily load profiles caused by seasonal variations. The results indicate that it is possible to improve STLF accuracy with the proposed method. The proposed approach is tested with the data taken from Ontario's electricity market in Canada. The results show that the proposed technique performs well in-terms of prediction when compared to existing traditional and cutting-edge methods. The performance of the model was validated with different datasets. Moreover, this approach can provide accurate load forecasting using ensemble models. Therefore, utilities and smart grid operators can use this approach as an additional decision-making tool to improve their real-time decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments have implemented different interventions and response models to combat the spread of COVID-19. The necessary intensity and frequency of control measures require us to project the number of infected cases. Three short-term forecasting models were proposed to predict the total number of infected cases in Canada for a number of days ahead. The proposed models were evaluated on how their performance degrades with increased forecast horizon, and improves with increased historical data by which to estimate them. For the data analyzed, our results show that 7 to 10 weeks of historical data points are enough to produce good fits for a two-weeks predictive model of infected case numbers with a NRMSE of 1% to 2%. The preferred model is an important quick-deployment tool to support data-informed short-term pandemic related decision-making at all levels of governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty modeling of renewable energy sources, load demand, electricity price, etc. create a high volume of data in smart grids. Accordingly, in this article, a precise forecasting method based on a deep learning concept with microclustering (MC) task is presented. The MC method is structured based on hybrid unsupervised and supervised clustering tasks by K-means and Gaussian support vector machine, respectively. In the proposed method, the input data sequence is clustered by the MC task, and then the forecasting process is employed. By applying the MC, input data in each hour are categorized into different groups, and a distinctive forecasting unit is allocated to each one. In this way, more clusters and forecasting networks are earmarked for the hours with higher fluctuation rates. The bi-directional long short-term memory (B-LSTM), which is one of the newest recurrent artificial neural networks, is proposed as the forecasting unit. The B-LSTM has bidirectional memory—feedforward and feedback loops—that helps us to investigate both previous and future hidden layers data. The optimal number of clusters in each hour is determined based on the Davies–Bouldin index. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, in this study, three forecasting tasks including the wind speed, load demand, and electricity price are studied in different periods using the Ontario province, Canada, data set. The results are compared with other benchmarking methods to verify the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed method. In fact, the proposed method, which is equipped with the MC technique and B-LSTM networks, significantly promotes the forecasting results, especially in spike points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]