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With the development of the market economy, agricultural trade has become more and more significant for the development of the agricultural economy, which has triggered people's further thinking and exploration on the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions. This paper takes the measurement of trade implied carbon as the carbon dioxide emission index under the impact of agricultural trade and analyzes the impact of trade implied carbon and implied carbon balance on carbon emission. Taking the impact of Sino-US agricultural trade as an empirical background, this paper measures the impact of environmental changes in agricultural trade opening on China's agricultural development and its carbon emissions, so as to predict changes in China's regional agricultural carbon emissions performance. After calculation, it is found that the scale of China's exports has decreased by 0.089%, which is lower than the decline of 0.361% in the United States. The trade conflict has a significant impact on China's import and export structure. Under the scenario of mutual tariffs on agricultural products, China's exports to the United States are expected to decrease by 6.28%, while China's imports from the United States decreased by 13.02%. The Sino-US agricultural trade dispute will reduce China's carbon emissions by 0.013% and the United States' carbon emissions by 0.024%, which is related to the negative impact on the economy. Improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is not only the need for the green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy but also conducive to improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses economics research and teaching frameworks in the United States by examining how knowledge is produced; the strengths and flaws of heterodox economic theory; and how students are trained, especially for careers in economic policy. We challenge the meaning of established terminology such as ‘heterodoxy’ and ‘mainstream.’ Three major reasons are suggested for the disappointing reality that pluralist economics among academic institutions, the broader public, and a new generation of economists has not happened: 1) neoclassical hegemony; 2) weakness in heterodox theory, and 3) rigidity of pedagogy and training in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the responsiveness of renewable energy production (REP) to fluctuations in geopolitical risks, oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It applies a cross-quantilogram framework to examine monthly data of the US economy for the period of 1986–2022. The findings illustrate the asymmetric effect of historical geopolitical risk (GPRH) on REP under long memory. The findings also hold after different subcategories of GPRH, including geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts, are considered. A positive shock in GPRH has the most decisive positive impact on REP when the policies are driven by both energy security and environmental commitments. A positive shock in GPRH can negatively impact REP when policies are driven by energy security causes only. EPU exerts strong negative effects on REP in bearish and bullish states of the market under medium and long memory across different measures of EPU. Dynamic connectedness analysis applying TVP-VAR method between pairwise variables indicates that net REP is a volatility receiver to the changes in GPRH, its subcomponents, oil prices and different measures of EPU. [Display omitted] • Application of cross-quantilogram approach to US monthly data during 1986–2022. • Responsiveness of renewable energy production to historical geopolitical risk. • A positive shock in GPRH has asymmetric effects on REP in long memory. • This nexus is sensitive to the motivation of energy policies in US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic crises can be analyzed as part of the economic cycle and from different theoretical perspectives. The article considers economic crises or recessions, in general, as capitalism's own mechanisms to alleviate its contradictions and restore, at least partially, the previous accumulated imbalances. The period 1970 to 2020 covers eight economic crises, some of which determine changes in the internal structure, economic policy trends and the functioning of the U.S. economy, as the main center of the world economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the set of economic crises of the last fifty years in a panoramic manner, to evaluate them as part of the process of major economic transformations and associated economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term Load Forecasting (LTLF) plays a vital role in the planning of electric utilities. In the long run, utilities face various uncertainties caused by economic and environmental factors. These uncertainties have made LTLF more complex and inaccurate, thus, amplifying financial risks of utilities. A potent contributor to such losses in LTLF accuracy is economic shocks. This study proposes two probabilistic Time-Varying (TV) approaches to capture such shocks in LTLF and minimise accuracy loss, namely TV-XGB-X and TV-PR, and their combinations considering economic policy uncertainty. Both eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Polynomial Regression (PR) are extended to include the long-run TV effects of economic shocks as eXogeneous predictors in this paper. These models and their combinations are compared with various non-TV approaches through experiments on the monthly electricity consumption of eight energy-intensive states in the United States. The results reveal that the proposed combined approaches outperform stand-alone models on all datasets. The findings of this study can help utilities in hedging financial risks under shocks. • Proposed Time-Varying framework to detect and capture economic shocks for LTLF. • Framework includes probabilistic TV-PR, TV-XGB-X, their variants and combinations. • Compared the point and probabilistic accuracies of proposed and benchmark models. • Proposed models outperform existing benchmark models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]