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Aim: Species responses to global warming will depend on intraspecific diversity, yet studies of factors governing biogeographic patterns of variability are scarce. Here, we investigate the evolutionary processes underlying genetic and phenotypic diversity in the flightless and cold‐adapted grasshopper Sigaus piliferus, and project its suitable space in time. Location: Te Ika‐a‐Māui Aotearoa—North Island of New Zealand. Methods: We used mitochondrial sequences to investigate population connectivity and demographic trends using phylogeographic tools and neutrality statistics. Metric data were used to document phenotypic variation using naïve clustering. We used niche metrics to assess intraspecific niche variation, and niche modelling to investigate suitability under past and future scenarios. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization explored the processes contributing to phenotypic differentiation among grasshopper populations. Results: Niche models and demographic analyses suggest suitable space for this grasshopper was more restricted during glacial than interglacial stages. Genealogical relationships among ND2 haplotypes revealed a deep north–south split partly concordant with phenotypic and niche variation, suggesting two ecotypes that have mixed during recolonisation of the central volcanic region. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization indicate a link between climate and phenotypic differentiation inferred from leg and pronotum dimensions but not pronotum shape. Niche projections predict severe habitat reduction due to climate warming. Main conclusions: The current distribution and intraspecific diversity of S. piliferus reflect complex biogeographical scenarios consistent with Quaternary climates and volcanism. Phenotypic divergence appears adaptive. Current levels of genetic and phenotypic variation suggest adaptive potential, yet the pace of anthropogenic warming over the next 50 years could result in small populations that may collapse before adapting. Differences in niche features between diverging intraspecific lineages suggest distinct responses to climate change, and this has implications for prioritising conservation actions and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic histories are frequently a product of the environment, as populations expand or contract in response to major environmental changes, often driven by changes in climate. Meso‐ and bathy‐pelagic fishes inhabit some of the most temporally and spatially stable habitats on the planet. The stability of the deep‐pelagic could make deep‐pelagic fishes resistant to the demographic instability commonly reported in fish species inhabiting other marine habitats, however the demographic histories of deep‐pelagic fishes are unknown. We reconstructed the historical demography of 11 species of deep‐pelagic fishes using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data. We uncovered widespread evidence of population expansions in our study species, a counterintuitive result based on the nature of deep‐pelagic ecosystems. Frequency‐based methods detected potential demographic changes in nine species of fishes, while extended Bayesian skyline plots identified population expansions in four species. These results suggest that despite the relatively stable nature of the deep‐pelagic environment, the fishes that reside here have likely been impacted by past changes in climate. Further investigation is necessary to better understand how deep‐pelagic fishes, by far Earth's most abundant vertebrates, will respond to future climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic histories are frequently a product of the environment, as populations expand or contract in response to major environmental changes, often driven by changes in climate. Meso‐ and bathy‐pelagic fishes inhabit some of the most temporally and spatially stable habitats on the planet. The stability of the deep‐pelagic could make deep‐pelagic fishes resistant to the demographic instability commonly reported in fish species inhabiting other marine habitats, however the demographic histories of deep‐pelagic fishes are unknown. We reconstructed the historical demography of 11 species of deep‐pelagic fishes using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data. We uncovered widespread evidence of population expansions in our study species, a counterintuitive result based on the nature of deep‐pelagic ecosystems. Frequency‐based methods detected potential demographic changes in nine species of fishes, while extended Bayesian skyline plots identified population expansions in four species. These results suggest that despite the relatively stable nature of the deep‐pelagic environment, the fishes that reside here have likely been impacted by past changes in climate. Further investigation is necessary to better understand how deep‐pelagic fishes, by far Earth's most abundant vertebrates, will respond to future climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant growth is influenced by interactions with neighbouring plants. The strength and direction of the cumulative neighbourhood effect on growth can depend on neighbour properties, such as their abundance, size and proximity, as well as the degree of similarity between interacting plants and their traits, which can be captured by the species identity of neighbours. Such interactions are also influenced by the local environmental conditions that are largely determined by climate. Because neighbour and climatic effects are typically explored in isolation, particularly in long‐lived species such as trees, it is unclear how the impacts of neighbours on plant growth shift in response to temporal variation in climatic conditions.Here, we explored how neighbouring plants impact the annual growth of two eucalypts, Eucalyptus delegatensis and Eucalyptus regnans, over three growing seasons in an experimental forest in south‐east Tasmania, Australia. We assessed whether eucalypt growth rates could be described by the number, size, proximity, and species identity of neighbours, and how the strength of this effect was influenced by the growing season climatic conditions.We found that climate and neighbouring plants had an interactive impact on eucalypt growth. Neighbours had a consistent, competitive effect on the growth of both eucalypts in all three growing seasons which was strongly related to the cumulative neighbourhood biomass. The identity of neighbours was important in determining E. regnans growth only, whereby distinguishing neighbours according to functional group best described growth. Over all three growing seasons, we predicted that, on average, neighbours reduced E. delegatensis and E. regnans mean annual growth by 60.5% and 48.4%, respectively. However, the strength of the competitive effect of neighbours on eucalypt growth was related to growing season climate, being strongest when conditions were hot and dry and weakest in cool, wet conditions.Synthesis: Given the consistent results observed in two co‐occurring eucalypts, our findings suggest that drier and hotter climatic conditions increase the strength of competitive effects on tree growth. This has implications for future forest productivity given projected increased temperatures and variation in rainfall patterns globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature provides numerous functions and services that can contribute to societal climate change adaptation. These 'adaptation services' can be sustained, latent, or novel, depend on persistence or transformation of ecosystems, and require varying co-production by people. Adaptation services also include climate mitigation. We present an approach to explore an extensive set of land use and climate scenarios that outline possible futures for a landscape, and quantify the contributions of adaptation services. We quantified adaptation success across six criteria relevant to the region, characterised the contributions of different types of adaptation services, and mapped spatial variation in contributions across the landscape. We built an integrated model of the Mackenzie District (an upland landscape of Aotearoa New Zealand), and analysed 1200 hypothetical scenarios for the period 2060–2070. We found many adaptation options, with 46% of scenarios meeting the criteria for successful adaptation. Four sustained, two latent and five novel services co-produced through financial input made diverse contributions to economic profit, profit resilience, climate change mitigation, climate risk adaptation, landscape cultural heritage and biodiversity. Successful adaptation scenarios were multifunctional, relying on alternative combinations of services allowed by spatial heterogeneity. By accounting for the numerous relationships between people and natural components within complex landscape systems, our advanced simulation approach can inform participatory pathway development by quantifying the potential for nature to contribute to future climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine macroalgae are important indicators of healthy nearshore groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), which are emergent global conservation priorities. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) supports abundant native algal communities in GDEs via elevated but naturally derived nutrients. GDEs are threatened by anthropogenic nutrient inputs that pollute SGD above ambient levels, favoring invasive algae. Accordingly, this case study draws on the GDE conditions of Kona, Hawai'i where we evaluated daily photosynthetic production and growth for two macroalgae; a culturally valued native (Ulva lactuca) and an invasive (Hypnea musciformis). Manipulative experiments—devised to address future land-use, climate change, and water-use scenarios for Kona—tested algal responses under a natural range of SGD nutrient and salinity levels. Our analyses demonstrate that photosynthesis and growth in U. lactuca are optimal in low-salinity, high-nutrient waters, whereas productivity for H. musciformis appears limited to higher salinities despite elevated nutrient subsidies. These findings suggest that reductions in SGD via climate change decreases in rainfall or increased water-use from the aquifer may relax physiological constraints on H. musciformis. Collectively, this study reveals divergent physiologies of a native and an invasive macroalga to SGD and highlights the importance of maintaining SGD quantity and quality to protect nearshore GDEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timber heritage faces numerous risks, with the threat from insect and fungal attack particularly sensitive to climate. The Scheffer index estimates the deterioration of wood by combining average temperature and days of rain. We determined the Scheffer index from twenty sites in Europe across the 20th and early 21st century using meteorological observations, largely from the European Climate Assessment Dataset. Results showed that Scheffer indices across Europe loosely align with Köppen climate classes, which are also defined in terms of temperature and rainfall. However, within a given Köppen class, a wide range of Scheffer indices were found, thus representing very different threats to heritage. This suggests that specific heritage climate parameters, such as the Scheffer index, are needed. Trends in the Scheffer index provide a fairly robust guide to management strategy by identifying locations where the risk for timber is increasing. However, a simple index cannot necessarily describe the complex interactions between biological pests and climate; such complexity is better handled with well-constructed models. Nevertheless, the Scheffer index offers heritage managers an easily calculated estimate of the spatial distribution of risk to timber and the likely direction of future change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling can explore heritage responses to environmental pressures over wide spatial and temporal scales, testing both theory and process. However, compared to other fields, modelling approaches are not yet as common in heritage management. Some heritage models have become well known, though they struggle to have an impact beyond academia, with limited practical applications. Successful models appear to be adaptable to multiple sites or objects, intuitive to use, run using widely available software and produce output translatable into practical actions. Model tuning is also vital for the model to be effective. A specific purpose should be determined from the outset to enable tuning in the earliest design stages. Heritage models can be developed to explore theories or processes that affect or interact with heritage. Input should also be tuned to relevant temporal and spatial scales and consider duration and location. Additionally, it is important to account for materials and elements specific to heritage. Models need to be useful and usable if they are to be effective. User-friendly programs and interfaces help practical use. However, success can create problems, as input and output could become socially or commercially sensitive. The wider use of models may require broader discussion among heritage professionals and the provision of training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate will exert increasing pressure on heritage, so standard climate metrics need to be tuned to heritage threats. Historical meteorological records are commonly available as monthly summaries, with few offering daily observations as daily readings may not have been taken or yet digitised. As data averaged over longer intervals misses short weather events, we investigate the extent to which temporal resolution is important for assessing climate pressures on façades. The Radcliffe Meteorological Station, Oxford, UK, provides the longest continual record of daily temperature and precipitation measurements in the UK. We use this record to assess the role of temporal scale in heritage climate parameters relating to (i) sunshine and warmth, (ii) rainy days and (iii) freezing events. Where there is a linear relationship between daily and monthly scale data, monthly observations can be interpolated as heritage climate parameters. However, for the majority of parameters, daily data was required to capture the variability in the datasets. We argue for the increased availability of daily observations to help assess the threat of climate to heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timber heritage sites are vulnerable to damage from moisture. Simple meteorological descriptions of climate need to be tuned to capture drivers that threaten heritage, including dimensional change, insect attack and mould growth. Global climate models often provide projections through to the end of the 21st century but need to be translated to a local level to reveal processes of deterioration at specific sites. Translation to a local level can be challenging and requires the use of local information from a range of sources. This translation is explored over a range of sites facing different climate pressures, including fungal and insect risk at Harmondsworth Great Barn, England; changes in humidity range, salt risk and algal growth in rural timber buildings in the Midwestern states, USA; wind-driven rain impacts on board houses in Freetown, Sierra Leone; and rainfall and humidity range on timber buildings among the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia. Evidence-based narratives provide a tool to incorporate a multiplicity of local information to enrich projections and the interpretation of the model output. These could build trust and aid decision-making based on future projections, which are inherently uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of functional traits offers predictive power for community ecology. Particularly in cases where individual species are difficult to study, known properties of trait spectra, such as the leaf economics spectrum (LES), and trait–environment relationships can provide crucial generalizable information that can contribute to forecasts of distributional shifts in response to the abiotic effects of climate and land use changes.Vascular epiphytes have been proposed as indicators of environmental change, but we know little about the ecology of most species. Key functional trait assumptions are based on terrestrial plants; testing these in epiphytes verifies their universality and will inform applying functional traits in predicting epiphyte responses to climate and land use change.In this study, we use functional traits from 37 vascular epiphyte species from forests and shade coffee farms at two sites in northern Nicaragua. We compare correlations among traits and intraspecific trait variances with those of terrestrial plants and among epiphyte taxonomic groups. We also test trait responses to environmental differences between sites and land use types, and within zones of the tree.We find that epiphyte leaf traits fall towards the slower end of the LES, but with about one‐third lower leaf nitrogen per change in specific leaf area (SLA) relative to terrestrial herbaceous plants. Bromeliads show less relationship between these traits than other epiphyte groups and also deviate in other trait interrelationships, suggesting unique leaf construction.Trait–environment relationships varied most strongly along vertical gradients within trees, but some traits, including SLA and carbon isotope ratio, also responded to land use and site differences.We present evidence that trait relationships established for terrestrial plants appear to translate to epiphytes, but identify some possible caveats. Strong trait response to vertical gradients within trees suggests that within‐canopy shifts could provide resilience to climate and land use changes for some epiphyte species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pilgrimages are an important part of our intangible heritage. These long journeys, often on foot, can be sensitive to weather, so this study sees pilgrimages as providing an opportunity to look at the way in which changes in climate affect intangible heritage. It examines two important Ethiopian pilgrimages that involve hundreds of thousands who travel each year to Dirre Sheikh Hussein, seen as the country's Mecca, and Lalibela, its Jerusalem. These journeys in the cold season (December–February) often exceed 1000 km in length and expose pilgrims to low temperatures in mountain areas. Our analysis uses daily output data from ERA-5 and CHIRPS for rainfall and temperature across the recent past (1984–2014) and an ensemble of climate models (CMIP6) for the periods 1984–2014 and 2035–2065, to explore changes in nighttime low temperature, daytime high temperature and the potential increase in days of heavy rain in mountain areas. Additionally, we examine the increasing number of very hot days affecting travel to and from Dirre Sheikh Hussein. The pilgrims experience weather events and not long-term average conditions, so extremes and spells of inclement weather can affect their experience. Management plans for the regions have yet to address likely changes to climate at these religious sites, or consider how strategic planning might mitigate their impact on pilgrims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial water cycle intensity (WCI) is a widely used tool to quantify the impact of climate change on the distribution of global water resources. In this study, a satellite-based WCI was tested by comparing the parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) precipitation estimates with those of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on an existing Köppen–Geiger climate classification for the CONUS. Both precipitation products were not statistically different across all climate classes. Consequently, satellite-based WCI changes between two multiannual periods (2001 to 2009 and 2010 to 2019) were calculated at a 0.1-degree spatial resolution using the GPM and a validated global evapotranspiration dataset. This study showed that: (1) The water cycle is speeding up in many parts of the CONUS, particularly the West, driven by recent increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration through much of the region. (2) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be influencing the WCI of the CONUS by driving precipitation in the west, southeast, and parts of the north, and dryness in the northeast regions. The hydrological impacts of these results cannot be generalized. However, flood and drought risks, water availability and quality issues remain key primary concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in biodiversity generated by anthropogenic stressors at both species and population levels can alter emergent processes instrumental to ecosystem function and resilience. As such, understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function and its response to climate perturbation is increasingly important, especially in tropical systems where responses to changes in biodiversity are less predictable and more challenging to assess experimentally. Using large-scale transplant experiments conducted at five neotropical sites, we documented the impacts of changes in intraspecific and interspecific plant richness in the genus Piper on insect herbivory, insect richness, and ecosystem resilience to perturbations in water availability. We found that reductions of both intraspecific and interspecific Piper diversity had measurable and site-specific effects on herbivory, herbivorous insect richness, and plant mortality. The responses of these ecosystem-relevant processes to reduced intraspecific Piper richness were often similar in magnitude to the effects of reduced interspecific richness. Increased water availability reduced herbivory by 4.2% overall, and the response of herbivorous insect richness and herbivory to water availability were altered by both intra- and interspecific richness in a site-dependent manner. Our results underscore the role of intraspecific and interspecific richness as foundations of ecosystem function and the importance of community and location-specific contingencies in controlling function in complex tropical systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consistent individual differences in behavior, commonly termed animal personality, are a widespread phenomenon across taxa that have important consequences for fitness, natural selection, and trophic interactions. Animal personality research may prove useful in several conservation contexts, but which contexts remains to be determined. We conducted a structured literature review of 654 studies identified by combining search terms for animal personality and various conservation subfields. We scored the relevance of personality and conservation issues for each study to identify which studies meaningfully integrated the 2 fields as opposed to surface‐level connections or vague allusions. We found a taxonomic bias toward mammals (29% of all studies). Very few amphibian or reptile studies applied personality research to conservation issues (6% each). Climate change (21%), invasive species (15%), and captive breeding and reintroduction (13%) were the most abundant conservation subfields that occurred in our search, though a substantial proportion of these papers weakly integrated conservation and animal personality (climate change 54%, invasive species 51%, captive breeding and reintroduction 40%). Based on our results, we recommend that researchers strive for consistent and broadly applicable terminology when describing consistent behavioral differences to minimize confusion and improve the searchability of research. We identify several gaps in the literature that appear to be promising and fruitful avenues for future research, such as disease transmission as a function of sociability or exploration as a driver of space use in protected areas. Practitioners can begin informing future conservation efforts with knowledge gained from animal personality research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop productivity and yields can be greatly diminished by abiotic stress events including drought, extreme temperatures, excess moisture, and saline irrigation water. Multiple stressors occurring simultaneously can further exacerbate the strain on plants. Various types of biostimulants have been shown to mitigate abiotic stress and here, the results of 21 trials on corn, wheat, soybean, and various high-value crops are discussed in the context of the abiotic stress that either occurred naturally or was experimentally induced. Treatments in these trials included stressed and non-stressed plants, as well as either an untreated control or grower standard fertilizer applications alone and in combination with a natural organic matter (NOM)-based biostimulant. While stressed plants suffered compared with non-stressed plants, the stressed plants receiving the NOM-based biostimulant were healthier and larger, as indicated by whole, root, and shoot weights and yields at harvest. Plant response was stronger when stress existed, but the biostimulant also led to healthier plants when no stress occurred. Positive results occurred for 20 of the 21 trials, indicating that biostimulants can effectively mitigate abiotic stress events regardless of the plant species tested or the growing conditions encountered, by increasing sap Brix, enzymatic activity, and nutrient use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of ancient DNA for understanding human prehistoric dispersals, poor survival means that data remain sparse for many areas in the tropics, including in Africa. In such instances, analysis of contemporary genomes remains invaluable. One promising approach is founder analysis, which identifies and dates migration events in non-recombining systems. However, it has yet to be fully exploited as its application remains controversial. Here, we test the approach by evaluating the age of sub-Saharan mitogenome lineages sampled outside Africa. The analysis confirms that such lineages in the Americas date to recent centuries—the time of the Atlantic slave trade—thereby validating the approach. By contrast, in North Africa, Southwestern Asia and Europe, roughly half of the dispersal signal dates to the early Holocene, during the "greening" of the Sahara. We elaborate these results by showing that the main source regions for the two main dispersal episodes are distinct. For the recent dispersal, the major source was West Africa, but with two exceptions: South America, where the fraction from Southern Africa was greater, and Southwest Asia, where Eastern Africa was the primary source. These observations show the potential of founder analysis as both a supplement and complement to ancient DNA studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drainage reorganization generally occurs on geological time scales under unstable river network conditions. A few local‐scale studies indicate that recent climatic changes might accelerate the drainage reorganization process. However, large‐scale drainage reorganization during the modern era is rarely documented. This study examines ongoing drainage reorganization on the endorheic Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a primary result of drastic lake expansion. A total of 11 drainage system reorganization events comprising 24 different lake basins and covering a total area of 61,115 km2 occurred between 2000 and 2018. Assuming the continued growth rate of TP lakes, we project another 20 basins will be reorganized before 2030. These drainage basin reorganizations not only alter hydrological processes in the endorheic TP but may also cause the endorheic‐exorheic transition, leading to the upstream sprawl of the Yangtze River Basin and posing outburst flooding risks on China's key infrastructure such as the Qinghai‐Tibet Railway. Plain Language Summary: Recent climatic changes have intensified the global hydrologic cycle, and have likely accelerated drainage system evolution. We have provided a holistic picture of ongoing drainage reorganization driven by drastic lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our results indicate that 24 different lake drainage systems have undergone reorganization between 2000 and 2018, and the number of basins is expected to increase to 44 by the year 2030. One notable drainage reorganization is between the endorheic Lake Yanhu and the exorheic Chumaer river, resulting in the upstream expansion of the Yangtze River Basin. These findings provide an increased understanding of ongoing drainage reorganization events driven by climatic changes. Further, this work advances our understanding of the connections between ongoing hydrologic changes and their effect on related geological disasters (e.g., outburst floods) within the TP. Key Points: Rapid lake growths drive large‐scale drainage reorganizations on the Tibetan Plateau24 lake drainage systems have undergone reorganization from 2000 to 2018 and this number is expected to increase to 44 by the year 2030The northern portion of the upstream Yangtze basin has expanded by around 8,400 km2 due to an endorheic‐exorheic transition [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Forecasting the influence of climate change on coral biodiversity and reef functioning is important for informing policy decisions. Dominance shifts, tropicalization and local extinctions are common responses of climate change, but uncertainty surrounds the reliability of predicted coral community transformations. Here, we use species distribution models (SDMs) to assess changes in suitable coral habitat and associated patterns in biodiversity across Western Australia (WA) under present‐day and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Location: Coral reef systems and communities in WA. Methods: We developed SDMs with model prediction uncertainty analyses, using specimen‐based occurrence records of 188 hermatypic scleractinian coral species and seven variables to estimate present‐day and future changes to coral species distribution and biodiversity patterns in WA under climate change conditions. Results: We found that suitable habitat is predicted to increase across all regions in WA under RCP2.62050, RCP8.52050 and RCP2.62100 scenarios with all tropical and subtropical regions remaining coral biodiversity strongholds. Under the extreme RCP8.52100 scenario, however, a clear tropicalization trend could be observed with coral species expanding their range to mid‐high latitude regions, while a substantial drop in coral species richness was predicted at low latitude tropical coral reefs, such as the inshore Kimberley and offshore NW reefs. Despite the predicted expansion south, we identified a net decline in coral biodiversity across the WA coastline. Main conclusions: Results from the models predicted higher net coral biodiversity loss at low latitude tropical regions compared with net gains at mid‐high latitude regions under RCP8.52100. These results are likely to be representative of latitudinal trends across the Southern Hemisphere and highlight that increases in habitat suitability at higher latitudes may not lead to equivalent biodiversity benefits. Urgent action is needed to limit climate change to prevent spatial erosion of tropical coral communities, extinction events and loss of tropical ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]