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Aim: Species responses to global warming will depend on intraspecific diversity, yet studies of factors governing biogeographic patterns of variability are scarce. Here, we investigate the evolutionary processes underlying genetic and phenotypic diversity in the flightless and cold‐adapted grasshopper Sigaus piliferus, and project its suitable space in time. Location: Te Ika‐a‐Māui Aotearoa—North Island of New Zealand. Methods: We used mitochondrial sequences to investigate population connectivity and demographic trends using phylogeographic tools and neutrality statistics. Metric data were used to document phenotypic variation using naïve clustering. We used niche metrics to assess intraspecific niche variation, and niche modelling to investigate suitability under past and future scenarios. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization explored the processes contributing to phenotypic differentiation among grasshopper populations. Results: Niche models and demographic analyses suggest suitable space for this grasshopper was more restricted during glacial than interglacial stages. Genealogical relationships among ND2 haplotypes revealed a deep north–south split partly concordant with phenotypic and niche variation, suggesting two ecotypes that have mixed during recolonisation of the central volcanic region. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization indicate a link between climate and phenotypic differentiation inferred from leg and pronotum dimensions but not pronotum shape. Niche projections predict severe habitat reduction due to climate warming. Main conclusions: The current distribution and intraspecific diversity of S. piliferus reflect complex biogeographical scenarios consistent with Quaternary climates and volcanism. Phenotypic divergence appears adaptive. Current levels of genetic and phenotypic variation suggest adaptive potential, yet the pace of anthropogenic warming over the next 50 years could result in small populations that may collapse before adapting. Differences in niche features between diverging intraspecific lineages suggest distinct responses to climate change, and this has implications for prioritising conservation actions and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of functional traits offers predictive power for community ecology. Particularly in cases where individual species are difficult to study, known properties of trait spectra, such as the leaf economics spectrum (LES), and trait–environment relationships can provide crucial generalizable information that can contribute to forecasts of distributional shifts in response to the abiotic effects of climate and land use changes.Vascular epiphytes have been proposed as indicators of environmental change, but we know little about the ecology of most species. Key functional trait assumptions are based on terrestrial plants; testing these in epiphytes verifies their universality and will inform applying functional traits in predicting epiphyte responses to climate and land use change.In this study, we use functional traits from 37 vascular epiphyte species from forests and shade coffee farms at two sites in northern Nicaragua. We compare correlations among traits and intraspecific trait variances with those of terrestrial plants and among epiphyte taxonomic groups. We also test trait responses to environmental differences between sites and land use types, and within zones of the tree.We find that epiphyte leaf traits fall towards the slower end of the LES, but with about one‐third lower leaf nitrogen per change in specific leaf area (SLA) relative to terrestrial herbaceous plants. Bromeliads show less relationship between these traits than other epiphyte groups and also deviate in other trait interrelationships, suggesting unique leaf construction.Trait–environment relationships varied most strongly along vertical gradients within trees, but some traits, including SLA and carbon isotope ratio, also responded to land use and site differences.We present evidence that trait relationships established for terrestrial plants appear to translate to epiphytes, but identify some possible caveats. Strong trait response to vertical gradients within trees suggests that within‐canopy shifts could provide resilience to climate and land use changes for some epiphyte species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]