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Committed to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century, South America faces unique challenges in carbon mitigation due to its distinct socio-economic, technological, and institutional backgrounds compared to developed and other developing economies. Previous research on South America's carbon emissions has limited country and sector coverage and typically adopts a top-down approach that focuses on the overall emissions of an economy, neglecting individual energy sources and emission sectors. Therefore, this paper compiles a comprehensive inventory of CO 2 emissions for South American countries based on a meticulous bottom-up approach and multi-source data integration, followed by a thorough analysis of their temporal evolution patterns and the driving forces behind them. Between 2010 and 2020, South America's overall emissions peaked in 2014 at 1092.3 Mt., led by emissions from oil consumption and from the transport and electricity sectors, and dropped to 865.6 Mt. in 2020, due to the economic fluctuations and COVID-19. Specifically, Brazil was the largest emitter, Chile experienced the most significant increase in emissions, and Paraguay recorded the highest emission growth rate. Generally, expanding population was constant driver of emission growth. High energy intensity led to significant emission increases in Brazil and Ecuador, while elevated carbon intensity was the main driver in Argentina. Energy structure changes played a positive role in most countries to different extents (e.g., much more significant in Brazil than in Chile) but aggrevated emissions in Paraguay and Guyana. Therefore, carbon mitigation strategies should be tailored to each country's unique national circumstances. • During 2010–2020, South America's CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels peaked in 2014. • Transport and electricity sectors comprised over 60% of total emissions. • Brazil was the top emitter, while Chile saw the largest increase in emissions. • Emission patterns and driving factors varied significantly across countries. • Carbon reduction strategies should be tailored to local circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing nationally determined contributions is more challenging for developing countries given potential economic consequences. Chile, a developing economy, is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. To do so, Chile announced multiple mitigation strategies such as phasing out coal by 2040, peaking emissions by 2025, and developing renewable energies. Fortunately, Chile holds a prominent renewable potential, standing out for solar, but it also has a significant challenge decarbonizing an economy that heavily relies on fossil fuels. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the first country-level disaggregated version of GCAM Latin America (GCAM-LA) was developed, where all South American countries are modeled as an independent energy-economy region. This model includes Chile as a separated region and incorporates interactions among the energy, water, agriculture and land use, economy, and climate systems. Second, different decarbonization strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 were obtained, considering technology availability and high renewable energy potential. Results indicate that carbon neutrality is feasible when enforcing different combinations of the current Chilean mitigation strategies, even delaying coal phase-out by five years and failure of developing advanced solar technologies. If some policies are not fully implemented, such as delaying coal phase-out by five years or failure of developing advanced solar technologies, carbon neutrality can be achieved by incurring in a higher capital cost in the power sector. Moreover, decarbonization is mainly driven by high electrification levels in the final demand sector, reaching 53.7%–62.9% of the total consumption. However, such levels of electrification are reduced, particularly in the transport sector, when Chile relies on negative emissions from the land use and forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing nationally determined contributions is more challenging for developing countries given potential economic consequences. Chile, a developing economy, is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. To do so, Chile announced multiple mitigation strategies such as phasing out coal by 2040, peaking emissions by 2025, and developing renewable energies. Fortunately, Chile holds a prominent renewable potential, standing out for solar, but it also has a significant challenge decarbonizing an economy that heavily relies on fossil fuels. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the first country-level disaggregated version of GCAM Latin America (GCAM-LA) was developed, where all South American countries are modeled as an independent energy-economy region. This model includes Chile as a separated region and incorporates interactions among the energy, water, agriculture and land use, economy, and climate systems. Second, different decarbonization strategies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 were obtained, considering technology availability and high renewable energy potential. Results indicate that carbon neutrality is feasible when enforcing different combinations of the current Chilean mitigation strategies, even delaying coal phase-out by five years and failure of developing advanced solar technologies. If some policies are not fully implemented, such as delaying coal phase-out by five years or failure of developing advanced solar technologies, carbon neutrality can be achieved by incurring in a higher capital cost in the power sector. Moreover, decarbonization is mainly driven by high electrification levels in the final demand sector, reaching 53.7%–62.9% of the total consumption. However, such levels of electrification are reduced, particularly in the transport sector, when Chile relies on negative emissions from the land use and forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]