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The sources of predictability for the February 2021 cold air outbreak (CAO) over the central United States, which led to power grid failures and water delivery shortages in Texas, are diagnosed using a machine learning–based prediction model called a linear inverse model (LIM). The flexibility and low computational cost of the LIM allows its forecasts to be used for identifying and assessing the predictability of key physical processes. The LIM may also be run as a climate model for sensitivity and risk analysis for the same reasons. The February 2021 CAO was a subseasonal forecast of opportunity, as the LIM confidently predicted the CAO's onset and duration four weeks in advance, up to two weeks earlier than other initialized numerical forecast models. The LIM shows that the February 2021 CAO was principally caused by unpredictable internal atmospheric variability and predictable La Niña teleconnections, with nominally predictable contributions from the previous month's sudden stratospheric warming and the Madden–Julian oscillation. When run as a climate model, the LIM estimates that the February 2021 CAO was in the top 1% of CAO severity and suggests that similarly extreme CAOs could be expected to occur approximately every 20–30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a vector‐borne viral disease that causes lesions in livestock, premises, county and state quarantines, and important economic losses. We investigated vector–habitat characteristics for vectors associated with VS in regions of recurrent disease within the western United States (US) that consistently lead to the environment where vector, host, and pathogen populations intersect to enable pathogen transmission. We analyzed the habitats of previously identified insect vectors, including black flies (BFs) (Simulium vittatum complex), biting midges (BMs) (Culicoides variipennis complex, which includes Culicoides sonorensis), and sand flies (SFs) (Lutzomyia shannoni) in six regions of interest (ROIs) containing hotspots of VS ranging from Texas (TX) to Wyoming. This analysis broadened the understanding of (1) how regions of reoccurring VS differ from the broader western US, (2) how geographically separated regions and hotspots are similar across time, and (3) how vector–environment habitat a priori knowledge relates to observed hotspots. Analysis of watershed factors (livestock densities, land‐cover proportions, stream and lake densities, and irrigation methods) indicated a complex system separating areas with high, recurring VS from the broader western US. Although no single characteristic separated the six ROIs from other areas, we found two distinct emerging groups (northern ROI and TX). Hotspots, estimated from monthly VS concentrations, evolved northward throughout the year and most hotspots were closer to flowing water and agricultural land than the broader ROI. All ROIs contained environmental conditions suitable for multiple vectors at some point in the year, but BFs had the highest suitability scores, whereas BM scores were lower and varied annually with higher suitability in summer. SFs had the lowest suitability score in all ROIs, consistent with their low likelihood of being vectors. BM habitat patches were often orders of magnitude smaller than BF patches, and hotspot patches reinforce the likelihood that BF may be the most critical vector in northern ROI, whereas both BM and BF have similar likelihood in southern ROI. Given limited existing vector data, this analysis provides an alternate pathway for using habitat information to associate likely vectors responsible for transmission. Results could support early warning and mitigation efforts to reduce the incidence of VS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural locations provide limited economic opportunities, mainly relying on agricultural activities, with scarce industrial or commercial investment and employment. This has led to higher risks related to poverty, with a lack of opportunities for education, healthcare, and general services leading to rural migration. On the other hand, wind energy is growing exponentially in the United States (US). Rural locations offer very good siting options for wind farms considering the ever-growing size of their equipment and significant required area. Therefore, wind farms may provide financial opportunities to local rural communities, reducing poverty risks and improving living standards. These financial benefits include rental income for landowners, additional tax collection for public service funding, increased income for school districts, and overall larger local investments. However, the available data are too coarse, broad, and unconnected, not allowing local communities, wind developers, and stakeholders a clear panoramic of the benefits that each individual location, school district, or landowner may receive. This research compiled dispersed big data for its integration into a large Geographic Information System (GIS). This system is capable of performing analysis to provide a much better understanding of the actual benefits that the wind industry provides to each individual rural stakeholder. Data were converted to geospatial layers, when required, to allow for a fuller comprehension of all factors impacting financial benefits and risks from the wind industry. Analyses were expanded to evaluate the lease financial benefits for landowners in Texas, applying the data provided by local and state agencies. The approach developed in this research will allow for its application in diverse geographical locations to explore additional financial benefits that each individual rural stakeholder may receive from the wind industry. This will allow local authorities, landowners, wind developers, and communities to better negotiate for the future expansion of wind energy, providing all parties involved with significant benefits and allowing the continuous growth of renewable energy to overcome the damaging effects from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]