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Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the all-model ensemble (AMME), "highest-ranked" model ensemble (BMME), and "lowest-ranked" model ensemble (WMME), from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets. The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME. Compared with the AMME and WMME, the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation, thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation. The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar, characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. However, the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME, contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China. Compared to the AMME and WMME, the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5). One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger. The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role. In addition, larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models. The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986–2005, although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity. A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated. By the end of the 21st century (2079–98), the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by 16% and 10%, respectively. The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations, with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan. The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986–2005, with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs. In addition, more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast, with an increase of ∼18% over the whole Chinese territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian values thesis describes the cultural exceptionalism and alternative political development of East Asia. This study used four rounds of Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) datasets (spanning 2001–2016) to empirically examine the effects of Asian values on citizens' support for democracy in four East Asian societies—mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—based on the theoretical distinction between the private and political spheres in which Asian values operate. The analysis produced three major findings. First, no remarkable gap exists between the citizens of China and those of other East Asian societies in terms of Asian values in the private sphere. However, Asian values in the political sphere are prevalent in China, while citizens in the other three societies have abandoned them. Second, supporting democracy is not incompatible with accepting the family and social ethics implied by Asian values, whereas Asian values in the political sphere have significantly negative associations with preference for democracy. Third, although most citizens in East Asia support democracy, the strongly positive evaluation of its suitability for local societies observed at the beginning of the twenty-first century has weakened in the region over the last 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]