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In the context of climate change, research on frozen soils has attracted much attention in recent years, and numerous research papers have been published on these topics in the last decade. However, the present status and developmental trends in frozen soils research have not been reported systematically. Herein, a bibliometric analysis was conducted using 7,108 research papers on frozen soils published between 2010 and 2019. The results indicate that: (a) although the number of articles published increased from 432 in 2010 to 1,066 in 2019, the average number of citations per paper reached a maximum of 5.40 in 2014, and subsequently decreased to 2.99 in 2019; (b) China, the USA, and Canada ranked first to third in terms of total papers; (c) the most popular author keywords were boreal, tundra, Landsat, lakes, decomposition, dissolved organic carbon, permafrost thaw, and carbon cycle; and (d) the five most popular research topics in 2010–2019 were the characteristics and factors influencing frozen soils, the Arctic carbon cycle under the background of its complex environment, permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in the context of climate change, ancient frozen soils in various historical periods, and frozen soils in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes up the call for political geographers to engage more directly with Wittgenstein's later philosophy of language, namely his emphasis on language as activity and practice. In particular, it considers his approach to linguistic demonstration over representation, whereby the reader is not 'told' but 'shown.' This arguably instructive conceptualisation of the functioning of language is here applied to a space of geopolitics, focusing on the political potentialities of articulating an Arctic otherwise through selective bilingualism and language‐use. More specifically, the paper centres on the particular use of North Sámi language in a conference space otherwise dominated by English and Norwegian. The act of 'articulating otherwise' is not here an act of defiance but rather an invitation for re‐conceptualisation. In making Indigenous voices heard on their own terms, it is not only the words but even more so the act of their utterance that carries political power. The paper therefore argues that political geographers ought to (re)direct attention to language‐use and the socio‐political practices of linguistic world‐making. By drawing on Wittgenstein's approach to language‐use, what here becomes clear is that geopolitical questions too are negotiated not through given answers but rather through the interactive process of reaching these together – insights that in turn allow us to consider how agency and change may play out through language‐use, potentially articulating geopolitics otherwise. This paper takes up the call for political geographers to engage more directly with Wittgenstein's later philosophy of language, namely his emphasis on language as activity and practice. The paper focuses on the potentialities of articulating an Arctic otherwise through selective bilingualism and Sámi language‐use in a conference space. It argues that political geographers ought to (re)direct attention to language‐use and the socio‐political practices of linguistic world‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spite of the region's diverse peoples and unique environments, Arctic political analyses frequently remain focused on the traditional level of the state and inter‐state relations. While states undoubtedly play a significant role in Arctic governance arrangements, this paper seeks to direct attention to the agency of the many people and actors performing politics in the region. A more 'peopled' analysis includes renewed attention to professionals – e.g., state personnel, politicians, and diplomats – as well as non‐state actors involved in Arctic politics through different avenues and with different levels of agency. This paper focuses on the so‐called Barents Cooperation, a peace‐building initiative set up in the wake of the Cold War between Nordic states and Russia in the Barents Euro‐Arctic border region. It draws on interviews with professionals involved in the daily running of the Barents Cooperation, including its funding of 'grassroots' and people‐to‐people activities, to ask what can lessons can be learnt about Arctic political participation beyond the state. Based on their reflections, key challenges, successes, and future opportunities are highlighted, and the paper argues for strengthening both the analytical attention to and the practical agency of a wider range of political actors. Geopolitical analyses frequently remain focused on the traditional level of the state and inter‐state relations. While states undoubtedly play a significant role in Arctic governance arrangements, this paper seeks to direct attention to the agency of the many people and actors performing politics in the region, focusing on the political initiative The Barents Cooperation. The paper argues for strengthening both the analytical attention to and the practical agency of a wider range of political actors in geopolitical analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground‐based data sets and chemistry‐transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far‐reaching consequences of such extremes. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex—a band of strong winds roughly encircling the pole at about 65°N latitude from about 15 to 50 km above the Earth's surface that forms every winter—was exceptionally strong during the 2019/2020 winter. The strong vortex in the stratosphere was linked to unusual conditions at both higher and lower altitudes. This collection of papers explores the far‐reaching consequences of the exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020, including impacts on Arctic chemical ozone loss and on surface weather conditions. Chemical ozone loss in spring 2020 matched or exceeded the most previously on record (for 2011) and showed some features similar to the larger loss that occurs over the Antarctic every spring. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex was linked to weather extremes, including record heat, unusual patterns of precipitation, marine cold air outbreaks, and windstorms. Key Points: The stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 was the strongest and longest‐lasting on record as described in this special collectionThis exceptionally strong and cold polar vortex led to unprecedented Arctic ozone loss, approaching that in some Antarctic wintersCirculation anomalies linked to the vortex spanned the mesosphere to the surface with implications for extreme weather and predictability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cloud feedback may result in amplification or damping of Arctic warming. Two common techniques used to diagnose the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere cloud feedback are the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect (AdjCRE) method and the Cloud Radiative Kernel (CRK) method. We apply both to CMIP5 and CMIP6 model data, finding that the AdjCRE calculated Arctic shortwave cloud feedback is twice as correlated with sea ice loss in CMIP5, and four times in CMIP6, as the CRK method. We find that the CRK method produces Arctic all‐sky residual percentages exceeding 20% in 15 of 18 models. We use the CRK method to decompose the feedback in CMIP5 and CMIP6 finding that its median value changed from negative to positive driven by a less‐negative cloud optical depth feedback. Despite its lack of closure, we conclude that the CRK method is better suited for Arctic SW feedbacks as it is less impacted by surface albedo changes. Plain Language Summary: The cloud feedback is the process by which cloud property changes in a warming climate can either further enhance warming or damp it. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, and one of the largest sources of uncertainty in its climate projections is the cloud feedback. There are two popular methods to calculate the cloud feedback: the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect technique, and the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique. In this paper we compare the two methods in a suite of climate models by considering the extent to which changes in Arctic sea ice impact the cloud feedbacks. From this analysis we conclude that the Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less affected by sea ice loss. We then apply the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique to data from the two most recent generations of global climate models to investigate how polar day Arctic cloud feedbacks have changed between these generations. We find that the median value of these Arctic feedbacks is slightly positive in the newest generation of models, a change from slightly negative in the previous generation that is largely fueled by a weakening of the feedback associated with changes in cloud optical depth. Key Points: The Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less sensitive to surface albedo changes than the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect techniqueThe Cloud Radiative Kernel method provides poor radiative closure in a suite of global climate modelsThe median shortwave Arctic cloud feedback in recent climate models is slightly positive due to a weakened cloud optical depth feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science, engineering, and society increasingly require integrative thinking about emerging problems in complex systems, a notion referred to as convergence science. Due to the concurrent pressures of two main stressors—rapid climate change and industrialization, Arctic research demands such a paradigm of scientific inquiry. This perspective represents a synthesis of a vision for its application in Arctic system studies, developed by a group of disciplinary experts consisting of social and earth system scientists, ecologists, and engineers. Our objective is to demonstrate how convergence research questions can be developed via a holistic view of system interactions that are then parsed into material links and concrete inquiries of disciplinary and interdisciplinary nature. We illustrate the application of the convergence science paradigm to several forms of Arctic stressors using the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic as a representative natural laboratory with a biogeographic gradient from the forest‐tundra ecotone to the high Arctic. Plain Language Summary: This paper represents a synthesis of conceptual analyses, case study analyses, and practical thoughts on the application of convergence science in Arctic change studies. During a virtual workshop in 2020, a diverse, multi‐national team of authors consisting of social scientists, engineers, earth system scientists, and ecologists came together to formulate broad, scientifically, and societally important questions on how the Arctic system in the Yamal Peninsula of Western Siberia responds to pressures of rapidly changing climate and increasing industrialization. The team "engineered" a novel approach for expert (representing a disciplinary domain) and non‐expert (representatives of other disciplines) communication and at the workshop conclusion developed several convergence science questions of high appeal. Three of such questions are presented in this manuscript to illustrate how the search and identification of appropriate mechanistic linkages are critical to the development of system‐level understanding of stressor impact propagation. The need to understand underlying disciplinary and cross‐disciplinary mechanisms connecting Arctic system elements is viewed to be an inherent part of the convergence science approach. Through pursuit of such understanding, the approach naturally leads to other novel emerging questions, thereby stimulating further application of the process of integrative thinking. Key Points: Arctic research demands convergence science as essential method to understand impacts from novel stressorsAn integrative approach is developed by a diverse team to formulate questions that cannot be fully addressed within disciplinary studiesA convergence science analysis is illustrated for three questions applicable to Yamal, Russian Arctic, a microcosm of the changing Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore a concept of exercise design within emergency management competence development. The paper presents recommendations for exercise design aspects that may be suitable for gaining collaboration skills and knowledge that responders need in unknown events of high complexity. This study explores the practice of tabletop exercises with complex scenarios that engage participants to discover organizational roles and responsibility division in collaborative action. Empirically, we base our analysis on maritime search and rescue nuclear preparedness exercises in the Arctic seas. We focus on elements that are essential for learners to increase their knowledge of operational complexity and collaborative performance, including understanding one's own and others' roles and responsibilities, formation of interagency teams, their boundaries and interaction between authorities and levels, mutual recognition of risks and learning about resource capacities and their limitations. The study draws conclusions on aspects that are critical for designing emergency management tabletop exercises, in particularly discussions in mixed groups for interpretative learning; own practice reflection for integrative learning; formulating general collaborative competence objectives, and complexity and realism of scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is predicted to have dramatic effects on Arctic freshwater ecosystems through changes to the abiotic template that are expected to influence biodiversity. Changes are already ongoing in Arctic systems, but there is a lack of coordinated monitoring of Arctic freshwaters that hinders our ability to assess changes in biodiversity.To address the need for coordinated monitoring on a circumpolar scale, the Arctic Council working group, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, established the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program, which is an adaptive monitoring program for the Arctic centred around four ecosystem themes (i.e., Freshwater, Terrestrial, Coastal, Marine). The freshwater theme developed a monitoring plan for Arctic freshwater biodiversity and recently completed the first assessment of status and trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity.Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater has compiled and analysed a database of Arctic freshwater monitoring data to form the first report of the state of circumpolar Arctic freshwater biodiversity. This special issue presents the scientific analyses that underlie the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater report and provides analyses of spatial and temporal diversity patterns and the multiple‐stressor scenarios that act on the biological assemblages and biogeochemistry of Arctic lakes and rivers.This special issue includes regional patterns for selected groups of organisms in Arctic rivers and lakes of northern Europe, Russia, and North America. Circumpolar assessments for benthic diatoms, macrophytes, plankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish demonstrate how climate change and associated environmental drivers affect freshwater biodiversity. Also included are papers on spatial and temporal trends in water chemistry across the circumpolar region, and a systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge that demonstrates its potential to support assessment and conservation of Arctic freshwaters.This special issue includes the first circumpolar assessment of trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity and provides important baseline information for future assessments and studies. It represents the largest compilation and assessment of Arctic freshwater biodiversity data to date and strives to provide a holistic view of ongoing change in these ecosystems to support future monitoring efforts. By identifying gaps in monitoring data across the circumpolar region, as well as identifying best practices for monitoring and assessment, this special issue presents an important resource for researchers, policy makers, and Indigenous and local communities that can support future assessments of ecosystem change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time‐lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high‐frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite‐derived phenology products.However, in remote regions including the high‐latitude Arctic, deploying time‐lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges.Here, we present a novel, low‐power, compact, lightweight time‐lapse camera system, called power‐interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low‐Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology.Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (< −30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground‐based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐term absorption by the oceans of atmospheric carbon dioxide is leading to the slow decline of ocean pH, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). The Arctic is a challenging region to gather enough data to examine the changes in carbonate chemistry over sufficient scales. However, algorithms that calculate carbonate chemistry parameters from more frequently measured parameters, such as temperature and salinity, can be used to fill in data gaps. Here, these published algorithms were evaluated against in situ measurements using different data input types (data from satellites or in situ re‐analysis climatologies) across the Arctic Ocean. With the lowest uncertainties in the Atlantic influenced Seas (AiS), where re‐analysis inputs achieved total alkalinity estimates with Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD) of 21 μmol kg−1 and a bias of 2 μmol kg−1 (n = 162) and dissolved inorganic carbon RMSD of 24 μmol kg−1 and bias of −14 μmol kg−1 (n = 262). AiS results using satellite observation inputs show similar bias but larger RMSD, although due to the shorter time span of available satellite observations, more contemporary in situ data would provide further assessment and improvement. Synoptic‐scale observations of surface water carbonate conditions in the Arctic are now possible to monitor OA, but targeted in situ data collection is needed to enable the full exploitation of satellite observation‐based approaches. Plain Language Summary: The long‐term absorption by the oceans of atmospheric carbon dioxide is leading to the slow decline of ocean pH, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). Sea surface salinity and temperature measurements from satellites or in situ re‐analysis products can be used as input to empirical algorithms to calculate OA parameters. This paper provides a first analysis of published Arctic Ocean empirical algorithms to estimate surface water OA parameters using observation‐based data sets. Results show promise in the Atlantic influenced Seas using both in situ re‐analysis and satellite products, but satellite salinity is relatively recent, and a paucity of in situ data in the satellite salinity era precludes a robust assessment. To fully exploit satellite‐based approaches, efforts need to focus on collecting in situ data while these satellites are overhead and operating in orbit. Key Points: Observation‐based data sets enable synoptic spatio‐temporal assessments of Arctic Ocean carbonate system parametersRe‐analysis and satellite products predict total alkalinity with accuracies of ∼21 μmol kg−1Targeted in situ data collection is needed to fully exploit satellite observations in the Arctic to enable carbonate system monitoring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Arctic Cyclone 2012 (AC12) is used to understand the role of initial condition errors in the predictability at 2–3‐day forecast range of a high‐impact summer Arctic Cyclone (AC). Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is first performed to identify potentially sensitive regions of the cyclone evolution using an ensemble baseline forecast with conventional in situ observations assimilated. A pseudo‐observation method is then introduced to investigate impacts of hypothetical observations in these sensitive but unobserved regions. In the baseline experiments with in situ observations assimilated, the forecasted AC12 reaches its peak intensity 18 hr earlier than in the verifying Global Forecast System Analysis (GFS‐ANL) and the cyclone track is biased toward the southwest. Using ESA, the time of peak intensity and the cyclone track error are identified to be sensitive to the upstream trough, downstream ridge, and the tropopause polar vortex (TPV) to the northeast (NE TPV) of the AC12. These features were not observed by the in situ observation networks. To examine the impact of the observation gaps, pseudo‐observations drawn from GFS‐ANL are assimilated. Pseudo‐observations sample the three features separately to study the impact of the initial condition error on the predictability of AC12. The cyclone peak intensity timing error and track error are greatly reduced when the initial condition error is reduced near the NE TPV. A southward expansion of the NE TPV and the corresponding southward shifting low‐level front lead the forecasted AC12 to progress to the east, which better agrees with the verifying GFS‐ANL. Plain Language Summary: Accurate prediction of strong Arctic cyclones is critical to the scientific and economical activities in the Arctic. However, the sparse observation networks in the Arctic pose challenges to the data assimilation system to constrain the initial conditions in various features of the Arctic Cyclones. This paper used a case study approach to investigate the impact of initial condition errors in different features on the development of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone. Synoptic features that are sensitive to the track and timing of the cyclone were first identified using ensemble sensitivity analysis. Assimilating in situ conventional observations did not sufficiently constrain the initial conditions in the sensitive features. Hypothetical pseudo‐observations from an external analysis system were then designed and assimilated to study how each sensitive feature affects the prediction of the physical processes of cyclone development. The results showed that more observations inside the TPV to the northeast of the cyclone brought the most significant forecast improvements at a 2‐day forecast lead time. Key Points: Ensemble sensitivity analysis reveals track and deepening trend forecast biases of Arctic Cyclone 2012 are sensitive to unobserved synoptic scale featuresPseudo‐observation experiments show the northeast tropopause polar vortex (TPV) is the most impactful feature among sensitive featuresSouthward expansion of the northeast TPV impacts the cyclone evolution by shifting the low‐level front southward [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling and understanding sea ice dynamics in marginal ice zones rely on measurements of sea ice. Lagrangian observations of ice floes provide insight into the dynamics of sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere. However, optical satellite images are susceptible to atmospheric noise, leading to gaps in the retrieved time series of floe positions. This paper presents an efficient and statistically accurate nonlinear dynamical interpolation framework for recovering missing floe observations. It exploits a balanced physics‐based and data‐driven construction to address the challenges posed by the high‐dimensional and nonlinear nature of the coupled atmosphere‐ice‐ocean system, where effective reduced‐order stochastic models, nonlinear data assimilation, and simultaneous parameter estimation are systematically integrated. The new method succeeds in recovering the locations, curvatures, angular displacements, and the associated strong non‐Gaussian distributions of the missing floes in the Beaufort Sea. It also accurately estimates floe thickness and recovers the unobserved underlying ocean field with an appropriate uncertainty quantification, advancing our understanding of Arctic climate. Plain Language Summary: Tracking individual ice floes is a unique measurement of areas of the Arctic where the ice cover interacts with the open ocean. Unfortunately, optical satellite images of these areas are frequently obscured by clouds, leading to missing observations of the ice floes. Traditional methods of filling in these gaps in the data set have issues. Linear interpolation, which averages between available observations to fill in missing ones, fails to recover the curvature of the floes. Dynamical interpolation methods, which take into account the physical properties of the ice floes, are very computationally expensive. This paper presents a nonlinear dynamical interpolation framework for recovering missing floe observations, which is both computationally efficient and statistically accurate. The framework incorporates a model of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice and systematically develops data‐driven reduced‐order stochastic models, which significantly accelerate the dynamical interpolation while retaining accuracy. In addition, the framework estimates key physical parameters, such the floe thickness. This new method succeeds in recovering the locations, curvatures, angular displacements, and strong non‐Gaussian statistics of the missing floes in a data set of ice floes in the Beaufort Sea. These results can provide complete data sets that advance our understanding of Arctic climate. Key Points: Developed systematic data‐driven reduced‐order stochastic model to significantly lower the computational cost for dynamical interpolationEstimated key physical parameters such as the floe thickness and recovered the unobserved ocean flow field with uncertainty quantificationRecovered important non‐Gaussian distributions of the curvature and angular displacement of the missing floes in the Beaufort Sea [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the impact of topography on stratospheric ozone is a crucial step toward achieving a deeper comprehension of the role of topography uplift in driving paleoclimatic evolution and stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. This paper quantitatively estimates the contribution of Asian topography to Arctic stratospheric ozone by topography experiments in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6. The results indicate that Asian topography exerts an especially robust influence on Arctic stratospheric ozone during winter. Compared to the flattened topography, Asian topography significantly increases the ozone by 15% in the lower Arctic stratosphere, accompanied by the highest accumulation of total ozone appearing in the polar region north to the North American continent. The intensified residual mean circulation transport is principally responsible for the increase in ozone, and Asian topography has a stronger impact on the vertical residual mean transport than on the meridional residual mean transport. Further examination demonstrates that the robust strengthening of planetary waves caused by Asian topography significantly contributes to the enhancement of the residual mean circulation. Specifically, the upper Arctic stratosphere experiences a 42.7% increase in the amplitude of planetary waves with wavenumber 1, which means the weakened polar vortex. The diagnosis of the mean Lorenz energy cycle further indicates that Asian topography decreases the zonal mean kinetic energy and increases the eddy kinetic energy in the stratosphere. Therefore, the enhancement of residual mean circulation transport and the weakening of the polar vortex both work together to promote the accumulation of Arctic ozone. Plain Language Summary: The stratosphere refers to the atmospheric layer located between 15 to 50 km above the surface, which contains approximately 90% of the global ozone. The stratospheric ozone layer serves as a protective shield for the Earth's ecosystem, safeguarding it against the damaging impacts of ultraviolet radiation. Through numerical simulations with and without the Asian topography (e.g., the Tibetan Plateau), this study evaluates how the Asian topography affects stratospheric ozone, which helps to understand the role of topography uplift in driving paleoclimatic evolution and stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The results show that the Arctic experiences the strongest influence from Asian topography on stratospheric ozone. In comparison to the absence of the Asian topography, the total ozone over the Arctic can be increased up to 40 DU during winter, with the most significant average increase in the lower stratosphere at 15%. The Asian topography can promote the stratospheric low‐pressure system encircling the Arctic (i.e., polar vortex, the ozone inside it is usually lower) to shift toward Eurasia. Concomitantly, more planetary waves generated by the Asian topography travel poleward and upward, allowing the polar vortex to be weakened and ozone transport from the lower latitudes to be enhanced. Key Points: The Asian topography has a strong impact on Arctic stratospheric ozone during winterIncreasing in Arctic stratospheric ozone is induced mainly by the enhancement of residual mean circulation transport in winterThe more poleward and upward planetary waves generated by the Asian topography are responsible for the intensified residual mean circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an introduction to a special section on remote politics in the Arctic. We introduce how the various authors have analysed the consequences of a warming Arctic for the peoples who inhabit it and for those states seeking to retain or expand influence in this resource‐rich region. We hope to start a conversation between scholars in International Relations and those in Geography to understand this rapdily warming region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While populations of other migratory salmonids suffer in the Anthropocene, pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbusca Salmonidae) are thriving, and their distribution is expanding both within their natural range and in the Atlantic and Arctic following introduction of the species to the White Sea in the 1950s. Pink salmon are now rapidly spreading in Europe and even across the ocean to North America. Large numbers of pink salmon breed in Norwegian rivers and small numbers of individuals have been captured throughout the North Atlantic since 2017. Although little is known about the biology and ecology of the pink salmon in its novel distribution, the impacts of the species' introduction are potentially highly significant for native species and watershed productivity. Contrasts between pink salmon in the native and extended ranges will be key to navigating management strategies for Atlantic nations where the pink salmon is entrenching itself among the fish fauna, posing potential threats to native fish communities. One key conclusion of this paper is that the species' heritable traits are rapidly selected and drive local adaptation and evolution. Within the Atlantic region, this may facilitate further establishment and spread. The invasion of pink salmon in the Atlantic basin is ultimately a massive ecological experiment and one of the first examples of a major faunal change in the North Atlantic Ocean that is already undergoing rapid changes due to other anthropogenic stressors. New research is urgently needed to understand the role and potential future impacts of pink salmon in Atlantic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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From the beginning of the 21st century, the heat waves in Europe have become more frequent, severe and longer lasting, especially in the southern region. The longer duration of heat waves may be partly attributed to wave‐amplification, high‐amplitude waves in the mid‐latitudes, favouring the longer‐lasting blocking systems. The primary objective of the paper was to examine the long‐term changes of hot days and heat wave events and to identify the atmospheric circulation condition that prevails its occurrence. The other object was to investigate the correlations between hot days' occurrence in Poland and sea‐ice cover and sea surface temperature changes in the Arctic and its surroundings. Over the past few decades, Central and Southern Poland have experienced a considerable rise in maximum temperatures, which has led to an increase in the number of hot days. This increase is particularly prominent during the summer months (June, July and August) but also in May and September, which extends the hot season. Although heat waves have become more frequent and persistent since 2006, their mean intensity has remained unchanged. During all heat waves in Poland, the high‐pressure centre was located over the country or its close neighbourhood, mainly in the eastern sector but also in the south, southwest or over Scandinavia. The blocking systems were mainly related to the extended ridge of the Azores High, but also to strong blocking over the North Pole and Greenland reaching Scandinavia or anomalous high pressure in the East Arctic. The longest‐lasting heat waves were usually preceded by air masses advection from the Atlantic, but the highest potential temperature along the trajectories was observed for the southern direction of inflow. The growing number of hot days is statistically significantly related to the decreasing sea‐ice cover and increasing sea surface temperature in Arctic and Subarctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beaufort Sea High is a high‐pressure system located in the Beaufort Sea that influences ocean circulation in the western Arctic known as the Beaufort Gyre. Wrangel Island, located in the western Chukchi Sea, typically experiences easterly sea ice motion due to the Beaufort Gyre. We find that under these climatological conditions, moving ice is blocked by the island and accumulates on its eastern side, while ice on its western side continues to drift leaving an area of open water and reduced ice thickness along the western side of the island. This results in an ice thickness dipole across the island. A reversal in the atmospheric circulation across the western Arctic results in a dipole with the opposing sign. We find the dipole is present throughout the year and is strongest in January when the difference in ice thickness between the eastern and western sides of the island is approximately 1 m. During the spring, it is associated with the transient opening of a polynya to the west of the island. The dipole is the result of opposing ice divergence and convergence across the western Arctic and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems within the Chukchi Sea. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic climate is rapidly changing with many important environmental consequences prompting increased scientific study. In this paper, we examine the interaction of drifting sea ice and Wrangel Island, which is located in the western Arctic Ocean's Chukchi Sea. We find that ice typically drifts from the east and is blocked by the island causing the ice to accumulate on its eastern side. Ice continues to drift away from the western side of the island, thus a contrast or "dipole" in ice thickness is created. This dipole is present throughout the year and is strongest in January when the ice thickness difference is around 1 m. We find that the formation of the dipole is associated with strong westward winds at the island. These winds are associated with a strong high‐pressure system called the Beaufort Sea High that results in anti‐cyclonic winds, ice motion, and surface currents throughout the region. A reversal from easterly to westerly winds results in a dipole of opposing sign. The dipole is associated with ice thickness anomalies across the western Arctic and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems across the region. Key Points: Ice motion in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas can result in a sea ice thickness dipole in the vicinity of Wrangel IslandA reversal in wind direction and sea‐level pressure anomalies across the western Arctic Ocean can cause the signal of the dipole to reverseThe dipole is the result of ice motion divergence and convergence across the region and may impact ocean circulation and ecosystems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sources and fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from permafrost are significant but poorly constrained in global climate models. We present data collected from the variable permafrost setting of the outer Mackenzie River Delta, including observations of aquatic methane seepage, core determinations of in situ methane occurrence and seep gas isotope geochemistry. The sources and locations of in situ geologic methane occurrence and aquatic and atmospheric gas release appear to be controlled by the regional geology and permafrost conditions. Where permafrost is >250 m thick, thermogenic gas deposits at depth are isolated by laterally continuous, low permeability ice‐bearing sediments with few through‐going thawed taliks. Thus, the observed in situ methane and aquatic gas seepage appears to be dominated by microbial methane. In contrast, where permafrost is <80 m thick, taliks are more likely to be through‐going, providing permeable conduits from depth and migration pathways for both thermogenic and biogenic gas. Continuous annual fluid sampling of two lakes and a river channel documents aquatic methane flux from microbial sources, more deeply buried thermogenic sources, and mixtures of both. Using estimates of in situ methane concentration from deep core samples and observations of in situ free gas occurrences, we conclude that the reservoir of in situ geologic methane within ice bonded permafrost is substantial and that this methane is presently migrating with ongoing atmospheric release. It is our assessment that the permafrost setting, and processes described are sensitive to future climate change as the permafrost warms. Plain Language Summary: Methane is released from permafrost, yet the amount and sources of the methane are poorly understood. This paper presents data on methane released from water environments and stored in soil from the permafrost areas of the outer Mackenzie River Delta, NWT. It also uses isotope geochemistry to determine the source (type) of the methane ‐ either biogenic (produced by living organisms) or thermogenic (produced by breaking down of organic matter by heat). The sources and locations of the methane gas release appear to be controlled by the regional geology and permafrost conditions. We conclude that the methane stored within and beneath the ice bonded permafrost is substantial and that this methane is presently migrating to aquatic systems with ongoing atmospheric release. It is our assessment that this permafrost setting and the potential for increased methane release are sensitive to future climate change as the permafrost warms. Key Points: A unique annual record of dissolved methane geochemistry documents active microbial and geologic methane sources in a delta lake and channelSeep gas chemistry, geophysical, and core data allow appraisal of permafrost controls on subsurface methane dynamics in the Mackenzie DeltaThe large inventory of stored methane and the dynamic permafrost processes described are potentially responsive to future climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Shared geographical patterns of population genetic variation among related species is a powerful means to identify the historical events that drive diversification. The Sphagnum capillifolium complex is a group of closely related peat mosses within the Sphagnum subgenus Acutifolia and contains several circumboreal species whose ranges encompass both glaciated and unglaciated regions across the northern hemisphere. In this paper, we (1) inferred the phylogeny of subg. Acutifolia and (2) investigated patterns of population structure and genetic diversity among five circumboreal species within the S. capillifolium complex. Methods: We generated RAD sequencing data from most species of the subg. Acutifolia and samples from across the distribution ranges of circumboreal species within the S. capillifolium complex. Results: We resolved at least 14 phylogenetic clusters within the S. capillifolium complex. Five circumboreal species show some common patterns: One population system comprises plants in eastern North America and Europe, and another comprises plants in the Pacific Northwest or around the Beringian and Arctic regions. Alaska appears to be a hotspot for genetic admixture, genetic diversity, and sometimes endemic subclades. Conclusions: Our results support the hypothesis that populations of five circumboreal species within the S. capillifolium complex survived in multiple refugia during the last glacial maximum. Long‐distance dispersal out of refugia, population bottlenecks, and possible adaptations to conditions unique to each refugium could have contributed to current geographic patterns. These results indicate the important role of historical events in shaping the complex population structure of plants with broad distribution ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The appearance of new Arctic islands and straits as the result of landscape transformation due to tidewater glacier recession under climate warming continues. Analysis of available maps and satellite images has served herein as the main research method. Six new islands, each covering an area of 0.4–248 km2, appeared in the years 2018–2021, and are described in this paper. Three other new islands, ranging in area from 0.4 to 3.2 km2, appeared along the Greenland coast in 1997, 2001, and 2013, and are described here, and they have not yet been described elsewhere. Seven of the nine aforementioned new islands appeared in Greenland and the European Arctic, where all earlier 35 new islands and straits had appeared due to ice melting. However, two of these appeared in the Severnaya Zemlya area in 2018, becoming the first new islands in the Asiatic (Siberian) Arctic. Additional new islands are now at an advanced stage of formation, and several will appear in the 2020s in the case of a stabilization of the current climate or further warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, increasing the buoyancy and vertical ascent of absorbing aerosol in the atmosphere. This self‐lofting process has been observed for individual plumes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere but here we show it occurring at broader scales through enhanced large‐scale ascent over BC‐rich regions. This is demonstrated in a pair of simulation using the UKESM1 Earth‐System model where BC aerosols were modeled either with or without the ability to absorb radiation. With absorption included the annual global mean concentration of BC in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (8–22 km) rose by up to 50% and the column loading over some remote oceanic regions more than doubled. The increase in aerosol height was particularly notable over the southeast Atlantic where biomass burning aerosol from Africa was elevated up to 1 km higher when their absorption was included. Similar effects were seen over the Arctic where the absorbing haze was transported in at higher levels and surface concentrations were halved. The absorption by BC also increased ascent over southern Asia, which tended to thicken the Asian brown cloud during the dry season but in the wet season enhancing ascent promoted deep convection and had the tendency to deplete the aerosol through wash‐out. We conclude that representing aerosol absorption accurately is important in simulating the vertical distribution, transport and abundance of aerosol in the Earth‐system that will affect their interactions with climate. Plain Language Summary: Black carbon is an important component of atmospheric aerosols as it absorbs solar radiation thereby heating the atmosphere and potentially warming climate. The localized heating can also affect clouds and atmospheric motions making the regional and climate effects more complex and uncertain. The vertical distribution and geographic spread of the aerosol is also key to how it interacts with the climate system. In this paper we highlight the fact that the absorption taking place in BC aerosols can affect its vertical ascent in the atmosphere and therefore how it becomes distributed across the globe. This self‐lofting process was demonstrated in a climate model and was particularly important in aiding the elevation and downwind transport of absorbing smoke layers from regions such as central Africa, as well as increasing the amount of BC reaching the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Key Points: Absorption of solar radiation helps to raise the altitude of black carbon aerosol by increasing buoyancy and vertical ascentThis self‐lofting mechanism has been captured in a climate model where radiative heating affects the large‐scale ascent and circulationSelf‐lofting increased the altitude and long‐range transport of black carbon to remote regions and the upper troposphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic tundra consists of diverse habitats that differ in dominant vegetation, soil moisture regimes, and relative importance of organic vs. inorganic nutrient cycling. The Arctic is also the most rapidly warming global area, with winter warming dominating. This warming is expected to have dramatic effects on tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics. We completed a meta‐analysis of 166 experimental warming study papers to evaluate the hypotheses that warming changes tundra biogeochemical cycles in a habitat‐ and seasonally specific manner and that the carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles will be differentially accelerated, leading to decoupling of elemental cycles. We found that nutrient availability and plant leaf stoichiometry responses to experimental warming were variable and overall weak, but that both gross primary productivity and the plant C pool tended to increase with growing season warming. The effects of winter warming on C fluxes did not extend into the growing season. Overall, although warming led to more consistent increases in C fluxes compared to N or P fluxes, evidence for decoupling of biogeochemical cycles is weak and any effect appears limited to heath habitats. However, data on many habitats are too sparse to be able to generalize how warming might decouple biogeochemical cycles, and too few year‐round warming studies exist to ascertain whether the season under which warming occurs alters how ecosystems respond to warming. Coordinated field campaigns are necessary to more robustly document tundra habitat‐specific responses to realistic climate warming scenarios in order to better understand the mechanisms driving this heterogeneity and identify the tundra habitats, communities, and soil pools most susceptible to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic cyclone activity is an important component of the local climate, and the frequent occurrence of extreme summer storms has raised widespread scientific interest. In this paper, we investigated the distinctive structural characteristics of intense summer Arctic cyclones by utilizing ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and employing a deep learning algorithm for cyclone detection. We found that the northern edge of Eurasia (i.e., the marginal ice zone (MIZ)) and the Alpha Ridge of Arctic Ocean (AR, i.e. central Arctic) are the two most active regions for intense Arctic cyclone activities in summer (from June to September). However, the surface conditions and coupling frequency between surface cyclone and tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are distinct over these two regions. By further analysis of 100 intense cyclone activities in these two areas, respectively, we found that cyclones in MIZ are often smaller in size but higher in intensity at their maximum intensity, and their life cycles are generally shorter. MIZ cyclones are typically accompanied by a large Eady growth rate and frontal structure in the lower troposphere and their intensification primarily attributed to the thermal‐baroclinic process. In contrast, cyclones in AR are more frequently associated with higher potential vorticity (PV) values and pronounced PV downward intrusion from the stratosphere, as well as notable "upper warm‐lower cold" structures. The downward intrusion of TPVs and stratosphere vortices contribute to a decrease in the upper and column air mass deficit, leading to the intensification of surface Arctic cyclones in these regions. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we researched intense summer storms in the Arctic. We found that there are two main areas where these storms occur: the marginal ice zone (MIZ) near Eurasia and the Alpha Ridge (AR) in the central Arctic. However, storms in these two areas have different characteristics. In the MIZ, the storms are smaller but stronger, and they do not last as long. They are mainly driven by instability in the lower troposphere. On the other hand, the storms in AR respond more to the downward intrusion of potential vorticity from the stratosphere. These storms have a unique structure where the upper air is warmer than their surroundings, and the lower air is colder than their surroundings, especially in AR. This structure makes them more intense and longer‐lasting. Exploring these differences helps us understand how Arctic storms work, and how they might be affected by climate change. Key Points: Both the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and Alpha Ridge exhibit active summer Arctic cyclone activities, especially for intense stormsIn the MIZ, baroclinic instability plays a more prominent role in the intensification and maintenance of cyclonesCyclones in Alpha Ridge are more commonly accompanied by potential vorticity downward intrusion, and "upper warm‐lower cold" structures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is an intervention on the understanding of state identity in relation to (anticipatory) changes that have occurred, are taking place, and are expected to happen in the Arctic. Focusing specifically on the Finnish state's approach to the Arctic, we offer the concept of 'anticipatory state identity' in order to comprehend the role of 'anticipation' in developing and projecting a 'state identity.' In so doing, we argue that what drives Finland's vision to project itself to be(come) an 'Arctic state' is fuelled not only by placing a firm foothold in a region of increasing geopolitical importance but also by a consensus among wide‐ranging actors in prioritising Finnish Arcticness in its foreign policy. As such, we first shed light on the concept of 'anticipatory state identity.' Then we discuss the global and regional shifts that eventually drove Finland to focus on its Arcticness. Third, we delve into the components and enactments through which Finland projects its Arctic identity. Finally, we conclude that anticipatory state identity bridges the gap between a state's imagination of itself in the future and how such imaginations are materialised and embedded within state policies through a repetitive deployment of narratives and discourses by numerous practitioners in the present. Accordingly, the applicability of the concept moves beyond the Arctic context as it enables reading of (re)forming state identity in line with its anticipatory vision. With 'anticipatory state identity', we argue that what drives Finland's vision to project itself to be(come) an 'Arctic state' is fuelled not only by placing a firm foothold in a region of increasing geopolitical importance but also by a consensus among wide‐ranging actors in prioritising Finnish Arcticness in its foreign policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming faster than the global average due to several processes that, once combined, lead to so‐called Arctic Amplification. Part of this anomalous polar warming comes from an intense reduction in ice cover allowing heat into the ocean, warming the Arctic ocean near the surface, hence melting more ice. A joint effort by several climate modeling groups called the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) aims at better understanding Arctic Amplification through a coordinated set of climate simulations. Among this ensemble of simulations is a set of centennial simulations performed with fully coupled state‐of‐the‐art climate models. In these experiments, Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice are forced to reach specific states in order to better isolate Arctic Amplification and sea ice loss from the rest of anthropogenic global warming. In this paper, we propose a simple technique to nudge sea ice models to specific states such as prescribed by PAMIP. This new method combines advantages from existing techniques to improve the control over the extent and the thickness of the ice. We document how our novel method produces atmospheric warming and circulation responses that are more consistent with previously published results than the existing techniques. Key Points: Already established sea ice nudging method leads to issues in the partitioning between sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT)New hybrid nudging method significantly improves capture of both SIC and SIT targets for Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project, in particular for Arctic sea iceHybrid scheme increases Arctic turbulent heat flux and warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid extensive magmatism may have a profound effect on global climate by liberating and releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere through contact metamorphism of lithologically heterogeneous host rocks and degassing of magma and associated lava flows. The high Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard offers accessible, superbly exposed outcrops revealing Early Cretaceous magmatism associated with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province (HALIP). In this contribution, we investigate the onshore‐offshore intrusive complex of central Spitsbergen formed due to HALIP activity, that is, the Diabasodden Suite. This is the most "data‐rich" part of Svalbard due to past petroleum exploration and research drilling. In this area, the predominantly dolerite intrusions are emplaced in a range of host rocks ranging from Permian carbonate‐dominated successions to organic‐rich shale‐dominated successions of Middle Triassic and Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous age. Two hundred sixty five individual igneous intrusions, covering 72 km2, are exposed onshore in the study area. This equates to approximately 0.14–2.5 km3 of emplaced magma. In addition, subsurface characterization using borehole, seismic and magnetic data indicates that an area of additional ca. 3,000 km2 is affected by magmatism (magma volume 3.2–195.2 km3). Wireline logs in boreholes characterize both intrusions and associated aureoles. Aureoles with very low resistivity indicate occurrence of organic‐rich shales suggesting past fluid circulation and de‐gassing. This study forms the foundation for quantifying HALIP‐related magmatism in the data‐poorer parts of Svalbard, and other circum‐Arctic basins. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions are known to influence global climate today. In the past, even greater volcanic eruptions have happened than we know today, and some of these likely caused major global climatic shifts and contributed to mass extinctions. Volcanic eruptions are fed by a complex of sub‐surface magma pathways. If magma in such "plumbing systems" does not reach the Earth's surface, it will solidify horizontally (as sills) or vertically (as dykes). Together dykes and sills form an igneous complex that heats up the surrounding rocks and may cause the release of gas during this process. If this happens relatively near to the surface, this gas may escape to the atmosphere and contribute to global climate change. The key variables that control the extent of climate effects include the emplacement depth, the spatial extent of the magmatism and the lithology of the host rocks. In this paper, we examine the igneous complex of dykes and sills in Spitsbergen in the high Arctic. We use borehole, seismic and field data to calculate how much magma was emplaced in this area and discuss whether it may have contributed to global climate change approximately 125 million years ago. Key Points: Igneous intrusions are well exposed in central Spitsbergen across a range of host rocksTwo‐hundred sixty five intrusions cover 72 km2 of the onshore part, and a further 3,000 km2 of intrusions are characterized by geophysical dataIgneous intrusions and associated aureoles are characterized by wireline data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of radiative feedbacks and emissions scenarios in controlling surface warming patterns is challenging to quantify across model generations. We analyze three variants of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with differing equilibrium climate sensitivities under identical CMIP5 historical and high‐emissions scenarios. CESM1, our base model, exhibits Arctic‐amplified warming with the least warming in the Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. A variant of CESM1 with enhanced extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks shows slightly increased late‐21st century warming at all latitudes. In the next‐generation model, CESM2, global‐mean warming is also slightly greater, but the warming is zonally redistributed in a pattern mirroring cloud and surface albedo feedbacks. However, if the nominally equivalent CMIP6 scenario is applied to CESM2, the redistributed warming pattern is preserved, but global‐mean warming is significantly greater. These results demonstrate how model structural differences and scenario differences combine to produce differences in climate projections across model generations. Plain Language Summary: Earth System Models are used to project climate change through the 21st century. Such projections are constrained by a range of assumptions about emissions of greenhouse gases as well as other climate‐relevant human activities like deforestation and emissions of aerosols. These assumptions are carefully evaluated and represented in an emissions scenario. In a coordinated set of experiments, a given emissions scenario is applied to a number of different Earth System Models to test differences in climate projections that arise from physical (or "structural") differences among the models. However, over time, models are updated and improved, and emissions scenarios are updated as well. This continuous updating makes it difficult to track whether a new set of climate projections is different from its predecessor due to model changes or due to scenario changes. In this paper, we disentangle these two factors, clarifying the role of each. For the Earth System Model that we use, the emissions scenario largely controls the amount of global‐mean warming projected for the 21st century, but the model or structural differences matter greatly for the regional patterns of warming. Key Points: Higher equilibrium climate sensitivity, from more positive cloud feedbacks, only slightly increases 21st century transient warmingCloud and surface albedo feedbacks redistribute warming from the middle and high northern latitudes to lower latitudesThese warming pattern differences result from feedback differences, not CMIP5 to CMIP6 forcing scenario differences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present ΔO2/Ar‐based estimates of mixed layer net community production (NCP) from three summer cruises in the North American Arctic and Subarctic oceans. Coupling shipboard underway and discrete observations with output from an ocean circulation model, we correct the NCP estimates for vertical mixing fluxes impacting the surface O2 budget. Large positive mixing fluxes, exceeding 100 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, were derived in regions of strong wind‐driven mixing, such as the Labrador Sea (LS), and in the physically‐dynamic Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In contrast, flux corrections were small (<10 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, on average) in the density‐stratified Baffin Bay, where mixing was low, and parts of the well‐mixed Hudson Strait (HS), where vertical O2 gradients were weak. The distribution of corrected NCP was highly heterogenous across the study region, reflecting varying contributions of nutrient supply, freshwater input and sea ice dynamics. Elevated NCP was apparent in the LS, HS, and nearshore regions influenced by glacial meltwater and recent ice retreat. Low NCP and localized net heterotrophy occurred in Baffin Bay, and near strong freshwater and organic matter sources in Hudson Bay and the Queen Maud Gulf. A multiple linear regression model developed using available oceanographic data explained ∼58% of the observed NCP variability. Our work demonstrates the spatially explicit influence of vertical mixing on ΔO2/Ar‐based NCP calculations across varied hydrographic conditions, and presents a novel approach to account for this process. This study contributes new knowledge of biological productivity distributions in under‐sampled, rapidly changing, high‐latitude waters. Plain Language Summary: Net community production (NCP; i.e., net organic matter production) constrains the ocean's ability to support marine ecosystems and remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A common approach to estimating NCP involves measurements of upper ocean oxygen (O2) concentrations. However, while vertical mixing may be a significant component of the surface water O2 budget in some regions, applications of this approach typically do not quantify the magnitude of this flux, which can lead to potentially inaccurate NCP estimates. In this paper, we introduce a method combining ship‐based measurements and the output from an ocean circulation model to refine NCP calculations for vertical mixing effects in North American Arctic and Subarctic oceans. The data set reveals high NCP in the Labrador Sea (Inuktitut: Lâbradorip Imappinga), North Atlantic, Hudson Strait (Ikirasarjuaq) and northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), and low values in Baffin Bay (Saknirutiak Imanga) and southern CAA. Riverine freshwater input to Hudson Bay (Tasiujarjuar) and the Queen Maud Gulf (Ugjulik) can reduce local NCP, while glacial meltwater may stimulate NCP elsewhere. Overall, this work provides a new NCP data set in an under‐sampled region. Similar studies will be necessary to document changes in biological productivity in response to changing environmental conditions in polar waters. Key Points: Ship‐based observations and numerical model output were used to correct net community production (NCP) estimates for vertical mixing biasesCorrected NCP was correlated with nutrient supply and sea ice dynamics, as reflected in a multiple linear regressionFreshwater from glaciers and rivers may stimulate productivity or drive local respiration through nutrient and organic carbon inputs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a key role in Arctic amplification and stratospheric ozone destruction in polar regions. In this paper, we used the CALIPSO data to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic PSCs from 2006 to 2021. We found that Arctic PSCs mainly appear in December, peak in late December and early January, disappearing in late February and early March. PSCs can extend from heights near the tropopause to over 25 km. However, there is the lowest fraction of PSCs in the 2014/2015 winter. This study found that the temperature in the 2014/2015 winter was warmer than the 15‐year average temperature, with the lowest temperature slightly below the PSCs formation temperature of about 5 K. The formation of the Ural blocking high accompanied by the poleward propagation of the planetary wave caused a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event on 3 January 2015, during which the warm air entered the polar vortex and divided it into two lobes. Additionally, a reduction in SO2 column mass density before the SSW event resulted PSCs occurring with a frequency of only 0.148 and dissipating rapidly in December. Moreover, the concentration of H2O and HNO3 in the gravitational settling process of PSCs decreased by 20–50%, the reduction of condensation nuclei made PSCs with the highest frequency of 0.074 in February appear briefly and then disappear. The chemical and dynamic analysis of PSCs formation is needed to further understand the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic PSCs and to better predict future Arctic amplification and ozone destruction. Plain Language Summary: Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) influence polar ozone depletion by providing a reaction interface and also influencing surface temperature changes through longwave radiation effects. Previous studies on polar stratospheric clouds mainly focus on the Antarctic, and few studies on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Arctic PSCs over long timescales. Therefore, by studying the spatial and temporal distribution of PSCs in the Arctic, we found that the spatial and temporal distribution of PSCs in the Arctic has obvious interannual variation compared with that in the Antarctic. The stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occur almost every 2 years in the Arctic cause great interannual variations of the Arctic polar vortex and thus affect the distribution of Arctic PSCs. Moreover, there is the least and almost none occurrence of PSCs in the 2014/2015 winter, the chemical and dynamic analysis found that SSW, decrease of SO2, H2O, and HNO3 concentration are not conducive to the formation of PSCs. It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of Arctic PSCs formation and provide a new basis for further prediction of Arctic amplification and ozone destruction. Key Points: The fraction of Arctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) during 2014/2015 winter was the lowest observed in the past 15 yearsThe splitting of polar vortex and the rise in temperature caused by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) inhibited the formation of PSCsThe decrease in stratospheric sulfur dioxide, nitric acid, and water was unfavorable for the formation of PSCs before and after the SSW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced the frequent and severe fires in recent years. Due to the unique geography and vegetation type in Arctic region, the fire trend and its driving mechanism are different from other regions and still unclear. This study investigated the fire trends across Arctic region based on Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product MCD64A1 during 2001–2020. In addition, the burned area change was attributed at spatial and temporal scales based on 15 natural and anthropogenic factors. Results show that the average burned area in Arctic region during 2001–2020 is 31.2 × 103 km2, with a maximum of 51.9 × 103 km2 in 2019. The change of burned area in Arctic region is spatially heterogeneous, with a significant increasing trend (Z > 1.96) in central Russia and a significant decreasing trend (Z < −1.96) in western Russia. There is a clear seasonality in the occurrence of fires in the Arctic, with a peak in the summer months and almost no fires in the winter. Relative humidity has the largest explanatory power for the spatial variation of burned area (q = 0.487), followed by vapor pressure deficit (q = 0.475) and land surface temperature (q = 0.367). The combined effect of precipitation and land surface temperature is the most powerful interaction (q = 0.587) to explain the spatial variation of burned area. The significant increase in time‐series burned area is primarily driven by the decrease of relative humidity. The results of this study are helpful to understand the fire trends and the contribution of climate change to Arctic fires. Plain Language Summary: In recent years, the Arctic has experienced frequent and severe fires. Due to the unique geographical location and vegetation type of the Arctic, it is necessary to understand its fire trends and driving mechanisms. This paper explores the spatial and temporal trends of fires in the Arctic from 2001 to 2020 based on the MODIS satellite‐based burned area product MCD64A1, and considers 15 natural and human influences to explore the driving mechanisms. The results show that the Arctic region burned an average of 31.2 × 103 km2 in 2001–2020, with the highest burned area of 51.9 × 103 km2 in 2019, and that burning events were mostly concentrated in summer. The burned area increases significantly in central Russia and decreases significantly in the west. Relative humidity is the most influential factor in the spatial and temporal variability of Arctic fires, and precipitation and land surface temperature have the greatest combined effect on Arctic fires. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of the process of Arctic fire change and the impact of climate change on Arctic fires. Key Points: The burned area significantly increased (decreased) in central (western) RussiaThe interaction between precipitation and land surface temperature has the greatest effect on Arctic firesThe change in burned area is mainly driven by the change in relative humidity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The centennial response of land‐terminating glaciers in Greenland to climate change is largely unknown. Yet, such information is important to understand ongoing changes and for projecting the future evolution of Arctic subpolar glaciers, meltwater runoff, and sediment fluxes. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology, and sedimentology of prominent moraine ridges and the proglacial areas of ice cap outlet glaciers on the Qaanaaq peninsula (Piulip Nunaa). We determine geometric changes of glaciers since the neoglacial maximum; the Little Ice Age (LIA), and we compare glacier behaviour during the LIA with that of the present day. There has been very little change in the rate of volume loss of each outlet glacier since the LIA compared with the rate between 2000 and 2019. However, the percentage of each glacier that is likely composed of cold‐based ice has increased since the LIA, typically by 20%. The LIA moraines comprise subrounded, striated, and faceted clasts that evidence subglacial transport, and outwash plains, flutes, kames, and eskers that evidence subglacial motion and meltwater within temperate ice. Contrastingly, contemporary ice margins and their convex ice surfaces comprise pronounced primary foliation, ephemeral supraglacial drainage, sediment drapes from thrust plane fractures, and an absence of open crevasses and moulins. These calculations and observations together lead us to interpret that these outlet glaciers have transitioned towards an increasingly cold‐based thermal regime despite a warming regional climate. Thermal regime transitions control glacier dynamics and therefore should be incorporated into glacier evolution models, especially where polythermal glaciers prevail and where climate is changing rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and Subarctic environments are among the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Increases in liquid precipitation and changes in snowmelt onset are cited as the main drivers of change in streamflow and water temperature patterns in some of the largest rivers of the Canadian Arctic. However, in spite of this evidence, there is still a lack of research on water temperature, particularly in the eastern Canadian Arctic. In this paper, we use the CEQUEAU hydrological‐water temperature model to derive consistent long‐term daily flow and stream temperature time series in Aux Mélèzes River, a non‐regulated basin (41 297 km2) in the eastern Canadian subarctic. The model was forced using reanalysis data from the fifth‐generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5) from 1979 to 2020. We used water temperature derived from thermal infrared (TIR) images as reference data to calibrate CEQUEAU's water temperature model, with calibration performed using single‐site, multi‐site, and upscaling factors approaches. Our results indicate that the CEQUEAU model can simulate streamflow patterns in the river and shows excellent spatiotemporal performance with Kling‐Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric >0.8. Using the best‐performing flow simulation as one of the inputs allowed us to produce synthetic daily water temperature time series throughout the basin, with the multi‐site calibration approach being the most accurate with root mean square errors (RMSE) <2.0°C. The validation of the water temperature simulations with a three‐year in situ data logger dataset yielded an RMSE = 1.38°C for the summer temperatures, highlighting the robustness of the calibrated parameters and the chosen calibration strategy. This research demonstrates the reliability of TIR imagery and ERA5 as sources of model calibration data in data‐sparse environments and underlines the CEQUEAU model as an assessment tool, opening the door to its use to assess climate change impact on the arctic regions of Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discrete element method (DEM) can provide detailed descriptions of sea ice dynamics that explicitly model floes and discontinuities in the ice, which can be challenging to represent accurately with current models. However, floe-scale stresses that inform lead formation in sea ice are difficult to calculate in current DEM implementations. In this paper, we use the ParticLS software library to develop a DEM that models the sea ice as a collection of discrete rigid particles that are initially bonded together using a cohesive beam model that approximates the response of an Euler-Bernoulli beam located between particle centroids. Ice fracture and lead formation are determined based on the value of a non-local Cauchy stress state around each particle and a Mohr-Coulomb fracture model. Therefore, large ice floes are modeled as continuous objects made up of many bonded particles that can interact with each other, deform, and fracture. We generate particle configurations by discretizing the ice in MODIS satellite imagery into polygonal floes that fill the observed ice shape and extent. The model is tested on ice advecting through an idealized channel and through Nares Strait. The results indicate that the bonded DEM model is capable of qualitatively capturing the dynamic sea ice patterns through constrictions such as ice bridges, arch kinematic features, and lead formation. In addition, we apply spatial and temporal scaling analyses to illustrate the model's ability to capture heterogeneity and intermittency in the simulated ice deformation. Plain Language Summary Numerical models of sea ice give researchers important tools to study how the Arctic is changing. Discrete element method (DEM) models idealize sea ice as a collection of individual rigid bodies, or "particles," that can interact with each other independently, and can capture the discontinuities and geometric force concentrations in ice that are common at small scales. In this paper, we extend recent DEM models and evaluate a non-local stress state within the modeled ice (bonded DEM particles) to determine when the ice should fracture. As a result, the model simulates large pieces of ice that can break into smaller pieces, or floes, composed of many still-bonded particles. This allows us to represent both discrete fractures, and emergent aggregate behavior of ice as it deforms. As an example, we simulate ice advecting through Nares Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Recent evidence has shown that Arctic regions have warmed about twice as much as elsewhere on the planet over the last few decades, and that high‐latitude permafrost–periglacial processes and hydrological systems are notably responsive to rising temperatures. The aim of this paper is to report on the thermal regime of islands located along the Lena River floodplain, upstream of the city of Yakutsk (eastern Siberia). Four islands were monitored using waterproof dataloggers and continuous monitoring of frozen soil in contact with ice breakup of the Lena River. For each of these islands, we measured: (a) ground surface temperature, air and frozen soil temperatures at different depths; and (b) submersion duration during the flood. Our results show that within a zone of thick and continuous permafrost, the Lena floodplain is notably heterogeneous, with a combination of permanently and seasonally frozen islands. The ice breakups seem to have a negligible impact on the ground thermal regime. Our study confirms that relatively young (<30 years old) islands, composed of fine sand material, appear less prone to permafrost formation compared to older islands with ice‐rich silty material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic have for millennia relied on freshwaters for drinking water and freshwater species that comprise important subsistence harvests, which promotes a strong connection to the land and unique understanding of organisms and ecosystem processes and changes. Despite the importance of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services to Arctic Indigenous communities, there have been limited attempts to summarise available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) regarding Arctic freshwater systems and to understand how conservation can benefit from this knowledge base.This paper presents a systematic review of literature documenting circumpolar Arctic IK with a focus on freshwater biodiversity in Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), Russia, and the U.S.A. (Alaska). Standardised search terms and methodologies were used to locate relevant documents using Google Scholar and Google Advanced search engines. Thematic coding was used to identify freshwater biodiversity themes within the identified documents.Documented IK of freshwater biodiversity was found from all five geographic regions and included data on both species presence and habitat changes with potential to affect biodiversity. Canada had the highest number of relevant documents (n = 127), followed by the U.S.A. (Alaska; n = 116), Fennoscandia (n = 38), Russia (n = 27), and Greenland (n = 5). The number of relevant documents with IK published per year was highest in most recent years, from 2010 onwards, in all geographic regions.Fish represented the highest number of faunal observations with 59 species observed, approximately half of which were Salmonidae (29 species). Local‐scale assessment of fish diversity found observations of the highest number of species (11–25) in Alaska, and individual observations of 6–10 species were found throughout Alaska, mainland areas of Canada, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia. Documented IK also contributed new information on historical fish diversity and indicated local‐scale loss or gain of species. Such information is of vital importance to provide long‐term records of fish composition and abundance, especially when this information does not exist in other knowledge bases such as western science datasets.Indigenous Knowledge included observations of changes in freshwater and terrestrial habitat associated with a warming climate, such as: decreasing water levels and more draining/drying of lakes and rivers, a shorter period of ice cover (late freeze and early break‐up), decreasing ice thickness, and increasing occurrence of permafrost thaw and eroding banks. Such observations by those who actively rely on Arctic freshwater ecosystem services are important because they signify that change is occurring and that action is needed to mitigate the impacts on freshwater habitats and the biodiversity therein.This study demonstrates that previously documented IK provides valuable information towards determining freshwater biodiversity baselines and patterns of change in the circumpolar Arctic. However, these results do not sufficiently cover the depth and breadth of IK on freshwater biodiversity and ecology held by Indigenous communities. Further work incorporating Indigenous worldviews around freshwater ecology would provide context to the knowledge collected and a deeper understanding of Arctic circumpolar freshwater environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both historical observations and recent modeling studies reveal a faster warming in the Arctic compared to the Antarctic. To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in this warming asymmetry, we simulate the climate mean state and climate response to doubled CO2 under different climate mean ACC states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP) with the Community Earth System Model. From closed to open DP, a stronger climate mean ACC leads to a stronger climate mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic in the climate mean state. The less climate mean sea ice coverage in a warmer Arctic implies less extensive sea ice melting under global warming. This causes a reduced asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to the doubled CO2. Plain Language Summary: To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in the asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming, we conduct two numerical model experiments. We consider two different climate states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP). The former yields a weak ACC, while the latter results in a strong ACC. A stronger climate mean ACC leads to a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic, due primarily to a concurrent stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The diminished coverage of sea ice in the warmer Arctic signifies a reduction in sea ice melting under global warming. Consequently, this leads to a reduction in the asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to doubled CO2. These findings highlight a significant impact of the ACC on the global climate mean state and polar warming asymmetry, and shed light on the uncertainties in the coordinated interaction between major ocean circulation systems (e.g., AMOC and ACC) and on those in inter‐hemisphere interactions. Key Points: A stronger climate mean Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) is accompanied by a stronger mean Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation (AMOC)A stronger climate mean AMOC results in a warmer Arctic with less climate mean sea ice coverageThe less asymmetric polar warming in the presence of stronger climate mean ACC and AMOC is largely due to less sea ice melting in Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel sub‐sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial‐condition ensemble climate simulations. Thermodynamic effects of Arctic warming are more prominent in Europe while dynamic effects are more prominent in Asia/East Asia. This explains less‐severe cold extremes in Europe but more‐severe cold extremes in Asia/East Asia. For Northern Eurasia, dynamic effects overwhelm the effect of increased moisture from a warming Arctic, leading to an overall decrease in precipitation. We show that the response scales linearly with the dynamic response. However, caution is needed when interpreting inter‐model differences in the response because of internal variability, which can largely explain the inter‐model spread in the NAO and SH response in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Plain Language Summary: The projected loss of Arctic sea‐ice under 2°C global warming will cause large warming in the Arctic region and climate and weather anomalies outside the Arctic. The warming in the Arctic will mean warmer airmasses coming from the Arctic and also more moisture from the open Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, it will also change atmospheric circulation. These effects together will determine the impacts of Arctic warming. In this study, we introduce a novel sub‐sampling method to isolate atmospheric circulation change in response to the Arctic warming. The method involves selecting members of simulations from the experiment with future Arctic sea‐ice conditions, the average of which is equal to the average of the members of simulations in the experiment with present‐day Arctic sea‐ice conditions. We found that atmospheric circulation change in European regions is relatively weak so that warming effects will dominate the climate and weather response there. On the other hand, atmospheric circulation change will dominate the climate and weather response in East Eurasia. We also found that stronger atmospheric circulation changes will generally increase the response to the Arctic warming. We suggest caution when assessing whether different responses in different models can be interpreted as true differences in model physics. Key Points: A novel sub‐sampling method is introduced to isolate the role of dynamics in the response to projected Arctic sea‐ice lossA dynamical Siberian High response dominates the temperature response over East Eurasia while that of the North Atlantic Oscillation is weakInter‐model differences in Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project likely contain a large fraction of internal variability due to the unconstrained dynamic effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming and subsequent landscape transformations result in rapid ecological change in Arctic freshwaters. Here we provide a synthesis of the diversity of benthic diatoms, plankton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish in Arctic freshwaters.We developed a multi‐organism measure of α diversity to characterise circumpolar spatial patterns and their environmental correlates, and we assessed ecoregion‐level β diversity for all organism groups across the Arctic.Alpha diversity was lowest at high latitudes and elevations and where dispersal barriers exist. Diversity was positively related to temperature, and both temperature and connectivity limited diversity on high latitude islands. Beta diversity was highly variable among ecoregions for most organism groups, ranging from 0 (complete similarity) to 1 (complete dissimilarity). The high degree of dissimilarity within many ecoregions illustrates the uniqueness of many Arctic freshwater communities.Northward range expansion of freshwater taxa into Arctic regions may lead to increased competition for cold‐stenothermic and cold‐adapted species, and ultimately lead to the extinction of unique Arctic species. Societal responses to predicted impacts include: (1) actions to improve detection of changes (e.g., harmonised monitoring, remote sensing) and engagement with Arctic residents and Indigenous Peoples; and (2) actions to reduce the impact of unwanted changes (e.g., reductions of CO2 emissions, action against the spread of invasive species).Current Arctic freshwater monitoring shows large gaps in spatial coverage, while time series data are scarce. Arctic countries should develop an intensified, long‐term monitoring programme with routine reporting. Such an approach will allow detection of long‐term changes in water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem services of Arctic freshwaters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models. Plain Language Summary: We studied how ocean heat transport (OHT) affects decade‐timescale variability in the Arctic climate using a high‐resolution climate model. Specifically, we compared the impacts of heat entering the Arctic Ocean through the Nordic Seas from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait from the Pacific. Though more heat is transported from the Atlantic, Arctic surface temperature and sea ice respond more strongly to changes in OHT through the Bering Strait. Unlike Atlantic OHT, changes in Bering Strait OHT impact local air temperatures directly, without compensating changes in atmospheric heat transport. Proper representation of the Arctic's sensitivity to future increased OHT may thus rely on correctly representing OHT through Bering Strait, which is challenging in coarse‐resolution ocean models. Key Points: Ocean heat transport variability through the Bering Strait has an outsized effect on Arctic sea ice cover and surface temperatureAtlantic ocean heat transport anomalies into the Arctic are compensated by atmospheric heat transport anomalies on decadal timescales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2 emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink‐to‐source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming rapidly, leading to an acceleration of carbon exchange across tundra and boreal ecosystems. These changing flows of carbon can be difficult to detect using traditional observing systems. We propose that measurement systems which observe Arctic ecosystems continuously from a quasi‐GEO orbit can more accurately detect these important changes, such that unexpected and dangerous feedbacks to climate warming can be monitored and accounted for. Key Points: The Arctic Fourier Transform Spectrometer Investigation (AURORA) mission concept addresses GHG sampling limitations in the ArcticAURORA uses a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) to increase repeat frequency, and a panchromatic iFTS for SWIR O2 and CO2 bands (0.7–2.5 μm)Simulation experiments show potential benefits of increased sampling frequency for grid scale detection of early cold season CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predation is an important ecological process that can significantly impact the maintenance of ecosystem services. In arctic environments, the relative ecological importance of predation is thought to be increasing due to climate change, partly because of increased productivity with rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding predator–prey interactions in arctic ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of these northern regions. Network theory provides a framework for quantifying the structures of ecological interactions. In this study, we use dietary observations on mammalian and avian predators in a high arctic region, including isolated peninsulas on Ellesmere Island and north Greenland, to construct bipartite trophic networks. We quantify the complexity, specialization, and nested as well as modular structures of these networks and also determine if these properties varied among the peninsulas. Mammal prey remains were the dominant diet item for all predators, but there was spatial variation in diet composition among peninsulas. The predator–prey networks were less complex, had more specialized interactions, and were more nested and more modular than random expectations. However, the networks displayed only moderate levels of modularity. Predator species had less specialized interactions with prey than prey had with predators. All network properties differed among the peninsulas, which highlights that ecosystems often show complex responses to environmental characteristics. We suggest that gaining knowledge about spatial variation in the characteristics of predator–prey interactions can enhance our ability to manage ecosystems exposed to environmental perturbations, particularly in high arctic environments subject to rapid environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The rapidly changing Arctic is ideal for investigating uncertainties in climate projections. Despite the challenges of collecting data in this region, an unprecedented large‐scale survey of shorebirds has been conducted over the last 30 years. Our study aimed to (1) develop probabilistic estimates for the change in suitable habitat for 10 Arctic shorebird species in Canada by 2075 and (2) assess the contribution of modelling decisions to the uncertainty in these estimates. Location: Arctic Canada. Methods: To evaluate uncertainty, we considered six classes of modelling decisions, yielding 216 unique projections for each species. We tested three decisions that are less commonly explored − the pool of candidate variables, a method for selecting variables, and the maximum distance of tree line dispersal, as well as the modelling algorithm, carbon emissions scenario, and global circulation model. We used a bootstrapping approach, creating a probability distribution for the proportional change in suitable habitat for each species. Results: Our findings indicated a substantial risk for 8/10 species to lose over half of their suitable breeding habitat, but this projection is much less certain than has been described previously. While much uncertainty is unexplained, we were surprised that the largest source of uncertainty among our modelling decisions was from our choice of methods for variable selection, that the other modelling decisions were relatively small sources of uncertainty, overshadowing other modelling decisions. Main Conclusions: While most scenarios predict a northward shift and significant habitat loss for Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada will remain an important refuge because in many other Arctic regions, there is no land farther north for these species to shift into. A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty is important for deciding if future projections can or should be used when planning climate‐resilient protected area networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately representing mixed‐phase clouds (MPCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is critical for capturing climate sensitivity and Arctic amplification. Secondary ice production (SIP), can significantly increase ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in MPCs, affecting cloud properties and processes. Here, we introduce a machine‐learning (ML) approach, called Random Forest SIP (RaFSIP), to parameterize SIP in stratiform MPCs. RaFSIP is trained on 16 grid points with 10‐km horizontal spacing derived from a 2‐year simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including explicit SIP microphysics. Designed for a temperature range of 0 to −25°C, RaFSIP simplifies the description of rime splintering, ice‐ice collisional break‐up, and droplet‐shattering using only a limited set of inputs. RaFSIP was evaluated offline before being integrated into WRF, demonstrating its stable online performance in a 1‐year simulation keeping the same model setup as during training. Even when coupled with the 50‐km grid spacing domain of WRF, RaFSIP reproduces ICNC predictions within a factor of 3 when compared to simulations with explicit SIP microphysics. The coupled WRF‐RaFSIP scheme replicates regions of enhanced SIP and accurately maps ICNCs and liquid water content, particularly at temperatures above −10°C. Uncertainties in RaFSIP minimally impact surface cloud radiative forcing in the Arctic, resulting in radiative biases under 3 Wm−2 compared to simulations with detailed microphysics. Although the performance of RaFSIP in convective clouds remains untested, its adaptable nature allows for data set augmentation to address this aspect. This framework opens possibilities for GCM simplification and process description through physics‐guided ML algorithms. Plain Language Summary: Being able to correctly simulate the amount of ice and liquid in clouds is essential for accurate predictions of the cloud radiative forcing in the climatologically sensitive polar regions. A number of collisional processes between ice and liquid particles in clouds, known as secondary ice production, can significantly enhance the ice crystal number concentrations contained in them. This enhancement is often accompanied by a decrease in the cloud liquid water content, resulting in less opaque clouds to incoming solar radiation, which, in turn, can cause a cloud‐induced warming at the surface. Currently most global climate models are missing the description of the most important secondary ice production processes, which can lead to a biased radiative impact of clouds at the surface. To address this, we propose using a machine learning algorithm trained on high‐resolution model outputs to include the effect of ice multiplication in large‐scale climate models. The machine learning framework effectively captures the physical processes underlying secondary ice production in stratiform clouds using only a few inputs readily available in model frameworks. This approach has the potential to improve model predictions bringing them closer to the observed cloud phase partitioning. Key Points: A random‐forest parameterization for secondary ice production is developed using outputs from a 10‐km horizontal grid spacing simulationCloud phase partitioning agrees within a factor of 3, with radiative biases below 3 Wm−2 compared to the detailed microphysics simulationThe scheme can be adjusted to coarser resolutions typical of climate models without losing computational efficiency and numerical stability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread High Arctic Large Igneous Province (HALIP) exhibits prolonged melting over more than 50 Myr, an observation that is difficult to reconcile with the classic view that large igneous provinces (LIPs) originate from melting in plume heads. Hence, the suggested plume‐related origin and classification of HALIP as a LIP have been questioned. Here, we use numerical models that include melting and melt migration to investigate a rising plume interacting with lithosphere of variable thickness, that is, a basin‐to‐craton setting applicable to the Arctic. Models reveal that melt migration introduces significant spatial and temporal variations in melt volumes and pulses of melt production, including protracted melting for at least about 30–40 Myr, because of the dynamic feedback between migrating melt and local lithosphere thinning. For HALIP, plume material deflected from underneath the Greenland craton can re‐activate melting zones below the previously plume‐influenced Sverdrup Basin after a melt‐free period of about 10–15 Myr, even though the plume is already ∼500 km away. Hence, actively melting zones do not necessarily represent the location of the deeper plume stem at a given time, especially for secondary pulses. Additional processes such as (minor) plume flux variations or local lithospheric extension may alter the timing and volume of HALIP pulses, but are to first order not required to reproduce the long‐lived and multi‐pulse magmatism of HALIP. Since melting zones are always plume‐fed, we would expect HALIP magmatism to exhibit plume‐related trace element signatures throughout time, potentially shifting from mostly tholeiitic toward more alkalic compositions. Plain Language Summary: Typically, the arrival of a large mantle upwelling ("mantle plume") is expected to cause catastrophic large‐scale volcanism that lasts a few million years. However, a massive past volcanic event now distributed onshore and offshore across the Arctic (the High Arctic Large Igneous Province—HALIP) defies this definition. This wide‐spread magmatism exhibits dates spanning more than 50 Myr, with several pulses of activity. Based on this prolonged magmatism, it has been questioned whether all of it can be attributed to a mantle plume, despite the geochemistry of basalts indicating a plume source. Here, we show that a plume can cause prolonged and multi‐pulse magmatism if it interacts with an increase in lithosphere thickness. Once the plume moves below the thicker lithosphere, hot plume material is channeled along the base of the lithosphere toward the adjacent thinner part, where it can reactivate previous melting regions. At this time, the active plume can be about 500 km away from the melting region, hence plume‐related melt cannot be used as a proxy for the plume position at the given time. Based on the models, we suggest that the prolonged HALIP magmatism was caused by a plume interacting with the edge of a craton. Key Points: Mantle plumes interacting with changes in lithosphere thickness at craton edges can cause prolonged melting with pulses in the same regionRejuvenated melting happens underneath previously melt‐affected thinned lithosphere several hundred km downstream of the plume stemThe timing and duration of rejuvenated melting in models correspond to and therefore may explain observations of magmatic pulses from High Arctic Large Igneous Province [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models struggle to accurately simulate observed sea ice thickness changes, which could be partially due to inadequate representation of thermodynamic processes. We analyzed co‐located winter observations of the Arctic sea ice from the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate for evaluating and improving thermodynamic processes in sea ice models, aiming to enable more accurate predictions of the warming climate system. We model the sea ice and snow heat conduction for observed transects forced by realistic boundary conditions to understand the impact of the non‐resolved meter‐scale snow and sea ice thickness heterogeneity on horizontal heat conduction. Neglecting horizontal processes causes underestimating the conductive heat flux of 10% or more. Furthermore, comparing model results to independent temperature observations reveals a ∼5 K surface temperature overestimation over ice thinner than 1 m, attributed to shortcomings in parameterizing surface turbulent and radiative fluxes rather than the conduction. Assessing the model deficiencies and parameterizing these unresolved processes is required for improved sea ice representation. Plain Language Summary: Numerical sea ice models rely on conceptual simplifications of the sea ice and snow conditions observed in the Arctic and Southern Ocean. In particular, we cannot account for the variations in sea ice thickness and snow depth at the meter scale because we have limited computing capabilities and lack a detailed understanding of the processes defining how the sea ice system evolves. Furthermore, when designing sea ice models, we assume that the heat can flow only vertically, while in reality, this exchange is also horizontal and depends on the local topography. Thanks to observations collected during the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition, we can better quantify model errors when using thermodynamic approximations. Our findings suggest that slightly more heat flows through the sea ice system than we can simulate with a simplified sea ice model and that the surface temperature of the model is too warm for thin ice and snow conditions. Learning the nature of these errors is useful because we could formulate corrections for our models, investigate the occurrence of climate feedback mechanisms, and possibly provide more reliable predictions about the current state of the sea ice and its future evolution, which is currently heavily impacted by global warming. Key Points: Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate observations enable improved thermodynamic process understanding and representation in sea ice modelsResolved meter‐scale ice and snow thickness heterogeneity and horizontal heat conduction enhance conductive heat flux by up to 10% in modelsA positive surface temperature model bias up to 5 K suggests a misrepresentation of the surface energy balance over thin ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is notable as a region where the greatest rate of increase in precipitation associated with global warming is anticipated. The Arctic precipitation simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models showed a strong increasing trend since the 1980s. We found that the forcing factor of the trend is a combination of the continued strengthening of greenhouse gas forcing and the leveling off of aerosol forcing dominated in earlier periods. From an energetic perspective, we found that the increased atmospheric radiative cooling and reduced sensible heat transport from lower latitudes contributed equally to the recent increase in Arctic precipitation. The combination of these two energetic factors suggests a doubling of the Arctic amplification factor for precipitation relative to that for temperature. Future Arctic precipitation will change in proportion to the temperature change, and the fractional contributions of the energetic factors will remain stable across various scenarios. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic region is inherently a low‐precipitation area. However, because of global warming, precipitation is expected to increase substantially in the Arctic region compared with the global average when viewed as a percentage change from the original precipitation. This severely affects climate change in the Arctic environment. The latest climate model simulations show that there has been a rapid increase in precipitation in the Arctic region in recent decades. The driving factors behind the rapid increase are the effects of the accelerating growth of greenhouse gas concentrations, which were previously suppressed by the increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions before the 1980s. Based on the heat budget of the atmosphere, we identified important factors contributing to these precipitation changes. These include enhanced radiative cooling (responding locally to increased air temperature) and reduced heat transport from lower latitudes due to greater temperature increases at higher latitudes. Future precipitation will change in proportion to the temperature change while maintaining consistent fractional contributions across different scenarios. Key Points: Trends in Arctic precipitation in the recent and future decades are examined from multimodel simulationsThe recent rapid increase is driven by accelerating greenhouse gas concentrations and plateauing growth in anthropogenic aerosol emissionsIncreased radiative cooling and reduced poleward sensible heat transport equally contributed to the Arctic precipitation changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]