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Aim: Seedling recruitment is a vital process for forest regeneration and is influenced by various factors such as stand composition, climate, and soil disturbance. We conducted a long‐term field experiment (18 years) to study the effects of these factors and their interactions on seedling recruitment. Location: Our study focused on five main species in boreal mixed woods of eastern Canada: trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), white spruce (Picea glauca), balsam fir (Abies balsamea), and white cedar (Thuja occidentalis). Methods: Sixteen 1‐m2 seedling monitoring subplots were set up in each of seven stands originating from different wildfires (fire years ranging from 1760 to 1944), with a soil scarification treatment applied to every other subplot. Annual new seedling counts were related to growing‐season climate (mean temperature, growing degree days and drought code), scarification, and stand effects via a Bayesian generalized linear mixed model. Results: Soil scarification had a large positive effect on seedling recruitment for three species (aspen, birch and spruce). As expected, high mean temperatures during the seed production period (two years prior to seedling emergence) increased seedling recruitment for all species but aspen. Contrary to other studies, we did not find a positive effect of dry conditions during the seed production period. Furthermore, high values of growing degree days suppressed conifer seedling recruitment. Except for white cedar, basal area was weakly correlated with seedling abundance, suggesting a small number of reproductive individuals is sufficient to saturate seedling recruitment. Conclusion: Our findings underscore the importance of considering multiple factors, such as soil disturbance, climate, and stand composition, as well as their effects on different life stages when developing effective forest management strategies to promote regeneration in boreal mixed‐wood ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much is still unknown about the growth and physiological responses of trees to global change at the northern treeline. We combined tree‐ring width data with century‐long stable carbon and oxygen isotope records to investigate growth and physiological responses of white spruce at two treeline sites in the Canadian Arctic to concurrent increases in temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca), and decline in sea ice extent over the past century. The tree‐ring records were assessed during three periods with contrasting climatic conditions: (a) the early 20th century warming, (b) the 1940–1970 cooling period, and (c) the anthropogenic late 20th century warming period. We found opposing growth trends between the two sites, but similar carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) trajectories. While tree growth (defined as basal area increment) increased at the site nearer to the Arctic Ocean during the 20th century following the rise in temperature and sea ice loss, growth declined after 1950 at the more interior site. At both sites, Δ13C slightly increased over these periods. However, trees showed a nonlinear response to increased ca, shifting after 1970 from a passive stomatal response (i.e., no changes in iWUE) to an active response (i.e., a moderate ∼12% increase in iWUE). Further, our isotope‐based findings do not support the idea that temperature‐induced drought stress caused the divergent growth trends at our treeline sites. This study thus highlights nonlinear and complex physiological and growth adjustments to concomitant changes in temperature, sea ice extent, and ca over the last century at the northern treeline. Plain Language Summary: In the last decades, Arctic ecosystems have experienced unprecedented warmer temperatures, higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and a decline in sea ice extent. However, it is still unknown how these changes in environmental factors have impacted tree populations at their northern distribution limits. Here, we examine how the growth and water‐use efficiency of white spruce trees have changed over the last century in response to warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, and sea ice decline at two treeline sites in the Canadian Arctic. We found that tree growth increased at the site nearer to the Arctic Ocean during the 20th century following the rise in temperature and sea ice loss, while growth declined after 1950 at the more interior site. At both sites, the water‐use efficiency of trees was stable until 1970. Following the rapid temperature and carbon dioxide increase since the 1970s, trees have become more efficient in using water. The contrasting growth trends found at our study sites highlight complex growth and physiological adjustments of white spruce trees to rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, sea ice extent, and carbon dioxide concentrations in the Arctic. Key Points: Complex growth and physiological responses of white spruce trees to changes in temperature and sea ice extent inferred from stable isotopesWhite spruce radial growth at Arctic latitudinal treeline decreased at an interior site and increased at a site closer to the Arctic OceanWhite spruce shifted from a passive to an active water‐use efficiency response to rising CO2 concentration over the 20th century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light availability drives vertical canopy gradients in photosynthetic functioning and carbon (C) balance, yet patterns of variability in these gradients remain unclear. We measured light availability, photosynthetic CO2 and light response curves, foliar C, nitrogen (N) and pigment concentrations, and the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) on upper and lower canopy needles of white spruce trees (Picea glauca) at the species' northern and southern range extremes. We combined our photosynthetic data with previously published respiratory data to compare and contrast canopy C balance between latitudinal extremes. We found steep canopy gradients in irradiance, photosynthesis and leaf traits at the southern range limit, but a lack of variation across canopy positions at the northern range limit. Thus, unlike many tree species from tropical to mid‐latitude forests, high latitude trees may not require vertical gradients of metabolic activity to optimize photosynthetic C gain. Consequently, accounting for self‐shading is less critical for predicting gross primary productivity at northern relative to southern latitudes. Northern trees also had a significantly smaller net positive leaf C balance than southern trees suggesting that, regardless of canopy position, low photosynthetic rates coupled with high respiratory costs may ultimately constrain the northern range limit of this widely distributed boreal species. Summary statement: Canopy gradients in photosynthetic capacity of white spruce diminish at high compared to low latitudes. Low carbon balance in high latitude trees may determine the extent of northern treeline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events in many boreal forests. Trees are sessile organisms with a long generation time, which makes them vulnerable to fast climate change and hinders fast adaptations. Therefore, it is important to know how forests cope with drought stress and to explore the genetic basis of these reactions. We investigated three natural populations of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska, located at one drought-limited and two cold-limited treelines with a paired plot design of one forest and one treeline plot. We obtained individual increment cores from 458 trees and climate data to assess dendrophenotypes, in particular the growth reaction to drought stress. To explore the genetic basis of these dendrophenotypes, we genotyped the individual trees at 3000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and performed genotype-phenotype association analysis using linear mixed models and Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. Growth reaction to drought stress differed in contrasting treeline populations. Therefore, the populations are likely to be unevenly affected by climate change. We identified 40 genes associated with dendrophenotypic traits that differed among the treeline populations. Most genes were identified in the drought-limited site, indicating comparatively strong selection pressure of drought-tolerant phenotypes. Contrasting patterns of drought-associated genes among sampled sites and in comparison to Canadian populations in a previous study suggest that drought adaptation acts on a local scale. Our results highlight genes that are associated with wood traits which in turn are critical for the establishment and persistence of future forests under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate warming is expected to increase tree growth and productivity, substantially altering ecological function and boundaries in northern ecosystems. Although climate largely determines the range and growth of trees in any biome, variations in microsite conditions can influence growth on a finer scale. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are found in most terrestrial ecosystems and are considered ecosystem engineers through their denning activities. Added soil nutrients from prey remains, feces, and urine could benefit tree growth on dens in subarctic regions by alleviating soil nutrient limitations. We examined growth in white spruce (Picea glauca) trees growing on eight red fox dens and paired control sites at the Arctic treeline. Radial growth was 55% higher for trees on dens than on control sites between 1897 and 2017, despite similarities in tree ages and densities. This enhanced growth was more pronounced in younger trees, consistent with the decrease in growth with age among all trees. By promoting tree growth near the treeline, red foxes may act as hotspots for tree reproduction. Although the impacts on tree growth largely depend on the spatial distribution of dens, predators can create distinct microhabitats across the landscape, leading to increased vegetation productivity, persisting over many decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

White spruce (Picea glauca) spans a massive range, yet the variability in respiratory physiology and related implications for tree carbon balance at the extremes of this distribution remain as enigmas. Working at both the most northern and southern extents of the distribution range more than 5000 km apart, we measured the short‐term temperature response of dark respiration (R/T) at upper and lower canopy positions. R/T curves were fit to both polynomial and thermodynamic models so that model parameters could be compared among locations, canopy positions, and with previously published data. Respiration measured at 25°C (R25) was 68% lower at the southern location than at the northern location, resulting in a significantly lower intercept in R/T response in temperate trees. Only at the southern location did upper canopy leaves have a steeper temperature response than lower canopy leaves, likely reflecting canopy gradients in light. At the northern range limit respiration is nearly twice that of the average R25 reported in a global leaf respiration database. We predict that without significant thermal acclimation, respiration will increase with projected end‐of‐the‐century warming and will likely constrain the future range limits of this important boreal species. Summary Statement: White spruce (Picea glauca) needle respiration at the northern limit of the species range is three times higher than at the southern range limit (when measured at 25°C). This high carbon cost likely challenges tree survival and contributes to the location of the northern treeline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce–fir (Picea–Abies) forests of the North American Acadian Forest Region are at risk of disappearing from the northeastern United States and Canada due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to predict changes in this critical transitional ecosystem in the past, but none have addressed how seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation interact to influence tree species abundance. Inferences have also been limited by contemporary inventory data that could not fully characterize species ranges because they either, (1) only sampled species occurrence after large‐scale human disturbance and settlement, or (2) did not span critical geopolitical boundaries (e.g., the US–Canadian border) that intersect the focal species' range(s). Here, we built new SDM models to better assess the bioclimatic distribution of four spruce–fir species and to test the importance of seasonal climate interactions. We compiled an extensive database of tree occurrence and abundance from recent (~1955–2012) and historical time periods (1623–1869) to model current species distributions and to predict how these might change under future climate. We found that including historical tree data in our SDMs revealed previously unrecognized suitable habitat along the southern edge of species' contemporary ranges. Random forest models predicted occurrence with high accuracy (area under receiver operator curve >0.98), and the seasonal climate variables that emerged as most important for these cold‐adapted species all included interactions that reflected sensitivity to colder temperatures, and preferences for wet weather concentrated in the winter months. Under moderate climate warming (representative concentration pathway 6.0), the northeastern United States retained additional suitable habitat when historical data were included through 2060 for three of the four species: red spruce (Picea rubens), black spruce (Picea mariana), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea), while white spruce (Picea glauca) habitat contracted into Canada. In contrast, future predictions from models that used contemporary data alone forecast extirpation for all four species from the northeastern United States. Overall, these findings highlight that prediction of species ranges in transitional ecosystems that span geopolitical boundaries and gradients of intense land use are improved when historical data and seasonal climate interactions of both temperature and precipitation variables are incorporated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Merging robust statistical methods with complex simulation models is a frontier for improving ecological inference and forecasting. However, bringing these tools together is not always straightforward. Matching data with model output, determining starting conditions, and addressing high dimensionality are some of the complexities that arise when attempting to incorporate ecological field data with mechanistic models directly using sophisticated statistical methods. To illustrate these complexities and pragmatic paths forward, we present an analysis using tree‐ring basal area reconstructions in Denali National Park (DNPP) to constrain successional trajectories of two spruce species (Picea mariana and Picea glauca) simulated by a forest gap model, University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced—UVAFME. Through this process, we provide preliminary ecological inference about the long‐term competitive dynamics between slow‐growing P. mariana and relatively faster‐growing P. glauca. Incorporating tree‐ring data into UVAFME allowed us to estimate a bias correction for stand age with improved parameter estimates. We found that higher parameter values for P. mariana minimum growth under stress and P. glauca maximum growth rate were key to improving simulations of coexistence, agreeing with recent research that faster‐growing P. glauca may outcompete P. mariana under climate change scenarios. The implementation challenges we highlight are a crucial part of the conversation for how to bring models together with data to improve ecological inference and forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]