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Climate change is predicted to have dramatic effects on Arctic freshwater ecosystems through changes to the abiotic template that are expected to influence biodiversity. Changes are already ongoing in Arctic systems, but there is a lack of coordinated monitoring of Arctic freshwaters that hinders our ability to assess changes in biodiversity.To address the need for coordinated monitoring on a circumpolar scale, the Arctic Council working group, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, established the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program, which is an adaptive monitoring program for the Arctic centred around four ecosystem themes (i.e., Freshwater, Terrestrial, Coastal, Marine). The freshwater theme developed a monitoring plan for Arctic freshwater biodiversity and recently completed the first assessment of status and trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity.Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater has compiled and analysed a database of Arctic freshwater monitoring data to form the first report of the state of circumpolar Arctic freshwater biodiversity. This special issue presents the scientific analyses that underlie the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater report and provides analyses of spatial and temporal diversity patterns and the multiple‐stressor scenarios that act on the biological assemblages and biogeochemistry of Arctic lakes and rivers.This special issue includes regional patterns for selected groups of organisms in Arctic rivers and lakes of northern Europe, Russia, and North America. Circumpolar assessments for benthic diatoms, macrophytes, plankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish demonstrate how climate change and associated environmental drivers affect freshwater biodiversity. Also included are papers on spatial and temporal trends in water chemistry across the circumpolar region, and a systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge that demonstrates its potential to support assessment and conservation of Arctic freshwaters.This special issue includes the first circumpolar assessment of trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity and provides important baseline information for future assessments and studies. It represents the largest compilation and assessment of Arctic freshwater biodiversity data to date and strives to provide a holistic view of ongoing change in these ecosystems to support future monitoring efforts. By identifying gaps in monitoring data across the circumpolar region, as well as identifying best practices for monitoring and assessment, this special issue presents an important resource for researchers, policy makers, and Indigenous and local communities that can support future assessments of ecosystem change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic tundra consists of diverse habitats that differ in dominant vegetation, soil moisture regimes, and relative importance of organic vs. inorganic nutrient cycling. The Arctic is also the most rapidly warming global area, with winter warming dominating. This warming is expected to have dramatic effects on tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics. We completed a meta‐analysis of 166 experimental warming study papers to evaluate the hypotheses that warming changes tundra biogeochemical cycles in a habitat‐ and seasonally specific manner and that the carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles will be differentially accelerated, leading to decoupling of elemental cycles. We found that nutrient availability and plant leaf stoichiometry responses to experimental warming were variable and overall weak, but that both gross primary productivity and the plant C pool tended to increase with growing season warming. The effects of winter warming on C fluxes did not extend into the growing season. Overall, although warming led to more consistent increases in C fluxes compared to N or P fluxes, evidence for decoupling of biogeochemical cycles is weak and any effect appears limited to heath habitats. However, data on many habitats are too sparse to be able to generalize how warming might decouple biogeochemical cycles, and too few year‐round warming studies exist to ascertain whether the season under which warming occurs alters how ecosystems respond to warming. Coordinated field campaigns are necessary to more robustly document tundra habitat‐specific responses to realistic climate warming scenarios in order to better understand the mechanisms driving this heterogeneity and identify the tundra habitats, communities, and soil pools most susceptible to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The centennial response of land‐terminating glaciers in Greenland to climate change is largely unknown. Yet, such information is important to understand ongoing changes and for projecting the future evolution of Arctic subpolar glaciers, meltwater runoff, and sediment fluxes. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology, and sedimentology of prominent moraine ridges and the proglacial areas of ice cap outlet glaciers on the Qaanaaq peninsula (Piulip Nunaa). We determine geometric changes of glaciers since the neoglacial maximum; the Little Ice Age (LIA), and we compare glacier behaviour during the LIA with that of the present day. There has been very little change in the rate of volume loss of each outlet glacier since the LIA compared with the rate between 2000 and 2019. However, the percentage of each glacier that is likely composed of cold‐based ice has increased since the LIA, typically by 20%. The LIA moraines comprise subrounded, striated, and faceted clasts that evidence subglacial transport, and outwash plains, flutes, kames, and eskers that evidence subglacial motion and meltwater within temperate ice. Contrastingly, contemporary ice margins and their convex ice surfaces comprise pronounced primary foliation, ephemeral supraglacial drainage, sediment drapes from thrust plane fractures, and an absence of open crevasses and moulins. These calculations and observations together lead us to interpret that these outlet glaciers have transitioned towards an increasingly cold‐based thermal regime despite a warming regional climate. Thermal regime transitions control glacier dynamics and therefore should be incorporated into glacier evolution models, especially where polythermal glaciers prevail and where climate is changing rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2 emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink‐to‐source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming rapidly, leading to an acceleration of carbon exchange across tundra and boreal ecosystems. These changing flows of carbon can be difficult to detect using traditional observing systems. We propose that measurement systems which observe Arctic ecosystems continuously from a quasi‐GEO orbit can more accurately detect these important changes, such that unexpected and dangerous feedbacks to climate warming can be monitored and accounted for. Key Points: The Arctic Fourier Transform Spectrometer Investigation (AURORA) mission concept addresses GHG sampling limitations in the ArcticAURORA uses a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) to increase repeat frequency, and a panchromatic iFTS for SWIR O2 and CO2 bands (0.7–2.5 μm)Simulation experiments show potential benefits of increased sampling frequency for grid scale detection of early cold season CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate‐related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub‐Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck‐affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine‐derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird‐free Arctic ponds—these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird‐derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice‐free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub‐Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced rapid change associated with warming since the 1970s. The rapid retreat of the terrestrial cryosphere can release a large amount greenhouse gas from the permafrost regions into the air, and the sea ice decline will affect the CO2 and CH4 balance in the ocean. Changes in the Arctic provide feedback mechanisms that can also impinge on the global ocean's thermohaline circulation. During the past years, the overall natural processes in the Arctic have been studied although the magnitude and timing of carbon release from the cryosphere changes require further investigation. However, few studies have been conducted to link the natural and social systems in the Arctic. Scientists and policymakers must consider the coupled Arctic land, ocean, and social systems in their decisions for coping with climate change. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming more than twice the global average. The Arctic is connected to the rest of the world through the climate system, it appears to be the first domino to fall, with the other dominoes pointing south. The Arctic science community and the people who live in the Arctic have known the rapid Arctic changes for a long time. It has been recognized that the cryosphere components are declining, and the carbon cycle in both the land and ocean will be affected by the cryosphere shrinkage. Despite some scientific breakthroughs, there are still major knowledge gaps in the Arctic carbon cycle. The policymakers at this stage are not only asking for more data about the Arctic changes, they also need scientific suggestions to cope with Arctic changes. The science community should work together to draw a full picture of the Arctic changes that include both natural and social systems. Key Points: The changing Arctic carbon cycle can affect global climateMore field observation should be carried out in the Arctic land and oceanThe Arctic land, ocean, and social domain should be considered as a system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 100 countries now have a military drone programme comprised of either armed or unarmed systems. These drones are used to project power, fulfil national security objectives and signal political interest in disputed regions. As the climate crisis transforms parts of the Arctic, considerable investment is taking place in remote systems that can both monitor for 'unwanted guests' and engage in military activity. In this context, drones, specifically unarmed military drones, are becoming the favoured technology of Arctic states. Denmark, Iceland, Canada, Russia and the United States are all now using drones to protect national interests, symbolise sovereignty and enable a watchful eye to be cast on neighbours and newcomers, such as China. This article argues that while the introduction of military drones may be seen as stabilising in the first instance, in the longer term these systems are likely to escalate tensions, leading to a new drone‐based security dilemma. Of particular note is the 'virtual' net of detection being built by Russia. This net is reliant on drones, in partnership with additional military infrastructure and hardware, and has been developed by Moscow to establish a military capacity to detect and respond to external actors across and perhaps beyond the Russian Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite multiple advances in the understanding of the water cycle intensification in a warmer climate, climate models still diverge in their hydrological projections. Here we constrain annual runoff projections over individual and aggregated Arctic river basins. For this purpose, we use two ensembles of global climate models and two statistical methods: a regression scheme assuming similar runoff sensitivities at interannual versus climate change timescales, and a Bayesian method where models are used to derive a posterior runoff response conditioned on historical observations. While both techniques are shown to narrow model uncertainties, more or less substantially depending on rivers, the Bayesian method is less sensitive to the choice of the model ensemble and is more skillful when tested with synthetic observations. It has also been applied over the whole Arctic watershed, showing so far a limited narrowing of the inter‐model spread, but its skill will further improve with increasing climate change. Plain Language Summary: Despite considerable progress in understanding the intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming, projections of changes in the various components of the continental water balance remain highly model‐dependent. This is particularly the case for the evolution of runoff, which remains very sensitive to the way atmospheric and continental processes are represented. Here we evaluate and compare two statistical methods to constrain climate projections of annual runoff at high latitudes via available or synthetic observations. Our Bayesian method, based on historical observations, is found to be more robust than a previous method based on observed interannual climate variability. It underlines the importance of having reliable flow reconstructions to constrain runoff projections and of using empirical observational constraints with caution, as they are likely to lead to over‐confident projections. Key Points: Runoff sensitivity to temperature depends on the considered timescaleObservational constraints based on interannual variability can thus lead to overconfident projectionsObservational constraints based on historical trends can be effective if such trends are driven by human emissions of greenhouse gasses [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Root‐associated fungi play a critical role in plant ecophysiology, growth and subsequent responses to disturbances, so they are thought to be particularly instrumental in shaping vegetation dynamics after fire in the boreal forest. Despite increasing data on the distribution of fungal taxonomic diversity through space and time in boreal ecosystems, there are knowledge gaps with respect to linking these patterns to ecosystem function and process.Here we explore what is currently known about postfire root‐associated fungi in the boreal forest. We focus on wildfire impacts on mycorrhizal fungi and the relationships between plant–fungal interactions and forest recovery in an effort to explore whether postfire mycorrhizal dynamics underlie plant–soil feedbacks that may influence fire‐facilitated vegetation shifts.We characterize the mechanisms by which wildfire influences root‐associated fungal community assembly. We identify scenarios of postfire plant–fungal interactions that represent putative positive and negative plant–soil feedbacks that may impact successional trajectories. We highlight the need for empirical field observations and experiments to inform our ability to translate patterns of postfire root‐associated fungal diversity to ecological function and application in models.We suggest that understanding postfire interactions between root‐associated fungi and plants is critical to predict fire effects on vegetation patterns, ecosystem function, future landscape flammability and feedbacks to climate. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming‐driven growth of tall woody vegetation in the Arctic has the potential to accelerate climate change through multiple positive feedbacks. Local‐scale evidence suggests that large herbivores limit this vegetation shift, but there is uncertainty at larger, regional scales whether current herbivory pressure is a major top‐down control on ecosystem structure and functioning. Across a 67,000 km2 region of the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, we integrated satellite remote sensing with a novel data set mapping the migrations of herds comprising 151,000 domesticated reindeer. Where reindeer numbers varied over space, higher reindeer herbivory pressure was consistently linked with lower coverage of tall woody vegetation. Within areas dominated by this vegetation type, productivity and climate were increasingly decoupled where reindeer density was higher. Our spaceborne fingerprint detection suggests that large herbivores, at current population densities, counteract Arctic vegetation responses to climate change over large spatial scales. Plain Language Summary: Large herbivores influence tundra vegetation via their grazing, trampling, and nutrient inputs from feces and urine. However, the extent of these impacts remains unclear as we seek to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climate change. Using maps that we developed that record the annual summertime movements of herds comprising 151,000 domesticated reindeer managed by indigenous Nenets herders, we assessed whether reindeer had an effect on vegetation productivity and composition across a 67,000 km2 region of the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, an area about the size of the Republic of Ireland. Analyses of satellite data comparing areas with varying reindeer density consistently showed that higher reindeer herbivory pressure was limiting the coverage of tall woody vegetation and its expansion in response to warming. This effect had not been observed previously at such a large spatial scale and was significant enough to be detected from space. Our findings demonstrate that reindeer have a substantial impact on ecosystem structure and functioning, which likely has implications for the carbon cycle and energy balance within the Arctic and beyond. Key Points: Integrating maps of migrations of indigenous‐managed reindeer herds with remote sensing enabled analysis of large‐scale herbivory impactsAreas on the Yamal Peninsula with higher reindeer herbivory pressure consistently had lower coverage of tall woody vegetationThe productivity of tall woody vegetation was less sensitive to climate variability where reindeer density was higher [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio‐tracked frogs. Water loss (R2 = 0.67) and surface temperature (R2 = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model‐based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi‐aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data‐limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed‐effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual‐level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow‐through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This piece reviews the contributions of this special edition noting comments and insights into the rapidly changing politics of the Arctic. It highlights how the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on the High North, its peoples and its security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the "best" CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step‐like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. Plain Language Summary: The rate of Arctic warming varied in time, while the rate of global warming was nearly constant over the period 1960–2020. This led to a variable Arctic Amplification (AA) defined as a ratio of the Arctic warming trend to mean global warming trend. In addition, the Arctic experienced sudden changes in the rate of warming with step‐like changes in annual mean Arctic Amplification around the years 1986 and 1999. Climate models do not capture the second observed sharp increase of the AA. We suggest that the first AA increase around 1986 is primarily due to external forcing (increasing concentration of carbon dioxide) while the second sharp increase around 1999 is dominated by internal climate variability which current models cannot capture accurately within the time scale of the physical phenomena. Key Points: Annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) within the period 1970–2020 changed in steep steps around 1986 and 1999. It reached values over 4.0Even those CMIP6 models best at reproducing the AA did not reproduce the second sudden increase near 1999We conjecture that the first AA sharp increase is due to external forcing, while the second is due to internal climate variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent satellite observations confirm that the Arctic is absorbing more solar radiation now than at the start of this century in response to declining Arctic sea ice and snow covers. Trends in the solar radiation input to Arctic ocean and land surfaces now each exceed interannual variability at the 95% confidence level, although all‐sky trends have taken 20%–40% longer to emerge compared to clear‐sky conditions. Clouds reduce mean solar absorption and secular trends over both land and ocean, but the effect of clouds on natural variability depends on the underlying surface. While clouds increase the time needed to unambiguously identify trends in nearly all Arctic regions, their masking effects are strongest over oceans. Clouds have extended the time to emergence of already observed clear‐sky trends beyond the existing 21 years Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System record in half of eight Arctic seas, supporting the need for continued satellite‐based radiative flux observations over the Arctic. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic has been rapidly changing in response to rising greenhouse gases, including dramatic sea ice loss. Sea ice is bright and reflects most sunlight that hits it, so when it melts more sunlight is absorbed at the surface, leading to more surface melting or warming. However, when viewed from satellites in space, it can be difficult to distinguish between bright clouds and the bright surface. Because clouds also reflect a large amount of incoming sunlight, they reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the surface. Without clouds, far more sunlight would have been absorbed into the Arctic over the last two decades. The presence of clouds has also made it more difficult to observe how the amount of sunlight being absorbed is changing. Nevertheless, the Arctic has been evolving so quickly that even with the masking effect of clouds we can measure trends in absorbed sunlight using 20 years of satellite observations, a relatively short amount of time compared to most other climate changes. Key Points: Significantly more solar radiation is being absorbed into the Arctic now than at the turn of the centuryClouds increase the time needed to detect trends in solar absorptionClouds exert the largest masking effect over oceans and areas with the greatest sea ice loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change and is projected to experience the most warming this century of any world region. We review the societal aspects of these current and projected changes. Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge holders living in communities across the Arctic have detected unprecedented increases in temperature, altered precipitation regimes, and changing weather patterns, documenting impacts on terrestrial and marine environments. These local observations situate climate change as one of multiple interacting stressors. Arctic societies have exhibited resilience to climate change, but vulnerabilities are emerging at the nexus of changing environmental conditions and socioeconomic pressures. Infrastructure is highly susceptible to permafrost thaw, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, compounded by the age of infrastructure, maintenance challenges, and cost of adapting. Livelihoods and cultural activities linked to subsistence harvesting have been affected by changes to wildlife, with coping mechanisms undermined by long‐term processes of land dispossession and landscape fragmentation. Reduced sea ice coverage and changing ice dynamics are creating opportunities for enhanced shipping, oil and gas production, and deep‐water fisheries. Legal, infrastructural, economic, and climatic challenges are expected to constrain such developments, with concerns over the distribution of potential benefits. Adaptation is already taking place in some sectors and regions, with efforts directly targeting climate impacts and also addressing underlying determinants of vulnerability. Barriers and limits to adapting are evident. Research that develops projections of future climate impacts is advancing, but studies examining the implications of such changes for communities or economies remain in their infancy. This article is categorized under:Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long‐term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long‐term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986–1989 (n = 157), 1995–1998 (n = 159) and 2015–2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986–1989 and 1995–1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015–2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State‐of‐the‐art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea‐ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a simple model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatures. This model accounts for 70%–95% of the intermodel variance, with the majority of the spread arising from present‐day biases. The remaining spread arises from intermodel differences in Arctic warming, with some contribution from differences in the local sea‐ice sensitivity. Using observations to constrain the projections moves the probability of an ice‐free Arctic forward by 10–35 years when compared to unconstrained projections. Under a high‐emissions scenario, an ice‐free Arctic will likely (>66% probability) occur between 2036 and 2056 in September and between 2050 and 2068 from July to October. Under a medium‐emissions scenario, the "likely" date occurs between 2040 and 2062 in September and much later in the 21st century from July to October. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice coverage has declined substantially over the past few decades and is projected to continue to decline over the next century. These projections, however, are marred by large uncertainties which arise primarily due to differences between climate models. In this study, we use a simple model that emulates the future evolution of Arctic sea ice as simulated by climate models to explain where this uncertainty comes from. We show that biases in simulating present‐day Arctic sea ice contribute most of the uncertainty, with differences in the simulated amount of Arctic warming from climate models contributing much of the rest. We use observations to constrain our simple model and show that under a high emissions scenario it is likely the Arctic will be free of sea ice in September sometime between 2036 and 2056 and from July to October sometime between 2050 and 2068. We also show that the emissions pathway impacts the length of ice free summers in the Arctic, indicating a low‐emissions pathway will reduce the likelihood of seeing ice‐free Arctic summers. Key Points: A model relating future sea‐ice area (SIA) to present SIA and local sea‐ice sensitivity is used to explain the intermodel spread in Arctic SIA projectionsBiases in simulating present‐day SIA contribute most to the spread, with model differences in Arctic warming contributing the restUnder a high‐emissions scenario, the Arctic will likely be ice‐free in September between 2036 and 2056 and from July to October between 2050 and 2068 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]