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Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20–39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared to other settings, COVID-19 infection and death rates in Hong Kong were very low until 2022, due to top-down interventions (e.g. quarantines, 'mask mandates') and community activation. However, in addition to these epidemiological circumstances, Hong Kong has also undergone significant social and political change stemming from the social movement beginning in 2019 through the enacting, and aftermath, of the National Security Law. We draw on registered birth and marriage data from 2015 through 2021 to explore how fertility and nuptiality changed after the social movement followed by the first four waves of the COVID pandemic. We describe how fertility and marriage rates have changed in Hong Kong and to what extent the changes are associated with the social movement and the COVID pandemic. We further disaggregate the fertility and nuptiality trends by Hong Kong-born and non-Hong Kong-born population, with a specific focus on migrants from the Mainland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]