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In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health and the environment are complex components of the countries, influenced by several factors, especially transport, and economics. Thus, this paper assesses the role of transportation and economic complexity in the environment and public health for the Organization for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) countries from 2001 to 2020. This study also focuses on the relationship between transport and economic complexity with environmental and healthcare expenditures. Precisely, transport and economic activities stimulate healthcare expenditures through multiple channels. The current study employs the STIRPAT model to investigate the association with transportation, economic complexity, transport–carbon intensity, and healthcare expenditure. Besides, the current research confirms the plausible cross-sectional dependency across countries, and it adopts a second-generation technique. Analytical findings suggest that transportation-carbon intensity is positively and significantly associated with healthcare expenditures. Healthcare and transport–household expenditures increase transport–carbon intensity (TCI) by 75% and 45%, respectively, in the long run. In the contrast, TCI and transport–household expenditures have also a remarkable impact on healthcare expenditures and are estimated approximately 95% in the long run. Moreover, economic growth also upsurges TCI and healthcare expenditures through multiple economic activities. Besides, transport–household expenditures (THE) drastically impact transport–carbon intensity and healthcare expenditures (HEX) through passenger traffic (PTF). Diagnostic upshots unveil that the joint effect of THE and PTF increases TCI and HEX by 4 and 3%, respectively. Finally, findings recommend some policy implications and future research directions for the countries based on empirical outcomes. Countries should regulate economic activities to reduce transport carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activity across firms and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8000 firms, including both small and large firms, in 23 emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, matched with 2019 Enterprise Surveys data. It finds that during the COVID-19 crisis, smaller firms were hit harder, and economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strong competition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries with a weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firms during the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows that government support measures implemented in response to the crisis may have adverse effects on competition and productivity growth since support went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation. Plain English Summary: The COVID-19 crisis had a profound impact on firms. Firms which were more productive pre-crisis fared relatively better, particularly in countries with a more competitive business environment. Using survey data for about 8000 firms, including both small and large firms, in 23 emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, the paper finds that during the COVID-19 crisis, smaller firms were hit harder, and economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strong competition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries with a weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firms during the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows that government support measures implemented in response to the crisis went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation. Thus, government support measures during the COVID-19 crisis may have had adverse effects on competition and productivity growth. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policymakers to phase out support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excessive spatial concentrations of populations and economic activities are problematic in many countries and regions. To solve these problems, decentralisation and other related policies are often considered and implemented. In this paper, we explore how these policies can be more effective by detecting their missing elements from the standpoint of location economics. The methodological framework used is as follows. For decentralisation to work effectively, it may be important that less hierarchically ordered regions attain sufficient comfort or amenities for local producers and households. However, those regions may face managerial problems with their infrastructure and cultural facilities in efficiency terms, which can be caused by changes in the situation, such as a decline in population size associated with ageing. In such a situation, policies intended to solve problems in cooperation with neighbouring regions will play an important role. However, as an economic zone expands, several existing administrative and economic-activity-related functions are dispersed or merged, which may raise problems associated with physical accessibility. A simple location model is built to investigate how rural areas can overcome these issues by employing a framework of central place theory as well as a transportation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper examines the impact of local economic activity on criminal behavior. We build on existing research by relaxing the identification assumptions required for causal inference, and estimate the impact of local economic activity on recidivism. Methods: We use the fracking boom as a source of credibly exogenous variation in the economic conditions into which incarcerated people are released. We replicate and extend existing instrumental variables analyses of fracking on how many released offenders return to state prison seperately from aggregate crime and arrests. Results: Our instrumental variables estimates imply that a ten thousand dollar increase in the value of per capita production is associated with a 2.8% reduction in the 1-year recidivism of ex-offenders at the county level. Improved labor market conditions, specifically an increase in wages for young adults, may explain a non-negligible fraction of the reduction in recidivism associated with economic booms. In contrast, we replicate existing work finding that fracking increased aggregate measures of crime and arrests. Conclusion: Increased economic opportunity appears to have a different impact of overall crime than on recidivism. This suggests that the relationship between economic opportunity and offending may be conditioned by local social ties. Further research examining how social connections and labor markets affect individual criminal behavior is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge is regarded as a key driver of entrepreneurial activity and economic performance. Nevertheless, empirical evidence suggests that the extent to which knowledge spills over and translates into entrepreneurial activity differs tremendously across different regions. These inconsistent results expose the knowledge spillover mechanism as a concept that is not well understood. This paper is one of the few studies to propose an explanation for the seemingly inconclusive results that we find in the literature by considering the role of infrastructure in knowledge spillovers. Using a dataset of 67 countries, we examine the impact of different types of physical and digital infrastructure on the knowledge spillover mechanism. Our empirical results reveal that the extent to which knowledge translates into entrepreneurial activity largely depends upon the development of specific types of digital and physical infrastructure. This paper provides valuable insights into the knowledge spillover mechanism by identifying certain factors that influence the extent to which knowledge translates into entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, it has important policy implications for countries to promote entrepreneurial activity and economic performance by developing certain types of physical and digital infrastructure. Plain English Summary: This study shows that the physical and the digital infrastructure of a country play an important role in knowledge spillover entrepreneurship. We identify certain types of infrastructure that have a pronounced impact on knowledge spillover entrepreneurship. Specifically, we identify the quality of the railroad infrastructure, the quality of electricity supply, and access to fixed broadband internet to be conducive to entrepreneurial activity. Understanding which factors encourage knowledge spillover entrepreneurship is important because knowledge spillover entrepreneurship contributes to the economic performance of a country. Our findings also provide policymakers with suggestions on how to increase the level of knowledge spillover entrepreneurship within their country by highlighting the importance of specific types of physical and digital infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on CDS, stock returns, and economic activity in the US and the five European countries that have been most affected: the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The sample period covers the period from 11 March 2020 to 19 February 2021. In the empirical analysis, first, we estimate benchmark linear VAR models and then, given the evidence of parameter instability, TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility, which are ideally suited to capturing the changing dynamics in both financial markets and the real economy. The linear VAR responses of CDS to the number of COVID-19 cases are positive and statistically significant, whilst those of electricity consumption are insignificant and those of stock returns vary across countries in terms of their sign and significance. The results from the TVP-VAR analysis indicate that the effects of shocks on the system variables was more pronounced during the initial stages of the pandemic and then decreased in the following months. Specifically, there was a positive impact of the number of COVID-19 cases on CDS and a negative one on stock returns and economic activity, the latter two being interlinked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the impact of highways on the distribution of economic activities between urban agglomerations and peripheral regions in the European Union. In doing so, I use an empirical strategy based on the land use theory employing disaggregated economic and infrastructure data. To address endogeneity, I apply an IV strategy exploiting non-local highway construction as a source of exogenous variation. I find that highways contribute to the diffusion of urban economic activities into surrounding areas, reducing the income gap between European agglomerations and peripheries. Reduced-form estimations suggest that the gap would have been nearly 3% higher in 2020 if the highway networks of European countries had remained at the level of 1990. The study concludes that transportation infrastructure policies can alleviate regional income disparities, increasing economic convergence between urbanised and less urbanised areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persons with disabilities face substantial barriers that impede their integration and participation in social and economic activities. Households with disabled members may be vulnerable to poverty due to the extra cost of living with a disability. However, there exists a knowledge gap in the magnitude of the extra cost of disabilities in sub Saharan Africa. Using data from a nationally representative household survey, this paper estimates the extra cost of disabilities in Ghana. The paper further examines the welfare effects of households with persons with disabilities. Based on the standard of living approach, we estimate the extra cost to households with a person with disability to be 26% of annual household consumption expenditures. Adjusting for the extra cost of poverty, the incidence of poverty increases from 38.5 to 52.9% amongst households with a disabled member. Our findings suggest the need to improve the efficiency of support programs to persons with disabilities to mitigate the extra costs of disabilities and reduce their vulnerability to poverty. In addition, enhancing access to economic opportunities and social services for persons with disabilities will be imperative to improve their quality of life and dignity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To ameliorate the efficiency of urban green innovation is the key to realizing green economic transition. This paper constructs a Super-NSBM model with green patents as the intermediate output, uses this model to assess and decompose the green innovation efficiency of 284 Chinese cities, and finally analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics and influential factors. The research result showed the gap of urban green innovation total efficiency among various regions in China is narrowing, while the spatial differentiation of decomposition efficiency is deepening. This means that a spatial collaborative innovation division pattern of "Eastern Region R&D + Southwest and Northeast Region Transformation" has gradually formed. In the meantime, this paper also found that the spillover effects of the urban green innovation total efficiency and phased efficiency all can form a significant demonstration effect on the surrounding areas. Finally, financial agglomeration, industrial structure, knowledge sharing, economic activity, higher education, opening, and environmental regulations may affect urban green innovation total efficiency and phased efficiency, and this effect has regional heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a quantile vector autoregressive approach to compare the extent of connectedness between macroeconomic uncertainty and U.S. real activity in normal and extreme economic and financial conditions. Based on a database ranging from January 1960 to February 2023 and using the methodology of Jurado et al. (Am Econ Rev 105(3):1177–1216, 2015), we derive, first, eight real and financial uncertainty measures based on 134 macroeconomic indicators. Second, we examine the quantile connectedness among the eight estimated macroeconomic uncertainties and real activity. The results indicate that real activity is strongly (weakly) influenced by the extremely high (low) values of the real and financial uncertainty estimates, indicating asymmetric spillover effects of US macroeconomic uncertainties on real economic activity. Among the real and financial uncertainty estimates, the real output uncertainty blocks are the most important transmitters of shocks to real activity under looser economic and financial conditions. However, under tighter economic and financial conditions, higher output and income and stock market uncertainty blocks are the major spillover transmitters of shocks to real activity. Finally, connectedness between macroeconomic uncertainties and real activity exhibits the highest level during the recent COVID-19 pandemic outbreak at various quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the usefulness of the water-energy-food nexus in assessing the sustainability of an economy. All economic activity depends on its surrounding physical environment, and especially on the interconnection between these three essential resources. As a result, the nexus is a useful tool for detecting the economic risk of resource scarcity, optimising investments or resource use, and assessing the effects of economic policies or shocks such as climate change. The nexus approach is also useful for guiding policies towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We show that both the objective of each study and the scale on which it is conducted are factors worth considering when choosing the most suitable research methodology. We detected important challenges relating to the heterogeneity of the methods, scales and variables used, and therefore necessary measures nare suggested in order to homogenise the studies for their comparability and/or integration, both horizontally and vertically, or over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I argue that the political and economic domains are analogous for distributive purposes. The upshot of this conclusion is that because we normally think that an unequal distribution of votes is objectionable even if these inequalities are strictly necessary to improve the lives of less informed voters, so we should conclude that an unequal distribution of resources might be similarly objectionable even if strictly necessary to make the worse off better off. Leveling down economic resources is therefore sometimes morally permissible. I consider and reject three types of objections to this view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of protectionism and intellectual property right (IPR) protection in host markets on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CB M&As). CB M&As have become important vehicles for firms to expand into foreign markets and acquire strategic assets. In recent years, the topic has attracted significant scholarly interest. Recently, many countries have enacted protectionist measures to protect local firms and jobs. Consequently, the impact such measures have on economic activities is under debate in the literature. This study leverages the vital context of CB M&As undertaken by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) between 2011 and 2017 in 49 host countries. The findings indicate that host country IPR protection has a much more substantial and positive impact on CB M&A activities undertaken by USA MNEs than the protectionist policies of the host country by itself. The findings further suggest that, although local protectionism, by itself, does not play a significant role in CB M&As, its presence strengthens the positive effect of IPR protection on CB M&A activities in the host country, thereby supporting the contingent role of such protection. These findings have important implications for research, practice, and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2015, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world committed to phasing out from all its products and processes worldwide any substances declared by the European Chemicals Agency to be of very high concern. Since then, extended practical experience was gained in the phasing out of substances of concern. Results: We report in detail on a company-wide programme to phase out substances of concern, the challenges of and the approaches to the phase-out. The paper provides concrete ideas of how to address the legitimate urge to remove substances of concern from economic activities in a holistic way, taking into account the broad diversity of aspects of sustainability. The present paper also reviews the regulatory and societal environment in which substances of concern are being phased out. The paper attempts to contribute to the ongoing discussion of how to improve the chemicals policy in Europe and beyond. Conclusions: Phasing out substances of concern, substance selection for new products and processes, and the avoidance of regrettable substitutions while maintaining the pace of genuine innovation will stay a major challenge for our industry in the years ahead whereby not only toxicological and ecotoxicological hazards have to be considered in the selection and deselection of substances, but also other sustainability criteria characterising the entire life cycle will play an increasingly important role. Legislators and industry need to pay more attention to how this is implemented while avoiding slowing down innovation, making essential products unnecessarily more expensive, and further pushing material production out of highly regulated countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank's role in financial stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual and econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases of the business cycle and econometrically we employ Bayesian VARs. We document that a shock that increases credit to non-financial sector leads to a persistent decline in economic activity. In addition, we examine whether the behavior of financial variables is useful in signaling the 2007–2009 recession. The answer is positive as our BVAR generates early warning signals pointing to a sustained slowdown in growth. We propose that the expansion phase of the business cycle can be subdivided into an early and a late expansion. Based on this distinction, we show that if the Fed had raised the policy rate when the economy moved from the early to late expansion, it could have mitigated the severity of the 2007–2009 recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Recession led to a large decline in economic activity throughout the entire United States with significant variation in its severity across regions. Our paper examines the role of economic freedom in explaining these differences at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level. We use the Stansel (2013; 2019) MSA-level economic freedom index to analyze the relationship between institutional quality and economic outcomes throughout the crisis period. Using a panel dataset of 382 MSAs from 2002 to 2012, we find that economic freedom is associated with enhanced economic outcomes – lower unemployment rates, more employment per 100 persons, and higher income per capita. This holds true even when examining a cross-section of MSAs using data from the crisis period alone. We supplement these findings with a matching analysis where we find that MSAs that experienced meaningful increases in economic freedom in the five-year period before the Great Recession (2002–2007) had quicker recoveries – in terms of unemployment rates and income – than their matched counterfactuals from 2007 to 2012. Overall, our findings suggest that economic freedom did "lighten the blow" from the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we address the problem of estimating of Municipal-level of Mexican economic activity indicators (IAEM in Spanish) by using different data sources. We build on the preliminary estimations of López-Pérez and Corona (Real Datos Espac Rev Int Estad Geogr 1(3):102–123, 2020), however because of the shortcomings of standard data sources, such as national accounts and economic censuses, in terms of update frequency, this study enhances preliminary estimations with nighttime lights data. We rely on the statistic relation between economic activity with nighttime lights intensity, and the uncorrelatedness of the latter with the measurement error in the preliminary estimations to produce an estimate of true economic growth, as has been described, among others, in and Mendoza (Empir Econ 57(3):971–990, 2019). Our results are interesting in three ways: (i) develops a practitioner's guide for estimating IAEM for all Mexican municipalities since 1993, (ii) for users and analysts of economic information provides detailed results of economic activity evolution for some municipalities, (iii) represent a novel application pursuant Big Data in economics framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a simple simulation model to study the relation between the nature of knowledge and the architecture of economic systems. The market and the firm are different mechanisms for coordinating economic activity in a system where knowledge is widely dispersed. While the market solves coordination problems by decentralizing decision-making, the firm solves coordination problems by centralizing knowledge. The market incurs the cost of finding potential exchange partners and agreeing on terms of trade, while the firm incurs the cost of centralizing dispersed knowledge. The market therefore has an advantage over the firm in coordinating activities in which knowledge is difficult to centralize. The nature of knowledge involved in an economic activity influences not only the choice of the institution through which it is coordinated but also the internal structure of the institution. More specifically, the more hierarchical the firm, the better it is at using changing knowledge, but the worse it is at using knowledge which is difficult to transfer from one individual to another. Therefore, the number of layers in the hierarchy of the firm is influenced by the rate at which knowledge changes relative to the difficulty associated with communicating it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humanity inhabits a discursive landscape that stimulates our imaginations, guides and influences our behaviour, shapes our ideas of what is possible, and governs what we perceive as normal. The collective human imagination is currently dominated by a discourse of neoliberal capitalism that contributes to global sustainability challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss by framing nature as a resource to be exploited in service of perpetual growth in economic activity. Transformation towards flourishing, sustainable futures will not be possible without the transformation of this dominant discourse. Alternative discourses exist but little is known about how to proactively and ethically pursue the transformation of dominant discourses. In response, this paper develops a conceptual framework to guide an ethical practice of meaning-making towards discursive transformation. It introduces 'discursive entrepreneurship', defined as the practice of creating, performing, and transforming memes, stories, narratives, and discourses to promote a desired structure of the discursive landscape. Normative strategies for discursive entrepreneurship are identified from a systematic review of recent literature on how social-ecological stories, narratives, and discourses evolve and change. The paper clarifies the often-inconsistent terminology used to define these ideational concepts, arguing for a nested relationship between discourses, narratives, stories, and memes. Further, it shows how discursive entrepreneurs can engage in iterative strategies of deconstruction, reframing, construction, performance, connection, and collaboration to increase the chances that their meanings will reach audiences, be heard by them, be retold, and perhaps contribute to the emergence of inclusive, life-affirming discourses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically analyzes the non-linear effect of economic activities on ecological balance indicators that estimate the balance between economies' pressure on nature and the biologically productive resource areas affected by human activity and the earth's ecological carrying capacity. In measuring this balance, ecological balance sheet indicators are divided into four sub-components: cropland, fishing grounds, forest area, and grazing land. The sample of the study consists of the EU-15 countries over the period 1995–2016. To render the study robust with respect to econometric issues such as potential endogeneity bias, cross-country heterogeneity, non-linearity, and time instability, the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method is adapted. The empirical findings reveal that up to a certain threshold level, economic activities do not affect the ecological balance as nature can compensate for the resulting externalities, but beyond this threshold, waste accumulation and pollution exceed nature's capacity to absorb. Consequently, these findings do not empirically support the EKC hypothesis with an inverted U-shaped curve and suggest that active environmental policies are needed to improve the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring the state of the economy in a short time is a crucial aspect for designing appropriate and timely policy responses in the presence of shocks and crises. Short-term confidence indicators can help policymakers in evaluating both the effect of policies and the economic activity condition. The indicator commonly used in the EU to evaluate the public opinion orientation is the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). Nevertheless, the ESI shows some drawbacks, particularly in the adopted weighting scheme that is static and not country-specific. This paper proposes an approach to construct novel composite confidence indicators, focusing on both the weights and the information set to use. We evaluate these indicators by studying their response to the policies introduced to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in some selected EU countries. Furthermore, we carry out an experimental study where the proposed indicators are used to forecast economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in promoting economic growth is not sufficiently examined at the empirical level for developing countries, including Egypt in particular. Hence, this paper is the first attempt to empirically examine the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in promoting Egypt's output growth utilizing a time-series data set over the time-period (1960–2019). The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long run and short run effects of fiscal and monetary policies on Egypt's output growth under a modified version of the St. Louis equation model. The study finds that both monetary and fiscal policies have a positive impact on the economic activity in the long run. However, while monetary policy seems to be more effective than fiscal policy in stimulating the growth rate of nominal GDP, fiscal policy tends to have a larger, more predictable and faster impact than monetary policy on the real economic activity. Accordingly, Egypt's policymakers are advised to follow the Keynesian's prescription in terms of increasing the reliance on fiscal policy compared to monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic stability in both the short run and long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. It has three contributions: (i) use of genuine real-time data, (ii) implementation of a new method for the revision analysis that relates the revision of the nowcast to not only new observations but also data revisions, and (iii) a benchmarking of the nowcast to a market consensus forecast at monthly forecasting horizons. Our nowcast's forecast accuracy is comparable to that of the consensus at most, but not all, monthly horizons. Our revision analysis of the March 2011 earthquake finds the nowcast reacting to a steep post-quake decline in car production. In contrast, the consensus hardly budged, most likely because the decline was correctly viewed as temporary. The onset of COVID-19 triggers the consensus to take a precipitous descent. The nowcast, despite timely red flags from "soft" (i.e., survey-based) indicators, does not respond immediately in full, because it took a month or more for "hard" (i.e., non-survey-based) indicators to register sharply reduced economic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development (SD) strives to protect the environment and promote an inclusive prosperity. However, achieving this partly rests on the effectiveness of financial development (FD) among other factors. On the one hand, FD fosters eco-friendly investment, financial inclusion and economic growth and thus leads to SD. On the other hand, FD may result in financial instability, social inequality and environmental degradation by fueling unsustainable economic activity and deter the achievement of SD. Given the quandary, this study attempts to investigate the causal effect of FD on SD for 143 countries during period 1990–2020, where SD is represented by adjusted net savings (ANS), and a new index, using the principal component analysis, is constructed to measure FD. Results of the panel vector autoregression method reveal that FD has a causal relationship with SD, which is unidirectional in general; however, the causality between financial market index and ANS is bidirectional. In general, the results also suggest that FD is essential for SD; nevertheless, policymakers must monitor the possible downside of FD that may undermine its contribution to sustainability. The study bears important policy implications, and as far as the knowledge goes, this is the first paper that explains the comprehensive FD–SD causality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) is a viable economic activity for many people, in Zimbabwe, who have depended on it for survival during economic hardships. Due to climate change, agriculture cannot be depended upon for survival and people are increasingly depending on ICBT for a livelihood. Despite a crucial role in providing for many, ICBT has been negatively affected by changes in the fiscal economy, specifically, the adoption of virtual cash in a time of cash crisis. This paper examines the impact of the virtual cash economy on the livelihood of participants in ICBT in Gweru, Zimbabwe. Qualitative data was collected and subjected to inductive analysis. Results revealed a positive livelihood outcome for traders prior to the virtual cash economy, followed by a negative outcome when virtual cash payments increased. The paper presents a framework that highlights the importance of cash, to ensure the success and sustainability of ICBT in the city of Gweru. The paper concludes with the recommendation that ICBT should be integrated into policy to address identified issues that affect economic benefits of ICBT, to ensure its sustainability in the provision of essential livelihood needs in line with Sustainable Development Goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. Based on price level evidence, this paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on economic activity continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in the absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The shift in tastes toward higher quality goods, luxuries and imports stemming from the per capita windfall for the survivors in the mid-fourteenth century plays a substantial part in the analysis. So does England's little influence on the relative prices of its imports relative to home goods. The separate effects of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages on the price level all also receive major attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on urban vitality tends to focus on the built environment. This paper argues that some important processes in shaping vitality may be overlooked without examining the intensity and diversity of economic and human activities. Using newly developed spatial big data and adopting the methods of multi-indicator measurement and spatial analysis methods, we analyzed the pattern of urban vitality in Chongqing, a provincial city in western China and, on this basis, evaluated the creation and maintenance of urban vitality from the economic and human activities perspective. Our findings indicate that the impacts of economic and human activities are positive and significant. Among the three intensity and diversity indicators, economic intensity and population density show an effect on urban vitality stronger than that of economic diversity. However, economic diversity has the strongest superposition or interactive effect, and is thus an important foundation dynamic. The positive effect of population density on urban vitality is largely a result of Chongqing's jobs-housing balance. The case of Chongqing highlights the importance of topographic features, historical inheritance, large-scale migration, and cultural activities in shaping the distinctive vitality pattern of a city. This study contends that the creation and maintenance of urban vitality can not be fully explained without incorporating the impacts of economic and human activities. It contributes to a comprehensive measurement of urban vitality and enriches its connotations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is frequently assumed that the inheritance of wealth undermines economic activity. If such an assumption is valid, the expected wave of bequests may have a negative impact on labour market activity of heirs, what might further weaken the financing of state pension systems. This paper provides a detailed review of the empirical findings on the associations of inheritances with labour market activity, that is labour force participation status and working hours, and presents own analyses based on the survey of health, ageing, and retirement in Europe. We find that the receipt of an inheritance is not related to labour force participation in general. Inheritance expectations even have a small, but statistically significant positive effect on remaining in the labour force for men. Women who expect an inheritance tend to reduce working hours, but the effect of having received an inheritance is not significant, neither for men nor for women. We conclude that the receipt of an inheritance will not affect labour market decisions, so that the expected wave of bequests will not undermine active ageing policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PM2.5 is a bad output of China's improved industrialization and rapid economic development, which seriously threatens people's health and greatly hinders the sustainable economic development. Studying the socio-economic driving factors of PM2.5 emissions is of great significance for reducing air pollution and realizing green development. Therefore, based on the simultaneous consideration of space technology differences and time technology progress, this paper constructs an index decomposition analysis-production-theoretical decomposition analysis decomposition model under the global meta-frontier-production theory. Then, we decompose the PM2.5 emission concentration of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2018 into nine driving factors and discuss the impact of different factors from the national, regional, and provincial levels. The results reveal that economic activity is still the main factor to promote the increase of PM2.5 emission, but its effect decreases, while the inhibitory effect of catch-up effect on PM2.5 concentration increases gradually. In addition, economic activities have the greatest impact on the East China, while the time catch-up effect has a more significant impact on the Central and Western China. Moreover, the influence of energy intensity effect, space technology catch-up effect, and time technology catch-up effect is gradually increasing, which have become important factors to inhibit the PM2.5 emission. Based on the above results, we put forward relevant policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes output gap dispersion as a measure of economic synchronization patterns across the world economies. Utilizing a novel, multivariate quantile causality testing methodology and data from a set of 45 advanced and emerging nations, we present evidence of significant causal effects of U.S. monetary policy measures over synchronization patterns across the advanced and emerging economy business cycles, even after controlling for various risk and uncertainty proxies. While U.S. monetary policy actions cause significant interdependence in business cycles across advanced economies, we find that the Fed's policy decisions also contribute to uncertainty in industrial output patterns. U.S. monetary policy actions are also found to have significant causal effects on the dispersion of emerging market output gaps at low quantiles, suggesting that policy actions by the U.S. Fed drive synchronized economic activity across emerging nations. The findings have significant implications, particularly for policy makers in emerging economies, when it comes to the coordination of their domestic as well as regional monetary policies in response to monetary policy shocks from the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corruption is often a source of contentious debate, covering different areas of knowledge, such as philosophy and sociology. In this paper we assess the effects of corruption on economic activity and highlight the relevance of the size of the government. We use dynamic models and the generalised method of moments approach for a panel of 48 countries, and as a measure of corruption the Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, from 2012 to 2019. We find a significant adverse effect of corruption on the level and growth of GDP per capita, but that large governments benefit less from reducing corruption. Furthermore, developing economies, regardless of government size, benefit less from reducing corruption, while government size is not sufficient to explain the influence of corruption on economic activity, although the level of effectiveness of public services is crucial. Finally, our findings suggest that private investment is a potential transmission channel for corruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality lays out a grand blueprint for carbon emission reduction and climate governance in China. How to reduce energy consumption is the key to achieving this goal. The economic development and energy consumption show a very large gap at the provincial level, and this paper divides China into six regions (North, Northeast, East, Mid-South, Southwest, and Northwest) and analyzes the dynamic changes and reveals the driving factors that have affected CO2 emission changes from 1997 to 2017. Then, the driving forces including energy intensity, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic activity, and population scale were discussed employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) based on provincial panel data. The results show that CO2 emissions from energy consumption show an upward trend, from 4145 Mt in 1997 to 13,250 Mt in 2017, with an annual average growth rate of 1.06%; coal consumption is the main source of CO2 emission. The regions with the highest proportion of CO2 emissions are the East and North, which account for 50% of total emissions. China's CO2 emissions from energy consumption, coal consumption, and output have shown significant spatial autocorrelation at the provincial scale. According to coal consumption, energy consumption CO2 emissions are divided into three stages: phase I (1997–2002), the increase in CO2 emissions in six regions was attributed to significant and positive impacts of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale, the effects of which exceeded those of the energy structure and energy efficiency; phase II (2003–2012), the economic activity effect on CO2 emissions was highest in the East region, followed by the North and Mid-South regions; phase III (2013–2017), the East, Mid-South, and Southwest regions of China were dominated by the positive effects of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale. The major driver of CO2 emissions is economic activity; the energy efficiency effect is an important inhibitory factor. Regional economic development and energy consumption in China are unbalanced; we conclude that differentiated emission reduction measures should be of particular concern for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the macroeconomic and welfare implications of the distribution of the social security tax between employees and employers using a general equilibrium framework. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium model for the average of OECD countries and find that increasing the share of social security contributions paid by employers has a positive effect on economic activity and welfare. Whereas raising the employer's share increases the labor cost for firms and reduces the equilibrium gross wage, conversely, workers' net labor income increases, increasing employment, output, and welfare. The response of the economy to the change in the distribution of social security contributions between employees and employers depends on how the total labor tax wedge changes, which is also affected by the labor income tax and the consumption tax, as distortionary effects from one tax are not independent from the other taxes driving wages' purchasing power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a macroeconomic uncertainty index based on the multistage procedure that combines maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods proposed by Jurado et al. (Am Econ Rev 105(3):1177–1216, 2015). Our approach streamlines the computation of the macroeconomic uncertainty index by specifying a state-space model estimated by maximum likelihood that allows us to obtain in one step the parameters of the model, the dynamic factors, and the forecast errors of the macroeconomic variables used to construct the index. Moreover, we estimate stochastic volatility models on the forecast errors also by maximum likelihood using a density filter that proves to be faster than a Bayesian estimation. After showing that our methodology produces reasonable results for the USA, we apply it to compute a macroeconomic uncertainty index for Ecuador, becoming the first index of this kind for a small developing or middle-income country. The results show that the Ecuadorian economy is more volatile and less predictable during recessions. We also provide evidence that macroeconomic uncertainty is detrimental to economic activity, finding that the responses of non-oil output, employment in the formal sector, and consumer prices to macroeconomic uncertainty shocks are sizable and persistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of international state-building efforts on economic development in Somalia. Owing to non-existent or poor-quality national income accounts, we use satellite data capturing nightlight emissions to measure economic activity. Using the synthetic control method, we find that the establishment of the Transitional Federal Government in 2004 was associated with economic stagnation relative to the preceding years, when Somalia did not have a formal central government. The result remains whether we enter the total lights emitted from the country or the distribution of lights across the country. Our empirical findings are consistent with the idea that the exogenously imposed Transitional Federal Government destabilized the nation by creating inconsistencies with the informal institutions that had led to development during Somalia's statelessness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The green economy has gained worldwide attention, especially in the urban agglomerations where population and economic activities are highly concentrated. However, what kind of urban agglomeration spatial structure is more conducive to promoting the green economy? No clear conclusions have been made. To bridge this gap, by employing the data of 16 urban agglomerations in China in 2003–2017 and a comprehensive analytic framework including dynamic panel threshold model, this paper studies the impact of urban agglomeration spatial structure on the green economy and the three subsystems of green economy to shed light on which kind of urban agglomeration spatial structure better drives the green economy. The main findings are shown below: (1) urban agglomeration spatial structural evolution is closely related to green economy, while in the research period, most urban agglomerations are not located in the optimal range of the spatial structure that drives the green economy. (2) Towards polycentric spatial structure is contributive to green economic growth; however, the excessively polycentric could not benefit green economy. (3) The evolution of urban agglomeration spatial structure exerts heterogeneous impacts on the three subsystems when green economy is decomposed into economic subsystem, resources subsystem, and environmental subsystem. Towards polycentric is more conducive to the improvement of economic subsystem and resource subsystem, while the tendency to monocentric drives the environmental subsystem. (4) Lastly, the conclusions enlighten the urban agglomeration development planning and spatial mode for approaching a better performance in green economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This empirical study undertakes a rigorous examination of the environmental sustainability impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its member countries. Employing a robust difference-in-difference quasi-natural experimental technique, our analysis spans a panel of 69 countries, covering the years from 1990 to 2022. Our primary metric for assessing ecological strain is the total Ecological Footprint consumption (EFP), measured in global hectares, which encapsulates the ecological exhaustion resulting from economic activities. This study not only contributes to the growing body of literature on the BRI's economic, social, and environmental impacts but also distinguishes itself by providing experimental evidence of its environmental repercussions 10 years post-initiative commencement for member countries and 4 years for African countries in which the majority joined in 2018. Our findings reveal a significant increase in ecological footprint consumption among the BRI member countries after 2014, implying that participation in the BRI has contributed to heightened ecological depletion in these nations. Additionally, our analysis highlights the same impact for African countries, where ecological footprint consumption substantially escalated after joining the BRI in 2018. This pivotal discovery calls for the attention of not only the Chinese government, a driving force behind the BRI, but also all member countries partaking in this international collaboration. It signals a potential ecological deficit and future productivity impairment, urging stakeholders to reconsider and address the environmental ramifications of their endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Agriculture is Ethiopia's principal economic activity, employing the vast majority of the population, however, smallholder farmers in the country face long-standing challenges, including low levels of production, low income, and less credit use. This study aimed to analyze the impact of access to credit on crop productivity and income among small-scale farmers in the study area. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study from January 1st to 30th, 2022. Primary data were collected from purposely selected seven (7) kebele of the district based on potential users of agricultural credit. Then the impact was investigated by applying the propensity score matching technique. A Probit regression model was used to determine factors associated with credit use. The significance of the variables was decided at a 5% level of significance. Results: In our study, a total sample of 347 smallholder farmers were randomly selected, out of which 42.9% were credit-users while 59.1% were non-users. Regarding sources of credit use, Vision Fund was the most commonly used source of credit with 67.8% of users, followed by the Omo Microfinance institution with 22.1%. Sex of the farmer, age of the farmer, existence collateral, farm size, attitude towards risk, extension service, membership in credit institutions, road access, and number of total livestock units in tropical livestock units (TLU) had significant effects on credit use at a 5% level of significance. Moreover, the estimates showed that utilizing credit resulted in a rise in crop productivity in current market value and total yearly income by 19,302.44 and 18,009.63 respectively. Conclusion: Our study suggested that credit use had a considerable impact on crop productivity and total annual income. As a result, the study recommended that the government's rural finance policy agenda should prioritize opening different branches near farmers, improving credit usability, and providing more training programs to smallholder farmers to improve their skills and help reduce the problems that impede their use of agricultural credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical experience suggests that a sustained rise in per capita incomes and improvement in employment conditions is not attainable without a structural transformation that moves surplus labour from agriculture and other informal economic activities to higher productivity activities in the non-farm economy. In this paper, I analyse India's performance from a cross-country comparative perspective, estimating the growth semi-elasticity of structural change. Using a cross-country panel regression, I estimate the effectiveness of growth in moving workers away from agricultural and informal activities as compared to other developing countries at similar levels of per capita income. I show that the performance in pulling workers out of agriculture is as expected given its level and growth of GDP per capita, but the same is not true for pulling workers out of the informal sector. I also propose the following five indicators that need to be kept track of when evaluating the growth process: the growth elasticity of employment, the growth semi-elasticity of structural change, the growth of labour productivity in the subsistence sector, the share of the organised sector in total employment and the workforce participation rate. Comparing these indicators across periods, states, regions or countries, allows us to understand which sets of policies have worked better than others to effective improvements in employment conditions. And taken together the indicators allow us to set structural change targets as well as to say whether the current pattern of growth is going to be sufficient to meet those targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30% from 17 February to 12 March, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped 40%. From 23 March to 9 April, stocks recovered half their losses and mobility fell further. From 9 April to late May, both stocks and mobility rose modestly. This dynamic plays out across the 35 countries in our sample, with notable departures in China, South Korea and Taiwan. The size of the global stock market crash in reaction to the pandemic is many times larger than a standard asset-pricing model implies. Looking more closely at the world's two largest economies, the pandemic had greater effects on stock market levels and volatilities in the USA than in China even before it became evident that early US containment efforts would flounder. Newspaper-based narrative evidence confirms the dominant—and historically unprecedented—role of pandemic-related developments in the stock market behavior of both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although high-resolution gridded climate variables are provided by multiple sources, the need for country and region-specific climate data weighted by indicators of economic activity is becoming increasingly common in environmental and economic research. We process available information from different climate data sources to provide spatially aggregated data with global coverage for both countries (GADM0 resolution) and regions (GADM1 resolution) and for a variety of climate indicators (total precipitations, average temperatures, average SPEI). We weigh gridded climate data by population density, night-time light intensity, cropland, and concurrent population count – all proxies of economic activity – before aggregation. Climate variables are measured daily, monthly, and annually, covering (depending on the data source) a time window from 1900 (at the earliest) to 2023. We pipeline all the preprocessing procedures in a unified framework, and we validate our data through a systematic comparison with those employed in leading climate impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay between urban centers and peri-urban villages plays a pivotal role in rural development, particularly in the economic dimension. Analyzing these relationships and their influence on the progress and prosperity of peri-urban villages, coupled with capacity building, empowerment, and the integration of urban-rural management, is essential to reduce disparities and promote spatial justice, aligning with the sustainable development of rural areas. This study aims to assess the effects of Zanjan city's economic drivers on the livability quality of Do Asb and Payin Kouh, two peri-urban villages situated in Zanjan city. Employing a descriptive-analytical and practical approach, the study's statistical population comprises the aforementioned villages in Zanjan city. A sample of 219 households was selected from among the sample population based on Cochran's formula. Data collection involved both library research and fieldwork, including the use of questionnaires. Descriptive and inferential statistics (multivariate regression) were employed for data analysis, along with descriptive statistics (averages) and geographic information systems to analyze land use changes. The research findings unveiled a robust correlation (0.87) between the quality of life in peri-urban villages and the economic drivers of Zanjan city. This indicates a significant and positive relationship between Zanjan city's economic drivers (independent variable) and the quality of life in peri-urban villages (dependent variable). Among the examined variables, communication flow for purchases, with a coefficient of 0.28, contributed most to the variance analysis of the quality of life in peri-urban villages. In contrast, the investment flow of urban residents in village economic activities and the flow of money exchange had relatively lower coefficients of 0.13 and 0.14, respectively. Thus, the research underscores the considerable impact of Zanjan's economic drivers on enhancing the quality of life in peri-urban villages and highlights the pivotal role of rural-urban links in fostering sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though the literature on unregistered economic activity is growing at an increasing rate, we commonly encounter simple ordinary least squares methods and panel regressions, largely ignoring the recent rapid developments in machine learning methods. This study provides a new approach to more accurately estimate the size of the non-observed economy using machine learning methods. Compared to two currency demand-based models used to estimate the size of the non-observed economy, we show that a Random Forest algorithm can more accurately estimate the demand for currency, which is known to provide a fair estimation of the unregistered economic activity. The proposed approach shows superior forecasting capabilities compared to the current state-of-the-art linear regression-based methods dedicated to estimating non-observed economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a well known fact that economic development and distance to the equator are positively correlated variables in the world today. It is perhaps less well known that as recently as 1500 C.E. it was the other way around. The present paper provides a theory of why the 'latitude gradient' changed sign in the course of the last half millennium. In particular, we develop a dynamic model of economic and physiological development in which households decide upon the number and nutrition of their offspring. In this setting we demonstrate that relatively high metabolic costs of fertility, which may have emerged due to positive selection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator, would work to stifle economic development during pre-industrial times, yet allow for an early onset of sustained growth. As a result, the theory suggests a reversal of fortune whereby economic activity gradually shifts away from the equator in the process of long-term economic development. Our empirical results give supporting evidence for our hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a large scale within-country analysis of the effect of language future time reference (FTR) on self-employment using individual-level data from Switzerland, a country characterized by a long-standing multilingualism and a large share of immigrant population. We test the hypothesis that speakers of languages where future tense marking is not obligatory in prediction contexts (defined as weak FTR) may have a closer perception of future rewards and be more willing to become self-employed, a choice that reflects future orientation. We perform an epidemiological analysis which consistently indicates that long-term immigrants who speak weak FTR languages are between 2 and 4 percentage points more likely to be self-employed compared to speakers of strong FTR languages, net of unobservable ancestral cultural traits, districts of destination's characteristics, and linguistic features other than FTR. We find that the effect is largest when the main language of daily use is the mother tongue, but the effect is also significant when the main language is learnt later in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) epidemic model into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents' mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting and being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. The continuum of rational forward-looking agents coordinates on the Nash equilibrium of a discrete time, finite-state, infinite-horizon Mean Field Game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for the search of an equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations. We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic and we discuss policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population displacement is one of the most common consequences of disasters, and it can profoundly affect communities and territories. However, gaining an accurate measure of the size of displacement in the days and weeks following a major disaster can be extremely difficult. This study uses aggregated Call Detail Records as an inexpensive and efficient technique to measure post-disaster displacement in four Italian regions affected by repeated earthquakes in 2016–2017. By comparing post-disaster mobile phone count with a forecast computed before the earthquake hit, we can compute an index of change in the presence of mobile phones (MPE). This measure, obtained thanks to advanced analytical techniques, provides a reliable indication of the effect of the earthquake in terms of immediate and medium-term displacement. We test this measure against census data and in combination with other datasets. Looking into available data on economic activities and requests for financial support to rebuild damaged buildings, we can explain MPE and identify significant factors affecting population displacement. It is possible to apply this innovative methodology to other disaster scenarios and use it by policymakers who want to understand the determinants of population displacement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]