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The Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains (HDM) are recognized as two global biodiversity hotspots, harboring the world's richest alpine flora. However, to what extent the distribution of alpine plants here is affected by climate change remains largely unknown. Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) are perennial medicinal herbs mainly distributed in the Himalaya-HDM region. In this study, we used bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species. Our results revealed that the geographical distribution of the studied Bergenia species is primarily influenced by precipitation and elevation. By 2090, the three Bergenia species are expected to show contrasting range changes. The western Himalayan alpine species Bergenia stracheyi is expected to expand its range with 21.93 and 17.36% under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and moderate (SSP2-4.5) climate change scenario, respectively, while its distribution will shrink by 5.26% under the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). The Himalayan mid-elevation species B. ciliata is expected to expand its range from 142.42 to 157.14%. In contrast, the distribution range of the east Himalaya-HDM alpine species B. purpurascens is expected to shrink with 34.88 to 47.24%, with most of the habitats in the southeast chains of the HDM at lower elevation summits being lost. In addition, all three Bergenia species are projected to shift their ranges to higher elevations in response to temperature increases. Overall, we conclude that alpine plants may be more vulnerable to climate change than their congeners at lower elevations, supporting the "nowhere to go" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed climate change leads to the variations in the phenology, physiology, and biochemistry of grape berries, to a shift in the distribution of the grape plant areas and, as a result, to a change in the specialization of associated regions. Using the agroclimatic indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impact on viticulture, a comprehensive assessment of the grape growth conditions, potential quality of wine, and the climate-related risks in the Crimea and Donbass (on the example of Sevastopol and Artemovsk) over two 30-year periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) has been carried out. The results have shown a significant change in climatic conditions: an increase in heat availability in both regions and a decrease in frost susceptibility in the south of Donbass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is very important for the distribution of plant resources, especially for crops. Angelica plants have a long history of use and significant crop resources in China, whose rhizomes are extensively used in medicine and food. In this paper, 1599 georeferenced herbarium records were analyzed using DIVA-GIS, and the ecological distribution and richness of the current and future distribution simulation were analyzed using the MaxEnt model. The results show that they are from 32 provinces in China. Among these provinces, Sichuan, Gansu, and Yunnan have the largest number of herbariums. According to the MaxEnt model simulation, it is found that the precipitation in the warmest season, annual precipitation, and the driest monthly precipitation are the foremost bioclimatic variables that control the distribution of eight selected Angelica plants (A. biserrata, A. gigas, A. laxifoliata, A. likiangensis, A. longicaudata, A. omeiensis, A. polymorpha, and A. valida). It can be seen from the potential distribution map that the suitable growth areas of A. polymorpha and A. valida have increased, while the suitable growth areas of the six species of Angelica have decreased in varying degrees, 18.24%, 20.01%, 9.91%, 53.16%, 10.06%, and 12.64% respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the Angelica plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is closely related to the distribution of plant resources. Cerasus serrulata is an important plant resource in China. The study on the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable areas of C. serrulata is conducive to the protection and development of C. serrulata. In this paper, the distribution information of 238 Chinese Cerasusserrulata plants was processed by DIVA-GIS. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the current and future distribution, and the ecological distribution and richness of Cerasus were analyzed. The results showed that the Cerasus serrulata was widely distributed in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces, mainly in the low and middle elevation areas of 10 to 1200 m. Based on this model, the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the precipitation of the driest month, and the mean temperature of the coldest were the most significant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of C. serrulata. In the future, climate change may lead to a slight increase of 2.31% in the area of suitable habitat for Cerasus serrulata, while the optimal habitat will decrease from 20.81 to 14.55%. Therefore, conservation measures should be taken to protect these precious resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by − 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the most important elements affecting the distribution of species, and it is expected that the distribution of species will be widely influenced by climate change. In plants, edaphic factors also play a special role along with climate in determining the distribution range. The current study aimed to predict the future distribution of the Persian manna (Astragalus adscendens), an endemic perennial shrub in Zagros Mountains of Western Iran. For this purpose, two sets of static (i.e. edaphic and physiographic) and dynamic (i.e. climatic) data and an ensemble approach were used to develop two edaphic-physiographic and climatic models. Current and future suitability maps are representative of the climatic and the edaphic-physiographic niches of A. Adscendens that were obtained based on climatic suitable areas filtered by edaphic-physiographic model. The filtered map has less suitable habitats compared to the climatic model. Three dynamic variables (mean temperature of wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, temperature annual range) and two static variables (altitude and volumetric fraction of coarse fragments) were identified as the most important factors in determining the habitat of A. Adscendens. The importance of altitude was greater than latitude in maintaining or losing suitable habitats under different climate change scenarios, suggesting that the species will not have range expansion or northward shift due to no significant shift in latitude and longitude. Results revealed a sharp decline in the suitable habitats in such that 67% and 91% of the current habitat may be lost by the year 2050 and 2070, respectively. Area reduction was more extreme in future scenarios with the higher level of CO2 emission. Range contraction of A. Adscendens will increases the risk of extinction. This study provides insights into the response of mountain plants, especially range restricted species, to climate change, revealing major dimensions of plant niche. Therefore, developing habitat management and conservation plans to preserve the predicted habitats of such species are required to preserve the predicted sustainable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change. Tree species that are expanding their distribution in response to climate change could be hindered or facilitated by disturbances. Here the authors analyse forest inventory data from the western US to test the hypothesis that wildfire can facilitate climate-induced range shifts in trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]