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with the introduction of the euro as the domestic currency, economies have faced inflationary pressures caused by price convergence towards higher levels. During the last period of significant negative shocks from the environment, by entering the euro area, the negative effects of the likelihood of inflation caused by the introduction of the euro may be absent. the aim of this paper is to prove that inflation caused by joining the euro area will not materialize due to the negative effects of external shocks. A panel analysis with a fixed effects model was conducted for two models. Model 1 represents the countries that introduced the euro before the escalation of the global financial crisis and Model 2 represents the countries that introduced the euro after the development of the global financial crisis. the research confirmed that due to current negative external shocks and rising long-term interest rates in financial markets, the effect of inflation due to the introduction of the euro will be absent among EU members that will adopt the euro as a common currency in the next few years. The results of the research contribute to the scientific prediction of business and financial trends. The creators of macroeconomic models and monetary policy can use the results to define measures, instruments and activities more precisely for achieving and maintaining macroeconomic balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the convergence of tax systems in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) over the period 1995–2018. Due to the increasing impact of tax competition, we have focused on income taxes, in particular, corporate ones. We have identified the factors that influence the taxation system and trends in income taxation in the CEECs by adapting the hidden Markov model approach. We find that many CEECs have reduced income taxation in the analysis period, mainly by lowering tax rates. Corporate income taxes have also decreased in many CEECs in the same period; however, the reverse has been observed too. Both convergence and divergence have been identified among the CEECs over the period considered. The speed of these processes based on the used variables varied depending on both exogenous and endogenous factors. These factors have been diagnosed as being specific to the periods of tax reforms, i.e., before and after accession to the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to ascertain corporate investment reaction in bank-dependent companies in times of crisis. Our investigation covers the differences in corporate investment reaction due to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–2021. We utilized panel data of companies present on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the GFC and COVID-19 crisis—932 firm-year observations. We found a negative relationship between bank dependence (static ratio) and corporate investment, but a statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. We also found a positive relationship between bank dependence (dynamic ratio) and corporate investment, but statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. Additionally, we found that during the COVID-19 crisis, the level of corporate investment was at its lowest level, but the biggest drop was noticeable during the GFC when compared to the pre-GFC period. Our article contributes to the existing research by being part of the research on corporate investment and capital structure. It consists of the research on one of the determinants of the corporate investment and capital structure decisions—macroeconomic turbulence manifested in economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effect of credit on monetary policy responses for different regimes in Turkey. To do so, the Taylor rule augmented with the credit gap is estimated by using a Markov regime switching model from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings identify two regimes: the low- and high-interest rate regimes. The prevalence of the former indicates policy authorities' growth priorities. Furthermore, differing responses across the regimes reflect that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has an asymmetric policy stance. In the low-interest rate regime, the monetary policy only significantly responds to inflation. In the high-interest rate regime, both inflation and credit have significant positive impacts on interest rate setting. This indicates that credit conditions affected the tightening of the monetary policy stance in Turkey despite the use of macroprudential tools after the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years more countries are moving their policy rates below zero thus posing questions needing to be researched regarding how global financial markets react to such changes. Our paper reviews what these changes mean for global financial markets, discussing that financial markets react the same way as they would if rates were lowered, asset prices increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While unemployment rates in Europe declined after the global financial crisis until 2018/2019, the incidence of long-term unemployment, the share of people who have been unemployed for >1 year to the total unemployed, remained high. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic could aggravate the long-term unemployment. This paper explores the factors associated with long-term unemployment in European countries using a panel of 25 European countries over the period 2000–2018. We find that skill mismatches, labor market matching efficiency, and labor market policies are associated with the incidence of long-term unemployment. Among the different types of active labor market policies, training and startup incentives are found to be effective in reducing long-term unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Public spending is a generator of economic growth as well as its components; this reality is more depicted in the era of the COVID-19 world pandemic where a recession in economic activities has touched all countries. Purpose: In this paper, we tried to study the impact of shocks in public expenditure on some macroeconomic variables in Algeria during the period (1970–2019). Research methodology: The VAR Structural models were used to study the response of these variables to shocks in public spending in Algeria. Results: The results of the modeling indicate a direct response of both exports and imports to a shock in the levels of public expenditure, but this response is relatively weak to the variable value of exports (especially in the short term), which is mainly due to the structure of the Algerian economy that is mainly dependent on the export of oil and gas, which in turn is mainly affected by international energy factors e.g. prices, supply, and demand. For the rate of inflation, there was an inverse response to shocks in the level of public spending. In the context of the global health and economic crisis, we will witness a further faltering of economic growth in Algeria. Novelty: Our contribution is a new feature of the application of the SVAR model in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic that focused on analyzing the impacts of public expenditure on exports and imports [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM model. The empirical results show that the natural rate of interest in the Macedonian economy has declined over time, which is similar to the findings for other countries. The decomposition of the natural rate suggests that the main driver for the decline is the slowdown of the Macedonian potential GDP growth in the period after the global economic crisis, although there are signs of its recovery at the end of the sample period. In addition, the results indicate that the monetary policy conditions in the Macedonian economy have been broadly accommodative from 2011Q4 onwards. The substantive conclusions are unchanged across the multiple models used in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to analyze the transmission of shocks from selected developed and Southeastern European stock markets to the stock market of North Macedonia. Using the Bae, Karolyi, and Stulz (2003) co-exceedance methodology, we find that the probability of contagion from the stock markets of United States, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Macedonian stock market increased during the Global Financial Crisis. Regarding the asset classes, we show that contagion is positively associated with the volatility of Eurostoxx50 index, while negatively with the return of the euro dollar exchange rate and the yield of the 10-year US Treasury Note. The results have important implications for portfolio diversification and the asset allocation decisions of investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low interest rates were introduced in the global economy to support the weak economic growth that followed the global financial crisis. In the real estate sector, low interest rates usually lead to a boom in investment and prices. This boom, however, is not spread throughout the economy, but rather concentrated in major cities. We demonstrate this phenomenon on the example of the office market in Warsaw (Poland). While it would be beneficial for the Polish economy to develop office space in smaller cities that have an insufficient supply of modern office space, investors have focused mainly on the capital. This has not only led to an increase in the cost of building land and construction, but has also pushed some relatively new existing office buildings off the market. We call such behaviour uncreative destruction and explain why it was possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the first time, we analyse the role of future topics in Bundestag speeches between 1949 and 2021 using computational linguistic methods. The results show that the discourse on future issues in the Bundestag rose sharply in parallel with the "Wirtschaftswunder" between the 1960s and 1990s. However, since the global financial crisis of 2008, the Bundestag has lost its future focus. An algorithmic content analysis explains this phenomenon: Recent Bundestag speeches deal more with the short-term challenges of multiple crises and less with long-term frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to strong empirical evidence from different markets, existence of value premium became a financial theory standpoint. Although previous studies found that value stocks beat growth stocks in bearish and bullish markets, during the GFC, value stocks underperformed growth stocks. Objectives: This paper aims to examine the performance of value and growth stock portfolios after the GFC. Subjects of our analysis are constituent companies of the DJIA index, out of which portfolios of large-cap value and growth stocks have been constructed and evaluated. Methods/Approach: We measure the performance of stock portfolios, which are created based on the naïve diversification rule and random weighting approach. Statistical testing includes Levene's homogeneity test, the Mann-Whitney U test, T-test, and the One-Sample T-test. Results: Growth stock portfolios outperform value stock portfolios after the GFC. The dominance of growth stock portfolios compared to value stock portfolios is significant, and the value premium disappears. Conclusions: Financial theory and investment management implications show that growth stocks have overtaken the dominance over value stocks since 2009. Causes might be in (1) expansionary monetary policy characterized by very low long-term interest rates and (2) high performance of the tech industry to which most growth stocks belong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Econometrics / Ekonometria is the property of Sciendo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Econometrics / Ekonometria is the property of Sciendo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of the study is to examine the impact of financial constraints and financial distress on cash holdings, both in normal and crisis times. We collected the 4,406 firm-year observations of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Our research shows that companies maintain higher cash holdings during a crisis than in a normal period. However, in contrast to our expectations, companies with financial difficulties (constraints and distress) have lower cash holdings both in normal and crisis times. The originality of our research lies in realizing that different sources of difficulties might overlap at the same time (external with internal). We also analyze how cash holdings react to a combined impact of difficulties of different natures (external and internal). We believe that cash holdings have recently increased their meaning as we face the situation of constant and increasing uncertainty: still ongoing COVID-19 crisis prolonged with Russian aggression on Ukraine and outburst of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European integration is obviously impeded by the national and nation-state idea that is still vigorous and motivates European Union (EU) member states' refusals to cede powers to the EU or subnational levels. Recent events like the global economic crisis, the Euro crisis, the migration crisis and the coronavirus pandemic have, however, demonstrated that it is not just the national idea and the nation state that appear to seriously hinder further integration, but that fundamental differences in cultural attitudes in different parts of Europe are also responsible. They can be traced back to earlier periods of history and a Europe that consisted of parts with very divergent economic, social and political attitudes. These disparities are difficult to equalize. The article highlights Europe's major cultural differentiation processes in history, hints at their current traces in economic, social and political attitudes and relates those attitudes to problems in European integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic problems of mortgage takers, especially in light of the global financial crisis, is a very important issue, both from the point of view of housing policy and the stability of the banking sector. The analysis of the situation of mortgagors is usually limited to determining the percentage of mortgages in default. We compared the revealed mortgage repayment problems among Poles (arrears) with the unrevealed ones (such as high housing cost burden, inability to bear unexpected expenses), which we defined as housing cost stress. Next, we compared these problems with those of tenants at market rates. We found that, although we observe only a small percentage of mortgagors who are in arrears with their housing costs in Poland (about 3%), a large proportion of borrowers (about half of them) are in a difficult financial situation. At the same time, we noticed that their situation is still better than that of market rent tenants, because only one in five renters did not experience problems with covering housing costs. Among tenants, singles were much more likely to suffer from housing cost stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The motivation for this article is the observation of political and private efforts to establish an EU-based rating agency as a counterweight to the three major agencies and observe other approaches to increase competition in the rating market. Objectives: This article aims to analyse the potential regulatory impact of the oligopo-listic situation on the European Union (EU) rating market in the regulation imposed on the agencies. Methods/Approach: Selected key figures are applied to observe if and how the dominance has changed. The different rating service range offered by the registered rating agencies in the EU is also considered in the analysis. Results: The re-search results show that new agencies potentially impact the EU rating market. While the three major rating agencies still dominate the market, they do so within a chang-ing environment. Conclusions: The employment of external ratings is significant in the financial sector. Ratings provide relevant information on the default risk of financial instruments and assess the solvency of issuers. The market for external ratings thereby can be classified as oligopolistic. Turbulences during the financial crisis of 2008 trig-gered stricter regulation of the credit rating agencies. Such regulation has now been in force for a good decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]